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Thread: Is Abbott finished?

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by pepe nero View Post
    100% agreed. In fact, this advice applies to the majority of senior international men. (well, not the part about the us title.)

    the nonsense about needing a quad to win has got to stop. It's become the emperor's clothes. No one who has a quad is ever otherwise clean or has good program components. If a man skated a clean short and free skate with (the maximum number of) triples only, and had very good program components, he would win often and make the podium at every isu event. Anyone who's taken a cursory look at the protocols can see this.
    I wholeheartedly agree.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe Nero View Post
    100% agreed. In fact, this advice applies to the majority of senior international men. (Well, not the part about the US title.)

    The nonsense about needing a quad to win has got to stop. It's become the emperor's clothes. No one who has a quad is ever otherwise clean or has good program components. If a man skated a clean short and free skate with (the maximum number of) triples only, and had very good program components, he would win often and make the podium at every ISU event. Anyone who's taken a cursory look at the protocols can see this.
    I completely disagree, because anyone who has taken a cursory look at the protocols can see otherwise. This isn't 2009 anymore. After the point values were changed post-2010 Olympics, the way the current base values and GOEs are structured gives skaters who are able to fully rotate quads a BIG advantage. Patrick Chan for instance was able to score thirty points for landing two quads in his LP at 2013 Worlds, which gave him a huge cushion for the rest of the program despite the fact that almost everything else besides his quads ranged from medicore to absolutely terrible.

    Or just look at the numbers. In the short program, the base value of a maxed-out quadless SP (excluding the second-half bonus) is:

    3Lz-3T - 10.10
    3A - 8.50
    3F - 5.30
    TOTAL = 23.90

    A typical SP with a quad is:
    4T-3T - 14.40
    3A - 8.50
    3Lz - 5.30
    TOTAL - 28.20

    So a quadless man starts out with a 4.30-point disadvantage in base value even before he starts skating. The gap even widens further with the way GOEs are structured (ceiling for GOE for 4T-3T higher than GOE for 3Lz-3T, etc), plus unspoken factors like the fact that programs with successfully-landed quads are often given a little boost in PCS.*

    From general observation, a clean quadless SP by a very good PCS skater scores around mid-80s or lower outside of inflated Olympics scoring:
    -Jeremy Abbott, 2012 WTT: 86.98 points (last season; w/ current scoring, he'll get about a point more due to second-half bonus)
    -Jeremy Abbott, 2012 TEB: 81.18 points (this season; his highest int'l score w/ clean SP at 2012 Trophee Eric Bompard)

    But a clean SP with a quad by a very good PCS skater can score around 10 points higher:
    Patrick Chan, 2013 Worlds: 98.37
    Yuzuru Hanyu, 2012 NHK: 95.32
    Daisuke Takahashi, 2012 GPF: 92.29

    Even if the skater with a quad in the SP makes a mistake, he can easily score the same or higher than the skater without a quad due to the points cushion the quad gives:
    Javier Fernandez, 2013 Euros: 88.80 (doubled a jump)
    Patrick Chan, 2012 GPF: 89.27 (doubled a jump)
    Yuzuru Hanyu, 2012 GPF: 87.17 (fell and under-rotated his 3Lz-3T)
    Daisuke Takahashi, 2012 NHK: 87.47 (big stumble/stepout out of quad)

    Plus, if you look at the SB list for international competitions this season, the highest quadless SB this season was a whopping 83.48 points by Tatsuki Machida, ranked 11th overall (http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtsmsp.htm).

    The points gap between a quadless and a quadded skater further widens in the LP, with more jumping passes for the man with a quad to take advantage of.

    So yes, I'd say a quad is essential to win, especially since so many of the men are attempting it. Note that every single man who won or medalled at an ISU competition this season was attempting at least one quad. Maybe the quadless man can win or make the podium if the men collectively skate as disastrously as they did at 2013 Worlds, but he won't be able to control his own destiny. And he sure won't win often at all, since the men (as inconsistent as they are) don't always skate that disastrously.

