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Thread: Can Evgeni Plushenko win the 2014 Olympic title?

  1. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    Because of what was reported he said on transitions he did have more transitions in the SP and LP. They weren't inman transitions but the were IJS definition of what transitions are or can be. They weren't INman level and he was the only person in the top 20 to get to 5.00 but he did do them! After the 3A jumps? Because IJS definition of transitions say in and out of jumps are transitions.

    He can do one jump or a 2 jump combo but recent previous to the 2009/2010 season 3 jump combos were terrible! That is why he didn't do a three jump combo but do a 4/3 or two triple axels. They were not three jump combos which as you can see from watching performances before 2009 he was doing not at all or very badly.

    Maybe instead of getting negative GOE he would have gotten positive goe close to +3 if he didn't do a quad. COP is not about doing what is possible but doing what you can do the best! So he could do a quad but lots thought it was trash. So you don't do that trash jump but do a good jump to get +3 goe on it. Quad toe base value 9.8 then triple axel with GOE over 10 points! Better to do that obviously! Should have done better triple axels.
    I don't get your point. He did do two triple axels in his 2010 program. Are you saying if he hadn't done quads he'd all of a sudden get +3's on his jumps that he didn't get them on? (Or jumps that weren't his usual level of clean like his first axel, his lutzes).

    As for transitions, I don't know you mean by Inman transitions. His LP was devoid of them, and clearly his Euros LP in 2012 showed he's capable of incorporating more.

    For his three jump combo if his 2L was so bad he could have made it a 2T instead.

  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I don't get your point. He did do two triple axels in his 2010 program. Are you saying if he hadn't done quads he'd all of a sudden get +3's on his jumps that he didn't get them on? (Or jumps that weren't his usual level of clean like his first axel, his lutzes).

    As for transitions, I don't know you mean by Inman transitions. His LP was devoid of them, and clearly his Euros LP in 2012 showed he's capable of incorporating more.

    For his three jump combo if his 2L was so bad he could have made it a 2T instead.
    My guess is that gmyers means that if he hadn't done the quads, his other jumps would have been his usual level of clean, as the energy that went on the quad, could have gone towards that instead. Or that is how I read it, at any rate.

    Personally, I think the discussion is purely academic - we all know he'd do the quad if he possibly can. It's a matter of principle with him.

  3. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by LRK View Post
    My guess is that gmyers means that if he hadn't done the quads, his other jumps would have been his usual level of clean, as the energy that went on the quad, could have gone towards that instead. Or that is how I read it, at any rate.

    Personally, I think the discussion is purely academic - we all know he'd do the quad if he possibly can. It's a matter of principle with him.
    I understand that a quad takes a lot of energy, but it's not like he screwed up the quad (like Takahashi's fall) in the FS and it affected his program; it was a solid opening combo. Call a spade a spade; he was having an off day with his jumps (plenty of times he's landed 4T-3T and then the rest of his jumps weren't off-axis or landing on an inside edge). His second jumping pass had the off-axis to it (it was incredible how he was able to save it), and I highly doubt the first quad sapped his energy considering how clean the rest of the skate was (had he made mistakes later in the program, maybe then you could argue that his opening quad was detrimental to his stamina/ability to jump).

    If he had changed his 4T to a 3F, the 4.3 points lost on base value would have been likely the same if not more than any GOE gain from a cleaner axel/lutzes. I'm saying it's not a good point to say that if he hadn't done quads and skated clean, he would have won... that doesn't make sense to say if he gave up 8.6 points (SP+FS quads) he would have had a better chance of winning. Lysacek won because of better choreography and maximizing his points more efficiently than Plushenko, not because he skated cleanly without quads (and his axels weren't even that clean and he had -GOE's at that).

  4. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I don't get your point. He did do two triple axels in his 2010 program. Are you saying if he hadn't done quads he'd all of a sudden get +3's on his jumps that he didn't get them on? (Or jumps that weren't his usual level of clean like his first axel, his lutzes).

    As for transitions, I don't know you mean by Inman transitions. His LP was devoid of them, and clearly his Euros LP in 2012 showed he's capable of incorporating more.

