Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title? | Page 23 | Golden Skate

Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title?

plushyfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 27, 2012
Country
Hungary
Wow Page 30 already! The truth is so many skating fans either love him or hate him. ;) Evgeni at 30 y.o still RULES the world of figure skating. :rock:
Go on everyone. We are in the off-season. :popcorn:

Yes. In 2010 when Plush and the ISU didn't like each other too much, because of Vancouver, and later the ISU suspended him, Mr Cinquanta went to Plush's dressing room in Milano december of 2010, and they discussed the problems. Do you think Mr C would have done it with any other skater?:no:
And if anybody is a fan of another skater, would like him (36 gold and 5 silver)?

I think the only certain thing is that Evgeni's self-belief is unshakeable. He is not affected by anything. Mind-games don't work on him, pressure doesn't get to him, mistakes don't ruffle him. Whereas this new breed of men, the guys like Takahashi and Chan and so on, seem to be rattled very easily. One mistake turns into two. Or three. Or four. And suddenly, meltdown.

One of my favourite performances of Evgeni's is actually his Salt Lake City SP. Because ka-blam, he took a huge fall on the quad...and KILLED the rest of the program. Absolutely went all out and rocked the house. I just don't see too many skaters capable of that nowadays. Chan is like watching dominoes.

At any rate, we don't even know if Evgeni will be the one in Sochi. If he is fit, if his body survives, I'm sure it'll be him. But likewise, even the most ardent fans of his have to accept that it is just as much a possibility that this time might be one quad too far. That maybe this time, there won't be a glorious comeback, and it'll be someone else fighting for pride and glory in Sochi.

:yes:
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
A clean Chan or Fernandez would beat him, Takahashi and Hanyu, well..it depends on the PCS they receive and Ten definitely NO.

"if they are all clean"... plushenko's chance can be lower. But that is just a problem about potential. honestly, i tired about the question, "If skaters have all clean?"
As many people said here, if he is healthy, I think he would be the most consistency among the top skaters of these days.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
"if they are all clean"... plushenko's chance can be lower. But that is just a problem about potential. honestly, i tired about the question, "If skaters have all clean?"
As many people said here, if he is healthy, I think he would be the most consistency among the top skaters of these days.

Oh I agree, I think it comes down to scoring potential.

When was the last time Plushenko did a FS with two clean quads? Has he done so in the past decade? I think most of us, including him, acknowledge he'll need two clean quads to stay competitive for the podium... but it's been ages since he's done that.

If he's healthy, he does have good consistency, but jumps like his lutz and quad aren't as reliable as they've been in the past and he doesn't do the 3F (anyone know why?). But in terms of having more consistency over the field, you can't really base it off one competition, or even 2 if you count Russian Nationals. He can rely on the fact that the other guys have strong segments but don't always put them both together -- but come Sochi you'd have to imagine at least one of the top guys would put together a clean or close to clean competition. And to be fair to the other guys, in the past year, they've attempted more ambitious technical layouts, including SPs with quads, 2 quads and difficult series, and axels in the 2nd half, so their propensity for errors is greater (but that also boosts their scoring potential).
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
only the SS, it seems that is almost constant, the IN, TR, Ch, Pe-they vary from tournament to tournament. I don't think, Plushy's chance is so low..

Chan 2013 WCH-9.11
Plush2012ECH-8.89
Dai-2013WCH-8.54
Ten- 2013WCH-8.54
Javi-2013 WCH-8.43
Hanyu 2013 WCH-8.25

-------------
GPF 2013

Chan-9.11
Dai-9.0
Javi 2012 ECH-8.82
Hanyu-8.61

I don't think this past Worlds is a good example of assessing the strength of the field. All the top skaters really bombed (except Ten, who himself was lacklustre except for Worlds) either the SP, the LP or both. Takahashi for example won the GPF but came 6th at Worlds (and was lucky to, considering his technical issues). The GPF is probably a better assessment of what the guys are capable (even if there were falls and such, it wasn't as much of a disaster that Worlds was). It's difficult to assess what Plushenko would get for PCS using just one competition (Euros 2012, where Javier wasn't nearly as good as he is now, and he didn't compete against Chan/Takahashi/Ten/Hanyu). Just like we can't really assess what his PCS potential would be using his most recent competition - Euros 2013 - as an example. And, excluding Japan Open, Plushenko hasn't competed against Chan/Takahashi/Ten since the Olympics (four years ago), and has yet to compete against Hanyu, so we can only predict.
 

