State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

clairecloutier · Jul 7, 2013

I don't think we really have enough data for rankings like this. For example, what evidence do you have to support that Christina is just treading water? Her season ended on a pretty good note at 4CC and her public statements afterward were all determined and clearsighted about where she needs to improve. It may be her off season training is going very well. And how do you know that Angela Wang isn't making improvements over the summer? She had quite a strong season and is well positioned.

Also, considering that Ashley ended the season 1st at Nationals, 5th at Worlds, and 2nd at WTT, I think it's a little too soon to say she's "going down." Granted, the patched-together coaching situation is not encouraging, but I'm not giving up on her yet.

ForeverFish · Jul 7, 2013

eyria said:
I don't think we really have enough data for rankings like this. For example, what evidence do you have to support that Christina is just treading water? Her season ended on a pretty good note at 4CC and her public statements afterward were all determined and clearsighted about where she needs to improve. It may be her off season training is going very well. And how do you know that Angela Wang isn't making improvements over the summer? She had quite a strong season and is well positioned.

Also, considering that Ashley ended the season 1st at Nationals, 5th at Worlds, and 2nd at WTT, I think it's a little too soon to say she's "going down." Granted, the patched-together coaching situation is not encouraging, but I'm not giving up on her yet.

This is exactly what I was going to say. We haven't even seen most of the above compete in the off-season yet; the "big" names -- Gold, Wagner, Nagasu, Czisny, Zawadzki, and Gao -- have been out of the competitive spotlight since the end of last season. We have no idea what condition they're in. Ashley, whatever her coaching situation might be, is still the reigning US champion. Alissa is still known as a former leading lady. Gold is the obvious heir apparent to the US ladies' throne, but she's been notoriously inconsistent. Zawadzki and Gao had strong showings at Nationals and have both demonstrated that they're going all-out for the Olympic season. If anything, Nagasu and Caroline Zhang seem to be in the most danger right now.

AFAIK, only Gold has made any definite summer competition plans (Skate Milwaukee, next week). Czisny has already stated that she won't be competing until the GP, at the very earliest. The rest of them have been tight-lipped.

How many of the above have been in summer competitions, so far? Just Edmunds, Miller, Wang, and Siraj. Rachael Flatt has already put her career indefinitely on hold to pursue her studies at Stanford; I doubt if she'll ever come back. Nina Jiang, Samantha Cesario, Leah Keiser, and Vanessa Lam historically haven't been strong forces among the US ladies, but that could change. We've yet to see if Courtney Hicks can medal at 2014 Nationals, or if her pewter medal last season was a fluke.

Therefore, any assumptions that certain skaters are moving up, down, or treading water are ... well, not backed up by much evidence.

R.D. · Jul 7, 2013

Also, considering that Ashley ended the season 1st at Nationals, 5th at Worlds, and 2nd at WTT, I think it's a little too soon to say she's "going down."

As disappointed as I was with her effort at Worlds, I have to agree with this. Unlike the other "2008ers" she actually managed to stay in the top 5 two years in a row. When you look at the general trend the past two years, if anything she seems to be holding steady...not significantly improving nor regressing, just holding the fort...This was why I was critical of her towards the end of the season, because Gold is quickly catching up to her and yet she abandoned the plan of doing the 3-3. Anyway, she seems to finally realize that her strategy isn't going to get her on the podium without significant failure from her competition.

BUT- it is far too soon to say she's on a downward trend. There just aren't enough data points yet to make that assertion. Yes, she dropped one spot at Worlds (4th to 5th) but at all her other competitions, she finished on the podium which I'm sure any other US girl right now would kill for.

_______________

I will make the opposite assertion for Nagasu. Too soon to tell if she's heading upward...her disappointing turnout at Nationals virtually canceled any progress she may have made earlier in the season. But I'm not counting her out at this point. I think her chances are better than Czisny's anyway.

Krislite · Jul 7, 2013

eyria said:
I don't think we really have enough data for rankings like this. For example, what evidence do you have to support that Christina is just treading water? Her season ended on a pretty good note at 4CC and her public statements afterward were all determined and clearsighted about where she needs to improve. It may be her off season training is going very well. And how do you know that Angela Wang isn't making improvements over the summer? She had quite a strong season and is well positioned.

Also, considering that Ashley ended the season 1st at Nationals, 5th at Worlds, and 2nd at WTT, I think it's a little too soon to say she's "going down." Granted, the patched-together coaching situation is not encouraging, but I'm not giving up on her yet.

I wouldn't put to much weight on WTT results. Ashley at best is treading water, not going down. She's only "going down" compared to Gold, who is rising very fast despite her inconsistency.

drivingmissdaisy · Jul 8, 2013

Reginald said:
In my opinion,

Moving Up
Mirai Nagasu

For me Mirai is, at best, treading water.

chuckm · Jul 8, 2013

I don't see Mirai as moving up either: 3rd at US Nationals in 2011, then 7th in 2012 and 2013. Each GP season, she's medaled in one GP and finished off the podium in the other: 4th and 2nd 2010; 5th and 2nd 2011; 4th and 3rd 2012. I'd say she's treading water but slipping slightly nevertheless.