    For his three jump combo if his 2L was so bad he could have made it a 2T instead.
    1-Yes I am saying that is possible because he was excellent jumper. So if he didn't go all out for a jump many considered horribly done and some judge giving him negativge GOE or no +GOE on it he could have been more powerful throughout the rest of the program.

    2-You are saying he never did anything - not one thing in between his jumps? LOL? THen what did everyone hate so much? Few programs have more moments that more people criticize as being horrendous then PlushenkoS 2010 FS! It's why I saw INman transitions because he was doing stuff in between the technical elements but not all spread eagles and ina bauers and three turns or split jumps. which are the only transitions he thinks should be worth points even though IJS clearly states full body movment including upper body are transitions.

    3-Obviously everyone was aware of the existence of a double toe - he never did a three jump combo of any kind in any way so doing three jumps in a row was thrown out!

    Quote Originally Posted by LRK View Post
    My guess is that gmyers means that if he hadn't done the quads, his other jumps would have been his usual level of clean, as the energy that went on the quad, could have gone towards that instead. Or that is how I read it, at any rate.

    Personally, I think the discussion is purely academic - we all know he'd do the quad if he possibly can. It's a matter of principle with him.
    The first sentence is right. Not only the jumps but the spins too and step sequences. ALl the other skaters got this and why most were abandoning quads and never doing them.

    His qualifying skate at 2005 worlds did not have a quad jump in it. He was injured there and not doing quads at all and would withdraw after falling on one in the SP but maybe looking at the 2008 and 2009 worlds and seeing that no quad meant point maximization and not leaving out points would have been better. He did criticize 2008 worlds and 2009 worlds and the lack of quads being done but the principal lead to losing. There was no point maximization.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I understand that a quad takes a lot of energy, but it's not like he screwed up the quad (like Takahashi's fall) in the FS and it affected his program; it was a solid opening combo. Call a spade a spade; he was having an off day with his jumps (plenty of times he's landed 4T-3T and then the rest of his jumps weren't off-axis or landing on an inside edge). His second jumping pass had the off-axis to it (it was incredible how he was able to save it), and I highly doubt the first quad sapped his energy considering how clean the rest of the skate was (had he made mistakes later in the program, maybe then you could argue that his opening quad was detrimental to his stamina/ability to jump).

    If he had changed his 4T to a 3F, the 4.3 points lost on base value would have been likely the same if not more than any GOE gain from a cleaner axel/lutzes. I'm saying it's not a good point to say that if he hadn't done quads and skated clean, he would have won... that doesn't make sense to say if he gave up 8.6 points (SP+FS quads) he would have had a better chance of winning. Lysacek won because of better choreography and maximizing his points more efficiently than Plushenko, not because he skated cleanly without quads (and his axels weren't even that clean and he had -GOE's at that).
    The quad being done is irrelevant to its quality and what it meant to the rest of the program. SOme judge gave him negative GOE and many no GOE because the combo wasn't OMG Amazing!! Then even though all the rest of the jumps were done they weren't OMG Amazing! So all the other skaters were getting that it didn't pay to do things if you didn't make it amazing. It's why quads were vanishing.

    No the choreography and PCS had nothing to do with Lysacek winning. They tied on PCS. You say it makes no sense for Plushenko to skate without quads because he can't win but Lysacek can? Plushenko could have beaten Lysacek at his own game. I am also saying Plushenko doesn't do the quad and does 3/5 than he gets back some of those points and more goe on spins and steps too.

  5. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    1-Yes I am saying that is possible because he was excellent jumper. So if he didn't go all out for a jump many considered horribly done and some judge giving him negativge GOE or no +GOE on it he could have been more powerful throughout the rest of the program.

    The first sentence is right. Not only the jumps but the spins too and step sequences. ALl the other skaters got this and why most were abandoning quads and never doing them.