yaya124

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 27, 2011
I don't think this past Worlds is a good example of assessing the strength of the field. All the top skaters really bombed (except Ten, who himself was lacklustre except for Worlds) either the SP, the LP or both. Takahashi for example won the GPF but came 6th at Worlds (and was lucky to, considering his technical issues). The GPF is probably a better assessment of what the guys are capable (even if there were falls and such, it wasn't as much of a disaster that Worlds was). It's difficult to assess what Plushenko would get for PCS using just one competition (Euros 2012, where Javier wasn't nearly as good as he is now, and he didn't compete against Chan/Takahashi/Ten/Hanyu). Just like we can't really assess what his PCS potential would be using his most recent competition - Euros 2013 - as an example. And, excluding Japan Open, Plushenko hasn't competed against Chan/Takahashi/Ten since the Olympics (four years ago), and has yet to compete against Hanyu, so we can only predict.

I am really tired of all your prediction. Plushyfan's reason certainly does not hold as for the reason you said yourself. And it is the same for your argument no matter how many data you bring up. Apparently you cannot be settled down as we do not really hold the hope of him winning seriously since we know he has health issues. You have to put the idea of all the top men now are better than Plushenko into people's mind. You just cannot stop yourself. Just amazing.

Seriously, I do not really think Plushenko can win Olympics, but if he is healthy, he should have quite a chance to medal. Ice is slippery, as you mentioned before, may the best men stand. Anyway, trash talking Plushenko's "average" skating ability would not affect anything for the man. You only annoy fans of Plushenko and other people who respect him as a great athlete. Maybe you have a great fun of annoy other people by using your cunning words (truth mixed with small portion of rubbish to make people think the rubbish is truth).
 

ciocio

On the Ice
Joined
Sep 27, 2010
Hehe. Interesting to see how you put a clean Takahashi with "it depends on the PCS he receives." While Javi and Chan with "would beat him", even if it's clear as a day that a clean Dai's PCS must be ways higher than a clean Chan's and especially a clean Javi's. Yet with them you have no "it depends" in your argument, which is actually right. Because they are both aer either a Canadian or a coached/petted by a Canadian, so their PCS are granted with no "it depends".

In my opinion, Takahashi is sometimes very underscored in PCS (very often unfortunately :disapp:)that's why I've said "it depends".
Ferdandez, if clean, has 3 quads :eek: and we know judges can be generous when it comes to his PCS.:biggrin:
A clean Hanyu may beat Plushenko but again, their PCS could decide the outcome. :popcorn:
Chan is Chan. :cool:
 

bestskate8

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
A clean Chan or Fernandez would beat him, Takahashi and Hanyu, well..it depends on the PCS they receive and Ten definitely NO.
Baised on what? Facts are Plushenko technically has better jump techniques, better spins (more interesting), better footwork.
In PCS he has the edge in everything, his skating is so solid, assure, refined, polished, mature and pleasant to watch! You have to fit all these qualities into PCS, not only transitions.:laugh:
 

bestskate8

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
He got a personal best in his SP - and the world record - at Worlds, and his 2012 Rostelcom FS had three jumps turned to doubles but still scored 176.91, which is higher than Plushenko's best free skate at Euros 2012. At the 2012 4CC his FS was two points shy of his personal best. He's been up and down with his free skate but his SP has been generally reliable and even with a major error he can still pull 90 points whereas Plushenko needs to go clean and with a quad to get 90+ because his programs, levels, GOE, and overall skating are that much better. Same with his FS... Chan scored about 170 at Worlds and the GPF with flawed skates (not condoning it, just pointing out scores) and Plushenko has only once scored above 170 and with a clean skate.

