Wagner's Olympic Strategy: Play It Safe?

vera01 said:

No, they can't. Had Gracie placed 7th instead of 6th, we might be able to see both Gracie and Ashley at SA. But both Gracie and Ashley placed top 4~6 at Worlds, so they can't be assigned to same GP.

This also means that they're going to end up in a same competition as Yuna, Mao, or Caro-so unless Caro and Mao have bad GP season like they did at 2009-2010 season, Ashley should get 3+3 or 2A+3T, otherwise she might not even qualify for GPF.

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Thanks. That's a shame about Ashley and Gracie, but I'm not complaining about their Worlds placements. It would also be beneficial for both of them to skate against the Big Three and see how they stack up. And maybe Gracie will finally get her picture with Yuna, on a GP podium.

The GPF qualifiers SHOULD be Yuna, Carolina, Ashley, Mao, Akiko, and Gracie--in that order.

Krislite said:

One doesn't plan for the Olympics the week or month before. Her team needs to come up with a strategy now and design her training around it. Of course one should also have Plan B and C and so on. But Ashley's team should already have an a plan in mind for how she'll skate next season and at the Olympics. "Playing it safe" is a back-up plan to be used only when your competitors have made major mistakes. You won't know that until the actual competition. Otherwise, a skater should always plan to maximize her potential if her goal is to place as high as possible.

Given this, Ashley should be practicing 3F+3T and 2A+3T and getting it as consistent as possible. She should do them at the Grand Prix and get comfortable executing them in competition. She can always play it safe later if she can afford to. She always has that "safe" option, but the "podium option" won't be available (except in special circumstance) unless she can manage to land the big combos at Sochi.

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Another badly timed injury could happen to Ashley in December for all we know. Some top competitor or another could blow a knee or hurt a hip or rupture an achilles and not be in the field at Sochi at all. Someone could withdraw for some random personal reason. Some upstart junior at home could be another Gracie Gold and steal Ashley's spot on the team. Ashley could skate last after every top contender had a meltdown and be in a position to take home a medal with just a clean skate.

I didn't say a word about training. And I did say that it is likely that she will work for a higher base tech score next season--which most people would interpret as training those elements. But that doesn't mean we can predict the future and say exactly what she should or should not do at one competition that is 300 days away with an entire skating season in between.

vera01 said:

No, they can't. Had Gracie placed 7th instead of 6th, we might be able to see both Gracie and Ashley at SA. But both Gracie and Ashley placed top 4~6 at Worlds, so they can't be assigned to same GP.

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That doesn't seem to be a hard and fast rule though. 2012 Worlds had Takahashi 2nd, Hanyu 3rd, Joubert 4th and Amodio 5th. Theoretically Takahashi and Hanyu would have to be assigned different GPs, and the same for Joubert and Amodio. Yet during this GP season, we saw both Japanese men at NHK and both Frenchmen at TEB. The popular theory was that Japan and France agreed to switch their skater assignments so both could have two of their own stars at their events (especially for Japan, where Takahashi was the biggest draw but NHK was in Hanyu's hometown). With GP selection rules being rather unclear and rarely followed to a T, I imagine USFS might try to lobby for both Ashley and Gracie to be at Skate America so they can promote a rivalry.

On the other hand, they do not necessarily need both Ashley and Gracie at Skate America. Christina Gao had a good season this year and being the silver medalist at Skate America 2012, they could show her as hungry for her first GP win and a spot on the Olympic team. And with SA being in Detroit, Alissa Czisny is another good choice (whether as the 2nd US lady or the host pick), she's still a 2x US Champion, SA winner, GPF champ and the looking-for-redemption storyline is always good for fluff pieces.

Mathman said:

Wait. Are you saying every skater should stop skating if she's not as good as Joannie Rochette was in 2010? That would leave a small field.

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No. I said she shouldn't be there if the goal is to collect Ralph Lauren sweater.
This is the Olympics, have some respect. Bring ur best or stay home.

ForeverFish said:

We also need to consider that Ashley had no impetus to up her technical content for a competition like WTT, the last of the season. Yes, she went for the 3-3 in the short program, but that was most likely to see if she COULD do it (which she did, albeit with a UR call). She'll never have to train these programs again--I'm sure that she will spend the summer working on her technical difficulty.

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If you ever hope to have a 3x3, low pressure events are where you should bring it out.

FlattFan said:

No. I said she shouldn't be there if the goal is to collect Ralph Lauren sweater.
This is the Olympics, have some respect. Bring ur best or stay home.

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But the Olympics haven't happened yet. We don't know what she is going to do at this point.

This is not a prediction thread (or at least, it wasn't intended to be one), but a chance to devise a strategy that would perhaps maximize her chances for a medal at the Olys.

