State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season | Page 16 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

MoonlightSkater

On the Ice
Joined
May 17, 2011
Polina will have a tough time cracking top 10 at US Nationals. I'm not sure how easy the transition will be, if she decides to make it at all, but I can tell you that her score at Junior Nationals this year would have placed her twelfth in seniors, just behind the snubbed Caroline Zhang.

I can also tell you that Polina's Gardena score would have put her in sixth place at the JGPF. With Radionova possibly headed for the GP next season, Polina could have an easier time, but international judges are known sticklers for clean, fully rotated triples. But hey--like R.D. said, it's better to have a one in a million chance than to have no chance.

Keep in mind that a junior program is shorter and has one less jumping pass than a senior program. I believe the PCS score is also given a multiplier in accordance with the lower TES expectations. Moving up to senior will increase her scoring potential.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Keep in mind that a junior program is shorter and has one less jumping pass than a senior program. I believe the PCS score is also given a multiplier in accordance with the lower TES expectations. Moving up to senior will increase her scoring potential.

PCS isn't given a multiplier in the junior programs. In both junior and senior, each aspect of PCS has a factor of 1.00 with a general component factor of 1.6. Polina, who was scoring 5's and 6's in PCS on the junior level, may see a marginal increase as a domestic senior.

One more jumping pass, in addition to a second step sequence, wouldn't have increased Polina's score enough to bring her into the senior ladies' top ten.
 

MoonlightSkater

On the Ice
Joined
May 17, 2011
PCS isn't given a multiplier in the junior programs. In both junior and senior, each aspect of PCS has a factor of 1.00 with a general component factor of 1.6. Polina, who was scoring 5's and 6's in PCS on the junior level, may see a marginal increase as a domestic senior.

One more jumping pass, in addition to a second step sequence, wouldn't have increased Polina's score enough to bring her into the senior ladies' top ten.

If you add about six points to her score she moves into the top ten. The differences between junior and senior could easily make up that point amount. I think it's reasonable to think that the top ten is entirely within reach for her.

Thank you for the clarification on PCS. I wasn't quite sure about that one.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
If you add about six points to her score she moves into the top ten. The differences between junior and senior could easily make up that point amount. I think it's reasonable to think that the top ten is entirely within reach for her.

Thank you for the clarification on PCS. I wasn't quite sure about that one.

I think she could be in the top ten if she had a stellar SP + FS, but as I said, the competition is always stiffest in the Olympic season. If we can discount the possibility that Alissa Czisny WON'T make the top ten (I'd give her an 80% chance, since it has happened before), and account for the return of Leah Keiser (unlikely to make the top ten, but is more experienced than Polina) and Vanessa Lam (can reasonably out-skate Polina), then Polina could--but likely won't--squeeze in by the skin of her teeth.

Personally, I think it's out of reach if she doesn't rotate her jumps. We all saw what happened to Mirai this year, and she dropped to seventh even with her PCS cushion. Unless Polina Edmunds is the second coming of Gracie Gold, she'll have one heck of a fight on her hands. It's not impossible for her, but it is statistically improbable.

And you're welcome.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Keep in mind that a junior program is shorter and has one less jumping pass than a senior program. I believe the PCS score is also given a multiplier in accordance with the lower TES expectations. Moving up to senior will increase her scoring potential.

Junior free skates have 7 jumping passes, just like senior free skates, and the same number of spins (3). There is only one senior element the junior FS doesn't have: the choreographic step sequence.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
Which you can add about 3-4 points for (assuming the skater gets +1's and +2s with the BV of 2.0).

Edmunds chances of making the Olympics in 2014 (based on her skating in 2013 through Gardenia) are less than 1%. Wagner and Gold would have to be way worse than they were in 2013 at Nationals (and that was Gold's worst short program in, well, I don't know) to not make the team. The skaters who have the most likely shot (fairly equal, will depend on what they put out in the fall and at Nationals) at the 3rd spot (in order of finish in 2013, with Czisny thrown in): Czisny, Zawadski, Hicks, Gao, Nagasu. Everyone else has a < 1% chance pretty much of making the Olympic and World team in 2014. It would take a monumental and epic disaster-fest for ALL the aforementioned skaters and a SOHL for someone else for it not to be the first two and one of the other 5 based upon latest data from scores of each of their last competitions. Basically, someone would have to get the Gillooly special going on at least 4 of these skaters, and that's not going to happen. ;)
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
PCS isn't given a multiplier in the junior programs. In both junior and senior, each aspect of PCS has a factor of 1.00 with a general component factor of 1.6. Polina, who was scoring 5's and 6's in PCS on the junior level, may see a marginal increase as a domestic senior.