Did Plushenko skated at those competitions?
For reference you have to compare only competitions when both skaters skated.
Chan's last ISU competiton against Plushenko was Oly 2010. So the result is well known. Even JO is known too, but don't count fanfests. The rest will always be irrelevant.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Did Plushenko skated at those competitions?
For reference you have to compare only competitions when both skaters skated.
Chan's last ISU competiton against Plushenko was Oly 2010. So the result is well known. Even JO is known too, but don't count fanfests. The rest will always be irrelevant.

Okay, so Lysacek's last competition against Plushenko was Olympics 2010 where he beat him. So by your logic, we can assume that Plushenko would lose if they competed against each other in Sochi, since we're going by the competition where they last skated against each other? Since Yagudin last competed against Plushenko in 2002 and that was the last time they competed against each other, does that mean Yagudin would beat Plushenko today as well? ;) You can't use a competition from over 3 years ago as an example of how skaters are today. You think Denis Ten and Javier Fernandez were as good in 2010 as they are now?

Baised on what? Facts are Plushenko technically has better jump techniques, better spins (more interesting), better footwork.
In PCS he has the edge in everything, his skating is so solid, assure, refined, polished, mature and pleasant to watch! You have to fit all these qualities into PCS, not only transitions.:laugh:

A clean Fernandez would beat Plushenko based on the fact that he has higher technical content than him. His base value in EC2013 was 9 points higher than the base value of Plushenko's EC2012 skate (and Javier didn't do a 3F, which would have made his BV almost 13 points higher). This more than makes up for any PCS advantage Plushenko would receive. Also, Plushenko's best PCS (42.50, 88.94) is comparable to Fernandez's best PCS (41.93, 89.42), so it's not like he's making up the technical advantage Fernandez has over him with PCS.

In Chan's case, if he skates clean his PCS will definitely be higher than Plushenko's and everyone else's (except maybe a clean Takahashi); and with higher base value on his jumps and greater GOE he would certainly beat a clean Plushenko.

And if you're talking about spins, Plushenko's spins are nowhere even close to Chan's in terms of speed, rotations, difficult variations -- he doesn't get as many level 4's as Chan or as much GOE, and those are "facts". At 2013 Russian Nationals, Plushenko's SP had no level 4 spins (two level 3, one level 2)... his FS had no level 4 spins either (two level 2's, one level 3). And comparing to Fernandez, At Euros 2013 in the SP, Plushenko's footwork was a level 2, and he had just one level-4 spin. Fernandez's footwork was a level 3, and all three spins were level 4.
 

yaya124

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 27, 2011
Okay, so Lysacek's last competition against Plushenko was Olympics 2010 where he beat him. So by your logic, we can assume that Plushenko would lose if they competed against each other in Sochi, since we're going by the competition where they last skated against each other? Since Yagudin last competed against Plushenko in 2002 and that was the last time they competed against each other, does that mean Yagudin would beat Plushenko today as well? ;) You can't use a competition from over 3 years ago as an example of how skaters are today. You think Denis Ten and Javier Fernandez were as good in 2010 as they are now?



A clean Fernandez would beat Plushenko based on the fact that he has higher technical content than him. His base value in EC2013 was 9 points higher than the base value of Plushenko's EC2012 skate (and Javier didn't do a 3F, which would have made his BV almost 13 points higher). This more than makes up for any PCS advantage Plushenko would receive. Also, Plushenko's best PCS (42.50, 88.94) is comparable to Fernandez's best PCS (41.93, 89.42), so it's not like he's making up the technical advantage Fernandez has over him with PCS.

In Chan's case, if he skates clean his PCS will definitely be higher than Plushenko's and everyone else's (except maybe a clean Takahashi); and with higher base value on his jumps and greater GOE he would certainly beat a clean Plushenko.

