State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season | Page 17 | Golden Skate

State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

kwanatic

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Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
I'm not so sure if Polina's 3-3s will hold up (she really has to muscle that 3T) but her solo jumps were nice, her spins were decent and her skating skills seem to be very good as well. I love her tall/leggy appearance on the ice...very Carolina Kostner-esque. I like her style too and the way she relates to her music.

We'll have to see how she continues to develop but so far she's definitely one to watch out for. I don't really see her being in the mix at nationals next year in terms of a spot for Sochi though. I don't feel like she will have grown enough to be a player on the international scene by then but stranger things have happened...
 

Pepe Nero

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 11, 2011
This is extremely disrespectful, IMO, to whoever wins the third spot. There are several US ladies, excepting Wagner and Gold, who are more than capable of placing third at Nationals and earning a berth to the Olympics. To call their efforts "irrelevant" based on your "Czisny must go no matter how many mistakes she makes" bias is just :disapp: New talents and new faces will come onto the scene, as they always do. If you can't keep up, as neither Mirai nor Caroline could this year, then someone will undoubtedly rise to take your spot.

Oh, my. I did not mean to inspire such a reaction. The hazards of expressing one’s views on the internet, I suppose.

Some of my words were poorly chosen. Trying to think back to what was in my head when I wrote the post, I think what I meant (by “irrelevant”) was that there were no other American women (besides Wagner, Gold, and Czisny) who would have a decent chance of getting good program components scores from international judges. (Though, thinking about it now, Nagasu would too.)

My view (and I am aware I’m in the minority here) is that who should get a third spot is much more complex than who should get the other two. In my view, it is utterly arbitrary to award to it whomever happens to skate third best at Nationals—even assuming the judges’ judgment of this is objective (far-fetched, I know). This is why I think it is naïve when people say the third spot should go to the person who wins the bronze medal, as though that is or could be an objective judgment.

Since Nationals is traditionally the qualifying round for the Olympics, I suppose you could say that deserving means skating better on home ice. I don't believe, moreover, that Czisny, beautiful skater though she is, has been cheated out of what she "deserves" as a once-dominant US lady. She's had four chances to skate at Worlds, and placed out of the top ten all but one of those times. She's had three chances to skate at Four Continents, and never placed higher than fifth. For eight straight seasons, she consistently received two GP assignments, a privilege which she only forfeited when she had that epic meltdown at 2012 Worlds. The fact also stands that up-and-comers like Christina and Agnes have had the crucial competition experience of the pre-Olympic season (Christina actually placed HIGHER at 4CC than Alissa ever did), while Alissa has not. If Alissa falls at Nationals while Christina and/or Agnes are clean, would you be in favor of sending Alissa to the Olympics simply because you feel that she hasn't had enough chances to prove herself? I'm not saying that Alissa should be barred from going to the Olympics, whatever comes. But if she's going to go through the trials process as she intends to do, then she should have to EARN that spot with what she shows at Nationals.

Yes, of course, Czisny should have to prove herself just as everyone else must. Part of the purpose of my post was to raise the question, “What does it mean to earn?”

If Czisny were to skate as she did at the 2012 Worlds, the Challenge Cup that same year, or the GP final earlier the same season, then, no, I would not want or hope that she be named to the Olympic and World teams. I would mainly just feel terrible for her.

I'd also like to point out that, despite your harping on Misses Wagner and Gold, they have an international leg-up on Czisny right now. This will probably still be so when they hit the GP in the fall. Although Ashley doesn't have a solid 3-3, the jumps that she DOES have are far more consistent than Alissa's ever were. As for Gracie...well, let's not get into a useless debate about which US lady currently has the best technique. Really, on a good day, only Yuna can out-jump her. And, even with her "junior-ish choreography and presentation," Gracie's personal best score is a good six points higher than Alissa's.

I, too, would like Alissa to succeed at her comeback. But I don't believe that criticizing or outright insulting other skaters is the best way to make her case.

Here I am not sure what you’re responding to. Wagner and Gold don’t do a lot for me, but I don’t think I said anything particularly harsh or controversial about them in the post of mine to which you’re responding. I think the effort you and some others here make to criticize Czisny is far more striking than anything negative I said in the post of mine to which you’re responding about Wagner or Gold.

