Has Sotnikova finally learned how to control her nerves?

gmyers · Apr 15, 2013

ForeverFish said:
Is this guaranteed?

1-3. Yuna, Mao, Carolina (though not necessarily in that order)
4-7. Ashley (could be a dark horse for the bronze), Gracie, Kanako (if she doesn't get UR'd to hell and back), Akiko
8-11. Adelina, Elizaveta, Zijun, Kaetlyn (in that order)

I agree that Adelina's jumping technique effectively prohibits her from landing a clean 3-3 or 2A-3T, but she should still crack the top ten at the Olympics. Otherwise, all of the ladies below her would have to have the SOTLs.

10 or lower may be too low but in the realm of possibility because of all her problems. The flutzing is now always called where it had been inconsistent and that's a deduction. Underrotating toes is now very consistent off 2a and 3lz. So that's more deduction. Falling or singling flips is an issue.

At the worlds sp she underrotated her triple toe off a triple toe. She can't do any 3/3 combos without risking underrotating the second jump. She can't even attempt 3lz 3 loop anymore.

She can only go so high with level 4 spins and steps rotating first halfs of combos 3/3 or 2/3, flutzing, maybe doing a triple flip, 2a, Loop and salchow. Judging by her aguilera program she doesn't have any good advice on programs for good pcs. She's barely keeping her head above water if she wants top 10 in the world.

It's not guaranteed that she won't make the top 10 but that's very possible. She was 6th in the fs at the wtt! After a good short program she falters in the fs because all her flaws are everywhere from jumps to bad choreographers/music selecting.

chuckm · Apr 16, 2013

IMO "At Last" is not a piece of music that should be performed by a 16-year-old. The song is a paean to love found later in life after a series of failed relationships, and is not appropriate for a teen skater.

sky_fly20 · Apr 16, 2013

Sotnikova's money combo is 3lz-3lo but she hasn't tried it at all this season
she cannot do other 3-3 because the combo is unstable with landing on 3T
her closest to stable 3-3 is the 3T-3T but not as near as the success of money combo of Tuk's 3Lz-3T or Julia's 2A-3T-2T, she doesn't get edge calls in her 3Flip but it is very unstable, falls or pops it, some like Julia or Gracie get edge calls from their Flips but they never fall from it.

She needs a Flip overhaul, its a lose-lose situation if she keeps trying so many Flips with unstable technique.

Mirunna · Apr 16, 2013

ForeverFish said:
She's missed the 3F 80% of the times she's attempted it

She landed 2 out of 3 flips at RN, Euros, Worlds and WTT. She landed 1 out of 3 at Nebelhorn, Skate America and Rostelecom Cup. So out of 21 3Flips attempted she landed a total of 11. So her success ratio was a bit more than 50%. However she landed more flips in the latter half of the season since she seems to overcome her mental block with her 3F in the SP and once she finally landed the first time, she didn't missed it again so far. She didn't land yet 2 3F in the LP this season but I believe she will do it next season. It might also be a mental block, like Kanako had the entire season with the 3F-1A sequence in the LP. Kanako did this mistake every single LP skate skates this season and I hardly believe she is unable to land a 2A in her sleep.
Gracie is, of course, beating Adelina so far. Her Lp at Worlds and WTT were very very good, with clean and stable jumps. And it doesn't help that Adelina has a crappy LP. Once again, remember that at her debut at Euros she was in first place after the SP and when everybody expected her to self distruct she skated the best LP in her career. She handled pressure very very well. The same think at WTT, she was first after the SP and did a decent job in the LP, the only mistake she made thanks to nerves was falling on the 3F. Ur'd jumps are technical issues and she will have them regardless of how nervous/relaxed she is, unless she takes some time and fix them.

pangtongfan · Apr 16, 2013

venlac said:
I also think that she is overscored in spin.
but not only her, top skaters often overscore in spin or step.

