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Thread: Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title?

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by yaya124 View Post
    As I pointed out, that is your opinion, how would you know what he thought at the time? You just repeating these opinions over and over again to make the impression that Plushenko is arrogant (at least at 2010 Oly) without any solid proof to back you up. And the story is really old.

    And Plushenko said he plans to move 70% of the jumps to the second half (he had two versions of his LP this year but his injury preventing him from performing the more complex version. And he put 4 jumps to the second half of LP at RN, the injury also preventing him from doing 2 quads. Actually he took the risk by even performed 2 quads (one in Sp, one in LP) at RN since he lost a lot of training time from the back treatment. And he said couple of times that he needs 2 quads in his LP to have the chance to medal. So stop worrying for him not thinking maximize his points, he knows what he should do.
    I did provide solid proof to back up my opinion -- he didn't include the 3-jump combo in all three of his competitions leading up to the Olympics. And surely he must have known by then that it amounted to points being left on the table if you didn't execute a 3-jump combo... but it might not have been apparent to him because he still won by great margins. If he competed at the 2010 Worlds, I can bet you he would have had the 3-jump combo back in there and changed his jump layout.

    I also wasn't aware of him saying he plans to move 70% of his jumps to the second half. We have yet to see that, but sure, let's say his injury prevented him from taking advantage of the 10% bonus. Then why at Euros in his SP did he have his combination in the first half instead of trying for the second half bonus?!

    I'm not really concerned with him attempting the jump content he thinks he'll need in Sochi -- I'm sure after the 2010 debacle he'll take the measures to do that. I'm more interested to see if he'll actually do program-related changes like more transitions into and between jumps, and less stops, and more multi-directional skating.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I did provide solid proof to back up my opinion -- he didn't include the 3-jump combo in all three of his competitions leading up to the Olympics. And surely he must have known by then that it amounted to points being left on the table if you didn't execute a 3-jump combo... but it might not have been apparent to him because he still won by great margins. If he competed at the 2010 Worlds, I can bet you he would have had the 3-jump combo back in there and changed his jump layout.

    I also wasn't aware of him saying he plans to move 70% of his jumps to the second half. We have yet to see that, but sure, let's say his injury prevented him from taking advantage of the 10% bonus. Then why at Euros in his SP did he have his combination in the first half instead of trying for the second half bonus?!

    I'm not really concerned with him attempting the jump content he thinks he'll need in Sochi -- I'm sure after the 2010 debacle he'll take the measures to do that. I'm more interested to see if he'll actually do program-related changes like more transitions into and between jumps, and less stops, and more multi-directional skating.
    You have the fact but do you live in his mind? Can you say for sure that he was being arrogant to leave out the combo deliberately? Besides your facts are all back in 2009-2010. That is in the PAST, OK!!! So no need to discuss about that over and over again. He apparently put 3-jumps combo in in his recent competition, isn't it? And I just do not understand why people like to discuss something years ago with all the assumptions. Move on!!!

    He said that he has a version of 70% jumps in the second half after RN where he put 4 jumps in the second half. Just to update you on Plushenko's news a bit since you do not follow his activities, the first version of his LP is with 6 jumps in the first half (test skate and probably JO), but at RN, the layout of the program is significantly different. You can say that his back loaded program is just an imaginary program, that is up to you, but I just want to point out to you that he is aware of the bonus part.

    As for the SP, I think probably because of his injury he could not train properly so he kept his SP from last year, which is front loaded one. But that does not mean he does not know to put at least one jump in the second half will give him bonus. His abandoned SP (using blue music) had a version with a jump in the second half.

    Save your wish, you just have to wait until Sochi to know what would be his Olympic version of the programs. By saying you wish he put more transitions, blablabla, to me, sounds like you want to make the impression that Plushenko probably would not improve on these, which he does and apparently still like none existing in some people's eyes.

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I did provide solid proof to back up my opinion -- he didn't include the 3-jump combo in all three of his competitions leading up to the Olympics. And surely he must have known by then that it amounted to points being left on the table if you didn't execute a 3-jump combo... but it might not have been apparent to him because he still won by great margins. If he competed at the 2010 Worlds, I can bet you he would have had the 3-jump combo back in there and changed his jump layout.

    I also wasn't aware of him saying he plans to move 70% of his jumps to the second half. We have yet to see that, but sure, let's say his injury prevented him from taking advantage of the 10% bonus. Then why at Euros in his SP did he have his combination in the first half instead of trying for the second half bonus?!