I would love to see the 3rd spot go to a younger skater like Hicks, Wang, or Edmunds. I'm a bit tired of watching Alissa and Mirai looked terrified out there on the ice when the pressures on and i'm not sure how far Gao or Agnes can go.

But let’s admit that this would be a poor criterion for judges to use. At any rate, when we interpret what emotions a skater has while competing, more often than not, we’re simply seeing according to the narrative Scott Hamilton, Sandra Bezic and the “everyman” commentator impart in us.
 

Pepe Nero

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 11, 2011
Might be well known but I doubt she sat through that. It was a snooze fest, really. I tried watching it a few times and couldn't finish the damn thing.

I'm not questioning Agnes's virtues just like I didn't question SJP's. I'm questioning the "maturity" factor in this piece of music over a Disney medley. How is this more mature?

If you keep a Sex and the city program age appropriate, then why do it? Oxymoron thing for you to say, yes? Why not chop off David's penis and put flower on them so it is age appropriate for everyone

It is a pretty terrible piece of music. Remarkably banal, a lazy Hollywood version of Middle-Eastern music. And what an awful film to draw inspiration from or associate with. It's really confounding why she would use it (other than, I'm gathering, David Wilson told her to). I could see using bad music if it were conventional and likely to appeal to conservative judges. I think it's by far the worst SP music of any fairly prominent US woman this past year.

The music has no value in itself, so if one is going to skate to it, one's program should capitalize on the cache of the SATC brand, which Zawadzki's program does not do.

And isn't she using it again in the upcoming season?
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
My view (and I am aware I’m in the minority here) is that who should get a third spot is much more complex than who should get the other two. In my view, it is utterly arbitrary to award to it whomever happens to skate third best at Nationals—even assuming the judges’ judgment of this is objective (far-fetched, I know). This is why I think it is naïve when people say the third spot should go to the person who wins the bronze medal, as though that is or could be an objective judgment.

I always thought that I was in the minority for holding the opposite view. ;)

You hold a qualifying tournament, U.S. Nationals. Come one, come all. Winners go on, losers go home. What could be more sporting than that?
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
^ Normally, that sounds perfectly reasonable. And in theory it's perfectly fair. It's fine for track, swimming, etc. when you're racing against a 100% objective clock. However, the judged nature of FS in general makes it sketchy. Because the outcome of EVERY competition must be decided by judges, there is no truly objective way to pick the team. If you use one comp, inherently you have the bias contained within that comp...if you use several, it reduces the influence of a single competition, but will depend on which ones are accounted for and the weight given to each...and if you have an independent committee do the selection, you may get their bias...(and essentially, currently it can be argued that the US National judges are this "committee")...

Which is the LEAST biased way to do it?
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
At any rate, when we interpret what emotions a skater has while competing, more often than not, we’re simply seeing according to the narrative Scott Hamilton, Sandra Bezic and the “everyman” commentator impart in us.

And let's not forget that different people will react differently to the same skater giving the same performance. (That's another pet peeve I have with Hamilton/Bezic but that's another thread in itself.)

If Czisny were to skate as she did at the 2012 Worlds, the Challenge Cup that same year, or the GP final earlier the same season, then, no, I would not want or hope that she be named to the Olympic and World teams. I would mainly just feel terrible for her.

Personally (say what you will), I feel this is a battle she is ultimately going to lose. Doesn't mean she shouldn't be proud of the effort, though.

The question is - after not one, but TWO comebacks after bitter disappointment, followed by two serious injuries in succession, does she have ANOTHER ONE in her? The odds tell me no...

That said, crazy things have happened before.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
^ Normally, that sounds perfectly reasonable. And in theory it's perfectly fair. It's fine for track, swimming, etc. when you're racing against a 100% objective clock. However, the judged nature of FS in general makes it sketchy. Because the outcome of EVERY competition must be decided by judges, there is no truly objective way to pick the team. If you use one comp, inherently you have the bias contained within that comp...if you use several, it reduces the influence of a single competition, but will depend on which ones are accounted for and the weight given to each...and if you have an independent committee do the selection, you may get their bias...(and essentially, currently it can be argued that the US National judges are this "committee")...

Which is the LEAST biased way to do it?

That's a question with many implications. If ONE competition (say US Nationals, where there are obviously federation favorites) is very biased, then statistically, the bias across several other competitions (international, where judging is based more on merit than on reputation) should be somewhat decreased. However, trying to determine the third spot based on more than one competition also discounts the fact that a skater may have had a poor first half of the season but surged back into focus during Nationals (a la 2010 Mirai Nagasu, who peaked at a perfect time).