By the end of the gp, if she hasn't put any 3x3 out and if she bombed Nat like this year, should the us pull her up and send her to the Olympics? Or should they give that chance to a young one like Angela or Courtney?

louisa05 said:

Another badly timed injury could happen to Ashley in December for all we know. Some top competitor or another could blow a knee or hurt a hip or rupture an achilles and not be in the field at Sochi at all. Someone could withdraw for some random personal reason. Some upstart junior at home could be another Gracie Gold and steal Ashley's spot on the team. Ashley could skate last after every top contender had a meltdown and be in a position to take home a medal with just a clean skate.

I didn't say a word about training. And I did say that it is likely that she will work for a higher base tech score next season--which most people would interpret as training those elements. But that doesn't mean we can predict the future and say exactly what she should or should not do at one competition that is 300 days away with an entire skating season in between.

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Huh? The right plan doesn't depend on any ability to predict the future. Who's talking about predicting the future anyways?

It doesn't matter that one cannot predict the future. That's utterly irrelevant to how Ashley's team should plan for the Olympics. An action plan always takes into account the likelihood and probable scenarios and outcomes, while having alternatives in place in case other events pan out (injuries, withdrawals, etc.). This is so fundamental to rational decision making with respect to the future that I'm wondering why we seem to be talking past each other.

After all, I could die tomorrow or sooner than expected. Should I not plan or save for retirement since I might die long before then? Who knows what the world will be like 40 years from now when I'll be near retirement? Should I not plan for my career since I can't predict the future? Who knows what the economy will be like a decade or two from now? Should I not work for very long-term goals since the future is always uncertain? Of course not. Rationality demands only contingency plans for the unexpected. We have all kinds of insurance/hedges against unlikely events. We have alternative plans and back-up plans when the unexpected happens. It doesn't matter that we can't predict the future. We can only plan and take action based on the assumption that the most likely scenario will turn out to be the case.

Ashley's team can and should strategize now and base their strategy on the most likely scenario, namely that Yuna, Mao and Carolina will maintain or up their game and Gracie will catch up to her if she continues to play it safe. In the event that doesn't turn out to be the case, and many favorites or contenders have a poor showing next season, or she's unable to gain consistency on her new combos, she always has the option to play it safe and not go for the triple-triples. That would be a good back-up plan for her. But she cannot afford to wait until December to decide whether to change up her jump layout or play it safe just because she can't predict the future. That would be foolish.

FlattFan said:

If you ever hope to have a 3x3, low pressure events are where you should bring it out.

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Not when it's the last event of the season. I'm not saying that she SHOULDN'T have, only that there would be no reason to. It's better to finish the season consistently and then focus solely upping the technical content for the Olympic programs, rather than throwing together a harder jump layout that you haven't spent enough time training. The summer events are where Ashley can practice her 3-3--not the WTT, where the low pressure doesn't change the fact that they're still competing for international cred.

FlattFan said:

No. I said she shouldn't be there if the goal is to collect Ralph Lauren sweater.
This is the Olympics, have some respect. Bring ur best or stay home.

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When did Ashley ever say she was going to the Olympics to buy clothes? *confused* If that was sarcasm, that wasn't the best sarcasm.

In her post-skate NBC interview at the World championship, Wagner was asked what she needed to do to take the "next step" after her consecutive just-OTP finishes and her response was a consistent 3-3 next season so she's "mentally prepared" by the time Nats and Olys roll around. Again, is this something she can not only get comfortable with, but nail each time without any calls? There's definitely no harm in trying at the GPs at least, though.

She knows what needs to be done - question is, what is the best plan of attack?

I say go for the 3-3 in the SP during all pre-season and GP comps and see what happens. If she keeps getting called on it, perhaps it's not worth the risk. If she can get it clean & consistent, it's that many more points in her back pocket. (I think this past season is when she should have really gone for it, but I digress)

For the FS, how about ditching the 2A/3T and doing another 3-3 instead? How would that work out points-wise? Or maybe the SP is where to go for the 3-3 since she's already scoring high 120s in the FS without any hard jumps anyway.


This is the sort of stuff Team Wagner will need to sort out - and I want to see what you guys think her best option(s) is(are) at this point.

She needs 3-3 for the SP, doesn't need it for the LP.

What she needs in the LP is beautiful choreography, transitions, and 5 jumping passes in the second half of the program, with all of the combo slots filled with the hardest doubles possible; she should be doing 3Flip+2Loop+2Loop, 3Loop+2Axel (seq) and 3Toe+2Axel (seq) as her combination jumps in the LP.

R.D. said:

For the FS, how about ditching the 2A/3T and doing another 3-3 instead? How would that work out points-wise? Or maybe the SP is where to go for the 3-3 since she's already scoring high 120s in the FS without any hard jumps anyway.