    I'm not really concerned with him attempting the jump content he thinks he'll need in Sochi -- I'm sure after the 2010 debacle he'll take the measures to do that. I'm more interested to see if he'll actually do program-related changes like more transitions into and between jumps, and less stops, and more multi-directional skating.
    For Plushenko trying to maximize points in a program with 2 quads at the Japan Open in 2012 meant a 6/2 layout. He and his team had a different and wrong view of maximizing points the best way for him. You are not even trying to recognize that to maximize points for himself there is no 3 jump combo and there is a 6/2 layout of jumps. That is how they tried to maximize points for Plushenko not with COP. They should have tried to maximize points in COP not for Plushenko! Maybe in 2010 worlds there would have been no 3 jump combo to maximize points maybe their view of maximize points would have been 6/2 like the 2006 Olympics in jump layout but without a 3 jump combo or maybe with the 3 jump combo but 6/2 layout. You continue to assume the leaving out of the 3 jump was arrogance and bravado and "I'm better than all you" and had nothing to do with points maximizing!

    The double loop at the end of his three jump combo in Torino was horrendous! Look at that double loop he did in Torino. It was barely done. Plushenko was making errors on 3 jump combos all the time! 4/3/3 in SLC, 4/3/2 in Torino and maybe it was the same thing in training for Vancouver no matter where he put the jump. Maybe even a 3/2/2. Maybe he had just an ideological position not to do a 3/2/2 after doing a 4/3/3 and a 4/3/2. It doesn't have to be arrogance.

  4. #94
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    If he had done a double Loop at the end of the combo with a step out and a negative Goe, we would say now that if he had not done that loop he would have been gold medalist. Or If takahashi had not tried the 4F his program might have been different and he would have won. If Lysacek had 1.23 points less on the sp, Plushenko wouldnt need the double loop. There are many ifs, which dont matter now, I just think that he had great chance to win in Vancouver concidering the field and he didnt, Sochi field is very very different.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    For Plushenko trying to maximize points in a program with 2 quads at the Japan Open in 2012 meant a 6/2 layout. He and his team had a different and wrong view of maximizing points the best way for him. You are not even trying to recognize that to maximize points for himself there is no 3 jump combo and there is a 6/2 layout of jumps. That is how they tried to maximize points for Plushenko not with COP. They should have tried to maximize points in COP not for Plushenko! Maybe in 2010 worlds there would have been no 3 jump combo to maximize points maybe there view of maximize points would have been 6/2 like the 2006 Olympics in jump layout but without a 3 jump combo or maybe with the 3 jump combo but 6/2 layout. You continue to assume the leaving out of the 3 jump was arrogance and bravado and "I'm better than all you" and had nothing to do with points maximizing!
    Go watch his RN's LP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fydd6Pjjho0
    He was not in a good shape so his moments were not as sharp. Just to show you that his program changed significantly from JO's version.
    This is his simple version. But since we will never see the more advanced version, we will never know. But again, using his past programs to assume he would do the same in Sochi (if he compete) or not understanding COP is foolish. But maybe it is better for some people to think that way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by seniorita View Post
    If he had done a double Loop at the end of the combo with a step out and a negative Goe, we would say now that if he had not done that loop he would have been gold medalist. Or If takahashi had not tried the 4F his program might have been different and he would have won. If Lysacek had 1.23 points less on the sp, Plushenko wouldnt need the double loop. There are many ifs, which dont matter now, I just think that he had great chance to win in Vancouver concidering the field and he didnt, Sochi field is very very different.
    You are right. Actually I have no problem with opinions of him not possible to win, but not in such argument: repeating old stuff in order to reflect/assume his not yet created Olympic programs.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by seniorita View Post
    If he had done a double Loop at the end of the combo with a step out and a negative Goe, we would say now that if he had not done that loop he would have been gold medalist. Or If takahashi had not tried the 4F his program might have been different and he would have won. If Lysacek had 1.23 points less on the sp, Plushenko wouldnt need the double loop. There are many ifs, which dont matter now, I just think that he had great chance to win in Vancouver concidering the field and he didnt, Sochi field is very very different.
    Exactly! Saying just do a double loop and backload as if that was the only thing that would have been good is so wrong! The winner was quadless. Why not just do everything the gold medal winner did! Why not just repeat the 2008 or 2009 world LP's! Lysacek certainly didn't change a thing from March 2009 to February 2010 in international competition.

    Quote Originally Posted by yaya124 View Post
    Go watch his RN's LP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fydd6Pjjho0
    He was not in a good shape so his moments were not as sharp. Just to show you that his program changed significantly from JO's version.
    This is his simple version. But since we will never see the more advanced version, we will never know. But again, using his past programs to assume he would do the same in Sochi (if he compete) or not understanding COP is foolish. But maybe it is better for some people to think that way.
    I decided to look at the Protocol instead

    http://fsrussia.ru/upl/results/1213/...rusnat2013.pdf

    So he has a 4/4 layout and level 2 spins and you are right this was his pre surgery deteriorated disc verging on disaster performance so it's really not right to judge either this or JO as a Sochi preview!! I mean he had a disc replaced and certainly Euros 2012 showed a lot better.

