State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season | Page 14 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
Any updates on Mirai?

Yeah, what's up with her?

I almost hate to bring it up.... but is everyone ruling her out and done for?

We're talking about Alissa again ... a Mirai comeback somehow doesn't seem that much more farfetched.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Yeah, what's up with her?

I almost hate to bring it up.... but is everyone ruling her out and done for?

No, theoretically she is still in the mix, but her chances are getting slimmer. Personally, I think she is in the midst of being surpassed and she needs a drastic turnaround if she hopes to contend.

Still- that said, most didn't suspect she'd make Vancouver especially given her fall 2009 season. She chose the right time to peak.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
No, theoretically she is still in the mix, but her chances are getting slimmer. Personally, I think she is in the midst of being surpassed and she needs a drastic turnaround if she hopes to contend.

Still- that said, most didn't suspect she'd make Vancouver especially given her fall 2009 season. She chose the right time to peak.

Yes, she's a long shot at this point. But has anyone heard anything about how she's doing? I just notice that Alissa is giving interviews and getting her name in people's minds again but I haven't heard a thing from Mirai.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I almost hate to bring it up.... but is everyone ruling her out and done for?

We're talking about Alissa again ... a Mirai comeback somehow doesn't seem that much more farfetched.

I think the difference is we haven't seen Alissa for a year, so she may come back better (or worse) than before. That uncertainty gives some people hope. With Mirai, she has had a few seasons of underwhelming results and is obviously out of favor with the USFSA given that she nailed a SP with a 3-3 and still finished behind a skater with a fall.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
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May 19, 2011
I think the difference is we haven't seen Alissa for a year, so she may come back better (or worse) than before. That uncertainty gives some people hope. With Mirai, she has had a few seasons of underwhelming results and is obviously out of favor with the USFSA given that she nailed a SP with a 3-3 and still finished behind a skater with a fall.

I honestly feel like Mirai was simply unlucky at nationals this year. Her SP was proof that she was on the upswing and her results on the GP were solid as well (3rd and 4th). She just picked a terrible time to be sick. Mirai was severely congested and that undoubtedly hurt her stamina in the FS.

I think if she comes back strong next season she has a good shot at that 3rd spot...or at least as good as anyone else and even better than some, but she's not exactly a front-runner. She'll have to show up and deliver two convincing performances.

I still think she's in the mix...
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I don't know how Mirai plans to fix her jumps, or, if not, whether the international judges will be lenient with UR deductions next season. She knows from Nationals that, at least on home ice, glaring technical flaws aren't going to fly. But I'd love to see her on the GP circuit. If she could get anywhere close to her 2010 shape, the third spot will be hers, even with Gao, Zawadzki, and Czisny in the running.

That would be great, honestly. The US would theoretically be sending three ladies (Ashley, Gracie, Mirai) who all have SOME chance, however slim, of making the podium in Sochi. Go, Mirai, go!
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
That would be great, honestly. The US would theoretically be sending three ladies (Ashley, Gracie, Mirai) who all have SOME chance, however slim, of making the podium in Sochi. Go, Mirai, go!

Mirai's best total score in the last two seasons would have placed her 9th at Worlds, so I think even theoretically it would be impossible for her to medal. If everyone skates well at Nationals Mirai will get, at best, the 5th highest PCS behind the top 2, Agnes, and Alissa. If she has any problems rotating her jumps she will get buried again.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Mirai's best total score in the last two seasons would have placed her 9th at Worlds, so I think even theoretically it would be impossible for her to medal. If everyone skates well at Nationals Mirai will get, at best, the 5th highest PCS behind the top 2, Agnes, and Alissa. If she has any problems rotating her jumps she will get buried again.

I did say that this hinges upon the marginal possibility that Mirai returns to her 2010 shape by Nationals. Otherwise, she obviously stands little chance of out-skating Gao, Zawadzki, or Czisny on the GP or in Boston.
 

b-man

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 25, 2010
I did say that this hinges upon the marginal possibility that Mirai returns to her 2010 shape by Nationals. Otherwise, she obviously stands little chance of out-skating Gao, Zawadzki, or Czisny on the GP or in Boston.
She already outskated Zawadski in the past GP season, without performing to her 2010 standards. She had substantially better international PCS than Agnes as well. Those favorable PCS scores Zawadski gets at Nationals are not repeated by judges outside the US. Czsny's jumps are a total question mark, never having been known for consistency or stability even when she is healthy.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
She already outskated Zawadski in the past GP season, without performing to her 2010 standards. She had substantially better international PCS than Agnes as well. Those favorable PCS scores Zawadski gets at Nationals are not repeated by judges outside the US. Czsny's jumps are a total question mark, never having been known for consistency or stability even when she is healthy.