This is the sort of stuff Team Wagner will need to sort out - and I want to see what you guys think her best option(s) is(are) at this point.

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I've been wondering if she should try 3Loop-3Toe instead. Her loop is one of her best jumps, why waste the repeat on a 3Loop-2Axel sequence that is losing 20% value? She'd get more points out of 3Lo-3T and 2A-2A sequence than 2A-3T and 3Lo-2A sequence.

She also might be better served to do double loops on her combinations. One thing that helps Mao and Kanako pointswise is doing double loops on the backend of their combos. Even though they aren't 3-3s, they are worth 0.50 each more than double toe loops. Ashley used to try 3Lutz-3Loop back in 2007-8, so backend double loops shouldn't be difficult for her. If she wants to skate conservative and not do 3-3's, every fraction of a point counts. Or I wonder if she could try 2Axel-3Loop. An underrotated triple loop is still worth 3.57 points. She's said her double-footing is very psychological and it seems to be a big problem with her 2A-3T and 3F-3T attempts, maybe she needs to try something else just to mix it up a little.

I think that she should do a 3-3 in the SP and for the FS:
3F+2T+2Lo
3Lz
spins/steps/choreography to get into the second half
3Lo+2A
3S
3T+2A
3Lo
3F
After all, the idea of a 3T+2A+SEQ is not bad: the BV of this seq in the second half is 6.51, the BV of an UR 2A+3T in the first half is 6.20 plus the negative GOE for the two-footing, the highest she can reach with this combo is around 5.50; if she receives a positive GOE for the 3T+2A it could be more than 7 points. And we also have to remember that she often doesn't attempt the 3T if the landing of the 2A is not perfect, so a 3T+2A (I'm pretty sure that she's able to do it) could work well for her... Doing this, she would use the Murakami strategy: no 3-3 and no 2-3 in the FS, but still 7 triples using the sequences option...

FSGMT said:

I think that she should do a 3-3 in the SP and for the FS:
3F+2T+2Lo
3Lz
spins/steps/choreography to get into the second half
3Lo+2A
3S
3T+2A
3Lo
3F
After all, the idea of a 3T+2A+SEQ is not bad: the BV of this seq in the second half is 6.51, the BV of an UR 2A+3T in the first half is 6.20 plus the negative GOE for the two-footing, the highest she can reach with this combo is around 5.50; if she receives a positive GOE for the 3T+2A it could be more than 7 points. And we also have to remember that she often doesn't attempt the 3T if the landing of the 2A is not perfect, so a 3T+2A (I'm pretty sure that she's able to do it) could work well for her... Doing this, she would use the Murakami strategy: no 3-3 and no 2-3 in the FS, but still 7 triples using the sequences option...

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The only thing I would change is the place of 3Lz. It should be in the 2nd half, just like it is now, maybe change it with 3S or 3L.
She'll need the 3-3 in the SP.

I see your original point, R.D., that Ashley often skates very well when she keeps the content conservative. But, I concur with everyone else that next year is not the time to play it safe. What is it they say--go big or go home? Yes, Ashley could play it safe next year and come in 4th or 5th again. But she's already done that the last 2 years in a row. To have a chance for the podium, I think she needs the harder content. Although her PCS is steadily improving and the judges now clearly see her as one of the best, I don't think that alone will be enough to get her on the podium, because Kim, Kostner, and Asada all have great PCS as well. So I think she needs a little more on the technical side. Maybe some of the other posters are right that she should try some combinations other than 3F-3T and 2A-3T.

FlattFan said:

No. I said she shouldn't be there if the goal is to collect Ralph Lauren sweater.
This is the Olympics, have some respect. Bring ur best or stay home.

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What I find extremely disrespectful is your suggestion (even as lame sarcasm) that any skater has invested years of training and sacrifice because of a materialistic desire for an Olympic uniform.

FlattFan said:

Their parents/fed/potential reward got them to do these for years and Ralph Lauren is one of the first rewards that comes ur way.

Why go to the Olympics to do 2a-2t and have no chance at all if not for Ralph Lauren sweater? I find her extremely disrespectful to the sporting event for being so selfish.
Like the Chinese badminton players who play to not win and get thrown out, she should be thrown out for all the talk about winning and upgrading without actually making the effort.

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Where's the crystal ball of skating that's telling you she won't make the effort over this summer and start next season with an upgraded technical arsenal?

she doesn't need udgraded jumps Wagner will still be US No.2 lady behind Gracie Gold by Olympics Season.

Gracie could be the #1 US lady nationally and internationally IF she gets better choreography and learns to sell her programs the way Ashley does. Gracie has a huge technical arsenal, but she needs the logistics, too.