    I agree with a lot you write on most things Plushenko related. Like all the stuff about having programs designs proposed just to infer that he couldn't do them! LOL!

    No quad triple but 3 jump combo! That is plushenko jump maximizing in this competition.

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    I never said it was arrogance to leave out the 2L, just oversight on his part. It would be like doing only 7 passes when you're allowed to attempt 8, or only 2 combos when you're allowed to do 3. He complains that the judges underscored him, which might have been true, but part of the blame goes to him and his team for leaving out the 2L. As pointed out he seems to have gotten a handle on jumping passes. But it's the choreography that still needs development. Russian Nationals was great for him technically and his program complexity is better than in 2010, but still not at the level of the other top guys.

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    You said very clearly that it wasn't jus an oversight it was a deliberate feeling that he didn't need it because of the completion of the 4/3 and 2 3's. That it was a oversight of a very deliberate nature because he was fully confident that those three things were all he needed to win! It's just a few posts up- or in a different thread as their are two plushenko oriented threads going. Anyway I even agreed I was deliberate because it was his version of actual point maximization because he had developed a very bad habit of stepping out of every three jump combo! Surely they were aware of other ways to Do a three jump combo as theyre not blind!

    Also I have to totally take issue and hope to believe that you mean He needs development in ways to do choreography that gets the most points in cop but doubt it. It probably means that he has to develop choreographically for the first time in his career.

    I think I also contradicted my self by saying his team was not dumb but were dumb. Not dumb in trying to get the best way for plushenko to do every jump he is capable of in Vancouver but dumb in no realizing that was no the best way together the most points. Obviously you didn't even need a quad for most points! So maybe they thought they could trade 3 jump combo for being the only one with a 4/3 and a 3a. But 2l doesn't guarantee he would have got all the 2l points at all! 2l could have meant fall and straight -3 a across the board or 2l< with negative 2's across the board!

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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    You said very clearly that it wasn't jus an oversight it was a deliberate feeling that he didn't need it because of the completion of the 4/3 and 2 3's. That it was a oversight of a very deliberate nature because he was fully confident that those three things were all he needed to win! It's just a few posts up- or in a different thread as their are two plushenko oriented threads going. Anyway I even agreed I was deliberate because it was his version of actual point maximization because he had developed a very bad habit of stepping out of every three jump combo! Surely they were aware of other ways to Do a three jump combo as theyre not blind!

    Also I have to totally take issue and hope to believe that you mean He needs development in ways to do choreography that gets the most points in cop but doubt it. It probably means that he has to develop choreographically for the first time in his career.

    I think I also contradicted my self by saying his team was not dumb but were dumb. Not dumb in trying to get the best way for plushenko to do every jump he is capable of in Vancouver but dumb in no realizing that was no the best way together the most points. Obviously you didn't even need a quad for most points! So maybe they thought they could trade 3 jump combo for being the only one with a 4/3 and a 3a. But 2l doesn't guarantee he would have got all the 2l points at all! 2l could have meant fall and straight -3 a across the board or 2l< with negative 2's across the board!
    He lost because his programs were inferior and he assumed that if he landed jumps, he would win. To flat out say "I don't have transitions" (which arguably implies that he doesn't need them) was a stupid thing for him to admit because even after acknowledging it, he didn't do anything about. He basically named his flaw instead of saying "I'm working to increase the transitions in my skating". For the most points, Plushenko would have needed a better program (including transitions). Having the quad helped him make up for the fact that his choreography was inferior to Lambiel, Takahashi, Lysacek, etc. If he did just a 3-3 in his SP he would have been behind Lysacek and Takahashi, and if he did no quad in his LP, his score would have been less than what it was. It makes no sense to think if he didn't attempt quads, his score would be higher because the judges were looking for a program without a quad (when really they were looking for programs with good content and not just hard jumps, imagine that). And your point about avoiding the risk of falling on a 2L... Why attempt the quad and two 3As then? It's certainly riskier than attaching a 2L on his 3-jump combo.

    I'm saying that he deliberately didn't include the 2L in his FS because its exclusion wasn't detrimental to him easily winning the competitions prior to the Olympics. I would bet that he thought that if he landed a 4T and two 3As, who would care if he did a measly 2L? Had he lost by a few points in prior competitions or if his wins had been closer he would have seen the need to add more points. I wasn't the one saying that's him being arrogant, and even said that he wasn't arrogant for excluding that. It's silly to imply that a skater is being arrogant or not because nobody can tell what the skater is thinking or what program they have on paper - they can only see the program they execute which is presumably the program they're most comfortable with.

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    Don't you guys find the arguments too old? That has been done back in 2010. As 2014 is 4 years later than 2010, can you bring something new? Or simply just say:

    I do not think he will win. Period!
    I think he has a shot at podium.
    I do not think he can even podium!
    I do not think he can compete at all due to his injury!
    etc. etc.

