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Thread: Speculation: who will get the remaining Olympic spots?

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  1. #1
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    Speculation: who will get the remaining Olympic spots?

    As you all know the first of two roads for skaters to qualify for the 2014 Olympics is closed. Come this September, the humble Nebelhorn Trophy in Oberstorf, Germany will be swarmed by skaters desperately fighting for those precious remaining spots to Sochi 2014. A total of 6 spots in the men, 6 spots in the ladies, 4 spots in pairs and 5 spots in Ice Dance will be awarded.

    Though the event is months away, it will be fun to speculate based on performances from the 2012-2013 season who will get those spots.

    A couple of things to keep in mind.
    1. Nations who already received spots at 2013 worlds in a discipline can not receive an additional spot for that discipline through Nebelhorn. These spots are only for skaters who's national federation has not being given a spot already. If you want to see who has qualified already, see link below.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_..._Qualification
    2. If a team/skater qualifies a spot and has not achieved the required technical minimums, they have until sometime in January 2014 to achieve it.

    Let the speculation begin.

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    To get this post going let me say who I think has a chance.
    In the men's, based on performances at 4CC and Europeans, I expect The Philippines (Christian Martinez/chris Caliza), South Korea to get spots. The competition is quite tight. Other nations I can see squeeze through include Ukarine, Denmark, Poland, Monaco, Belarus, Italy, Romania, Hong Kong China, Israel and Switzerland.

    In the ladies, I'm looking forward to seeing Kiira Korpi getting a spot for Finland. I also am expecting Australia (Brooklee Han finished 21st at Worlds) and Georgia (I really hope Elena Gedeshvanishvili can get over her issues with nerves) to get spots. A birth for Belgium, Brazil, Slovakia, Denmark, Belgium, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Luxembourg or even Mexico (Reyna Hamui is now training in Detroit) is possible as well as others.

    For Pairs, I can only see European teams qualifying. I see spots for four of these nations: United Kingdom, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Poland, Belerus or Austria.

    Out of all the disciplines, ice dance is probably the most open. Though there are only five spots on paper, due to the Lithuanian Government refusing Isabella Tobias to give her citizenship, there is essentially six spots available if Tobias and Stagninunas can't go. There are so many teams who I can see contending its not funny. Nations who can get a place include Spain, Japan, Uzbekistan, Australia, Czech Republic, Finland, Israel, Hungary, Turkey, China, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, Georgia, Belerus, Switzerland and Austria.

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    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    The most interesting group in the Wikipedia article is the list of the countries in the running for the 10 Team Trophy spots. Total placings will only be known after the GPF & JGPF this fall. Top 10 countries then will qualify

    rank Team 2012–2013 2013–14 Total
    1 Canada 3826 3826
    2 Russia 3479 3479
    3 United States 3305 3305
    4 Italy 2709 2709
    5 France 2495 2495
    6 China 2467 2467
    7 Germany 2356 2356
    8 Japan 2293 2293
    9 Spain 1610 1610
    10 South Korea 1424 1424
    11 Kazakhstan 1080 1080
    12 Ukraine 1065 1065
    13 Sweden 1047 1047
    14 Great Britain 1038 1038
    15 Austria 986 986
    16 Czech Republic 894 894

    In dance, I have heard that Tobias & Stagniunas still have a chance of getting her citizenship straightened out.

    Other than T&S, I expect Japan (the Reeds looked really good at WTT and just missed the cut at Worlds) & Australia's O'Brien & Merriman (missed qualifying for worlds by 0.5 points, and were just behind the Reeds at 4CCs) may qualify at Nebelhorn, and perhaps Turkey (given that the Turks, Agafanova & Ucar, were totally slammed at World Championships by a music penalty in the SD for music they had been using all season without penalty, Rybak's Fairy Tale, as not being a polka. It caused both their Yankee Polka sequences to be level 1, plus the extra deduction, and so they did not qualify for the LP.) My guesses for the other 2 spots are more speculative: perhaps China (if Huang & Zheng are healthy in the fall) & Czech Republic (Mysliveckova & Brown, provided Brown gets Czech citizenship and they skate well at Nebelhorn).
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 04-20-2013 at 04:34 AM.

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    Fun observation comparing the Australian team to other European teams.

    Lets take a look at the Senior B's results for the 2012-13 season
    the Australians competed at 5 Senior international B's that season. Let us compare their results with teams of the 'same ability' (I am not talking about teams who are obviously better but teams which had similar results to the Australian team) that did qualify for the 2013 worlds.

    1. At the US Classic, they defeated the Polish team (Plutowska/Gerber) who qualified for the Worlds.
    2. At the Ondrej Nepala, the Australians were not defeated by teams of 'same ability' who later qualified for worlds. Instead they beat them all- the Czech (Mysliveckova/Brown), Slovakian (Testa Csolley) and Hungarian (Nagy/Fejes) teams
    3. Later that week at the Ice Challenge, The Czech team marginally defeated the Australians by 1.86pts but the Australian managed to defeat the for a second time the Hungarians (Nagy/Fejes), The Polish team (Plutowska/Gerber), Slovakian teams (Testa/Csolley). Also they defeated the Estonians (Shtork/Rand) and the Turkish team (Agafonova/Ucar).
    4. Later at the NRW trophy, the Australians placed 8th but none of these 'same ability' teams who I talked about beat them. Instead for a second time the Australians defeated the Turkish team.
    5. Finally, at the Mentor Nestle Cup in Poland, the Australians placed third behind the stronger and better established Ukranian and Japanese teams and yet again they beat the Turkish team (for a third time) and the Polish team (for third time).

  5. #5
    Outdated Old Dinosaur
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    I'm still fascinated by the team event. It raises so many questions and possibilities.