    His qualifying skate at 2005 worlds did not have a quad jump in it. He was injured there and not doing quads at all and would withdraw after falling on one in the SP but maybe looking at the 2008 and 2009 worlds and seeing that no quad meant point maximization and not leaving out points would have been better. He did criticize 2008 worlds and 2009 worlds and the lack of quads being done but the principal lead to losing. There was no point maximization.

    The quad being done is irrelevant to its quality and what it meant to the rest of the program. SOme judge gave him negative GOE and many no GOE because the combo wasn't OMG Amazing!! Then even though all the rest of the jumps were done they weren't OMG Amazing! So all the other skaters were getting that it didn't pay to do things if you didn't make it amazing. It's why quads were vanishing.

    No the choreography and PCS had nothing to do with Lysacek winning. They tied on PCS. You say it makes no sense for Plushenko to skate without quads because he can't win but Lysacek can? Plushenko could have beaten Lysacek at his own game. I am also saying Plushenko doesn't do the quad and does 3/5 than he gets back some of those points and more goe on spins and steps too.
    A quad is what differentiated Plushenko's programs in the 2006/2010 Olympics. Without them, the magnitude of his programs pale in comparison. It's rare for him to win any segment with no quad attempts, and if you look at the points, he would have lost many short programs without the quad (I mean, look at Euros 2012 when he was behind Gachinski). Plus it's a jump he can land fairly consistently ... in 2010 LP he got positive GOE (got one -1 and one 0 probably because of the scratchy landing of the 4T, but it was still clean). I'm telling you that if Plushenko took out his quads, even if his other jumps were practically perfect the slightly higher GOE would only be equivalent, if not less, than the added points that a quad was worth over a 3F (likely the jump that would have replaced the quad).

    On that note, I'm actually curious as to why he competed at 2013 Euros with no quad in his SP, since even if he skated clean there was absolutely no way he would be leading or even close to leading without a quad. It would have made more sense to rest up his injury instead of putting out a skate that had no shot of leading anyways. (One presumes that Plushenko usually competes only if he thinks he has a shot at winning.)

    Most weren't abandoning quads to focus on sequences and the like; most didn't attempt quads because they couldn't do them consistently and the system was risky for 4-3 attempts vs. 3-3 if you weren't capable of landing quads consistently. Evan was capable of landing quads from past competitions, but clearly he wasn't comfortable or consistent with doing that at the Olympics, so it made more sense to go clean than do what Daisuke did that resulted in a poor FS for him. Plushenko had a consistent quad and it scored high, so of course it made sense to incorporate it into both programs.

  6. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    A quad is what differentiated Plushenko's programs in the 2006/2010 Olympics. Without them, the magnitude of his programs pale in comparison. It's rare for him to win any segment with no quad attempts, and if you look at the points, he would have lost many short programs without the quad (I mean, look at Euros 2012 when he was behind Gachinski). Plus it's a jump he can land fairly consistently ... in 2010 LP he got positive GOE (got one -1 and one 0 probably because of the scratchy landing of the 4T, but it was still clean). I'm telling you that if Plushenko took out his quads, even if his other jumps were practically perfect the slightly higher GOE would only be equivalent, if not less, than the added points that a quad was worth over a 3F (likely the jump that would have replaced the quad).

    On that note, I'm actually curious as to why he competed at 2013 Euros with no quad in his SP, since even if he skated clean there was absolutely no way he would be leading or even close to leading without a quad (and one imagines that Plushenko only competes when he thinks he could win, since there's no point aggravating his body otherwise).

    Most weren't abandoning quads to focus on sequences and the like; most didn't attempt quads because they couldn't do them consistently and the system was risky for 4-3 attempts vs. 3-3 if you weren't capable of landing quads consistently. Evan was capable of landing quads from past competitions, but clearly he wasn't comfortable or consistent with doing that at the Olympics, so it made more sense to go clean than do what Daisuke did that resulted in a poor FS for him. Plushenko had a consistent quad and it scored high, so of course it made sense to incorporate it into both programs.
    He is too injured to perform quads, OK? He made mistake on Luz and fell on 3A, do you think he could continue skating after trying to land a quad under such status? How many time are you going to ask this question and how many time you will ignore the answer and ask this stupid question again and again? Same for his SP in 2012 he was also too injured to perform a quad.

