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Thread: Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title?

  1. #451
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    Quote Originally Posted by lilywang View Post
    I have such fond memory of his Crazy Bird performance in 1998 World gala. Even at the tender age of 15, he can string the whole audience around his finger tip.
    Like me, that was the moment when I "fell in love" with him . The Ex program in 1998 was similar but wasn't same. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k-yMlGvlW0

  2. #452
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    Quote Originally Posted by ciocio View Post
    A clean Chan or Fernandez would beat him, Takahashi and Hanyu, well..it depends on the PCS they receive and Ten definitely NO.
    Baised on what? Facts are Plushenko technically has better jump techniques, better spins (more interesting), better footwork.
    In PCS he has the edge in everything, his skating is so solid, assure, refined, polished, mature and pleasant to watch! You have to fit all these qualities into PCS, not only transitions.

  3. #453
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    He got a personal best in his SP - and the world record - at Worlds, and his 2012 Rostelcom FS had three jumps turned to doubles but still scored 176.91, which is higher than Plushenko's best free skate at Euros 2012. At the 2012 4CC his FS was two points shy of his personal best. He's been up and down with his free skate but his SP has been generally reliable and even with a major error he can still pull 90 points whereas Plushenko needs to go clean and with a quad to get 90+ because his programs, levels, GOE, and overall skating are that much better. Same with his FS... Chan scored about 170 at Worlds and the GPF with flawed skates (not condoning it, just pointing out scores) and Plushenko has only once scored above 170 and with a clean skate.
    Did Plushenko skated at those competitions?
    For reference you have to compare only competitions when both skaters skated.
    Chan's last ISU competiton against Plushenko was Oly 2010. So the result is well known. Even JO is known too, but don't count fanfests. The rest will always be irrelevant.

  4. #454
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    Quote Originally Posted by bestskate8 View Post
    Did Plushenko skated at those competitions?
    For reference you have to compare only competitions when both skaters skated.
    Chan's last ISU competiton against Plushenko was Oly 2010. So the result is well known. Even JO is known too, but don't count fanfests. The rest will always be irrelevant.
    Okay, so Lysacek's last competition against Plushenko was Olympics 2010 where he beat him. So by your logic, we can assume that Plushenko would lose if they competed against each other in Sochi, since we're going by the competition where they last skated against each other? Since Yagudin last competed against Plushenko in 2002 and that was the last time they competed against each other, does that mean Yagudin would beat Plushenko today as well? You can't use a competition from over 3 years ago as an example of how skaters are today. You think Denis Ten and Javier Fernandez were as good in 2010 as they are now?

    Quote Originally Posted by bestskate8 View Post
    Baised on what? Facts are Plushenko technically has better jump techniques, better spins (more interesting), better footwork.
    In PCS he has the edge in everything, his skating is so solid, assure, refined, polished, mature and pleasant to watch! You have to fit all these qualities into PCS, not only transitions.
    A clean Fernandez would beat Plushenko based on the fact that he has higher technical content than him. His base value in EC2013 was 9 points higher than the base value of Plushenko's EC2012 skate (and Javier didn't do a 3F, which would have made his BV almost 13 points higher). This more than makes up for any PCS advantage Plushenko would receive. Also, Plushenko's best PCS (42.50, 88.94) is comparable to Fernandez's best PCS (41.93, 89.42), so it's not like he's making up the technical advantage Fernandez has over him with PCS.

    In Chan's case, if he skates clean his PCS will definitely be higher than Plushenko's and everyone else's (except maybe a clean Takahashi); and with higher base value on his jumps and greater GOE he would certainly beat a clean Plushenko.

    And if you're talking about spins, Plushenko's spins are nowhere even close to Chan's in terms of speed, rotations, difficult variations -- he doesn't get as many level 4's as Chan or as much GOE, and those are "facts". At 2013 Russian Nationals, Plushenko's SP had no level 4 spins (two level 3, one level 2)... his FS had no level 4 spins either (two level 2's, one level 3). And comparing to Fernandez, At Euros 2013 in the SP, Plushenko's footwork was a level 2, and he had just one level-4 spin. Fernandez's footwork was a level 3, and all three spins were level 4.

  5. #455
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Okay, so Lysacek's last competition against Plushenko was Olympics 2010 where he beat him. So by your logic, we can assume that Plushenko would lose if they competed against each other in Sochi, since we're going by the competition where they last skated against each other? Since Yagudin last competed against Plushenko in 2002 and that was the last time they competed against each other, does that mean Yagudin would beat Plushenko today as well? You can't use a competition from over 3 years ago as an example of how skaters are today. You think Denis Ten and Javier Fernandez were as good in 2010 as they are now?