    Perhaps the men who have quads right now consistently make mistakes, but they don't need to be clean to win or medal. All they need is to rotate their jumps. Mistakes like falls aren't penalized sufficiently under the current scoring structure, because the increase in base value thanks to the quads and the extra jumps slots the men are able to gain with quads can easily make up for errors. Plus for some skaters, skating like crap doesn't seem to affect their PCS at all....



    *does anyone, for instance, think that skaters like Aaron and Reynolds would be receiving the same PCS as they do if they weren't landing multiple quads?

  3. #63
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    American fans are the worst supporters!!
    Jeremy is one of the most beautiful skaters at the moment and just going through a tough time. He is one of few skaters out there that can tell a story on the ice. I wish him well next season and hope to see him at the Olympics.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by hellsbells21 View Post
    American fans are the worst supporters!!
    Jeremy is one of the most beautiful skaters at the moment and just going through a tough time. He is one of few skaters out there that can tell a story on the ice. I wish him well next season and hope to see him at the Olympics.
    First, I'm not an American.

    Second, I agree that Jeremy is beautiful. But this "tough time" has been going on for YEARS at the big internationals. IMO he's blown too many chances on the international circuit to warrant another.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    I don't agree. When Jeremy falls on his opening quad, rotated or not, the whole rest of the program goes to pot. it doesn't matter how many CoP points he gets for the rotations of his quad if he falls and pops a bunch of jumps later on.

    On the other hand, under-rotation is the main cause of falling on any jump, so if he could fully rotate a quad he would have a good chance of landing it.
    I think this is what USUALLY happens for Jeremy, but it doesn't have to necessarily to work that way, but again that may be a mental issue that's between his ears. What about this skate? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmL61d7VNeg 2009 Grand Prix Final, and granted he finished 5th, but it was the final and he was 2nd in the FS. He falls on a (rotated) quad at the beginning, then hits pretty much everything else and keeps the energy up and the result is a well-scoring program. So I know, just because he's managed to do this in the past, doesn't mean he can be reliable to do something similar every time out, but idk, I think the quad is not the biggest issue with Jeremy, it's his mental/competitive state. Usually it's the silly mistakes like pops and doubles at the end of the program that cost him more than the money elements. Missing one money element wouldn't do him in, at least on paper. The issue is more if he stopped attempting the quad altogether, would he still be scored the same way in PCS? Part of me thinks maybe not because to be a contender on the World level you need to be trying at least one quad, and most are trying 2 or 3 (or 4 or 5... ). It doesn't mean that sometimes we see skaters wind up on the podium without successfully landing a quad or multiple quads, but they are at least always going for it. Idk. With next season being an Olympic season, he may not want to try taking the quad out and seeing what happens, especially because that could really give the other guys in the US a confidence boost in how they see their chances and obviously so much of this sport is mental that something like that could make a difference, or change other's strategies, etc. Jeremy is a beautiful skater but he's never really had the mental aspect down and now that his body is starting to give out (it would appear), I'd be really, really surprised if he managed to medal at Worlds or the Olympics before retiring, and like others have said, anything less than that would be considered an underachievement of his potential (people are saying top 10, but, he was 9th in Vancouver after bombing the SP and following it up with a lukewarm at best FS so that to me, at least, was not a good result for him but a rather disappointing one) so unless he skates really well at Nats and earns an Olympic spot fair and square, I'd say his being left off the team is maybe a blessing in disguise so that he can avoid another likely disappointment before he retires.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by hellsbells21 View Post
    American fans are the worst supporters!!
    Jeremy is one of the most beautiful skaters at the moment and just going through a tough time. He is one of few skaters out there that can tell a story on the ice. I wish him well next season and hope to see him at the Olympics.
    I don't believe anyone is wishing him ill. I'd love for him to make a return to top form, and skate in a manner worthy of a major championship medal. However, based on performance history, I have doubts that this will happen.

    I'm pretty sure there must be a Jeremy Abbott thread in the Fan Fest forum. It's where people go to rave about their favorite skaters with little fear that a critical voice will interrupt.