One more jumping pass, in addition to a second step sequence, wouldn't have increased Polina's score enough to bring her into the senior ladies' top ten.

Junior scores are generally lower than senior scores and most people recognize that. PCS especially tends to be lower for junior competitions. Hannah Miller had a bunch of URs at Nationals and finished in 10th, and she doesn't have the content of Edmunds. And finishing 6th at this JGPF isn't saying much because the skaters placing 1st through 5th all skated phenomenally well with the majority executing 3-3s and 7 triple FS programs. That was an exceptional competition and usually it doesn't work out that everyone skates so well. Hicks had pretty low international scores all season and didn't even make the JGPF, and she URs her 3-3s too, and she was 4th at Nationals! I think Polina can contend with Hicks, so that being said, realistically that means a 4th place finish at Nationals would be possible.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Junior scores are generally lower than senior scores and most people recognize that. PCS especially tends to be lower for junior competitions. Hannah Miller had a bunch of URs at Nationals and finished in 10th, and she doesn't have the content of Edmunds. And finishing 6th at this JGPF isn't saying much because the skaters placing 1st through 5th all skated phenomenally well with the majority executing 3-3s and 7 triple FS programs. That was an exceptional competition and usually it doesn't work out that everyone skates so well. Hicks had pretty low international scores all season and didn't even make the JGPF, and she URs her 3-3s too, and she was 4th at Nationals! I think Polina can contend with Hicks, so that being said, realistically that means a 4th place finish at Nationals would be possible.

Hicks, however, jumps big, and we have to remember that she BROKE HER LEG on the 2011 JGP. It was probably excruciatingly difficult to get back into competitive shape in a less than a year, which excuses--to some extent--her less than stellar performances. Hicks, like Gold, seems to UR when she's nervous. She's such a powerful jumper that this is usually excused in the form of positive, or barely negative, GOE.

Polina beating Hicks and taking fourth would also mean beating three of the following four: Gao, Nagasu, Czisny, and Zawadzki. They're not the most consistent competitors, but they're significantly ahead of Edmunds in PCS and TES. Even with the extra step sequence, Edmunds would not have placed in the top ten at senior Nationals this year, and none of the top ladies will yield an inch when there are Olympic spots on the line. Optimistically, she has a one-in-a-million chance of making the senior podium at 2014 Nationals. REALISTICALLY, she'll scratch the bottom of the top ten.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
And finishing 6th at this JGPF isn't saying much because the skaters placing 1st through 5th all skated phenomenally well with the majority executing 3-3s and 7 triple FS programs. That was an exceptional competition and usually it doesn't work out that everyone skates so well. Hicks had pretty low international scores all season and didn't even make the JGPF, and she URs her 3-3s too, and she was 4th at Nationals! I think Polina can contend with Hicks, so that being said, realistically that means a 4th place finish at Nationals would be possible.

The first statement is not true. Hannah Miller finished SECOND at the JGPF last season and she did not execute a 3+3 nor did she execute a 7 triple FS.

Hicks only got hit with UR at JWs. In the fall, she was still on the comeback trail from breaking her leg, so rebuilding her strength like Max Aaron was throughout 2012, which is NOT a fair comparison. At JWs she looked exceedingly nervous and rushed her 3+3 attempts resulting in unsuccessful execution, but typically Hicks DOES get full credit for them, even if they sometimes get -GOE due to a sloppy landing. Implying Hicks usually under-rotates is a huge misnomer as it's simply nor true. Edmunds is more likely to under-rotate/get downgraded 3+3 than Hicks.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
I would love to see the 3rd spot go to a younger skater like Hicks, Wang, or Edmunds. I'm a bit tired of watching Alissa and Mirai looked terrified out there on the ice when the pressures on and i'm not sure how far Gao or Agnes can go.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
My dream team would be Wagner (for what she has done the last 2 seasons), Gold (because I seriously think she's the most talented of the non-Big 3 in the World), and Wang (I think she's the most talented of the youngsters who haven't hit it big yet in the US).
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
My dream team would be Wagner (for what she has done the last 2 seasons), Gold (because I seriously think she's the most talented of the non-Big 3 in the World), and Wang (I think she's the most talented of the youngsters who haven't hit it big yet in the US).

I'm fine with Wagner if she earns this. No more nonsense like this year Nat. If she bombs at the next Nat, she should stay home.
Actually I'm fine with the top 3. ANYONE who placed in the top 3 fair and square.

