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Thread: Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title?

  1. #466
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I don't know where you're getting this suggestion from (that Chan needs 2 quads and 2 triple axels to challenge Plushenko, when really it's the other way around - Plushenko needs 2 quads and 2 triple axels to challenge Chan).
    You are saying everyone must be clean and have more jumps to challenge Mr. Zamboni. But in fact it's not true. If Plu or anyone else skates clean and Chan zambonis the ice multiple times, the Canadian can still win by judges'pulling his PCS and GOE up. We have seen it a lot. If Chan's two controversial wins in a row caused the anger in the fs community, think for a second what reaction will follow if a la Nice/London scenario happens in Sochi. The sport will be kicked out of the Olympic programs. If that is the purpose of the guys like you, then you are doing things just right.
    - Chan will get higher PCS if he skates clean (or close to clean), and the same with Takahashi (who, if he's clean, will even get higher PCS than Chan).
    Chan won't skate clean. He still will get higher PCS if he zambonis the ice. Dai or anyone else, even if he skates clean, won't get higher PCS than Chan. It's according to your logic, i.e. based on facts from recent competitions.

  2. #467
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    When was the last time Chan did a clean FS without zamboni-ing the ice and/or double-ing his jumps?
    If you had read, you'd see that I had answered in response to the same question a few posts higher, Four Continents 2012 -- a week after the most recent time Plushenko himself had a clean FS. (Had Chan done his 3-jump combo on the final double axel, it would have broken his own world record in the FS.)

    I brought up the SP because Plushenko hasn't done a clean SP with 4T+3T, 3Z, 3A in years (nor attempted the quad in the SP internationally all of last season), but Chan did all of that at Worlds 2013 -- and has the world record to show for it. So if you're going bring up "When was the last time?" it works both ways.

  3. #468
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    As I had answered in response to the same question a few posts higher, Four Continents 2012.
    It would be two years ago by the time of Oly. "You can't use a competition from over 2 years ago as an example of how skaters are today. You think Chan in Sochi will be the same as at 4CC in 2012?" You are applying your method of "predictions based of facts from recent competitions" selectively- you use it to Plu&others and you don't use it when it comes to Chan. Because if you did, you would be saying the same thing as I do- Chan will zamboni the ice multiple times and will be grossly overscored. It's all based on facts from recent competitions. And if his wins, it will bury this sport in the Olympic programs.
    but Chan did all of that at Worlds 2013 -- and has the world record to show for it.
    You are always ignoring facts when it come to Chan. That so-called WR that alone gave him a GM in spite of zamboni-ing the ice multiple times in FS again considerably damaged this sport and brought nothing to Chan himself, neither love of fans nor sponsors' money. If the London scenario happens in Sochi, we, i.e. fans and community, will lose this sport with its sportsmanship and accountability. The future doesn't look good and bright. It's Evil.

  4. #469
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    It is a minor grumble, but does he has been strong skater in SP than fs consistently through his past seasons?
    In the 2013 World Championships, he does.
    but before 2013 world, I have not seen post like "he is strong skater in sp."
    during 12-13 season, he was very inconsistency on both sp and fs. He did not almost had a cleanly skate in sp in 12-13 season, except 2013world.

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    To answer the title of the thread: no.

  6. #471
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    If you think he is the best based on a competition from 2010, and based on a competition where he scored a personal best that's only the 6th best of all the current skaters, or if you want to tell yourself Euros was an incomplete result (when mathematically it would have been impossible for Plushenko to have beaten Fernandez - even if he was healthy - since his base value was much less)... then, sure, keep telling yourself he's the best current skater.

    As for me saying the same things, I was providing actual reasons based on facts from recent competitions as to why the other top skaters have an advantage from a points-standpoint and using PCS from Plushenko's best competition as a model for what his scoring potential is. I was also countering the suggestion that he has the best spins using scores given at Russian Nationals and Euro 2013, showing that he doesn't even do a majority of level 4 spins and even did just level 2 footwork at Euros 2013 (to counter the assertion that he has the best footwork). Of course "best" is in the points sense and I'm sure he could do any spin and his fans would consider it the "best" of the field.

    Plushenko has had Euros 2012 where he performed well against other skaters and that's the only international (other than JO). It's fine if you use that as an example, but using 2010 oly and saying he beat Chan and Fernandez and Ten there pays little heed to the improvement of the rest of the field over the past few years (past year especially in Ten and Fernandez's case). It's the same as suggesting that Plushenko is the same skater that he was in 2010 as he is now, when euros 2012 and other recent skates show his overall program content is improved.
    You are getting there.
    I don't guess of anything, as you do- by taking data from different competitions. I don't know what would happened "IF" Plushenko skated against those guys last two seasons. But he didn't skate. Except for Euro 2012, which he won.
    I only know for a fact, when Plushenko takes the ice, he absolutely dominates with his energy and his programs presentation is mesmerising.
    So as of today NONE of the skater you mention above beat Plushenko at ISU official competitions, it means he is the best in everything. And his three Olympics medals only prove that.

  7. #472
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I don't know where you're getting this suggestion from (that Chan needs 2 quads and 2 triple axels to challenge Plushenko, when really it's the other way around - Plushenko needs 2 quads and 2 triple axels to challenge Chan).

