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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

  1. #1021
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    She needs to add some choreography and transitions to her LP.

  2. #1022
    Missing Tdizzle and SDiggity golden411's Avatar
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    Question

    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Basically I take the top 3 and give point values of 15,10, 5. Everything else gets zero points. Polina Edmunds has the unique distinction of showing up in 2 of the top 3 spots for one category, I will award her the average of the two rankings (will do the same for others in a similar situation).
    Hi, Mrs. P. Thanks for all your number-crunching in this thread and many others.

    But .. averaging the two rankings in the same category for Edmunds does not make any sense to me. Doesn't it penalize her?
    At the very least she deserves for her higher ranking to be counted, IMHO.
    And TBH, I do not understand why she does not deserve for both rankings to be counted in full. Yes, it would mean that she would receive the lion's share of the points for that category -- but to me, that would be a fair reflection of her consistent superiority.

    (I am not familiar enough with Nate Silver's work to know whether similar situations come up in the types of data that he analyzes, and if so, how he handles them.)

  3. #1023
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden411 View Post
    Hi, Mrs. P. Thanks for all your number-crunching in this thread and many others.

    But .. averaging the two rankings in the same category for Edmunds does not make any sense to me. Doesn't it penalize her?
    At the very least she deserves for her higher ranking to be counted, IMHO.
    And TBH, I do not understand why she does not deserve for both rankings to be counted in full. Yes, it would mean that she would receive the lion's share of the points for that category -- but to me, that would be a fair reflection of her consistent superiority.

    (I am not familiar enough with Nate Silver's work to know whether similar situations come up in the types of data that he analyzes, and if so, how he handles them.)
    Good question, golden411. I was back and forth on it. I think at the time, I felt that Polina had a distinct advantage because she did two JGP events while the others only had one GP under their belts, so it was my attempt to handicap this.

    But I can see a case for giving her all the points for now. So I'm going to change it.

  4. #1024
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    @Mrs. P Is Mirai honestly under all those people in all those categories or did you just not include her? Surely she is doing better than Zhang

  5. #1025
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    @Mrs. P Is Mirai honestly under all those people in all those categories or did you just not include her? Surely she is doing better than Zhang
    I only included GP and JGP events in my calculations, though I'm thinking that it probably wouldn't hurt to include Senior Bs as well for the sake of progression. I'll update it with the NHK scores, so Mirai will be on there!


    ETA: Heck, let's just go with it! Adding Senior B Scores. Disclaimer, technical panels vary, so it's not a a perfect comparison, but gives you a sense what each skater is capable of. Basically Courtney and Polina can be X factors due to high FS TES scores, but Christina is solid all the way around. Judges seem to like Samantha's style and Angela is still a factor as well. Mirai is not on the board yet, but you can't ignore that she gets decent PCS. I expect that she'll get on the board after NHK. Agnes performance so far does not reflect her bronze medal status in the U.S.

    Leaderboard:
    Ashley: 80
    Gracie: 70
    Courtney: 15
    Polina: 15
    Christina: 15
    Samantha: 10
    Angela: 5


    Overall
    Ashley Wagner: 193.81 (SA)
    Gracie Gold: 185.65 (SC)
    Christina Gao: 173.69 (SC)
    -----------
    Polina Edmunds: 171.21 (JGP Mexico)*
    Courtney Hicks: 171.08 (U.S. Classic)
    Samantha Cesario: 167.98 (SA)
    Polina Edmunds: 165.77 (JGP Belarus)*
    Gracie Gold: 164.68 (U.S. Classic)
    Mirai Nagasu: 164.51 (Finlandia Trophy)
    Ashley Cain: 162.39 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
    Courtney Hicks: 162.00 (SC)
    Samantha Cesario: 157.29 (U.S. Classic)
    Angela Wang: 155.87 (JGP Czech Skate)*
    Mariah Bell: 153.17 (JGP Mexico)*
    Angela Wang: 152.36 (JGP Baltic Cup)*
    Christina Gao 152.84 (Ondrej Nepela Trophy)
    Vanessa Lam: 152.28 (Finlandia Trophy)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 151.27 (U.S. Classic)
    Kiri Baga: 150.48 (Cup of Nice)
    Barbie Long: 148.19 (JGP Slovakia)*
    Agnes Zawadzki: 147.64 (COC)
    Yasmin Siraj: 142.32 (JGP Latvia)*
    Rachael Flatt: 130.18 (Cup of Nice)
    Hannah Miller: 128.20 (JGP Estonia)*
    Mariah Bell: 128.11 (JGP Baltic Cup)*
    Barbie Long: 124.16 (JGP Belarus)*
    Caroline Zhang: 110.12 (SA)