I agree Kim is overscored in spins. She is also overscored in spirals over the years. They are quite good, just not worthy of the scores she sometimes gets. However if we are doing realistic assessments of scores it makes sense to guage what the judges are going to do, and typically do, as wrong as they sometimes are. Unfortunately protocal scoring is alive and as strong as ever in figure skating.

pangtongfan · Apr 16, 2013

silverlake22 said:
You are forgetting US lady #3, who could knock down Sotnikova and Tuk (or whichever 2 Russians go), particularly if Gao makes the team. Then there is also Korpi, and even Marchei if she's on could beat a meh Sotnikova or Tuk realistically. So top 10 is not a lock necessary, though I would tend to think it is likely that she would make it. But she's not very consistent so at this point I'm not sure if she is even going to make the team because I really think Julia is going to take one of the two spots. Question is who she will knock out.

I agree Julia is making that team. So one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva will be knocked out (or even both, but more likely one). At this point Sotnikova probably is the more likely to make it, but that could change.

gmyers · Apr 16, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
Sotnikova's money combo is 3lz-3lo but she hasn't tried it at all this season
she cannot do other 3-3 because the combo is unstable with landing on 3T
her closest to stable 3-3 is the 3T-3T but not as near as the success of money combo of Tuk's 3Lz-3T or Julia's 2A-3T-2T, she doesn't get edge calls in her 3Flip but it is very unstable, falls or pops it, some like Julia or Gracie get edge calls from their Flips but they never fall from it.

She needs a Flip overhaul, its a lose-lose situation if she keeps trying so many Flips with unstable technique.

True! But I doubt she will try to improve it. But it may cost her a trip to Sochi!

Mirunna said:
She landed 2 out of 3 flips at RN, Euros, Worlds and WTT. She landed 1 out of 3 at Nebelhorn, Skate America and Rostelecom Cup. So out of 21 3Flips attempted she landed a total of 11. So her success ratio was a bit more than 50%. However she landed more flips in the latter half of the season since she seems to overcome her mental block with her 3F in the SP and once she finally landed the first time, she didn't missed it again so far. She didn't land yet 2 3F in the LP this season but I believe she will do it next season. It might also be a mental block, like Kanako had the entire season with the 3F-1A sequence in the LP. Kanako did this mistake every single LP skate skates this season and I hardly believe she is unable to land a 2A in her sleep.
Gracie is, of course, beating Adelina so far. Her Lp at Worlds and WTT were very very good, with clean and stable jumps. And it doesn't help that Adelina has a crappy LP. Once again, remember that at her debut at Euros she was in first place after the SP and when everybody expected her to self distruct she skated the best LP in her career. She handled pressure very very well. The same think at WTT, she was first after the SP and did a decent job in the LP, the only mistake she made thanks to nerves was falling on the 3F. Ur'd jumps are technical issues and she will have them regardless of how nervous/relaxed she is, unless she takes some time and fix them.

She was 1st the SP! Then she falls down to 6th in the LP! That is not good. If it was a real podium she would have been off it! She was 4th. Her problem is that she cant replace anything she can't trust because then she will have lower base value! SO there is no way for her to really improve! She's not like Mao with a 3A. She skates on pure hope things wont go wrong! She can't trust rotation calls, she can't trust edge calls, she can't trust landing or doing a 3 flip. This is why I said she can't place that highly in Sochi! How can she fix all her problems by December? That's when Adelina has to fix all her technical issues and when Liza needs to fix her SP nerves!

sky_fly20 · Apr 16, 2013

gmyers said:
True! But I doubt she will try to improve it. But it may cost her a trip to Sochi!

come to think of it, I think Loenova does have a chance, no one was consistent enough this season, it really depends on who will bring it next season, even Pogorilaya has chance though she will get very low pcs in seniors, also the Julia bashing with small jumps taht she doesnt have chnace next season I never understand, her jumps are not even smaller than Radionova's, sure Julia has a horrible 2A but so does Sornikova's unstable 3F, lack of reliable 3-3 and Liza bombs the SP

Mirunna · Apr 16, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
also the Julia bashing with small jumps taht she doesnt have chnace next season I never understand, her jumps are not even smaller than Radionova's, sure Julia has a horrible 2A but so does Sornikova's unstable 3F, lack of reliable 3-3 and Liza bombs the SP