Now, for dream team
an improved Wagner
an improved Gold (most talented senior lady, but with Hicks and Wang tailing her closely, those two have equally big jumps, and equally questionable programs)
either Hicks or Wang (because they are the future)
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Hicks needs lot of work on her basic skating skills. She has a very herky jerky way of moving on the ice. She does have big jumps and i like that she doesn't try to be the typical delicate princess on the ice and is bold and attacks the ice and doesn't hold back.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
The first statement is not true. Hannah Miller finished SECOND at the JGPF last season and she did not execute a 3+3 nor did she execute a 7 triple FS.

Hicks only got hit with UR at JWs. In the fall, she was still on the comeback trail from breaking her leg, so rebuilding her strength like Max Aaron was throughout 2012, which is NOT a fair comparison. At JWs she looked exceedingly nervous and rushed her 3+3 attempts resulting in unsuccessful execution, but typically Hicks DOES get full credit for them, even if they sometimes get -GOE due to a sloppy landing. Implying Hicks usually under-rotates is a huge misnomer as it's simply nor true. Edmunds is more likely to under-rotate/get downgraded 3+3 than Hicks.

I said the majority, not all, of the competitors at the JGPF. In the FS Radionova, Pogorilaya, Wang, and Miyahara all landed 7 triples, that's 4/6 competitors and thus a majority. They all skated nearly foot-perfect as well (Hannah was also clean, though with only 6 triples).

Hicks did well at US Nationals but her international scores, for whatever reason, were nothing to write home about and Edmunds could likely top such international scores this coming fall. I'm not saying the injury didn't affect Courtney, obviously it did, but that doesn't change the fact that she has had UR problems herself and really needs to work on her artistry. Also, I'm saying that in the event that Polina rotates all her jumps, I can see her doing very well at Nationals. Obviously if she gets called for a bunch of URs, it will be hard for her to maybe even make the top 10, but I'm taking about a hypothetical situation where she hits it out of the park, in which case, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that she possibly could get onto the podium.
 

chuckm

Record Breaker
Joined
Aug 31, 2003
Country
United-States
Miyahara attempted 7 triples at JW 2013, but landed only one fully rotated triple, and it was a flutz:
3ze+3t<, 3f<, 3lo<, 2a, 2a+3t<, 3ze<, 3s<+2t+2t

Radionova landed 6 fully rotated triples: 3z+3t<, 3fe, 3fe+lo+3s, 3z, 2a, 2a, 3lo+2t

Lipnitskaia landed 6: 2a+3t+2t, 2a+3t, 3z, 3lo, 3fe+2t, 3fe, 2s

Pogorilaya landed 7, but had a messy skate: 3z+3t-to, 2a+3t-to, 3z, 2a, 3s-hd, 3fe+2t+2t, 3lo-to

Hicks attempted 7, but landed 6, was messy, and got a time deduction:
3f+3t-so, 3s<<, 3z+2t, 3lo^2a, 3z-so-hd, 3f, 2a, time
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Miyahara attempted 7 triples at JW 2013, but landed only one fully rotated triple, and it was a flutz:
3ze+3t<, 3f<, 3lo<, 2a, 2a+3t<, 3ze<, 3s<+2t+2t

Radionova landed 6 fully rotated triples: 3z+3t<, 3fe, 3fe+lo+3s, 3z, 2a, 2a, 3lo+2t

Lipnitskaia landed 6: 2a+3t+2t, 2a+3t, 3z, 3lo, 3fe+2t, 3fe, 2s

Pogorilaya landed 7, but had a messy skate: 3z+3t-to, 2a+3t-to, 3z, 2a, 3s-hd, 3fe+2t+2t, 3lo-to

Hicks attempted 7, but landed 6, was messy, and got a time deduction:
3f+3t-so, 3s<<, 3z+2t, 3lo^2a, 3z-so-hd, 3f, 2a, time

I was talking about JGPF but not JW. In the FS there Wang went clean, landing 7 triples and having 6 ratified (one <), Pogorilaya stepped out of a 2a but all of her 7 triples were clean and ratified, Miller was clean and landed 6 triples, 5 of which were ratified (one <), Miyahara skated clean landing 7 triples, 5 of which were ratified (two <), and Radinova went clean with 7 ratified triples. That is definitely a well-skated junior ladies FS event and the top 4 finishers all scored well over 160 points, which is unusually high for the JGPF.