    Short Program
    Gracie Gold: 69.45 (Skate Canada)
    Ashley Wagner: 69.26
    Christina Gao: 62.82
    ------------
    Angela Wang: 61.41
    Gracie Gold: 58.49 (U.S. Classic)
    Angela Wang: 58.00
    Kiri Baga: 57.91
    Ashley Cain: 57.87
    Polina Edmunds: 57.78
    Agnes Zawadzki: 56.27 (U.S. Classic)
    Courtney Hicks: 54.80 (U.S. Classic)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 53.76 (Cup of China)
    Samantha Cesario: 53.51 (Skate America)
    Polina Edmunds: 52.49
    Christina Gao: 52.14 (Ondrej Nepela Trophy)
    Yasmin Siraj: 51.70
    Courtney Hicks: 50.71
    Mariah Bell: 49.91
    Samantha Cesario: 47.91 (U.S. Classic)
    Caroline Zhang: 45.76
    Barbie Long: 47.56
    Barbie Long: 45.71
    Mariah Bell: 43.84
    Rachael Flatt: 41.59
    Hannah Miller: 39.17

    Short Program TES
    Gracie Gold: 38.53
    Ashley Wagner: 36.21
    Angela Wang: 35.89
    -------------
    Angela Wang: 35.02
    Christina Gao: 33.96
    Polina Edmunds: 33.35
    Courtney Hicks: 31.80
    Gracie Gold: 31.37 (U.S. Classic)
    Ashley Cain: 31.30
    Kiri Baga: 31.11
    Agnes Zawadzki: 30.73 (U.S. Classic)
    Polina Edmunds: 29.12
    Yasmin Siraj: 28.90
    Agnes Zawadzki: 28.89
    Christina Gao: 27.56
    Samantha Cesario: 27.54
    Courtney Hicks: 26.67
    Mariah Bell: 26.55
    Mirai Nagasu: 25.81[/B]
    Barbie Long: 25.27
    Barbie Long: 25.05
    Samantha Cesario: 23.31
    Caroline Zhang: 21.04
    Mariah Bell: 21.01
    Rachael Flatt: 19.23
    Hannah Miller: 16.86

    Short Program PCS
    Ashley Wagner: 33.05
    Gracie Gold: 30.92 (Skate Canada)
    Christina Gao: 28.86
    -------------
    Mirai Nagasu: 28.20
    Gracie Gold: 28.12 (U.S. Classic)
    Kiri Baga: 26.80
    Ashley Cain: 26.57
    Agnes Zawadzki: 26.54
    Angela Wang: 25.98
    Angela Wang: 25.52
    Samantha Cesario: 25.97
    Agnes Zawadzki: 25.84
    Christina Gao: 25.58 (Ondrej Nepela Trophy)
    Courtney Hicks 25.00 (U.S. Classic)
    Caroline Zhang: 24.72
    Samantha Cesario: 24.60
    Polina Edmunds: 24.43
    Courtney Hicks 24.03 (Skate Canada)
    Polina Edmunds: 23.37
    Rachael Flatt: 23.36
    Mariah Bell: 23.36
    Mariah Bell: 22.83
    Yasmin Siraj: 22.80
    Hannah Miller: 22.31
    Barbie Long: 22.29
    Barbie Long: 20.66

    Free Skate
    Ashley Wagner: 124.55
    Gracie Gold: 117.20
    Courtney Hicks: 117.08
    -------------
    Samantha Cesario: 114.47
    Polina Edmunds: 113.43
    Polina Edmunds: 113.28
    Courtney Hicks: 111.30
    Christina Gao: 110.87
    Mirai Nagasu: 110.50
    Samantha Cesario: 109.38
    Gracie Gold: 106.19
    Ashley Cain: 104.52
    Mariah Bell: 103.26
    Christina Gao: 100.70
    Barbie Long: 100.63
    Vanessa Lam: 95.97
    Agnes Zawadzki: 95.00
    Angela Wang: 94.46
    Angela Wang: 94.36
    Agnes Zawadzki: 93.91
    Kiri Baga: 92.57
    Yasmin Siraj: 90.62
    Hannah Miller: 89.03
    Rachael Flatt: 88.59
    Mariah Bell: 84.27
    Barbie Long: 78.45
    Caroline Zhang: 65.36