    But not stuff back from 2010, and all the GUESSING and ASSUMPTIONS from your mind. There is no IF to that competition because it was done almost 3 years ago. Moving on people!!

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    He lost because his programs were inferior and he assumed that if he landed jumps, he would win. To flat out say "I don't have transitions" (which arguably implies that he doesn't need them) was a stupid thing for him to admit because even after acknowledging it, he didn't do anything about. He basically named his flaw instead of saying "I'm working to increase the transitions in my skating". For the most points, Plushenko would have needed a better program (including transitions). Having the quad helped him make up for the fact that his choreography was inferior to Lambiel, Takahashi, Lysacek, etc. If he did just a 3-3 in his SP he would have been behind Lysacek and Takahashi, and if he did no quad in his LP, his score would have been less than what it was. It makes no sense to think if he didn't attempt quads, his score would be higher because the judges were looking for a program without a quad (when really they were looking for programs with good content and not just hard jumps, imagine that). And your point about avoiding the risk of falling on a 2L... Why attempt the quad and two 3As then? It's certainly riskier than attaching a 2L on his 3-jump combo.

    I'm saying that he deliberately didn't include the 2L in his FS because its exclusion wasn't detrimental to him easily winning the competitions prior to the Olympics. I would bet that he thought that if he landed a 4T and two 3As, who would care if he did a measly 2L? Had he lost by a few points in prior competitions or if his wins had been closer he would have seen the need to add more points. I wasn't the one saying that's him being arrogant, and even said that he wasn't arrogant for excluding that. It's silly to imply that a skater is being arrogant or not because nobody can tell what the skater is thinking or what program they have on paper - they can only see the program they execute which is presumably the program they're most comfortable with.
    Because of what was reported he said on transitions he did have more transitions in the SP and LP. They weren't inman transitions but the were IJS definition of what transitions are or can be. They weren't INman level and he was the only person in the top 20 to get to 5.00 but he did do them! After the 3A jumps? Because IJS definition of transitions say in and out of jumps are transitions.

    He can do one jump or a 2 jump combo but recent previous to the 2009/2010 season 3 jump combos were terrible! That is why he didn't do a three jump combo but do a 4/3 or two triple axels. They were not three jump combos which as you can see from watching performances before 2009 he was doing not at all or very badly. It's very reasonable to assume that you being the only one with a quad triple and 3a you can go without doing a 3 jump combo which you had been doing very poorly. It is just a double loop. I am sure he can do a double loop by itself very very easily. But three jump combo is not just a double loop. Look at this terrible and awful double loop in 2006. It was awful. He would have lost all the points of the 2L and more if he didn't rotate it.

    The winner got most points without doing a quad and so could have plushenko if he worked on the other areas instead of quad training. You say Plushenko needed a quad to win but lysacek didn't need a quad to win. I say if they were both doing non-quad programs plushenko could have won too! His triple axels are better. It would have been totally possible for Plushenko to get the most points without doing quads and doing Lysaceks technical layout. I have some idea of how plushenko would skate without quads in an LP because of 2005 worlds! He did great and with a lot of backloading. He won the QR. So he can win something like a qr without a quad.

    Maybe instead of getting negative GOE he would have gotten positive goe close to +3 if he didn't do a quad. COP is not about doing what is possible but doing what you can do the best! So he could do a quad but lots thought it was trash. So you don't do that trash jump but do a good jump to get +3 goe on it. Quad toe base value 9.8 then triple axel with GOE over 10 points! Better to do that obviously! Should have done better triple axels.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by yaya124 View Post

    Don't you guys find the arguments too old? That has been done back in 2010. As 2014 is 4 years later than 2010, can you bring something new? Or simply just say:

    I do not think he will win. Period!
    I think he has a shot at podium.
    I do not think he can even podium!
    I do not think he can compete at all due to his injury!
    etc. etc.

    But not stuff back from 2010, and all the GUESSING and ASSUMPTIONS from your mind. There is no IF to that competition because it was done almost 3 years ago. Moving on people!!
    If he wants to do well in Sochi part of that is learning from his mistakes! COP has to be followed. You must do what works. You can't come to an Olympics 4 years after the previous one and pretend like its all the same you don't have to change anything. He ignored the formula for winning the previous two worlds. That was wrong. He should have followed what worked in 2008 and 2009- got rid of the quads! Follow the trends. Follow what is going on. Follow what the judges want.

  14. #104
    leave no stone unturned seniorita's Avatar
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    Having the quad helped him make up for the fact that his choreography was inferior to Lambiel, Takahashi, Lysacek, etc.
    Isnt it a bit of a caramel? I m sorry but how the quad helped him make up for the choreo, when at the end of the day his pcs were the same as Lysacek's and his TES lower?

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    I'd say no.

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