Sorry--I accidentally included the GP in that comment. I meant to say that Mirai will have a difficult time beating any of the above mentioned at Nationals, where both Zawadzki and Gao are now favored over her. I agree that Czisny's scores/inflation will depend on how she shows up in January, but even semi-clean, she should have a better chance of getting the nod ahead of Mirai.
 

chuckm

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Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
I don't know how Mirai plans to fix her jumps, or, if not, whether the international judges will be lenient with UR deductions next season. She knows from Nationals that, at least on home ice, glaring technical flaws aren't going to fly. But I'd love to see her on the GP circuit. If she could get anywhere close to her 2010 shape, the third spot will be hers, even with Gao, Zawadzki, and Czisny in the running.

That would be great, honestly. The US would theoretically be sending three ladies (Ashley, Gracie, Mirai) who all have SOME chance, however slim, of making the podium in Sochi. Go, Mirai, go!

Mirai's 2010 form was FOUR YEARS AGO. She has occasionally skated well, but she still is plagued by URs.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
If everyone skates well at Nationals Mirai will get, at best, the 5th highest PCS behind the top 2, Agnes, and Alissa.
I disagree with this. If "charming, talented, trained" Mirai shows up at Nationals and has shown significant improvement throughout the fall, she will get the second or third highest PCS at worst because at her best she is nearly as strong as Wagner on components and at least equal to Gold. At her best, she has better SS and IN than Gao, Czisny, and Zawadski which will mean all 5 components will be higher more than likely. US judges are more than willing to give her good scores WHEN SHE SKATES WELL. That's just it, she hasn't skated well at Nationals the last couple seasons. Frankly, I don't know if she's made the right decisions in terms of training and coaching for being the best if that is truly what she wants to be.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Yes, but that's a REALLY big if...

Personally I think Nagasu tried too hard to be that more "serious" and "mature" skater and all it did was make her weaknesses more apparent. She does not seem to be able to pull off deep & serious and instead, it looks as if she is going through the motions, almost as if she is bored or doesn't want to be skating. Compound that with her UR issues and it is clear (to me at least) that she is heading in the wrong direction.

If she wants a shot, the old Nagasu needs to return....quickly.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
At her best, she has better SS and IN than Gao, Czisny, and Zawadski which will mean all 5 components will be higher more than likely. US judges are more than willing to give her good scores WHEN SHE SKATES WELL. That's just it, she hasn't skated well at Nationals the last couple seasons.

Her SP was pretty darn good at Nationals this year but she still got lower PCS than Zawadski, who herself could have skated better. I also disagree that she would get better PCS than a clean Czisny. The 2010 Nagasu is gone for good; as RD said, she has moved on to "mature" skating and it hasn't worked because what many of us miss is that youthful spark she had. A skater has to be supremely confident to pull off these kind of programs, and Mirai just seems hesitant going in to every jump, particularly in the long.
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
Her SP was pretty darn good at Nationals this year but she still got lower PCS than Zawadski, who herself could have skated better. I also disagree that she would get better PCS than a clean Czisny. The 2010 Nagasu is gone for good; as RD said, she has moved on to "mature" skating and it hasn't worked because what many of us miss is that youthful spark she had. A skater has to be supremely confident to pull off these kind of programs, and Mirai just seems hesitant going in to every jump, particularly in the long.

Whether she deserved lower PCS than Zwad is a different question. USFSA's love fest with Zwad is clear, but the reasons for it are anything but. She's had, at best, limited international success, she can't hold herself together in a competition to save her life, and the only excellent (or, IMO, even 'very good') thing about her skating is her powerful jumps, which she lands extremely inconsistently in competition.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
USFS loves Zawadzki, and they used to love Czisny. As for Gao, I don't think she is getting any favors from the Nationals judges just like Nagasu isn't. The difference is that Gao had better international results than Nagasu this past season (I know total score-wise they were comparable, but Gao had higher placements and made the GPF and 4CC team where she skated really well and was the top American lady there) and she is more consistent, and her jumps aren't at the mercy of the technical caller (rarely does Christina get URs and she only gets edge calls on her lutz, while Mirai's gotten them on her flips and lutzes), so that makes her heavy-edge for now.