    A clean Fernandez would beat Plushenko based on the fact that he has higher technical content than him. His base value in EC2013 was 9 points higher than the base value of Plushenko's EC2012 skate (and Javier didn't do a 3F, which would have made his BV almost 13 points higher). This more than makes up for any PCS advantage Plushenko would receive. Also, Plushenko's best PCS (42.50, 88.94) is comparable to Fernandez's best PCS (41.93, 89.42), so it's not like he's making up the technical advantage Fernandez has over him with PCS.

    In Chan's case, if he skates clean his PCS will definitely be higher than Plushenko's and everyone else's (except maybe a clean Takahashi); and with higher base value on his jumps and greater GOE he would certainly beat a clean Plushenko.

    And if you're talking about spins, Plushenko's spins are nowhere even close to Chan's in terms of speed, rotations, difficult variations -- he doesn't get as many level 4's as Chan or as much GOE, and those are "facts". At 2013 Russian Nationals, Plushenko's SP had no level 4 spins (two level 3, one level 2)... his FS had no level 4 spins either (two level 2's, one level 3). And comparing to Fernandez, At Euros 2013 in the SP, Plushenko's footwork was a level 2, and he had just one level-4 spin. Fernandez's footwork was a level 3, and all three spins were level 4.
    OK OK, we get it now that all the top guys now are better than Plushenko, would you stop now?

    Let us wait and see what would happen in Sochi.

  6. #456
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    Quote Originally Posted by plushyfan View Post
    Yes. In 2010 when Plush and the ISU didn't like each other too much, because of Vancouver, and later the ISU suspended him,Mr Cinquanta went to Plush's dressing room in Milano december of 2010, and they discussed the problems. Do you think Mr C would have done it with any other skater?
    And if anybody is a fan of another skater, would like him (36 gold and 5 silver)?


    Really, didn't know that. Did Mr. C apologies for his misbehaver at Oly 2010, when he wanted Plushenko to seat quite, he probably was afraid of Plushenko knowing too much and could spelled out to the whole wold. Judges now even worse then ever.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yaya124 View Post
    OK OK, we get it now that all the top guys now are better than Plushenko, would you stop now?

    Let us wait and see what would happen in Sochi.
    Umm . . . Check the topic of this thread. Speculating about what will happen in Sochi between Plushenko and the current top skaters is exactly what this discussion is about, LOL! If you don't want to read this speculation (including some very relevant facts brought up by CanadianSkaterGuy), then just stop reading this thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by vlaurend View Post
    Umm . . . Check the topic of this thread. Speculating about what will happen in Sochi between Plushenko and the current top skaters is exactly what this discussion is about, LOL! If you don't want to read this speculation (including some very relevant facts brought up by CanadianSkaterGuy), then just stop reading this thread.
    I will stop certainly after this reply. I only tired of reading CSG's repeating posts over and over again. And I did not ask anybody else to stop. If CSG has anything new to say, I also would not feel so bored.

    But you are definitely right, if you see me ever reply this post again, you can remind me that I said I will stop reading

  9. #459
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    Quote Originally Posted by vlaurend View Post
    Umm . . . Check the topic of this thread. Speculating about what will happen in Sochi between Plushenko and the current top skaters is exactly what this discussion is about, LOL! If you don't want to read this speculation (including some very relevant facts brought up by CanadianSkaterGuy), then just stop reading this thread.
    It is not that people are not allowed to discuss the topic it's that literally all of csg posts are always alike and never changing and the only thing I am glad about is that his discussion of the past is over and how Tim goebel was actually better then plushenko is done!!! Lol!! No but seriously euros 2012 showed that no one is really that much better then plushenko in Europe. Euros 2013 plushenko was still competitive.

  10. #460
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Oh I agree, I think it comes down to scoring potential.

    When was the last time Plushenko did a FS with two clean quads? Has he done so in the past decade? I think most of us, including him, acknowledge he'll need two clean quads to stay competitive for the podium... but it's been ages since he's done that.

    If he's healthy, he does have good consistency, but jumps like his lutz and quad aren't as reliable as they've been in the past and he doesn't do the 3F (anyone know why?). But in terms of having more consistency over the field, you can't really base it off one competition, or even 2 if you count Russian Nationals. He can rely on the fact that the other guys have strong segments but don't always put them both together -- but come Sochi you'd have to imagine at least one of the top guys would put together a clean or close to clean competition. And to be fair to the other guys, in the past year, they've attempted more ambitious technical layouts, including SPs with quads, 2 quads and difficult series, and axels in the 2nd half, so their propensity for errors is greater (but that also boosts their scoring potential).


