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Thread: Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title?

  1. #16
    - * - blue_idealist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Lysacek does not have a better chance to podium than Plushenko, especialy not in Russia. Lysacek's chances to podium are roughly 1%, while Plushenko's are more like 10%. I actually have a feeling the Olympic podium wont contain a single one of Chan, Plushenko, or Lysacek, and the Olympics itself might well not even have either Lysacek (most likely not in his case) or Plushenko (50/50 since nobody how bad of shape he is in the Russians will send him if he wants or is able to go). I know the Chan pick unlike the two oldies is a more daring one, but I just have a feeling.
    I have a feeling Chan will be on the podium, but he will not win.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by TontoK View Post
    How would the event rank against the WC that we just saw? I thought that was an awful competition.

    It's not like the event is riding a crest right now.
    agreed the mens event was disappointing. wish denis had won,

  3. #18
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    Plushenko had a very rare procedure done. That has to take first mention in any review of his potential to even get competitive again. He talks about ballet dancers doing fine after having a disc replaced but this is so different. I believe in a quad you land with 4 times your body weight? Now one of his biological discs had totally degenerated. But who knows what this artificial one will be like after a skater attempts any kind of jump? The ballet dancers who have had it and do well is something to compare it but not like figure skating jump! He's a walking experiment! He really didn't want to have this done before Sochi at all. If its a good disc and works well and everything else holds up, he has a long list of previous ailments, it's not like he doesn't have good technique and isn't a good competitor! You almost have to erase all previous attempts at competition now in some ways. Even recent stuff like Russian nationals 2013 where he did 3A and quads and generally did well, like Euros 2012 too. He can't really do anything until June. Then this experiment with artificial discs and figure skating jumps will be tested.

  4. #19
    - * - blue_idealist's Avatar
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    I doubt Plushenko will win again.. he might be on the podium but that's if he's lucky

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    I think it would be great if he competed (by earning his spot with a win at Russian nationals)... but the reality is that the men's field is a lot stronger now and his chances are very slim. I didn't count him out in 2010, because he'd never had poor results up until that point, but some past results for Plushenko have certainly shown vulnerability, particularly Euros, as a result of injury.

    Another issue is that I don't think he'll get the PCS that Chan or Takahashi are getting, even with perfect skates. It's become way more apparent that the field, as a whole, is much stronger and their programs are much more complex. The only advantage Plushenko had over the field was his jumps and consistency, which the other guys have not only matched but surpassed this season (Chan having consistently landed 2 quads, and Fernandez landing 3, and Hanyu usually landing his 4T and both 3As).

    Plushenko could have an outside shot at a medal if the guys bomb like they did at Worlds this year and he goes clean. But I think this Worlds was an anomaly for the guys and they will be much sharper come the Olympics. You can't really base Plushenko doing well off a poor Worlds anyways, because that would be like saying Plushenko bombed at Euros so he's going to skate like that at the Olympics. In other competitions throughout the season, like the GPF, he would have been off the podium.

    Really, we will only be able to gauge his chances the next time he hits the ice. You can bet he'll be competitive and do everything in his power to make it to Sochi, but compared to his past Olympics I can't imagine he'll be as successful there.

  6. #21
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    Is Plushenko back on the ice again?

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I think it would be great if he competed (by earning his spot with a win at Russian nationals)... but the reality is that the men's field is a lot stronger now and his chances are very slim. I didn't count him out in 2010, because he'd never had poor results up until that point, but some past results for Plushenko have certainly shown vulnerability, particularly Euros, as a result of injury.

    Another issue is that I don't think he'll get the PCS that Chan or Takahashi are getting, even with perfect skates. It's become way more apparent that the field, as a whole, is much stronger and their programs are much more complex. The only advantage Plushenko had over the field was his jumps and consistency, which the other guys have not only matched but surpassed this season (Chan having consistently landed 2 quads, and Fernandez landing 3, and Hanyu usually landing his 4T and both 3As).

    Plushenko could have an outside shot at a medal if the guys bomb like they did at Worlds this year and he goes clean. But I think this Worlds was an anomaly for the guys and they will be much sharper come the Olympics. You can't really base Plushenko doing well off a poor Worlds anyways, because that would be like saying Plushenko bombed at Euros so he's going to skate like that at the Olympics. In other competitions throughout the season, like the GPF, he would have been off the podium.

    Really, we will only be able to gauge his chances the next time he hits the ice. You can bet he'll be competitive and do everything in his power to make it to Sochi, but compared to his past Olympics I can't imagine he'll be as successful there.
    What Averbukh said is just random talk, nobody is serious about that, so you do not need to educate people again and again on why Plushenko cannot be among the top skaters again due to the deep field (let us just assume he will be healthy enough).

    PS, the consistency of Plushenko is not only referring to landing the quads, but he tends to delivery clean programs. Using Chan as an example for consistency is just a joke, right?