    I've explained why Plushenko needs more jumps, based on points (people argue that he's a mature skater and so refined, etc. but I'm actually providing numbers that back up my statements):
    - Chan will get higher PCS if he skates clean (or close to clean), and the same with Takahashi
    (who, if he's clean, will even get higher PCS than Chan). In Chan's case, if he's clean, say he ends up outscoring Plushenko by just 0.50 across all PCS categories.. that works out to 2.5 points higher PCS in the SP and 5 points higher PCS in the LP, so a 7.5 point advantage across the competition based on PCS. This gap might be lessened if Plushenko does a quad in his SP and two quads in his LP (something he hasn't done in a decade)... but regardless, the fact that Chan gets generally higher GOE on his jumps, has higher levels/GOE on spins and has harder jump layouts (helped by Plushenko not doing a 3F for some reason), Plushenko would need two quads executed well just to keep up.
    - Fernandez has higher technical content (as it stands, his base value for a clean program with three quads is about 13 points higher than Plushenko's base value with one quad... so even if Plushenko has good PCS it might not overcome Fernandez's higher base value. Fernandez could have an even greater base value if he swapped his final 3S for any other jump (since he repeats his 4S and 3S).
    - Hanyu is helped by having a lot of hard jumps in his second half and with good GOE, and also a strong SP (more often than not). If he puts together a clean FS with 2 quads, then even if Plushenko has a PCS advantage it might not be enough mathematically

    The last time Chan did a clean program in 2012 at Four Continents (a fews after Euros 2012, which was the last time Plushenko last did a clean FS). When was the last time Plushenko did a clean SP with 4T-3T, 3Z, 3A?
    You are foolish yourself, because you numbers come from your head and competitions where Plushenko didn't skate. ONLY final results are matters. Chan will never get higher PCS, if Plushenko skates clean, even with couple of mistakes Plushenko still will be ahead.
    Too bad NA people don't have a chance to see Plushenko skates live.
    Chan will need three quads plus two 3 axels to beat Plushenko with single quad and two a axels. Plushenko might not need to do any quads at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bestskate8 View Post
    Baised on what? Facts are Plushenko technically has better jump techniques, better spins (more interesting), better footwork.
    In PCS he has the edge in everything, his skating is so solid, assure, refined, polished, mature and pleasant to watch! You have to fit all these qualities into PCS, not only transitions.
    If clean, Fernandez has 3 quads and his skating is ok overall and Chan still has 2 quads and huuuuge PCS. Now if Plushenko gets a very good program and has solid jumps, his could get an obscene PCS( about 100000 points).

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    I think what you will see in Sochi is that there will be five or six men in contention, and a fall will knock you out of contention for OGM (unless everyone makes major mistakes). IIRC it has been over 20 years since a man has won the OGM with a fall and with so many non-skating fans watching the Olympics I believe that someone is not going to win with falls if other top contenders are clean.

  10. #475
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    It would be two years ago by the time of Oly. "You can't use a competition from over 2 years ago as an example of how skaters are today. You think Chan in Sochi will be the same as at 4CC in 2012?"
    Then by the same token, we can't say that Plushenko will be in Sochi as clean as he was in Euros 2012 (even though everyone refers to that as evidence of how solid he will be come Sochi, in spite of weaker performances and injury since then). And that competition even happened before the 2012 4CC competition.

  11. #476
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I think what you will see in Sochi is that there will be five or six men in contention, and a fall will knock you out of contention for OGM (unless everyone makes major mistakes). IIRC it has been over 20 years since a man has won the OGM with a fall and with so many non-skating fans watching the Olympics I believe that someone is not going to win with falls if other top contenders are clean.
    Also IIRC, a lot of silver medalists and bronze medalists have fallen or made errors, so if not for the gold medalist going clean, there would have been many OGM winners with errors. I also think that because of the vastly more difficult programs these days injected with harder spins/footwork/choreography/jumping layouts, the potential for errors is far greater than in the past 20 years. I can picture Takahashi/Chan/Fernandez/Hanyu winning with a minor error in the FS or a major error in the SP. I think a single major error like a fall in the SP would be okay for certain skaters, because everyone tends to look at the LP, and because of the scoring potential (particularly Fernandez and Chan) in the LP. In the LP it will be essential to "look" clean... so if you're going to make errors, they should be URs or doubled jumps. Those still cost you points but in terms of the overall performance it would generate a "clean" win.

  12. #477
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    Quote Originally Posted by bestskate8 View Post
    Chan will need three quads plus two 3 axels to beat Plushenko with single quad and two a axels. Plushenko might not need to do any quads at all.
    Are you sure Chan won't need 4 quads and 2 triple axels? Hey, why not 5 quads? I mean, since you're throwing out random absurdities, you might as well go all the way and say Chan will need 8 quads, and Plushenko only needs to do triples.

    Do I need to remind you that Plushenko - with a single quad and two triple axels - lost in 2010 to a man with no quad, who isn't even close to matching Patrick's ability/difficulty?

  13. #478
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    bestskate8 is almost as visibly pro Plushenko as CanadianSkaterGuy is outrageously pro Chan/anti Plushenko.

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    Can Kevin Reynolds medal in Sochi?

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