    If I've been following correctly, the top 10 make the Team Event competition, correct?

    Let's say South Korea maintains it's Top 10 spot. So, does that mean that an ice dance team from South Korea would be permitted to skate in the team event, even if they don't make the cut for the dance event competition?

    Edit: Go Turkey!

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    *waving Australian flag*

    Oooh, I hope Brendan Kerry qualifies. He's landing a 4T, maybe he can rock Nebelhorn!

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    i've had a read at the rules. The answer is yes BUT a nation needs to have a competitor in at least THREE of the disciplines in the team event to qualify. From my understanding, Korea has Male and female skaters and 1 Ice dance team (Finished 20th at Junior worlds-not sure if they meet the age restrictions though), so yes they can compete.

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    [QUOTE=wordsworthgirl;765228]
    Quote Originally Posted by GF2445 View Post
    Men's Event

    Countries that are competing but have already qualified spots.
    Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Japan, Russia Federation, United States

    Podium Predictions

    1. Nobunari Oda JPN
    2. Jason Brown USA
    3. Artur Dmitirev RUS

    Is this Artur Dmitriev the son of THE Artur Dimitriev, pairs skater extraordinaire?!
    Yes, he is. Unfortunately Jr is reaching the end of his career which never really got to any great heights.

    I may be biased but I think it may actually be a lot closer between Jason and Nobu than anyone is expecting.

  9. #9
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    Nebelhorn Fever is setting on us. Who are your predictions for
    1. podium
    2. wilcard spots

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    [QUOTE=karne;765231]
    Quote Originally Posted by wordsworthgirl View Post

    Yes, he is. Unfortunately Jr is reaching the end of his career which never really got to any great heights.

    I may be biased but I think it may actually be a lot closer between Jason and Nobu than anyone is expecting.
    I actually predict Oda to blow Brown out of the water. Brown barely has consistent axels and Oda attempts quads and axels. Of course Brown is great to watch but the jumping ability discrepancy makes me think Oda will win easily.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post

    I actually predict Oda to blow Brown out of the water. Brown barely has consistent axels and Oda attempts quads and axels. Of course Brown is great to watch but the jumping ability discrepancy makes me think Oda will win easily.
    In writing what we do we both assume that both skaters will go 100%. But that almost never happens. Jason may miss the 3A, or go down on the quad (if attempted). He may not even attempt the quad. Nobu may miss some of his jumps, or he may mis-count again and Zayak. This is ice. It is slippery.

    I did not say that I expected Jason to beat Nobu; short of Nobu splatting on every jump (heaven forbid) that would be a miracle. Jason is very talented but very young; Nobu is very talented and much more experienced. I merely think that it won't be as huge as some people think. Perhaps with the rider that, the margin could be closed up IF Jason goes clean.

    Either way, I think this is very likely to be a nice cushy maiden Senior medal for Jason, which is a nice booster for him. What colour the medal is, is another matter. I haven't seen any results of Dmitriev's in a long time, but the last time I recall seeing him he wasn't skating well - I think he's been injured? Jason beat MCM quite comprehensively in their last match-up and I can't picture too many others in that field with the quality to match him, even as a first-year Senior.

    But this is figure skating. Anything can happen and it usually does.

    Anyhow, much as I love Jason, he is not my main focus at this event. All I want is to see Brooklee, Brendan, and Danielle and Greg qualify for the Olympics. I have confidence they can do it!

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    The situation in ice dance is interesting, with the possibility that a team that has qualified may not be able to compete at the Olympics if a long-running citizenship issue is not resolved favorably for the skater in a timely manner. This certainly creates a dual uncertainty for the "possible" 6th spot qualifier coming out of this weekend's Nebelhorn competition

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    Quote Originally Posted by karne View Post
    In writing what we do we both assume that both skaters will go 100%. But that almost never happens. Jason may miss the 3A, or go down on the quad (if attempted). He may not even attempt the quad. Nobu may miss some of his jumps, or he may mis-count again and Zayak. This is ice. It is slippery.

    I did not say that I expected Jason to beat Nobu; short of Nobu splatting on every jump (heaven forbid) that would be a miracle. Jason is very talented but very young; Nobu is very talented and much more experienced. I merely think that it won't be as huge as some people think. Perhaps with the rider that, the margin could be closed up IF Jason goes clean.
    It seems when both went clean in the SP Oda was well ahead. That being said, Brown was slower than usual which was probably detrimental to his PCS, which Oda easily beat him on. I'm glad both guys are in such great shape early on the season, although there's still the FS. Sometimes it's not really about who beats or whether it's close, but getting satisfaction in seeing clean skates all around... of which there were quite a few! Happy for Brendan too! Maybe a tad underscored, but certainly in position for the Olympic spot.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    It seems when both went clean in the SP Oda was well ahead. That being said, Brown was slower than usual which was probably detrimental to his PCS, which Oda easily beat him on. I'm glad both guys are in such great shape early on the season, although there's still the FS. Sometimes it's not really about who beats or whether it's close, but getting satisfaction in seeing clean skates all around... of which there were quite a few! Happy for Brendan too! Maybe a tad underscored, but certainly in position for the Olympic spot.
    FWIW, Jason's 36+ PCS is actually a little over two points higher than his PB in the short program (33.86): http://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs_pb_00012123.htm

    I did feel he was a bit cautious; he looked relieved that he managed to do a mostly clean program. I think this will bode well for him as he gets into the GP and the rest of the season.

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    [QUOTE=karne;765231]
    Quote Originally Posted by wordsworthgirl View Post

    Yes, he is. Unfortunately Jr is reaching the end of his career which never really got to any great heights.

    I may be biased but I think it may actually be a lot closer between Jason and Nobu than anyone is expecting.
    I believe a little more than 34 points separated the two :P

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