    And Plushenko, if healthy, will earn his spot by competing. As long as he can prove he still is number 1 in Russia, why should he back off? Is it logical to send Nr. 2 to Olympics only because Nr. 1 cannot receive great result?

    Plushenko himself said many many many times in his recent interviews that he would be happen to be on the podium. He knows the situation, believe or not, his fans also know.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    but the reality is that the men's field is a lot stronger now
    Please, this is probably the worst mens field in history. You are right on one thing and one thing only, Plushenko's chances are extremely slim, but that is because he is a very very old skater, way past his physical prime. Chan or Hanyu at 30 will be out of the top 10 if they are still competing amateur for instance (they wont be). Plushenko has faced way stronger fields than the current ones, 1999-2002 and 2004 at the very least, and still often won in his prime skating years. Plushenko in his prime would absolutely demolish any of the doggy dunn we saw at Worlds from the men. Maybe you meant stronger than Vancouver, which is possible, as Vancouver was also one of the worst mens fields in history, and Plushenko is even alot older and further past his prime than he was then.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by glam View Post
    Is Plushenko back on the ice again?
    A couple of steps and a short spin that he did in the show in Sakhalin last week hardly count as "be back on the ice." Today he was added to PIW show in Japan in July. I assume that is where his first appearance to public will take place after the disk replacement operation.
    http://www.princehotels.co.jp/iceshow/performer/

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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    A couple of steps and a short spin that he did in the show in Sakhalin last week hardly count as "be back on the ice." Today he was added to PIW show in Japan in July. I assume that is where his first appearance to public will take place after the disk replacement operation.
    http://www.princehotels.co.jp/iceshow/performer/
    He did a show already? Is that really wise? Why can't he just relax and take care of his back. He is rushing it again.

  11. #26
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    His first step on the ice since January http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=1&theater

    Two quotes from latest interviews:

    "Now doctors can not say I can skate or not. After I installed the vertebral disc of the polymer, which is fastened with screws. So far, very painful to walk. But I can not move. Soon I will go to Israel, will go rehab. Then rest and in May-June start training. I have friends - artists of the Bolshoi Theater, which makes such an operation. These guys jump, perform complex ballet elements. I hope everything will turn out."


    In middle of March:
    "I'll do my best whatever it takes. It's difficult to predict anything right now, it's 50/50. I want and I am ready to fight but it all depends on my back conditions. I will know in June. The doctor who operated me, and who performed a tons of operations of this kind, told me that it's a must to go through the right rehabilitation course, to recover, not to push things and not to force them. Then evrything will be fine and I'll be able again to skate, to jump and conquer the podiums."

    Alexei Mishin: "Plushenko will start with full training from 17th of June" http://t.co/PScwmrZXvR Pinzolo training camp.

    "From 2nd of May we will begin to train in "Jubilee" (St. Petersburg) or in Novogorsk, we will only make a program, while fully training will start from 17th of June, "- said Mishin over phone.
    To the question, is it possible at the moment to say, that Plushenko's recovered from injury, Mishin said that it's "too early to say" about it.

    Plushy's some Italian fans and some girls from several countries used to go Pinzolo. They will report to us.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by glam View Post
    He did a show already? Is that really wise? Why can't he just relax and take care of his back. He is rushing it again.
    No, he didn't skate, he was the host of his show.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by glam View Post
    He did a show already? Is that really wise? Why can't he just relax and take care of his back. He is rushing it again.
    The video is quite clear. He is just not doing much. All the other men there did major step sequences and he didn't! He wasn't doing major things. He was doing a little choreo and that's it. It really wasn't much. He is taking it very slowly. He's not even doing step sequences! Him being on the ice is not indicative of rushing. It's world class gold winning skater standing on the ice?

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Plushenko has faced way stronger fields than the current ones, 1999-2002 and 2004 at the very least, and still often won in his prime skating years. Plushenko in his prime would absolutely demolish any of the doggy dunn we saw at Worlds from the men. Maybe you meant stronger than Vancouver, which is possible, as Vancouver was also one of the worst mens fields in history, and Plushenko is even alot older and further past his prime than he was then.
    You're seriously using 1999-2002, a pre-CoP era, as an example of stronger fields? The guys back then didn't have to do half the stuff programs have now. If you define "stronger field" as more consistent with jumps, sure they were, but that's partially due to the fact that men only needed to focus on the jumps. You had 10 second footwork sequences on mainly picks with no difficult turns, spins had not nearly as many revolutions or as much intricacy, you could telegraph jumps or just stroke in between them, and there weren't nearly as many quads being executed or attempted.

    Today's men aren't consistently strong, but it's really hard to get a clean program with quads, axels, and difficult choreography/spins/intricate footwork -- post-CoP. The inconsistency is due to the higher difficulty. What this men's field attempts would wipe the floor clean, difficulty-wise, compared to any field in history, so obviously they're not going to be the cleanest field in history by any stretch. And frankly, it's unreasonable to expect them to be.

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    If not Plushenko, then WHO?

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