During any other year, Polina's 159+ from nationals would have done well. Just looking at the numbers, it would have been enough for: bronze in 2011 (easily, 3 points off silver), silver in 2010 (ahead of Tuk), silver in 2009 (less than a point off of gold). And if you want to use JW as comparison, the score from Nationals would have been good for 4th, just barely losing to Pogorilaya by fractions of a point. I still think she can do well at Nationals and do significantly better than a 10th-12th place finish...
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
During any other year, Polina's 159+ from nationals would have done well. Just looking at the numbers, it would have been enough for: bronze in 2011 (easily, 3 points off silver), silver in 2010 (ahead of Tuk), silver in 2009 (less than a point off of gold). And if you want to use JW as comparison, the score from Nationals would have been good for 4th, just barely losing to Pogorilaya by fractions of a point. I still think she can do well at Nationals and do significantly better than a 10th-12th place finish...

We need to remember that Nationals is generally, but not always, scored higher than international competitions. Polina landed TWO clean jumping passes in her Nationals FS--solo 2A's. She got edge calls on both 3F's, UR'd all three of her triple combinations, and also UR'ed a 3S. Her skate was of less quality than Pogorilaya's; her hypothetical placement at JW would more realistically have been closer to Chartrand, Daleman, and Miyahara.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
We need to remember that Nationals is generally, but not always, scored higher than international competitions. Polina landed TWO clean jumping passes in her Nationals FS--solo 2A's. She got edge calls on both 3F's, UR'd all three of her triple combinations, and also UR'ed a 3S. Her skate was of less quality than Pogorilaya's; her hypothetical placement at JW would more realistically have been closer to Chartrand, Daleman, and Miyahara.

Potentially but it's hard to know. Lots of people were making a fuss because they considered Cesario's FS at JW to be of much more quality than Pogorilaya, yet Pogorilaya still managed to beat her by over 5 points. The outcome wasn't even that close. Keep in mind too that even with all the URs, Edmunds managed to edge out Long in the FS portion of the competition alone, and Long had a clean skate with 6 ratified triples. Long also competed on the JGP circuit this fall and did very well, she won silver her first time out and just missed gold by the slimmest of margins, and her FS there was not as good as the one she had at Nationals either.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Potentially but it's hard to know. Lots of people were making a fuss because they considered Cesario's FS at JW to be of much more quality than Pogorilaya, yet Pogorilaya still managed to beat her by over 5 points. The outcome wasn't even that close. Keep in mind too that even with all the URs, Edmunds managed to edge out Long in the FS portion of the competition alone, and Long had a clean skate with 6 ratified triples. Long also competed on the JGP circuit this fall and did very well, she won silver her first time out and just missed gold by the slimmest of margins, and her FS there was not as good as the one she had at Nationals either.

Like who? On the JW ladies' thread, the general opinion was that Cesario gave up her lead with a disappointing free skate with four UR's and one edge call, while Pogorilaya--though not clean--only received an "e" on the 3F-2T-2T.

Edmunds was able to beat Long by less than 0.3 points not because of her superior technical content, but because her PCS was four points higher. Long scored more than four points ahead of Edmunds in TES. Long also received a lower score on the JGP than at Nationals for a FS of less quality. What doesn't make sense?
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Like who? On the JW ladies' thread, the general opinion was that Cesario gave up her lead with a disappointing free skate with four UR's and one edge call, while Pogorilaya--though not clean--only received an "e" on the 3F-2T-2T.

Edmunds was able to beat Long by less than 0.3 points not because of her superior technical content, but because her PCS was four points higher. Long scored more than four points ahead of Edmunds in TES. Long also received a lower score on the JGP than at Nationals for a FS of less quality. What doesn't make sense?

If Polina can beat Barbie WITH URed jumps and Barbie not at her best can medal at and nearly win a JGP, then logic would suggest that even with URs, Polina could also medal/win at JGP events, which means she'd have good odds at qualifying for the final, and as I showed before, she could potentially do well and medal at the final as well, particularly if there aren't a lot of URs but maybe even if there are. And her PCS were pretty good for a junior, like you said 4 points higher than Barbie, those same PCS would have been the 4th or 5th highest among the field at JW, so really, I expect Polina can do quite well. Cesario had tons of URs at JW, and Miyahara had even more and lower PCS than what Polina got at Nationals, and they were 4th and 7th at JW which is pretty good considering. Jumps are whether they are rotated or not are only part of the score equation, and Polina has great spins and pretty good PCS which will help regardless of the outcome of her jumps (which she usually at least lands and rarely pops).
 
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