I agree, Julia has a chance, in fact, every lady has an equal shot to make it. What we are talking about is what WE think it will happen based on how this girls skated this season. Who knows by December. Julia's problem is bad trimming. She is having a growth spurt and got injured the season before the Olympics. And she probably isn't done growing. At this point we don't know what she will show us next season. What she does have is a great attitude and fighting spirit, she is tough and won't go down without a big fight. Even if she makes it to Sochi I don't see her making the podium. She has too many things to improve in her skating and not too much time left. But i don't see any russian lady making the podium at Sochi. I don't think any of them is ready. Plus, there are too many veterans in the game: Yuna, Caro, Mao, Akiko, Ashley. And there's Gracie Gold who is skating better from one competition to another.
Adelina can work with Tarasova on her jumps. Tarasova was the only coach Mao had who almost fixed her lutz in one summer. Mao got credit that season two times for her lutz (she only tried one in the SP and she landed it twice without receiving an edge call). Adelina is younger and jumps higher than Mao. I don't know if it's gonna be enough for December but it's not impossible. Or she could try to skate as clean as possible (she is getting better at this) with the jumps she has and have a nice Olympic experience even though she won't medal. And after that, take some time to fix her jumps and improve her overall skating by 2018 Olympics. She'll be 21 by then

And 25 by 2021

silverlake22 · Apr 16, 2013

Next season will be interesting because there are a number of things that could affect who makes Sochi like: 1.) If Adelina can work on technique and controlling her nerves 2.) If Liza continues to deal with body changes and if so will they effect her jumps, if she can control her nerves, and if she can stop bombing SPs 3.) Can Leonova bounce back convincingly enough to be considered for the team? 4.) Can Korobeynikova find consistency and bring back her hard content to be a contender? 5.) Will Julia continue to be hampered by growth and injuries, or can she retain all her hard content and return to being a rock in competition? 6.) Will Pogorilaya move up to the senior GP and can she continue to build on the great success she had this season or will puberty and expectations derail her? 7.) Can Gosviani continue her upward ascent and improve enough to be considered a real contender for the team?

The outcome of these questions will make a big difference. However, I will say I don't worry much about Julia or Anna in regards to puberty because their current builds don't suggest they will grow out a lot and struggle to remain slender. Julia is very petite all around with small feet and proportional limbs, she will likely grow a bit more but I think she will stay petite and slender even after she finishes growing. Anna has long legs and broader shoulders but I think height is more of a concern than weight, she is very narrow, will likely grow into build like Shelepen or Gao, maybe Korobeynikova, though probably not so tall. So I think for these two the question is more dealing with pressure/nerves and avoiding injuries. Plus idk about PCS with Anna, if she lands her jumps so consistently, they may go up a lot like Zijun Li's did this season.

nipman · Apr 16, 2013

Hi everyone. I'm new here. I just want to ask 2 questions:
1- Can Adelina learn another type of combo? 3Lz-1Lo-3S, for example? I think that her 3S is safe enough, but perhaps she won't have enough time.
2- Do you think that her problem with the Flip is caused by the entry? I'm not a specialist at all, but it's just... weird! I really miss Irina's entry for the Flip.

FlattFan · Apr 16, 2013

I think she just have to be smart in planning her LP.
Repeat the loop and the toe, guarantee good GOE.

Why repeat the flip when it's so unstable?

3Lutz-2Toe-2Loop
3F
....
3Lo-2Lo
3Sal
3T-2A
3Lo
3T

Much higher base value than 3Lz-3T< and 2A-3T<
This way, she can do her best jump (3Lo) twice, do the solo 3T and get good GOE.
7 rotated triples with -GOE only on the 3Flutz would be the way to go.

FSGMT · Apr 16, 2013

nipman said:
Hi everyone. I'm new here. I just want to ask 2 questions:
1- Can Adelina learn another type of combo? 3Lz-1Lo-3S, for example? I think that her 3S is safe enough, but perhaps she won't have enough time.
2- Do you think that her problem with the Flip is caused by the entry? I'm not a specialist at all, but it's just... weird! I really miss Irina's entry for the Flip.

First of all, welcome!