First and second at Nationals won't be difficult to determine -- even though it's early, many of us have a strong idea of who those two will be. Traditionally, the bronze medalist is the 3rd member of the Olympic team; this year, though, Agnes Z managed to place third with multiple falls, while Christina Gao made one minor error and finished fifth. So how would that be fair? But perhaps in the Olympic season, judges will be more selective about their placements and turn a blind eye to their favorites (big "perhaps," I know).
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
^ Normally, that sounds perfectly reasonable. And in theory it's perfectly fair. It's fine for track, swimming, etc. when you're racing against a 100% objective clock. However, the judged nature of FS in general makes it sketchy. Because the outcome of EVERY competition must be decided by judges, there is no truly objective way to pick the team. If you use one comp, inherently you have the bias contained within that comp...if you use several, it reduces the influence of a single competition, but will depend on which ones are accounted for and the weight given to each...and if you have an independent committee do the selection, you may get their bias...(and essentially, currently it can be argued that the US National judges are this "committee")...

Which is the LEAST biased way to do it?

I think having Nationals be the decider is the best idea. There are times when I disagree with the placements but usually I can understand the argument for why a skater placed where she did. Having the 3rd place finisher go is best because you see all the skaters side-by-side as late in the season as possible. It is also less controversial than than using several competitions because people can not only criticize the person selected but also the selection method (i.e. why certain comps are weighted the way they are.) The fact is 1 or 2 GP events do not provide enough data points to make a decision, particularly when we see a notable decline in results between the GP and Nationals.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
The only reason I can't see one of the newer girls getting picked over Agnes, Christina, Mirai or Alissa is b/c the judges/officials know that going into the Olympics, newbies are rarely given the time of day...especially those who haven't even debuted on the GP yet. Known skaters have a better chance of receiving scores that will hold up (assuming they skate decently) than a new skater coming in for the first time.

Alissa is a long shot simply b/c she's coming off of two serious successive injuries and this late in a skater's career, the injuries tend to snowball. BUT if she manages a decent skate I definitely think the judges will give her that spot...and yes, over Agnes, Christina or Mirai. The USFSA loves Alissa; they always have. They would love to see her go to the Olympics and will probably do everything they can to help her...but she has to do the leg work meaning she has to at least do as well as she did back in 2012 (which wasn't that great but I bet it would be enough). It's not really fair but I totally can see it happening.

I would be really shocked if one of the newer girls gets that 3rd spot. A good kind of shocked though...
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
The USFSA loves Alissa; they always have. They would love to see her go to the Olympics and will probably do everything they can to help her...but she has to do the leg work meaning she has to at least do as well as she did back in 2012 (which wasn't that great but I bet it would be enough). It's not really fair but I totally can see it happening.

I think she did herself no favors with her last Worlds appearance, so if she does make the team I think it will be because she has fully earned it. Artistically she is miles better than Agnes and Christina so if Alissa skates well she should be placed ahead of them (at least on the second mark). I think she would also place ahead of Mirai if both skate well because the US judges apparently don't like Nagasu anymore. Mirai being placed behind Agnes in the SP at Nationals was simply criminal.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
...if [Czisny] manages a decent skate I definitely think the judges will give her that spot...and yes, over Agnes, Christina or Mirai. The USFSA loves Alissa; they always have. They would love to see her go to the Olympics and will probably do everything they can to help her...but she has to do the leg work meaning she has to at least do as well as she did back in 2012 (which wasn't that great but I bet it would be enough). It's not really fair but I totally can see it happening.

Unfortunately, I agree...
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
I think she would also place ahead of Mirai if both skate well because the US judges apparently don't like Nagasu anymore. Mirai being placed behind Agnes in the SP at Nationals was simply criminal.
How do people infer the bolded comment? Nagasu didn't really attack either program because she was ill. She managed to get through her SP mostly cleanly (other than getting a L2 on the CCoSp) but her PCS was definitely not what it could have been had she been healthy whereas Zawadski really attacked her SP and barely edged ahead of Nagasu due to the fall. The judges can't help you no matter what if you don't rotate your jumps, which is what happened in the LP to Nagasu. Her PCS was in line with the top tier of skaters at Nationals in both program.
 