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Trewyn · Jul 17, 2013

Reginald said:
About halfway through the off season, what does everybody think of the relative positions of the US ladies?
So far the highest total score posted for a US Ladies Singles skater is Polina Edmunds 168.27 at the Broadmoor Open.
http://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/

In my opinion,

Moving Up
Polina Edmunds
Vanessa Lam
Hannah Miller
Gracie Gold
Mirai Nagasu
Courtney Hicks

Moving Down
Caroline Zhang
Nina Jiang
Alissa Czisny
Ashley Wagner
Rachel Flatt
Samantha Caesario

Treading Water
Yasmin Siraj
Leah Keiser
Agnes Z.
Angela Wang
Christina Gao

Your list is not making sense to me - unless you're only talking about the off-season. But lots of those skaters we've heard nothing about yet and won't be doing summer competitions any time soon. So yeah, not making sense.

kwanatic · Jul 17, 2013

I think it would have been better if the question had been phrased, "Based on last season, what does everybody think of the relative positions of the US ladies?"

IMO,

Moving Up:
Gracie Gold - solid results, obvious front-runner and favorite for a spot to Sochi
Polina Edmunds - won junior nationals, will likely get JGP assignments this season
Courtney Hicks - successful return after injury, placed 4th at nationals
Christina Gao - decent results (aside from nationals), candidate for 3rd spot to Sochi
Hannah Miller - strong JGP run, 2nd at JGPF, solid results at nationals
Samantha Cesario - good results at nationals and junior worlds

Treading Water:
Ashley Wagner - very solid season, maintained her positioning in the US, clear favorite for spot to Sochi
Agnes Zawadzki - decent season, maintained her positioning in the US, candidate for 3rd spot to Sochi
Mirai Nagasu - decent season, improvements to attitude and skating, possible candidate for 3rd spot to Sochi
Angela Wang - good JGP results, decent job at nationals
Yasmin Siraj - decent job at nationals, mediocre performance at junior worlds

Moving Down:
Caroline Zhang - clearly not strong enough to compete at the top any more
Nina Jiang - bad placement at JGP event, didn't compete at senior nationals
Leah Keiser - won a JGP event, had to withdraw from nationals

No Opinion
Alissa Czisny - nothing to base an opinion off of based on last season
Vanessa Lam - 4th place finish at one JGP event, withdrew for rest of season...no idea how she's doing
Rachael Flatt - has not indicated she's coming back to competition...probably shouldn't be included.

Jammers · Jul 17, 2013

It's a new season so anything can happen as we've seen in the past.

Mrs. P · Jul 19, 2013

I think Samantha Cesario could be building a case for that SA spot....

From Sylvia:

Samantha Cesario just debuted her sultry "Fever" SP at Liberty & takes the lead in Sr Ladies SP w/ 57.05, landing 3Lo3Lo, a high 3F & 2A.

57 seems low for a 3Lo-3Lo, so the second jump was probably UR or DG...however, good for her for trying it!

icellist · Jul 19, 2013

I watched the SP in the liberty thread. While her elements look good, she looked so darn slow out there. Is the rink at liberty super big? It seemed like she went back and forth only a few times.

ForeverFish · Jul 19, 2013

Mrs. P said:
I think Samantha Cesario could be building a case for that SA spot....

57 seems low for a 3Lo-3Lo, so the second jump was probably UR or DG...however, good for her for trying it!

It would be wonderful if she got the SA spot! If Alissa isn't ready by then, I don't know who else is more deserving.

mskater93 · Jul 20, 2013

Cesario likely got no credit for the fssp here as our didn't fly (point of emphasis) and the ccosp was probably called l2 because the camel/coe was unstable.

FSGMT · Jul 20, 2013

Mrs. P said:
I think Samantha Cesario could be building a case for that SA spot....

From Sylvia:

57 seems low for a 3Lo-3Lo, so the second jump was probably UR or DG...however, good for her for trying it!

Yes, the spins didn't look wonderful, but the jumps were good! If the 3-3 was UR, it was really close, I'm sure that with a couple of months working on it the rotation will become secure and clean, it is already a good combo! Go Samantha!! :popcorn:

(if she goes to SA and lands a clean 3Lo+3Lo, it would be the first clean 3Lo+3Lo in the Senior GP?)
EDIT: sorry, I forgot about Tara, bu watching the ones that she landed during the GP, most of them were really close but would have been UR today I think...

R.D. · Jul 20, 2013

Too soon to tell if anyone is moving up, down, or flatlining.

However, it APPEARS that, for example, Gold's results seem to be heading in the right direction (based on last season alone). What is unknown is whether she will keep improving or whether she will hit a "sophomore slump" as they like to call it.

Cherryy · Jul 20, 2013

And even though Wagner is probably treading water, she's still US' second best lady and none of the ones that are improving except for Gold is going to beat her, so saying who is improving and who is not doesn't tell much about who is the best and most likely to go to Sochi.

As for Samantha - most of you will probably disagree but I think she should have waited one more season and skate to Fever with lyrics. I like the program anyway but still...

vera01 · Jul 20, 2013

Cherryy said:
As for Samantha - most of you will probably disagree but I think she should have waited one more season and skate to Fever with lyrics. I like the program anyway but still...

I agree. While I'm not really looking forward to programs with lyrics, the Fever itself sounds better with lyrics.

chuckm · Jul 20, 2013

Apparently Cesario's FS at Liberty was a hot mess, with falls on both 3fs.

silverlake22 · Jul 20, 2013

I still think Cesario should get SA over Czisny, her SP at Liberty was really good and it's not like Alissa was ever capable of a 3lo-3lo combo or a 3f with Sam's kind of height even when she was at her best. Plus it sounds like she's still not fully recovered so it's probably smarter for her to wait rather than rush back to competition and risk getting hurt AGAIN. And maybe Sam is working on fixing URs which could explain the falls.

State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

clairecloutier

ForeverFish

R.D.

Krislite

drivingmissdaisy

chuckm

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Trewyn

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Jammers

Mrs. P

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icellist

ForeverFish

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FSGMT

R.D.

Cherryy

vera01

chuckm

silverlake22

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