In PCS he has the edge in everything, his skating is so solid, assure, refined, polished, mature and pleasant to watch! You have to fit all these qualities into PCS, not only transitions.
For reference you have to compare only competitions when both skaters skated.
Chan's last ISU competiton against Plushenko was Oly 2010. So the result is well known. Even JO is known too, but don't count fanfests. The rest will always be irrelevant.
In Chan's case, if he skates clean his PCS will definitely be higher than Plushenko's and everyone else's (except maybe a clean Takahashi); and with higher base value on his jumps and greater GOE he would certainly beat a clean Plushenko.
And if you're talking about spins, Plushenko's spins are nowhere even close to Chan's in terms of speed, rotations, difficult variations -- he doesn't get as many level 4's as Chan or as much GOE, and those are "facts". At 2013 Russian Nationals, Plushenko's SP had no level 4 spins (two level 3, one level 2)... his FS had no level 4 spins either (two level 2's, one level 3). And comparing to Fernandez, At Euros 2013 in the SP, Plushenko's footwork was a level 2, and he had just one level-4 spin. Fernandez's footwork was a level 3, and all three spins were level 4.
But you are definitely right, if you see me ever reply this post again, you can remind me that I said I will stop reading
Chan needs to do two quads and two 3A in LP , if he wants to challenge Plushenko at Oly, but even this is not going to be enough, he will need third quad. When was the last time he did this LP clean.Why only Plushenko needs more jumps.
That was amaizing, I was there to witness it.
why don't you undrerstand, it has zero value!
Why you always ignore the facts
Plushenko was second at the Oly 2010 ( even thought he was a clear winner), he was better then everyone you mention above. He was first at Euro 2012, and again better then everyone you mention above.
Euro 2013 he withdrew, he is not in a final standings, he didn't lost to anyone.
He will enter to the Oly 2014 as the best current skater. Live with it!
CSG is right, this thread's title is Can Evgeni Plushenko win... Everybody already knows all the top guys are better than Plushenko!
But if his health permits, he is preparing for Sochi, because he is confident in himself. And he gets a lot of support.
His fans wish that Plushy can participate in the Sochi Olympics.
A fan tried to cheer Plusy by changing the lyrics.
Here we stand
Hearts broken in two, two, two
I'm reaching for you, you, you
I wished a miracle changed your body healthy
Can’t I see you who skate without pain?
Someday peace will find you
Break those chains that bind you
One night will remind you
How much I love you
Even if we are in the separate places
If ISU ever hurts you
True fan won't desert you
You know I still love you
Even if we are in the separate places
Caught between confusions and pain, pain, pain
[I]Four years ago,
The gold medal became the illusion
If you must go to Sochi
I wish your happiness
You'll never walk alone
Take care my love
Miss you love
As for me saying the same things, I was providing actual reasons based on facts from recent competitions as to why the other top skaters have an advantage from a points-standpoint and using PCS from Plushenko's best competition as a model for what his scoring potential is. I was also countering the suggestion that he has the best spins using scores given at Russian Nationals and Euro 2013, showing that he doesn't even do a majority of level 4 spins and even did just level 2 footwork at Euros 2013 (to counter the assertion that he has the best footwork). Of course "best" is in the points sense and I'm sure he could do any spin and his fans would consider it the "best" of the field.
Plushenko has had Euros 2012 where he performed well against other skaters and that's the only international (other than JO). It's fine if you use that as an example, but using 2010 oly and saying he beat Chan and Fernandez and Ten there pays little heed to the improvement of the rest of the field over the past few years (past year especially in Ten and Fernandez's case). It's the same as suggesting that Plushenko is the same skater that he was in 2010 as he is now, when euros 2012 and other recent skates show his overall program content is improved.
I've explained why Plushenko needs more jumps, based on points (people argue that he's a mature skater and so refined, etc. but I'm actually providing numbers that back up my statements):
- Chan will get higher PCS if he skates clean (or close to clean), and the same with Takahashi (who, if he's clean, will even get higher PCS than Chan). In Chan's case, if he's clean, say he ends up outscoring Plushenko by just 0.50 across all PCS categories.. that works out to 2.5 points higher PCS in the SP and 5 points higher PCS in the LP, so a 7.5 point advantage across the competition based on PCS. This gap might be lessened if Plushenko does a quad in his SP and two quads in his LP (something he hasn't done in a decade)... but regardless, the fact that Chan gets generally higher GOE on his jumps, has higher levels/GOE on spins and has harder jump layouts (helped by Plushenko not doing a 3F for some reason), Plushenko would need two quads executed well just to keep up.
- Fernandez has higher technical content (as it stands, his base value for a clean program with three quads is about 13 points higher than Plushenko's base value with one quad... so even if Plushenko has good PCS it might not overcome Fernandez's higher base value. Fernandez could have an even greater base value if he swapped his final 3S for any other jump (since he repeats his 4S and 3S).
- Hanyu is helped by having a lot of hard jumps in his second half and with good GOE, and also a strong SP (more often than not). If he puts together a clean FS with 2 quads, then even if Plushenko has a PCS advantage it might not be enough mathematically
The last time Chan did a clean program in 2012 at Four Continents (a fews after Euros 2012, which was the last time Plushenko last did a clean FS). When was the last time Plushenko did a clean SP with 4T-3T, 3Z, 3A?