skatel80

On the Ice
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
How do people infer the bolded comment? Nagasu didn't really attack either program because she was ill. She managed to get through her SP mostly cleanly (other than getting a L2 on the CCoSp) but her PCS was definitely not what it could have been had she been healthy whereas Zawadski really attacked her SP and barely edged ahead of Nagasu due to the fall. The judges can't help you no matter what if you don't rotate your jumps, which is what happened in the LP to Nagasu. Her PCS was in line with the top tier of skaters at Nationals in both program.
Amen :agree:
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
I just hope Nationals isn't a disaster with all the top girls falling on their butts. The pressure will be immense but not quite as much so as in 2010 when we only had two spots. Actually with the exception of Sasha the top 4 really went for it and skated as well as they could. Like Scott Hamilton said about Rachael and Mirai this is how you want your two top skaters to skate for those Olympic spots.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
How do people infer the bolded comment? Nagasu didn't really attack either program because she was ill. She managed to get through her SP mostly cleanly (other than getting a L2 on the CCoSp) but her PCS was definitely not what it could have been had she been healthy whereas Zawadski really attacked her SP and barely edged ahead of Nagasu due to the fall. The judges can't help you no matter what if you don't rotate your jumps, which is what happened in the LP to Nagasu. Her PCS was in line with the top tier of skaters at Nationals in both program.

Her LP was a mess, but her SP was very good. Agnes had no business edging Mirai with a fall. She is not so much better than Mirai that she should be getting higher PCS in every category with a major error. Mirai would have gotten around that score for that program if marked by an international judging panel; I don't think Agnes would have broken 60.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
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May 19, 2011
I don't think the USFSA doesn't like Mirai per se...they're just sick of waiting on her to get herself together, meaning she'll have to earn everything she gets from here on out. No gifts will be given to her, though it's not like they were generous to her even when she was skating better. She always received lower marks nationally than she did internationally (which was weird to me). Unlike Alissa, who will get a boost from the judges if she is semi-decent, Mirai will have to work for every point she gets and the judges won't go easy on her.

So I don't think they dislike her...but she's definitely not a federation favorite right now.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
I don't recall Nagasu EVER being a "federation favorite" as you're calling it...

It appears to me that someone like Zawadzki or Czisny may have ever-so-slightly greater room for error than, say, Gao or Nagasu. Of course, Wagner likely has the greatest wiggle room, as clearly evidenced this past year.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
I don't recall Nagasu EVER being a "federation favorite" as you're calling it...

It appears to me that someone like Zawadzki or Czisny may have ever-so-slightly greater room for error than, say, Gao or Nagasu. Of course, Wagner likely has the greatest wiggle room, as clearly evidenced this past year.

Like I said, she never was a favorite. They were always pushing Rachael over Mirai.

I disagree. Agnes and Alissa have much greater room for error than both Mirai and Christina. Think about it: Agnes was the only person in the top 7 at nationals to fall in both of her programs and yet she still ended up on the podium. Her content and programs were not so great that she should have placed that high. Look at Alissa's 2012 nationals performances; again, major errors in both programs yet she places 2nd.

Christina's only mistake at nationals this year was an error on her spin. She ended up 5th. IMO, she had a case for 3rd place if not 2nd...she gets zero love from the judges/federation. As I said, even when Mirai was skating well she still scored lower at home than internationally. Nothing will be gifted to either of them.

The federation favorites are Gracie, Ashley, Agnes and Alissa. Obviously the two who will receive the most boost are Gracie and Ashley. I'd put Alissa ahead of Agnes in terms of who is preferred for that 3rd spot. The red-headed stepchildren are Christina and Mirai which means those two will have a much harder time getting on the team. Much less room for error and they will have to clearly outskate Alissa and Agnes in order to get that 3rd spot.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I don't recall Nagasu EVER being a "federation favorite" as you're calling it...

It appears to me that someone like Zawadzki or Czisny may have ever-so-slightly greater room for error than, say, Gao or Nagasu. Of course, Wagner likely has the greatest wiggle room, as clearly evidenced this past year.

At least Ashley and Alissa have somehow earned the wiggle room they get. Mirai has had far better career results than Agnes and to me is better artistically. I feel like Agnes should at least have to skate clean to beat a clean Mirai on PCS. I don't get why Agnes gets this "wiggle room".
 
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