Has Sotnikova finally learned how to control her nerves?

Mao88 · Apr 11, 2013

Adelina Sotnikova has been looking more and more confident as the season has progressed. During the first half of the season, she was making mistakes in every program she skated, and had not skated a clean program in over a year. During the second half of the season, however, she has been looking far more self assured and is now producing clean programs. She also took the Silver medal at Europeans. If she starts producing back to back clean SP's and FS's, then she could quite conceivably break the 200 point mark at some point. With a score like that, then she would be a genuine medal contender at next seasons Olympics and World Championships.

gmyers · Apr 11, 2013

Her short programs have been getting better as the season as progressed. A major test though will be the second triple flip in her FS which starts her three jump combo. Several times she has messed up on the flip eliminating the three jump combo or messing up on her flips. That is now her biggest problem and something to look at in the FS. She has improved the SP and can do those well a lot of the time. Worlds was an exception but there her mistakes were worse with Urs even if she appeared to do everything well.

pangtongfan · Apr 11, 2013

In Sochi you are most likely to see Kim break the 220 mark again, maybe even the 225 mark. You will probably see a similar LP to Worlds, but a much better and higher scored short program. Asada and Kim are both capable of scoring over 210, maybe even over 215, if they skate somewhat clean. A score around 200 would not cut it. Anyway I wouldnt say it is obvious she can score 200 or higher. At Europeans she would have been just below 200 (probably) even had she done her triple flip, and that was with inflated Euros scoring.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 11, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Asada and Kim are both capable of scoring over 210, maybe even over 215, if they skate somewhat clean.

I'm assuming you meant "Asada and Kostner". If so, that cannot be substantiated. Adding up Asada's personal best SP and FS would only get 208.97 (i.e. "somewhat clean" won't cut it). Adding up Kostner's PBs = 200.51, which isn't even close to 210. Even at her own Nationals where Kostner was massively overscored and skated cleanly, she got 213.69.

Perhaps both are capable of 210 given their higher PCS now than in the past but that would require two clean skates with their hardest elements, and when was the last time Asada and (if ever) Kostner did two clean programs in international competition let alone a stage as big as the Olympics? Heck, even a clean FS?

sky_fly20 · Apr 11, 2013

Sotnikova is still a headcase
not until she wins a World title and prove me wrong otherwise.

plushyfan · Apr 11, 2013

I hope so..

pangtongfan · Apr 11, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
I'm assuming you meant "Asada and Kostner". If so, that cannot be substantiated. Adding up Asada's personal best SP and FS would only get 208.97 (i.e. "somewhat clean" won't cut it). Adding up Kostner's PBs = 200.51, which isn't even close to 210. Even at her own Nationals where Kostner was massively overscored and skated cleanly, she got 213.69.

Perhaps both are capable of 210 given their higher PCS now than in the past but that would require two clean skates with their hardest elements, and when was the last time Asada and (if ever) Kostner did two clean programs in international competition let alone a stage as big as the Olympics? Heck, even a clean FS?

I saw Kostners Nationals LP and it would score around 213 anywhere. Do you seriously think skating as well as she did at Nationals she would be anymore than 5 points behind Kim at Worlds, where Kim had a lowish SP score that would have actually trailed Kostner after the short without her fall. Then at Worlds add the 3 mistakes she made and she is well over 210. Even with only 1 of the 3 and she still would probably break 210.

As for Asada with all the mistakes she had at Worlds it is easy to see her scoring potential is atleast at the 210 mark as well.

I know this is a futile discussion with you though as you are always going out of your way to rip on those two, Kostner especialy. However if Sotnikovas scoring potential is supposably at around 200, I guarantee you that Asada and Kostner are atleast at 210, and she is even less likely to put together a clean competition than they are.

kwanatic · Apr 11, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
Sotnikova is still a headcase
not until she wins a World title and prove me wrong otherwise.

It's so hard to take your comments seriously when you say stuff like that...

FlattFan · Apr 11, 2013

Sotnikova can control her nerves better.
Her biggest problem is her technique.
Look at the flutz, she can't control the landing ever and with pitched forward landing, she will never have enough momentum to complete the 3T combo.
Her flip is also not good. The edge going into the flip is very unstable.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=2i8HroTQjCI#t=300s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bguVRNOhtpc#t=1888s

Same problem with the 2A-3T.
Again, due to bad technique.

This girl can skate like out, and will place 6th, max. So who cares if she can control her nerves?

LRK · Apr 11, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
Sotnikova is still a headcase
not until she wins a World title and prove me wrong otherwise.

Good grief! She does not owe you anything, and does not need to prove anything to you - especially not to meet whatever whimsical criteria you may choose to set.

sky_fly20 · Apr 11, 2013

kwanatic said:
It's so hard to take your comments seriously when you say stuff like that...

has she skated a clean FS in Seniors ? Never

with her FS prone mistakes, she is at best a Top 5 for Worlds
I don't see Sotnikova ever getting on a World Podium.

I'd eat my words if she ever podium at Worlds, if pigs fly.

bestskate8 · Apr 11, 2013

Adelina needs to do 3lz-3t clean. This jump combination Liza is doing all season with different success rate.

hanca · Apr 11, 2013

bestskate8 said:
Adelina needs to do 3lz-3t clean. This jump combination Liza is doing all season with different success rate.

