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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

  1. #601
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    I appreciate Gracie for her strengths and am rooting for her, but I too think the projections that she will overtake Ashley is premature. The fact is that Gracie has yet to beat Ashley in a competition and out of all their face-to-face meet ups, both short programs and free programs, they are in a dead heat:

    World Team Trophy 2012 - 1-1 (Gracie, SP; Ashley, FS)
    Nationals 2012 - 1-1 (Ashley SP; Gracie FS)
    Worlds 2012 - 1-1 (Ashley SP; Gracie FS)
    Worlds Team Trophy 1-1 (Gracie SP; Ashley FS)

    Also in personal bests
    SP: Ashley (66.44 [GPF 2012]vs. 62.16 [COR 2012]
    SP TES: Ashley (35.60 at NHK Trophy 2008 vs 35.32 at JGP Tallinn Cup 2011)
    SP PCS: Ashley (31.49 at GPF 2012/13 vs 28.62 at 2013 Worlds)
    FS: Ashley (128.83 vs 127.05 [Both 2013 WTT)
    FS TES: Ashley (66.61 4CC 2012 vs 65.28 at WTT 2013)
    FS PCS: Ashley (65.09 WTT 2013 vs 61.77 at WTT 2013)
    Overall: Ashley 192.41 (2012 4CC) vs 188.03 (2013 WTT)

    Ashley's biggest buffer right now in PCS. But Ashley for sure will need to upgrade her content given that she barely beats error-prone Gracie programs.

  2. #602
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    Gracie came closest to beating Ashley at 2013 WTT. She only lost by half a point, and that was with a fall in the short program and the edge calls on her flip. Gracie's PCS is likely to increase this season, so Ashley is looking to circumvent that by increasing her technical content. At this point, I would still say that Ashley is the stronger contender for a surprise Olympic medal. That view may change after both girls debut their new programs on the GP.

    Ashley is physically able to land a 3-3; she did so several times during Worlds practices. After so many seasons of not including it in her programs, though, one has to wonder if she''ll be in the correct mental state -- that is, if she'll be confident enough -- to land it when she knows that her international reputation, projected Olympic spot, and national title are all on the line. If her consistency ends up suffering throughout the GP because she's putting all of her focus into that combination, she might do better to "play it safe" but clean.

  3. #603
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Gracie came closest to beating Ashley at 2013 WTT. She only lost by half a point, and that was with a fall in the short program and the edge calls on her flip. Gracie's PCS is likely to increase this season, so Ashley is looking to circumvent that by increasing her technical content. At this point, I would still say that Ashley is the stronger contender for a surprise Olympic medal. That view may change after both girls debut their new programs on the GP.

    Ashley is physically able to land a 3-3; she did so several times during Worlds practices. After so many seasons of not including it in her programs, though, one has to wonder if she''ll be in the correct mental state -- that is, if she'll be confident enough -- to land it when she knows that her international reputation, projected Olympic spot, and national title are all on the line. If her consistency ends up suffering throughout the GP because she's putting all of her focus into that combination, she might do better to "play it safe" but clean.
    Wouldn't those same points apply to Gracie as well? How many times this season had we heard of Gracie killing on the practices to only, at best, make silly errors or worse, meltdown, when it came to competition time? Gracie, of course has shown improvement in managing the pressure/nerves but we'll have to wait and see if that continues.

    Again just playing devil's advocate for those (not you, FF) that are absolutely positive that Gracie is in a lock to beat Ashley this year.

  4. #604
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    Wagner is still technically the US #1, yes (at least on paper,)- but the point is this: she won't stay there for long under the status quo.

  5. #605
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Wagner is still technically the US #1, yes (at least on paper,)- but the point is this: she won't stay there for long under the status quo.
    I guess what I don't get is why people think that Ashley's going to just sit around and let Gracie overtake her. Or rather, that Gracie will just prance over to the No. 1 spot. Perhaps the status quo may prevail, but it won't be because of a lack of effort on Ashley's part.

  6. #606
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    I guess what I don't get is why people think that Ashley's going to just sit around and let Gracie overtake her. Or rather, that Gracie will just prance over to the No. 1 spot. Perhaps the status quo may prevail, but it won't be because of a lack of effort on Ashley's part.
    I don't know how many people think that about Ashley but of course, she won't. She knows what she has to do and she knows it's hard but she will try. I wouldn't put my eggs in the Gracie basket either. She still has to show consistency and definitely does not match Ashley when it comes to maturity and ice presence - or experience. Both have them have to watch out for others too, especially Agnes, in my opinion, if Agnes can finally skate cleanly. Anyway, it will be a good fight.

  7. #607
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    There's a huge competition gap between Wagner and Gold. Wagner has been skating on the GP every year since 2007; she didn't win her first GP medal until 2009, her third GP year. Wagner skated in her first Worlds in 2008 and finished 16th. Gold was in her first senior season this past year, and she medaled (silver) in the GP and finished 6th at Worlds. I'd say Gold is doing pretty darned well, to be even considered as challenging Wagner. Remember, it's always easier being the chaser than the chased. Gracie has to keep doing what she's been doing, only better, while Wagner has to do a lot MORE technically than she's been doing, and still maintain her consistency. I'd say Wagner has the tougher task.

  8. #608
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    There's a huge competition gap between Wagner and Gold. Wagner has been skating on the GP every year since 2007; she didn't win her first GP medal until 2009, her third GP year. Wagner skated in her first Worlds in 2008 and finished 16th. Gold was in her first senior season this past year, and she medaled (silver) in the GP and finished 6th at Worlds. I'd say Gold is doing pretty darned well, to be even considered as challenging Wagner. Remember, it's always easier being the chaser than the chased. Gracie has to keep doing what she's been doing, only better, while Wagner has to do a lot MORE technically than she's been doing, and still maintain her consistency. I'd say Wagner has the tougher task.
    Wagner got her first GP medal (bronze) on her second try as well, at Trophee Eric Bompard in 2007 (and she finished second in the FS, standing only behind Mao Asada). And at her first GP (Skate Canada), she finished 5th out of a more extended field of 12 contestants, while Gracie finished 7th out of 10 contestants at the same competition last year.