    He even would apologize for not performing quads when he was too injured, because he believes men's single skating needs quads. This is his belief, and no matter how stupid it will make him looks in some people's eyes, he stands to his principle. And I also respect Dai very much for his attempting quads even when he knew very well he could fail the jump. That is call athleticism.

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    A quad is what differentiated Plushenko's programs in the 2006/2010 Olympics. Without them, the magnitude of his programs pale in comparison. It's rare for him to win any segment with no quad attempts, and if you look at the points, he would have lost many short programs without the quad (I mean, look at Euros 2012 when he was behind Gachinski). Plus it's a jump he can land fairly consistently ... in 2010 LP he got positive GOE (got one -1 and one 0 probably because of the scratchy landing of the 4T, but it was still clean). I'm telling you that if Plushenko took out his quads, even if his other jumps were practically perfect the slightly higher GOE would only be equivalent, if not less, than the added points that a quad was worth over a 3F (likely the jump that would have replaced the quad).

    On that note, I'm actually curious as to why he competed at 2013 Euros with no quad in his SP, since even if he skated clean there was absolutely no way he would be leading or even close to leading without a quad. It would have made more sense to rest up his injury instead of putting out a skate that had no shot of leading anyways. (One presumes that Plushenko usually competes only if he thinks he has a shot at winning.)

    Most weren't abandoning quads to focus on sequences and the like; most didn't attempt quads because they couldn't do them consistently and the system was risky for 4-3 attempts vs. 3-3 if you weren't capable of landing quads consistently. Evan was capable of landing quads from past competitions, but clearly he wasn't comfortable or consistent with doing that at the Olympics, so it made more sense to go clean than do what Daisuke did that resulted in a poor FS for him. Plushenko had a consistent quad and it scored high, so of course it made sense to incorporate it into both programs.
    No it didn't because the points weren't there overall because of what it meant to the entire program. You can see how he can take quads out when he is injured like 2005 QR at worlds and do the backloading and everything and that is what one the Olympics and 2 previous worlds. He won that QR. It didn't make sense for him if he wanted to win and not just do them. Doing them and not winning was nothing meant nothing. It was not point maximization. Point maximization for oda lysacek buttle amodio brezina wier all meant no quads performed. Yes Plushenko could do them consistently but he got negative GOE from a judge and no GOE from others. I am sure that was meant to have much higher value than it did. 9.8 +4 +3 not just 9.8 plus 4! That's all he got was 9.8 + 4. That was not the design. And the whole program was based on that design so you had all the frontloading afterwards. When he doesn't do the quad he backloads. Especially the quad triple. Quad triple or 2 quads means frontloading quad or no quad means backloading. the whole thing was a mistake for point maximization. First he makes his layout 3/5 and then he takes a 3lz and makes it a combo with 3t and then he does a 3F as a solo. He just doesn't make the 4T a 3F. Why the 3F and not 3lz?

    Lyscek and Takahashi didn't have quads in the SPs. No one did in 2010 SP beside a few skaters. Lambiel with no 3A, JOubert who messed up, and I think Adiran Schultheiss.. It doesn't matter if there was a quad by gachinski in 2012 Euros and he beat plushenko without one. I am talking about the 2010 Olympics and quad performances. Yeah after 2010 quads were again part of point maximization but not in Vancouver or 2008 or 2009 worlds.

    He didn't do quads because he was injured and was trying to stay in the game and not be like he was from 2006 to 2009 where he never competed ever before the Olympic season. He was going to be in the game and not be attacked as an interloper who left and then came back. Remember how some people commented on his 2009 return? Oh he is just returning for the OLympic season and then will be gone again. It was a negative for him.

  8. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by yaya124 View Post
    He is too injured to perform quads, OK? He made mistake on Luz and fell on 3A, do you think he could continue skating after trying to land a quad under such status? How many time are you going to ask this question and how many time you will ignore the answer and ask this stupid question again and again? Same for his SP in 2012 he was also too injured to perform a quad.