  7. #67
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    No one has yet started a Jeremy Abbott Fan Fest thread, but any user can start one!

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by evangeline View Post
    I completely disagree, because anyone who has taken a cursory look at the protocols can see otherwise. This isn't 2009 anymore. After the point values were changed post-2010 Olympics, the way the current base values and GOEs are structured gives skaters who are able to fully rotate quads a BIG advantage. Patrick Chan for instance was able to score thirty points for landing two quads in his LP at 2013 Worlds, which gave him a huge cushion for the rest of the program despite the fact that almost everything else besides his quads ranged from medicore to absolutely terrible.

    Or just look at the numbers. In the short program, the base value of a maxed-out quadless SP (excluding the second-half bonus) is:

    3Lz-3T - 10.10
    3A - 8.50
    3F - 5.30
    TOTAL = 23.90

    A typical SP with a quad is:
    4T-3T - 14.40
    3A - 8.50
    3Lz - 5.30
    TOTAL - 28.20

    So a quadless man starts out with a 4.30-point disadvantage in base value even before he starts skating. The gap even widens further with the way GOEs are structured (ceiling for GOE for 4T-3T higher than GOE for 3Lz-3T, etc), plus unspoken factors like the fact that programs with successfully-landed quads are often given a little boost in PCS.*

    From general observation, a clean quadless SP by a very good PCS skater scores around mid-80s or lower outside of inflated Olympics scoring:
    -Jeremy Abbott, 2012 WTT: 86.98 points (last season; w/ current scoring, he'll get about a point more due to second-half bonus)
    -Jeremy Abbott, 2012 TEB: 81.18 points (this season; his highest int'l score w/ clean SP at 2012 Trophee Eric Bompard)

    But a clean SP with a quad by a very good PCS skater can score around 10 points higher:
    Patrick Chan, 2013 Worlds: 98.37
    Yuzuru Hanyu, 2012 NHK: 95.32
    Daisuke Takahashi, 2012 GPF: 92.29

    Even if the skater with a quad in the SP makes a mistake, he can easily score the same or higher than the skater without a quad due to the points cushion the quad gives:
    Javier Fernandez, 2013 Euros: 88.80 (doubled a jump)
    Patrick Chan, 2012 GPF: 89.27 (doubled a jump)
    Yuzuru Hanyu, 2012 GPF: 87.17 (fell and under-rotated his 3Lz-3T)
    Daisuke Takahashi, 2012 NHK: 87.47 (big stumble/stepout out of quad)

    Plus, if you look at the SB list for international competitions this season, the highest quadless SB this season was a whopping 83.48 points by Tatsuki Machida, ranked 11th overall (http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/...13/sbtsmsp.htm).

    The points gap between a quadless and a quadded skater further widens in the LP, with more jumping passes for the man with a quad to take advantage of.

    So yes, I'd say a quad is essential to win, especially since so many of the men are attempting it. Note that every single man who won or medalled at an ISU competition this season was attempting at least one quad. Maybe the quadless man can win or make the podium if the men collectively skate as disastrously as they did at 2013 Worlds, but he won't be able to control his own destiny. And he sure won't win often at all, since the men (as inconsistent as they are) don't always skate that disastrously.

    Perhaps the men who have quads right now consistently make mistakes, but they don't need to be clean to win or medal. All they need is to rotate their jumps. Mistakes like falls aren't penalized sufficiently under the current scoring structure, because the increase in base value thanks to the quads and the extra jumps slots the men are able to gain with quads can easily make up for errors. Plus for some skaters, skating like crap doesn't seem to affect their PCS at all....

    *does anyone, for instance, think that skaters like Aaron and Reynolds would be receiving the same PCS as they do if they weren't landing multiple quads?
    I agree with most of what you've said. I think Reynolds would since he's been on the senior circuit much longer than Aaron, so the judges see a legitimate improvement in his abilities (plus he's a better all-around skater than Aaron, though neither are close to the top guys).