However, I will say that Mirai perhaps has a higher score ceiling than Christina, internationally and nationally, contingent upon her rotating all her jumps and performing with some of the verve we saw back in 2010 (a big if) and Christina keeping her content the same as it was this season (again, I tend to think she won't). If Gao brings back the 3f-3t and puts 7 triples into her FS, then so long as her programs are not totally empty and suit her decently enough (I'm not worried about this because the Tango was definitely NOT a good match for her and she still managed to do well with it), then her score ceiling goes above Mirai's, unless Mirai makes similar changes, which I don't see happening to be honest.

Considering Christina is taking time off from Harvard, did so well as a full-time student, and is probably really frustrated at finishing 5th at Nationals 4 years in a row (especially when she showed she was capable of beating the silver and bronze medalists at a competition 2 weeks later), I think she will go all out and we will see her going for 3f-3t again. She used to do it so easily and if anything her jumps have improved since the coaching change, as has her stamina, she is stronger physically now and it's actually helped her have a more elegant appearance on the ice.

As for Mirai, I'm not sure the coaching change was the best move, and unlike Christina, her filling out has seemed to hurt her jumps, speed, and presentation a bit. Given that she was 16 in Vancouver, even if she were to get back to that same weight, I'm not sure the jumps would suddenly work, bear in mind they weren't working earlier that season with her 16 year old energy levels and body frame, and further her overall shape/frame size/weight distribution has probably changed since then because she was so young and still going through puberty.

Further, there's the whole having a different coach situation, and again, the arrangement she had with Frank is no longer possible because he's so far away, so even if she went running back to him and he took her back, it would be a different atmosphere (not to mention probably awkward and would have very little time to gel before nationals), and it seems she is pretty insistent on living with her parents and not moving out for now for whatever reason, so again the commute would be a factor, and that hurt her the last time.

Finally, Frank is working with Edmunds now who seems to be very motivated and driven, and is also an energetic 15 year old with the perfect body type who is coming off a very successful season, and can do 3lz-3ts and 3f-3ts with ease. She's skating senior at Nationals next season, so she's the competition, and potentially in the mix to make the team, so idk how that would go training with a primary competitor, especially because Edmunds appears to have more of a future in the sport than Nagasu at this point and has a realistic chance to beat Mirai at Nationals and maybe, possibly make the Olympic team.

So long story short, I don't think we can expect Mirai to suddenly show up and be like the 2010 Mirai. It's been too long, too many things have changed since then, she's not Yuna Kim, and even if she were, the differences between 16 and 20 (physically, emotionally, psychologically) are greater than those experienced between 19 and 23, so it's not comparable.

The real question is will Czisny be judged fairly/dumped by USFS judges or will the love affair continue after the 2011 Worlds nightmare and all this time off, and will Gao finally get some love from the USFS which would give her a much clearer path to the 3rd spot. If the love for Gao increases slightly while the marks for Zawadzki and Czisny fall back to (or at least closer to) earth, then Gao should be the favorite, however Zawadzki's talk of increasing the technical ante could change this if it actually facilitates in competition, as could a vintage performance from Czisny or Nagasu. Then you have the throw in the chance of some young energetic teen crashing the party and stealing the spot from one of these "vets" ala Nagasu in 2010. Oh the drama..
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Mirai's 2010 form was FOUR YEARS AGO. She has occasionally skated well, but she still is plagued by URs.

I'm not saying that it will happen, or even that I expect it to. But a fan can wish. IF (titanic "if," I know) she can get back to or close to that shape, she'll have a much better shot at medaling at Nationals and getting the Olympic nod.

ETA: Has Edmunds said that she'll be competing at senior Nationals next season? For a skater with almost no JUNIOR international experience, that sounds like an unrealistic goal.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
USFSA's love fest with Zwad is clear, but the reasons for it are anything but.

I think it is probably because Agnes is such a contrast to all the US skaters who skate the same type of baby-ballerina programs that she stands out more. She almost has a European quality to her skating, whereas in most of the other US skaters you see the influence of Michelle Kwan in their skating. For her SP to finish ahead of Mirai's was one of the worst decisions of the season IMO.
 
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