    Chan needs to do two quads and two 3A in LP , if he wants to challenge Plushenko at Oly, but even this is not going to be enough, he will need third quad. When was the last time he did this LP clean.Why only Plushenko needs more jumps.




    Quote Originally Posted by plushyfan View Post
    Just for fun! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ooGFKnTMYY Especially for you CSG!

    That was amaizing, I was there to witness it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Okay, so Lysacek's last competition against Plushenko was Olympics 2010 where he beat him. So by your logic, we can assume that Plushenko would lose if they competed against each other in Sochi, since we're going by the competition where they last skated against each other? Since Yagudin last competed against Plushenko in 2002 and that was the last time they competed against each other, does that mean Yagudin would beat Plushenko today as well? You can't use a competition from over 3 years ago as an example of how skaters are today. You think Denis Ten and Javier Fernandez were as good in 2010 as they are now?



    A clean Fernandez would beat Plushenko based on the fact that he has higher technical content than him. His base value in EC2013 was 9 points higher than the base value of Plushenko's EC2012 skate (and Javier didn't do a 3F, which would have made his BV almost 13 points higher). This more than makes up for any PCS advantage Plushenko would receive. Also, Plushenko's best PCS (42.50, 88.94) is comparable to Fernandez's best PCS (41.93, 89.42), so it's not like he's making up the technical advantage Fernandez has over him with PCS.

    In Chan's case, if he skates clean his PCS will definitely be higher than Plushenko's and everyone else's (except maybe a clean Takahashi); and with higher base value on his jumps and greater GOE he would certainly beat a clean Plushenko.

    And if you're talking about spins, Plushenko's spins are nowhere even close to Chan's in terms of speed, rotations, difficult variations -- he doesn't get as many level 4's as Chan or as much GOE, and those are "facts". At 2013 Russian Nationals, Plushenko's SP had no level 4 spins (two level 3, one level 2)... his FS had no level 4 spins either (two level 2's, one level 3). And comparing to Fernandez, At Euros 2013 in the SP, Plushenko's footwork was a level 2, and he had just one level-4 spin. Fernandez's footwork was a level 3, and all three spins were level 4.
    you must be joking, when getting data from different competitions
    why don't you undrerstand, it has zero value!

    Why you always ignore the facts

    Plushenko was second at the Oly 2010 ( even thought he was a clear winner), he was better then everyone you mention above. He was first at Euro 2012, and again better then everyone you mention above.
    Euro 2013 he withdrew, he is not in a final standings, he didn't lost to anyone.
    He will enter to the Oly 2014 as the best current skater. Live with it!

  12. #462
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post

    And if you're talking about spins, Plushenko's spins are nowhere even close to Chan's in terms of speed, rotations, difficult variations -- he doesn't get as many level 4's as Chan or as much GOE, and those are "facts". At 2013 Russian Nationals, Plushenko's SP had no level 4 spins (two level 3, one level 2)... his FS had no level 4 spins either (two level 2's, one level 3). And comparing to Fernandez, At Euros 2013 in the SP, Plushenko's footwork was a level 2, and he had just one level-4 spin. Fernandez's footwork was a level 3, and all three spins were level 4.
    Plushenko had two level-4's spins in ECH 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by bestskate8 View Post
    Really, didn't know that. Did Mr. C apologies for his misbehaver at Oly 2010, when he wanted Plushenko to seat quite, he probably was afraid of Plushenko knowing too much and could spelled out to the whole wold. Judges now even worse then ever.
    And Mr C also said in autumn of 2010, that Plushy is the best skater post World War II. era
    ______

    CSG is right, this thread's title is Can Evgeni Plushenko win... Everybody already knows all the top guys are better than Plushenko!

    But if his health permits, he is preparing for Sochi, because he is confident in himself. And he gets a lot of support.

    His fans wish that Plushy can participate in the Sochi Olympics.
    A fan tried to cheer Plusy by changing the lyrics.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUTtu3g6cgI

    Here we stand
    Worlds apart
    Hearts broken in two, two, two
    Sleepless nights
    Losing ground
    I'm reaching for you, you, you
    I wished a miracle changed your body healthy
    Can’t I see you who skate without pain?

    Someday peace will find you
    Break those chains that bind you
    One night will remind you
    How much I love you
    Even if we are in the separate places

    If ISU ever hurts you
    True fan won't desert you
    You know I still love you
    Even if we are in the separate places
    Troubled times
    Caught between confusions and pain, pain, pain
    [I]Four years ago,
    The gold medal became the illusion

    If you must go to Sochi
    I wish your happiness
    You'll never walk alone
    Take care my love
    Miss you love

    So cute!

  13. #463
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    Quote Originally Posted by bestskate8 View Post
    you must be joking, when getting data from different competitions
    why don't you undrerstand, it has zero value!