And if you're talking about spins, Plushenko's spins are nowhere even close to Chan's in terms of speed, rotations, difficult variations -- he doesn't get as many level 4's as Chan or as much GOE, and those are "facts". At 2013 Russian Nationals, Plushenko's SP had no level 4 spins (two level 3, one level 2)... his FS had no level 4 spins either (two level 2's, one level 3). And comparing to Fernandez, At Euros 2013 in the SP, Plushenko's footwork was a level 2, and he had just one level-4 spin. Fernandez's footwork was a level 3, and all three spins were level 4.

OK OK, we get it now that all the top guys now are better than Plushenko, would you stop now?

Let us wait and see what would happen in Sochi.
 

bestskate8

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Yes. In 2010 when Plush and the ISU didn't like each other too much, because of Vancouver, and later the ISU suspended him,Mr Cinquanta went to Plush's dressing room in Milano december of 2010, and they discussed the problems. Do you think Mr C would have done it with any other skater?:no:
And if anybody is a fan of another skater, would like him (36 gold and 5 silver)?


:yes:

Really, didn't know that. Did Mr. C apologies for his misbehaver at Oly 2010, when he wanted Plushenko to seat quite, he probably was afraid of Plushenko knowing too much and could spelled out to the whole wold. :laugh: Judges now even worse then ever.
 

vlaurend

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 14, 2008
OK OK, we get it now that all the top guys now are better than Plushenko, would you stop now?

Let us wait and see what would happen in Sochi.

Umm . . . Check the topic of this thread. Speculating about what will happen in Sochi between Plushenko and the current top skaters is exactly what this discussion is about, LOL! If you don't want to read this speculation (including some very relevant facts brought up by CanadianSkaterGuy), then just stop reading this thread.
 

yaya124

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 27, 2011
Umm . . . Check the topic of this thread. Speculating about what will happen in Sochi between Plushenko and the current top skaters is exactly what this discussion is about, LOL! If you don't want to read this speculation (including some very relevant facts brought up by CanadianSkaterGuy), then just stop reading this thread.

I will stop certainly after this reply. I only tired of reading CSG's repeating posts over and over again. And I did not ask anybody else to stop. If CSG has anything new to say, I also would not feel so bored.

But you are definitely right, if you see me ever reply this post again, you can remind me that I said I will stop reading:biggrin:
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Umm . . . Check the topic of this thread. Speculating about what will happen in Sochi between Plushenko and the current top skaters is exactly what this discussion is about, LOL! If you don't want to read this speculation (including some very relevant facts brought up by CanadianSkaterGuy), then just stop reading this thread.

It is not that people are not allowed to discuss the topic it's that literally all of csg posts are always alike and never changing and the only thing I am glad about is that his discussion of the past is over and how Tim goebel was actually better then plushenko is done!!! Lol!! No but seriously euros 2012 showed that no one is really that much better then plushenko in Europe. Euros 2013 plushenko was still competitive.
 

bestskate8

On the Ice
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Oh I agree, I think it comes down to scoring potential.

When was the last time Plushenko did a FS with two clean quads? Has he done so in the past decade? I think most of us, including him, acknowledge he'll need two clean quads to stay competitive for the podium... but it's been ages since he's done that.

If he's healthy, he does have good consistency, but jumps like his lutz and quad aren't as reliable as they've been in the past and he doesn't do the 3F (anyone know why?). But in terms of having more consistency over the field, you can't really base it off one competition, or even 2 if you count Russian Nationals. He can rely on the fact that the other guys have strong segments but don't always put them both together -- but come Sochi you'd have to imagine at least one of the top guys would put together a clean or close to clean competition. And to be fair to the other guys, in the past year, they've attempted more ambitious technical layouts, including SPs with quads, 2 quads and difficult series, and axels in the 2nd half, so their propensity for errors is greater (but that also boosts their scoring potential).

:rolleye:

Chan needs to do two quads and two 3A in LP , if he wants to challenge Plushenko at Oly, but even this is not going to be enough, he will need third quad. When was the last time he did this LP clean.Why only Plushenko needs more jumps.:laugh:




Just for fun! :) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ooGFKnTMYY Especially for you CSG! ;)


That was amaizing, I was there to witness it.:)
 
Top