Why should Adelina 'need' 3lz-3t clean? Ashley Wagner has not been doing the whole season any triple-triple (not even 3T-3T), and we are going to impose on Adelina that she 'needs' one of the hardest triple-triple combination 'clean'? Ridiculous!

hanca · Apr 11, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
has she skated a clean FS in Seniors ? Never

with her FS prone mistakes, she is at best a Top 5 for Worlds
I don't see Sotnikova ever getting on a World Podium.

I'd eat my words if she ever podium at Worlds, if pigs fly.

Has Parick Chan skated a clean competition within the whole season? I didn't think so. So why should Adelina be perfect? No one is perfect. I am not sure if you are aware, they don't mark according to how many mistakes the skater makes; they mark according to what the skater actually done. So even a program with a small mistake (like doubling one jump) can win a competition against a program that is clean but technically much easier.

drivingmissdaisy · Apr 11, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
Sotnikova is still a headcase
not until she wins a World title and prove me wrong otherwise.

Honestly, aside from Yuna, all the other top women make just as many mistakes as Adelina.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Apr 11, 2013

pangtongfan said:
I saw Kostners Nationals LP and it would score around 213 anywhere. Do you seriously think skating as well as she did at Nationals she would be anymore than 5 points behind Kim at Worlds, where Kim had a lowish SP score that would have actually trailed Kostner after the short without her fall. Then at Worlds add the 3 mistakes she made and she is well over 210. Even with only 1 of the 3 and she still would probably break 210.

As for Asada with all the mistakes she had at Worlds it is easy to see her scoring potential is atleast at the 210 mark as well.

I know this is a futile discussion with you though as you are always going out of your way to rip on those two, Kostner especialy. However if Sotnikovas scoring potential is supposably at around 200, I guarantee you that Asada and Kostner are atleast at 210, and she is even less likely to put together a clean competition than they are.

No, that's not what I was saying... what I was saying is that she hasn't put together two clean programs internationally so it is ridiculous to speculate. Are we going to say Tuktamysheva/Osmond could have gotten World silver because their Russian Nationals/Skate Canada Challenge performances got 198? To be honest, I don't think her PCS would have been much higher (I doubt her Nationals inflation would have carried over at Worlds to the same extent) had she gone clean - although, yes, it likely would have cleared 210.

But, hold on, you're saying if we added back just 1 of the 3 mistakes she would break 210?!? Um, you know she scored 198, right? Say we gave back her most costly mistake -- the 3S<< -- that would have added back about 5 points (removing the deduction, and considering +GOE). Now her score is 203... so she needs 7 points higher to break 2010... her PCS was 70.69. You're essentially saying had she landed her 3S, her PCS would have probably risen from 70.69 to 77.69. :laugh:

Wait, you're actually accusing me of always going out of my way to rip on skaters?

While I've questioned their gifted placements when they make errors (Kostner's SP/Asada's NHK), I've continually complimented both, lauding Mao's improvement, and saying multiple times that I think Kostner is the finest overall skater right now. You, on the other hand, have debased skaters' achievements, said Narumi Takahashi will be next seen in last place if we even hear from her again, and have bashed Patrick Chan to hyperbolic proportions. I'm surprised you didn't just vomit on your own hypocrisy. :rolleye:

Krislite · Apr 11, 2013

hanca said:
Why should Adelina 'need' 3lz-3t clean? Ashley Wagner has not been doing the whole season any triple-triple (not even 3T-3T), and we are going to impose on Adelina that she 'needs' one of the hardest triple-triple combination 'clean'? Ridiculous!

To win or place higher than she's currently doing, yes she "needs" it to be clean. Her 3lz+3t is sloppy compared to Gracie's or Liza's. She lands her 3Lutz hard learning forward and almost always under-rotates her back-end 3Toe. The flow/momentum between the jumps is poor.

I don't get why she doesn't go for a 3Flip+3Toe and a solo 3Lutz instead. She gets much better landing on the Flip and might have a better chance of rotating the 3Toe. Also, with a 3Lz+3T combo she loses a lot in GOE because of having both an edge call and a < (UR) call.

drivingmissdaisy · Apr 11, 2013

Krislite said:
Also, with a 3Lz+3T combo she loses a lot in GOE because of having both an edge call and a < (UR) call.

Actually I think the opposite is true; if you make two mistakes on one element you only get penalized once. She would get -2 for the UR, or -2 for the "e", or -2 for both a UR and an "e". This keeps her 3F with +GOE.

FlattFan · Apr 11, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
Actually I think the opposite is true; if you make two mistakes on one element you only get penalized once. She would get -2 for the UR, or -2 for the "e", or -2 for both a UR and an "e". This keeps her 3F with +GOE.

That and 3F is so unstable, does she really want a combo on an unstable jump?
Her team figured it out.

FlattFan · Apr 11, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
Honestly, aside from Yuna, all the other top women make just as many mistakes as Adelina.

But their non-mistake elements are significantly stronger than hers. For her to have a fighting chance, she can't afford any mistakes, on top of improving from her best.

Has Sotnikova finally learned how to control her nerves?

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