    Wagner's been written off before. I think everyone thought she was done after her worst national showing in 2011 when she finished in 6th place. We all know what happened after that.

    I'm rooting for both of these ladies to give us fans a great rivalry.

  9. #609
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    Wagner's been written off before. I think everyone thought she was done after her worst national showing in 2011 when she finished in 6th place. We all know what happened after that.
    I didn't. I knew she wasn't out of it yet at that point but she was running out of time. Of course, I didn't expect she would come a hair shy of medaling at worlds the very next year, but sort of like Nagasu right now, she was still very much in the mix even if she was no longer "on the radar".

    I don't think people are writing Wagner off - not even close. Most (if not all) posters see her as one of the top contenders for the three Sochi spots next year.

    I guess what I don't get is why people think that Ashley's going to just sit around and let Gracie overtake her. Or rather, that Gracie will just prance over to the No. 1 spot. Perhaps the status quo may prevail, but it won't be because of a lack of effort on Ashley's part.
    I'm not saying she isn't trying - I'm just flat out stating that the status quo isn't going to cut it if she wants to meet her goals this Olympic season. MAYBE she might get away with it at Nationals...but definitely no international competition that features all medal contenders.

    But of course, nothing is clear-cut and we have to see if Gold can maintain her upward trend. Her ability to handle pressure will certainly be put to the test...it is a test she has failed before, more than once...However, as long as she stays healthy, she has things working in her favor...(younger) age, (jumping) ability, among others...

    Wagner will have to get the thoughts of 2010 out of her head...she just needs to settle down and do what she has been trained to do, like she did at 2012 Nationals. Yes, I know, easier said than done...but if she lets doubt creep back in, she's going to have a tough time especially in the Olympic season.

  10. #610
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Wouldn't those same points apply to Gracie as well? How many times this season had we heard of Gracie killing on the practices to only, at best, make silly errors or worse, meltdown, when it came to competition time? Gracie, of course has shown improvement in managing the pressure/nerves but we'll have to wait and see if that continues.

    Again just playing devil's advocate for those (not you, FF) that are absolutely positive that Gracie is in a lock to beat Ashley this year.
    Yes, Gracie's definitely faced a lot of consistency problems this season. So she and Ashley are, in that respect, almost in the same boat. Ashley is a far more consistent competitor, but she didn't become so until she went to Nicks.

    I'm one of Gracie's biggest supporters on this forum, but I agree that she isn't a lock to beat Ashley. I think that the odds are good, especially since her star is rising and her technical content is just that difficult, but she still has to prove that she can handle the Olympic-season pressure on the GP and at Nationals. Going to Sochi as the reigning national champion is no small mental feat. Even Ashley would, I think, have a difficult time staying calm and composed in that situation.

  11. #611
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    I didn't. I knew she wasn't out of it yet at that point but she was running out of time. Of course, I didn't expect she would come a hair shy of medaling at worlds the very next year, but sort of like Nagasu right now, she was still very much in the mix even if she was no longer "on the radar".

    I don't think people are writing Wagner off - not even close. Most (if not all) posters see her as one of the top contenders for the three Sochi spots next year.
    I mean write-off in a different situation, i.e. write-off her ability to retain her No. 1 status in the U.S.

  12. #612
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Wagner got her first GP medal (bronze) on her second try as well, at Trophee Eric Bompard in 2007 (and she finished second in the FS, standing only behind Mao Asada). And at her first GP (Skate Canada), she finished 5th out of a more extended field of 12 contestants, while Gracie finished 7th out of 10 contestants at the same competition last year.

    Wagner's been written off before. I think everyone thought she was done after her worst national showing in 2011 when she finished in 6th place. We all know what happened after that.

    I'm rooting for both of these ladies to give us fans a great rivalry.
    I had written her off! So, tail between my legs, I won't do it this year.

    I agree with chuckm that Ashley, as the two-time champion with younger and more technically powerful skaters on her heels, has the tougher task. But Gracie is under a lot of pressure, too. People are expecting A LOT from her. It's only her second year on the senior circuit and it's an Olympic year so everyone expects it to be her year, etc, etc.


    Anyway, I enjoyed both last year and sooo hope they do well this season.

  13. #613
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    Found on twitter: http://instagram.com/p/chg3S2Har3/ Mirai's James Bond outfit. She looks great and in shape! Her SP from glacier falls included a 3F-3T. Let's hope this is her season. Maybe we'll finally get a glimpse of 2010 Mirai. I think James Bond is finally a break from the snoozer music ie spartacus and last years.

  14. #614
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    https://twitter.com/umbsgoblue/statu...348736/photo/1

    Holy crap at K. Chen's score. She got 118, which is great as a junior, but look at her TES -- 69!!!! For perspective, that would've been the third highest TES at Worlds. What the heck did she do? I haven't see any jump content notes on Twitter.

  15. #615
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    https://twitter.com/umbsgoblue/statu...348736/photo/1

    Holy crap at K. Chen's score. She got 118, which is great as a junior, but look at her TES -- 69!!!! For perspective, that would've been the third highest TES at Worlds. What the heck did she do? I haven't see any jump content notes on Twitter.
    If this girl survives puberty and growth spurts she is a future star. I sense that after Sochi the US is going to take over as the power again in Ladies skating especially with Japan losing Mao, Suzuki, Ando and maybe even Murakami.

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