    Like you said, a man who doesn't do a quad relies on the other guys to fail, and there are just far too many guys landing quads these days. 2013 Worlds was an anomaly for all the top skaters (Hanyu/Chan/Fernandez/Takahashi all bombed in various ways at Worlds). I don't think they'll do the same in Sochi. Abbott needs a quad to compete. He should not shy away from that if he has any hopes of medalling.

    Lysacek's win was it's own ridiculousness (though under the system's points, it made sense). It would be pretty horrible if a medalist in Sochi didn't even attempt a quad (heck, most Junior men could do the difficulty of that type of program). Just like it would be horrible if a medalist on the women's side didn't attempt a 3-3, or at least 3Z+2T, 3F.

    And regarding Machida being the highest quadless score, to be fair, Abbott would have easily cleared 83 points had he not fallen on his 3F (which is normally a jump he can do in his sleep) at the WTT. I know, it shouldn't matter because that's not what happened but theoretically (and looking at the scores, as Abbott scored 80 points), you would think he would have managed close to mid-80s. Still not nearly as high as what he would needed to be ahead of quad guys in the SP who even made mistakes.

  9. #69
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    I wonder if a summer competition or two might help Jeremy get into competition mode. Going straight to the GP hasn't seemed to work lately

  10. #70
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    ^ So he never competes in summer competitions? I always thougt these North American comps were a good way to test one or both of your programs.

    Jeremy's goal is Sochi and I guess he will compete in GP, B comps, nationals etc this season. If he's "finished" because of injury problems, well, then health of course comes first.

    Yohoo for Jeremy doing Exogenesis as his FS next season. I wasn't that found of his programs this season.The new SP, I hope, will be a fun, humorous light program with lots of refinements, without a quad. For the FS though, sadly, I think he needs a quad, and I think he will go for it. Maybe…??... if his main goal is to be an olympian he could get away with non-quad programs at nationals(though I doubt it). Overall I think men need one or two quads to be competitive next season. Worth trying as they get lots of points for a rotated quad even with a fall or two footed. So… with many guys trying it, some of the best will succeed and have superb or descent skates to follow. Haha, at least I hope so. Last Olys men's SP was sooo disappointing and hard to watch: Jeremy, Joubert, Verner, Lambiel, Kozuka etc bombing.

    I saw Buttle live winning at 2008 world's, without a quad and was happy with that.
    I wouldn't mind Jeremy leaving out the quad and win olympic gold

    Super exciting to see what he will do… anyways… GO Jeremy!

    My hopes for the US olympic men team: the two contrasts: Jeremy and Max

  11. #71
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    Just saw this tweet from Robin Cousins, I'm guessing he has got a programme with him:
    https://twitter.com/TheRobinCousins/...54777021534209

    How exciting! I love Jeremy and Robin so this should be good.

  12. #72
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    If our loving a skater did make things good, what marvelous skating we would see.

  13. #73
    Go Team Abbott snowflake's Avatar
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    Jeremy himself doesn't think so

    Says his goal is to medal at Sochi and yes, he thinks he has to do at least one quad for that. He couldn't do them well last season because he was too fat

    The short will be something upbeat and fun. An homage to Gene Kelly with a lot of footwork. Didn't tell what the music is.

    Great interview... answers many questions

  14. #74
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    Also that he's been skating with back pain for years. (Isn't a compressed disc like a herniated disc?) Sure does not sound good.

    I hope he has a great season, stays as healthy and pain free as possible, and is happy with his training and results.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by snowflake View Post
    I saw Buttle live winning at 2008 world's, without a quad and was happy with that.
    I wouldn't mind Jeremy leaving out the quad and win olympic gold

    Super exciting to see what he will do… anyways… GO Jeremy!

    My hopes for the US olympic men team: the two contrasts: Jeremy and Max
    In Jeremy's interview with Jenny and Dave, he agreed that he needs a quad. I agree re Jeremy and Max! I hope the USFSA gets smart for a change and sends Jeremy even if he is in third at Nationals. And I hope Evan's purported return doesn't keep Jeremy (or Max) off the team.

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