Tripping on the Podium
Is Abbott finished?
Is he done?
I am inclined to say he is. He's had a good run at least in the U.S., but can't seem to shed his demons and skate well in the international scene.
I'm inclined to say yes as well.
Quite apart from everything else, you have to ask the question - does he even deserve another chance? I mean, how many chances are they going to give him to blow before they realise that as good as he is, he always blows it at the big internationals?
Pains me to say it, but yes, I think so.
Abbott seems to have lost some of his amazing abilities, not just big jumps, which he owned a couple of years ago. I don't think he could go anywhere with such skating.
All Jeremy has to do is stop fooling around pretending he has a quad. If he just leaves out the obligatory opening fall and skates to his strengths, he can still win the U.S. title.
Is he done, as in being considered as a threat for a national title and world medal (or even a World/Olympic team member)? I'm inclined to say that he is in the twilight of his competitive career. Is it time to stick a fork in him? Absolutely not, unless he has lost his drive and want for competition. The worst thing, which can have far reaching damage, not only in the short term, but in the long term, is to have tons of people tell you "you're done" and have that feeling that people are against you and that you should quit. It's some negative external influences that really, is not necessary.
It's only time to put a fork in him when he wants the fork in him, and not one second before (and that goes for Chan and any other athlete. I may ask him to retire and go away, but he has every right to stay in the sport as long as he wants and is able to be in the sport.)
I think that we all agree that he doesn't have a quad, at the moment, so (if he wants to keep competing) he has two options:
1) try to skate clean without the quad, focusing on consistency and on his beautiful 3As, receiving high GOEs and PCS; the result would be being in the top3 at nationals (but probably not the champion), and not winning any medal in the GP (maybe some bronze here or there is someone bombs or WD) but surely not in the ISU Championships;
2) work a lot on his quad and hopefully go back to his 2011-2012 form, when he was landing a lot of clean quads in practice and actually landed it at GPF and Nationals: even if he does this, one inconstant quad is not enough to win, given the current layouts (2/3 quads) that all the Men are planning...
So, my answer is yes. Sadly...
How different! How biased treatment to different skaters! So when it comes to Abbott, you've suddenly become "rational", so considerable, so understanding. Do different skaters have different class?!
Originally Posted by zschultz1986
There is no need to seek justification on what you've said about Chan. All skaters deserve the same consideration from other people.
Originally Posted by zschultz1986
I got your program components right here.
100% agreed. In fact, this advice applies to the majority of senior international men. (Well, not the part about the US title.)
Originally Posted by Mathman
The nonsense about needing a quad to win has got to stop. It's become the emperor's clothes. No one who has a quad is ever otherwise clean or has good program components. If a man skated a clean short and free skate with (the maximum number of) triples only, and had very good program components, he would win often and make the podium at every ISU event. Anyone who's taken a cursory look at the protocols can see this.
Sorry, a clean performance is important but the sport has to evolve and have difficulty where skaters challenge themselves. If you want clean quadless skates, go re-watch Buttle/Lysacek/the guys from the 80's and 90's, or watch the Junior Men's Grand Prix.
Originally Posted by Pepe Nero
I wholeheartedly agree.
Originally Posted by pepe nero
I completely disagree, because anyone who has taken a cursory look at the protocols can see otherwise. This isn't 2009 anymore. After the point values were changed post-2010 Olympics, the way the current base values and GOEs are structured gives skaters who are able to fully rotate quads a BIG advantage. Patrick Chan for instance was able to score thirty points for landing two quads in his LP at 2013 Worlds, which gave him a huge cushion for the rest of the program despite the fact that almost everything else besides his quads ranged from medicore to absolutely terrible.
Originally Posted by Pepe Nero
Or just look at the numbers. In the short program, the base value of a maxed-out quadless SP (excluding the second-half bonus) is:
3Lz-3T - 10.10
3A - 8.50
3F - 5.30
TOTAL = 23.90
A typical SP with a quad is:
4T-3T - 14.40
3A - 8.50
3Lz - 5.30
TOTAL - 28.20
So a quadless man starts out with a 4.30-point disadvantage in base value even before he starts skating. The gap even widens further with the way GOEs are structured (ceiling for GOE for 4T-3T higher than GOE for 3Lz-3T, etc), plus unspoken factors like the fact that programs with successfully-landed quads are often given a little boost in PCS.*
From general observation, a clean quadless SP by a very good PCS skater scores around mid-80s or lower outside of inflated Olympics scoring:
-Jeremy Abbott, 2012 WTT: 86.98 points (last season; w/ current scoring, he'll get about a point more due to second-half bonus)
-Jeremy Abbott, 2012 TEB: 81.18 points (this season; his highest int'l score w/ clean SP at 2012 Trophee Eric Bompard)
But a clean SP with a quad by a very good PCS skater can score around 10 points higher:
Patrick Chan, 2013 Worlds: 98.37
Yuzuru Hanyu, 2012 NHK: 95.32
Daisuke Takahashi, 2012 GPF: 92.29
Even if the skater with a quad in the SP makes a mistake, he can easily score the same or higher than the skater without a quad due to the points cushion the quad gives:
Javier Fernandez, 2013 Euros: 88.80 (doubled a jump)
Patrick Chan, 2012 GPF: 89.27 (doubled a jump)
Yuzuru Hanyu, 2012 GPF: 87.17 (fell and under-rotated his 3Lz-3T)
Daisuke Takahashi, 2012 NHK: 87.47 (big stumble/stepout out of quad)
Plus, if you look at the SB list for international competitions this season, the highest quadless SB this season was a whopping 83.48 points by Tatsuki Machida, ranked 11th overall (http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtsmsp.htm).
The points gap between a quadless and a quadded skater further widens in the LP, with more jumping passes for the man with a quad to take advantage of.
So yes, I'd say a quad is essential to win, especially since so many of the men are attempting it. Note that every single man who won or medalled at an ISU competition this season was attempting at least one quad. Maybe the quadless man can win or make the podium if the men collectively skate as disastrously as they did at 2013 Worlds, but he won't be able to control his own destiny. And he sure won't win often at all, since the men (as inconsistent as they are) don't always skate that disastrously.
Perhaps the men who have quads right now consistently make mistakes, but they don't need to be clean to win or medal. All they need is to rotate their jumps. Mistakes like falls aren't penalized sufficiently under the current scoring structure, because the increase in base value thanks to the quads and the extra jumps slots the men are able to gain with quads can easily make up for errors. Plus for some skaters, skating like crap doesn't seem to affect their PCS at all....
*does anyone, for instance, think that skaters like Aaron and Reynolds would be receiving the same PCS as they do if they weren't landing multiple quads?
A million is not so small.
No, a million is not so small. It will buy him a lot of fake and bake time and discount vera wang outfits