Yes, she could learn a 3Lz+1Lo+3S, but she couldn't use in the SP (it has to be a two-jumps combination), but for some reason I don't think that it would be a good combo for her, because she often loses a lot of speed after the 3Flutz, and doing the half loop would make her almost still on the ice, she wouldn't have enough speed to do a 3S...
I think that the unstableness of the edge in the take-off is what makes her 3F so unstable, but it's more a mental problem, I think, because it's the second jump in the SP and it's the first jump in the second half of the FS...

gmyers · Apr 16, 2013

Sotnikova has a 5/2 layout and the 2nd flip is not in the second half- though I thought I was.

FSGMT · Apr 16, 2013

gmyers said:
Sotnikova has a 5/2 layout and the 2nd flip is not in the second half- though I thought I was.

Yes, this is a thing that has always surprised me: her choaches/choreographers look really dumb about this (just like Mao's), because some of her jumps are often only some seconds before the halfway time: just put a couple of transitions or a spin there, just to be sure that you receive that 0.x more! Adelina actually lost a European title because of this... :bang:

gmyers · Apr 16, 2013

FlattFan said:
I think she just have to be smart in planning her LP.
Repeat the loop and the toe, guarantee good GOE.

Why repeat the flip when it's so unstable?

3Lutz-2Toe-2Loop
3F
....
3Lo-2Lo
3Sal
3T-2A
3Lo
3T

Much higher base value than 3Lz-3T< and 2A-3T<
This way, she can do her best jump (3Lo) twice, do the solo 3T and get good GOE.
7 rotated triples with -GOE only on the 3Flutz would be the way to go.

She can't get away with drastically reducing her Difficulty in this way! She's not kostner. This is not even top 10 at Russian nationals material. A solo triple toe? Totally insane.

FSGMT said:
Yes, this is a thing that has always surprised me: her choaches/choreographers look really dumb about this (just like Mao's), because some of her jumps are often only some seconds before the halfway time: just put a couple of transitions or a spin there, just to be sure that you receive that 0.x more! Adelina actually lost a European title because of this...

5/2 is not good and it's true that the bonus divides a series of jumps! Huge problems to fix in program layout and music choice. Just real mistakes-makes it seem like she has terrible coaches.

ForeverFish · Apr 16, 2013

Mirunna said:
She landed 2 out of 3 flips at RN, Euros, Worlds and WTT. She landed 1 out of 3 at Nebelhorn, Skate America and Rostelecom Cup. So out of 21 3Flips attempted she landed a total of 11. So her success ratio was a bit more than 50%. However she landed more flips in the latter half of the season since she seems to overcome her mental block with her 3F in the SP and once she finally landed the first time, she didn't missed it again so far. She didn't land yet 2 3F in the LP this season but I believe she will do it next season. It might also be a mental block, like Kanako had the entire season with the 3F-1A sequence in the LP. Kanako did this mistake every single LP skate skates this season and I hardly believe she is unable to land a 2A in her sleep.
Gracie is, of course, beating Adelina so far. Her Lp at Worlds and WTT were very very good, with clean and stable jumps. And it doesn't help that Adelina has a crappy LP. Once again, remember that at her debut at Euros she was in first place after the SP and when everybody expected her to self distruct she skated the best LP in her career. She handled pressure very very well. The same think at WTT, she was first after the SP and did a decent job in the LP, the only mistake she made thanks to nerves was falling on the 3F. Ur'd jumps are technical issues and she will have them regardless of how nervous/relaxed she is, unless she takes some time and fix them.

I didn't actually bother to do the math, so you're probably right. A 50% success rate on a solo jump, however, is still very poor. Adelina jumps huge and she's much, much better than that.

I'd have to disagree that Adelina did a decent job in the FS at WTT. Her two biggest combos were dinged with underrotations, she flutzed, and she missed the 3F (again). She had almost seven points on Gracie Gold after the SP, but gave all of them up (and then some) and dropped to fourth overall. If Adelina wants an example of a debut senior learning consistency, she should look at Gracie--seventh at her first GP, ninth in the SP at Nationals, but figured it out in time to place sixth at Worlds. That's the kind of progress we should be seeing throughout the season from everyone (unless you're Yuna and are already verging on perfection).