    He even would apologize for not performing quads when he was too injured, because he believes men's single skating needs quads. This is his belief, and no matter how stupid it will make him looks in some people's eyes, he stands to his principle. And I also respect Dai very much for his attempting quads even when he knew very well he could fail the jump. That is call athleticism.
    You are correct! It needs to be said again!

    It's very obvious why Plushenko would not do a quad in a SP and lose the SP like in 2012 and try to save a quad for the FS but he was too injured to even do a 3A! The issue was just competing and staying in the game. But if he didn't even have a 3a come on!

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    To anwer the question in the title of the thread? I think it would take a major, major miracle for Plushenko to win the OGM.....or even place, for that matter.

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    My simple answer is NO.
    I just watched his 2006 Olympic LP and don't think even that performance would win a gold from today's standard and depth of field. His only strength was his jumps, but average if not below spins and skating skills. His programs also lack the kind of cheo that the top men now all have. Kevin R could do all the jumps he did back in 2006.
    And if he cannot get all his jumps back, he would be easily even out of top 8.

  11. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by hippomoomin View Post
    My simple answer is NO.
    I just watched his 2006 Olympic LP and don't think even that performance would win a gold from today's standard and depth of field. His only strength was his jumps, but average if not below spins and skating skills. His programs also lack the kind of cheo that the top men now all have. Kevin R could do all the jumps he did back in 2006.
    And if he cannot get all his jumps back, he would be easily even out of top 8.
    Look at that,please..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBJtNXvyWbg from last year

    in 2006 that was enough, by far...

  12. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by yaya124 View Post
    He is too injured to perform quads, OK? He made mistake on Luz and fell on 3A, do you think he could continue skating after trying to land a quad under such status? How many time are you going to ask this question and how many time you will ignore the answer and ask this stupid question again and again? Same for his SP in 2012 he was also too injured to perform a quad.

    He even would apologize for not performing quads when he was too injured, because he believes men's single skating needs quads. This is his belief, and no matter how stupid it will make him looks in some people's eyes, he stands to his principle. And I also respect Dai very much for his attempting quads even when he knew very well he could fail the jump. That is call athleticism.
    Exactly! But I'm saying again and again, I want to see him healthy at first!!! And if he can skate in 2014, and if he can do two strong and flawless programs ... we will see what happen ... The Olympics are always special ..

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    I think there are several things will affect Plushenko's chances of winning OGM. First of all is hehealthy enough to compete and land his jumps. Second, will he improve enough or will others make enough mistakes for him to win. If Tak, Chan and Hanyu skate close to clean they have a good shot of being ahead of Plushenko who since 2010 has skated fairly conservatively for him. If Chan skates cleanly, big if, like he did at Nationals a few years ago Plushy is gone without huge improvements. But with Chan not skating so cleanly and Dai with a questionable quad it is still a huge question mark if Plushy can win. But his back his achy breaky back. That will be key.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    I think there are several things will affect Plushenko's chances of winning OGM. First of all is hehealthy enough to compete and land his jumps. Second, will he improve enough or will others make enough mistakes for him to win. If Tak, Chan and Hanyu skate close to clean they have a good shot of being ahead of Plushenko who since 2010 has skated fairly conservatively for him. If Chan skates cleanly, big if, like he did at Nationals a few years ago Plushy is gone without huge improvements. But with Chan not skating so cleanly and Dai with a questionable quad it is still a huge question mark if Plushy can win. But his back his achy breaky back. That will be key.
    In Euros 2012 Plush received 176,.. points.

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    Quote Originally Posted by plushyfan View Post
    Exactly! But I'm saying again and again, I want to see him healthy at first!!! And if he can skate in 2014, and if he can do two strong and flawless programs ... we will see what happen ... The Olympics are always special ..
    if he is there it is 4 programs. He would have to do Team SP and LP and then individual SP and LP. He would have to be flawless in the individual event after doing a SP and LP in team. He is obviously not really commenting on this. Being forced to compete the most he's ever competed in 10 years! 2004 season was his last real season with GP and GPF and worlds and everything?

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