    Why you always ignore the facts

    Plushenko was second at the Oly 2010 ( even thought he was a clear winner), he was better then everyone you mention above. He was first at Euro 2012, and again better then everyone you mention above.
    Euro 2013 he withdrew, he is not in a final standings, he didn't lost to anyone.
    He will enter to the Oly 2014 as the best current skater. Live with it!
    If you think he is the best based on a competition from 2010, and based on a competition where he scored a personal best that's only the 6th best of all the current skaters, or if you want to tell yourself Euros was an incomplete result (when mathematically it would have been impossible for Plushenko to have beaten Fernandez - even if he was healthy - since his base value was much less)... then, sure, keep telling yourself he's the best current skater.

    As for me saying the same things, I was providing actual reasons based on facts from recent competitions as to why the other top skaters have an advantage from a points-standpoint and using PCS from Plushenko's best competition as a model for what his scoring potential is. I was also countering the suggestion that he has the best spins using scores given at Russian Nationals and Euro 2013, showing that he doesn't even do a majority of level 4 spins and even did just level 2 footwork at Euros 2013 (to counter the assertion that he has the best footwork). Of course "best" is in the points sense and I'm sure he could do any spin and his fans would consider it the "best" of the field.

    Plushenko has had Euros 2012 where he performed well against other skaters and that's the only international (other than JO). It's fine if you use that as an example, but using 2010 oly and saying he beat Chan and Fernandez and Ten there pays little heed to the improvement of the rest of the field over the past few years (past year especially in Ten and Fernandez's case). It's the same as suggesting that Plushenko is the same skater that he was in 2010 as he is now, when euros 2012 and other recent skates show his overall program content is improved.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    No, a clean Takahashi scores greater PCS than a clean Chan.
    You forgot? He didn't. In Nice, where Chan was zamboni-ing the ice with his butt and yet got the highest PCS than everyone else. He got boo-ed and became the first boo-ed WC in Men in fs history. You are ignoring facts.
    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    When was the last time Plushenko did a FS with two clean quads?
    Peopel can ask you the same thing. When was the last time Chan did a clean FS without zamboni-ing the ice and/or double-ing his jumps?
    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I was providing actual reasons based on facts from recent competitions
    You don't have the licence to monopolize the demagogy and trolling. I too have actual reasons and facts from recent competitions. Chan will zamboni the ice multiple times. If he wins, the sport is done and will be kicked out of the Olympics. The dream podium for Canada is Chan with gold, Javi (Orser's pet boy) with silver, bronze will go to .. not Plu.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bestskate8 View Post
    Chan needs to do two quads and two 3A in LP , if he wants to challenge Plushenko at Oly, but even this is not going to be enough, he will need third quad. When was the last time he did this LP clean.Why only Plushenko needs more jumps.
    I don't know where you're getting this suggestion from (that Chan needs 2 quads and 2 triple axels to challenge Plushenko, when really it's the other way around - Plushenko needs 2 quads and 2 triple axels to challenge Chan).

    I've explained why Plushenko needs more jumps, based on points (people argue that he's a mature skater and so refined, etc. but I'm actually providing numbers that back up my statements):
    - Chan will get higher PCS if he skates clean (or close to clean), and the same with Takahashi (who, if he's clean, will even get higher PCS than Chan). In Chan's case, if he's clean, say he ends up outscoring Plushenko by just 0.50 across all PCS categories.. that works out to 2.5 points higher PCS in the SP and 5 points higher PCS in the LP, so a 7.5 point advantage across the competition based on PCS. This gap might be lessened if Plushenko does a quad in his SP and two quads in his LP (something he hasn't done in a decade)... but regardless, the fact that Chan gets generally higher GOE on his jumps, has higher levels/GOE on spins and has harder jump layouts (helped by Plushenko not doing a 3F for some reason), Plushenko would need two quads executed well just to keep up.
    - Fernandez has higher technical content (as it stands, his base value for a clean program with three quads is about 13 points higher than Plushenko's base value with one quad... so even if Plushenko has good PCS it might not overcome Fernandez's higher base value. Fernandez could have an even greater base value if he swapped his final 3S for any other jump (since he repeats his 4S and 3S).
    - Hanyu is helped by having a lot of hard jumps in his second half and with good GOE, and also a strong SP (more often than not). If he puts together a clean FS with 2 quads, then even if Plushenko has a PCS advantage it might not be enough mathematically

    The last time Chan did a clean program in 2012 at Four Continents (a fews after Euros 2012, which was the last time Plushenko last did a clean FS). When was the last time Plushenko did a clean SP with 4T-3T, 3Z, 3A?

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