ForeverFish · Apr 16, 2013

nipman said:
Hi everyone. I'm new here. I just want to ask 2 questions:
1- Can Adelina learn another type of combo? 3Lz-1Lo-3S, for example? I think that her 3S is safe enough, but perhaps she won't have enough time.
2- Do you think that her problem with the Flip is caused by the entry? I'm not a specialist at all, but it's just... weird! I really miss Irina's entry for the Flip.

Hi there, nipman! Welcome to GS!

As for your questions:

1. The 3Lz-1Lo-3S is a very hard combo to master--Gracie Gold had a 3F-1Lo-3S in her repertoire earlier in the season, but ended up sacrificing it for the 2A-3T because it was just SO DIFFICULT to hit with any semblance of consistency. Adelina, unfortunately, would probably have the same issue with that combo as with her 3Lz-3T. She pitches herself too far forward on the landing of the 3Lz to have stability in her second jump, which has led (as we've seen) to UR deductions. If she attempted a 3Lz-1Lo-3S with her current technique, the front-heavy distribution of her body weight would likely result in a wonky 1Lo and 3S, or a physical inability to land them clean.

2. I think a lot of people on this forum, myself included, have been scrutinizing Adelina's 3F ever since she started missing them, but with little success. I used to think that it was a technical error until I saw her face going into the connecting steps for the 3F--huge eyes, deer in headlights, visibly uncertain before she's even put her toe pick in. Sometimes she gets in a few rotations before falling out; sometimes she pops the jump and moves on. I think (and this is just my humble opinion, since I'm not an expert either) that Adelina's developed some mental block regarding the 3F that COULD have been caused by incorrect technique. The fact that she can hold on to her backend 3T's even with the UR'd 3Lz and 2A make this psychological 3F theory a more convincing one for me.

chuckm · Apr 16, 2013

It's interesting that Osmond has a similar problem with her solo 3f. She does OK with the flip in combination, but she's fallen three times this season on that solo flip, and doubled it at WTT. Maybe it's because they jump higher on the flip when there is a second jump to come, but don't get the same height for the solo attempt.

Mirunna · Apr 17, 2013

ForeverFish said:
I'd have to disagree that Adelina did a decent job in the FS at WTT. Her two biggest combos were dinged with underrotations, she flutzed, and she missed the 3F (again). She had almost seven points on Gracie Gold after the SP, but gave all of them up (and then some) and dropped to fourth overall. If Adelina wants an example of a debut senior learning consistency, she should look at Gracie--seventh at her first GP, ninth in the SP at Nationals, but figured it out in time to place sixth at Worlds. That's the kind of progress we should be seeing throughout the season from everyone (unless you're Yuna and are already verging on perfection).

Adelina doesn't have Gracie's jumps. And when I said she did a decent job, I was referring to the topic's title. Ur'd jumps are not because of nerves but because of bad technique. Even if she flutzed and Ured 2 combos in the LP she went for everything and landed everything besides the first 3F. Compared to last season when she bombed almost every LP she skated, there is a huge progress in her mental strength. She does not succumb to pressure any more. She isn't making Gracie's progress, but that does not mean she is not getting better. I agree with FlattFan that her team must start playing to her strength and plan her layout smarter. Until she starts fixing her jumps she could maximize the points with what she can do. First she should get better programs and then replace one of her 3F with a 3L. And replace the 2A-3T with maybe a 3T-2A sequence. She looses some points in base value but can make it up with positive GOE. Spins, steps and spirals are very very good with excellent scoring potential. A clean LP from her even with a lowered content can get her easily 125+ points. Kanako did it and she was not clean (at Worlds).
I found it silly that sometimes she landed the first 3F in the LP as a solo jump and didn't do a 3 jump combo there. And then she fell on the next 3F missing huge points there for not doing a combo (like she did in London). I could understand the strategy if her second 3F would be in the second half of the program but since it wasn't, it made no sense. You landed the problematic jump well, add the 2T-2L just in case the second one won't work. Her team made fundamental errors with Adelina this season. She should have went for the 3 jump combo with the first flip. If she fell, try to do the combo with the next one.

Has Sotnikova finally learned how to control her nerves?

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