    Free Skate TES
    Polina Edmunds: 62.37
    Courtney Hicks: 62.31 (Skate Canada)
    Courtney Hicks: 61.48 (U.S. Classic)
    ------------
    Polina Edmunds: 61.82
    Ashley Wagner: 58.54
    Samantha Cesario: 56.98
    Gracie Gold: 56.09
    Samantha Cesario: 55.79
    Christina Gao: 53.95
    Barbie Long: 53.54
    Mirai Nagasu: 53.46
    Mariah Bell: 52.95
    Ashley Cain: 51.51
    Angela Wang: 49.25
    Christina Gao: 49.09
    Gracie Gold: 49.05
    Angela Wang: 46.59
    Yasmin Siraj: 46.39
    Vanessa Lam: 45.73
    Rachael Flatt: 45.31
    Kiri Baga: 44.85
    Agnes Zawadzki: 43.26 (Cup of China)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 42.79 (U.S. Classic)
    Hannah Miller 41.26
    Barbie Long: 40.64
    Mariah Bell: 40.44
    Caroline Zhang: 24.27

    Free Skate PCS
    Ashley Wagner: 66.01
    Gracie Gold: 62.11
    Samantha Cesario: 58.90
    -------------
    Gracie Gold: 58.14
    Mirai Nagasu 57.04
    Christina Gao: 56.92
    Courtney Hicks: 55.60
    Ashley Cain: 54.01
    Christina Gao: 53.61
    Samantha Cesario: 53.59
    Agnes Zawadzki: 53.21 (U.S. Classic)
    Vanessa Lam:52.24
    Agnes Zawadzki: 51.65 (Cup of China)
    Polina Edmunds: 51.61
    Polina Edmunds: 50.91
    Mariah Bell: 50.31
    Courtney Hicks: 49.99
    Angela Wang: 48.87
    Kiri Baga: 48.72
    Angela Wang: 48.11
    Barbie Long: 48.09
    Hannah Miller 47.77
    Yasmin Siraj: 44.23
    Mariah Bell: 43.83
    Rachael Flatt: 43.28
    Caroline Zhang: 41.09
    Barbie Long: 40.81

  6. #1026
    Missing Tdizzle and SDiggity golden411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Good question, golden411. I was back and forth on it. I think at the time, I felt that Polina had a distinct advantage because she did two JGP events while the others only had one GP under their belts, so it was my attempt to handicap this.

    But I can see a case for giving her all the points for now. So I'm going to change it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    I only included GP and JGP events in my calculations, though I'm thinking that it probably wouldn't hurt to include Senior Bs as well for the sake of progression. I'll update it with the NHK scores, so Mirai will be on there!


    ETA: Heck, let's just go with it! Adding Senior B Scores. Disclaimer, technical panels vary, so it's not a a perfect comparison, but gives you a sense what each skater is capable of. Basically Courtney and Polina can be X factors due to high FS TES scores, but Christina is solid all the way around. Judges seem to like Samantha's style and Angela is still a factor as well. Mirai is not on the board yet, but you can't ignore that she gets decent PCS. I expect that she'll get on the board after NHK. Agnes performance so far does not reflect her bronze medal status in the U.S. ....
    Thanks all around, Mrs. P.

    (Will stick my neck out and say that when watching the NBC broadcast of Skate Canada, I enjoyed the LP from Hicks more than the SP from Gold that had aired just before. Did not see Gold's LP. As the season moves forward, hoping for the best for Zawadzki, Nagasu, Gao, etc., etc.)

  7. #1027
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    Anyone still holding out hope for Mirai to go to Sochi after NHK this weekend? I was very disappointed for Mirai to get so much lower PCS than Gracie in the LP (~7 points) and I think that is a bad sign because the international judges always liked Mirai a lot, perhaps more than US judges.

  8. #1028
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    Anything is possible. But I don't think she has a very high chance at this point.

    I was thinking how it is kind of ironic Gracie is now with Frank, moving from Chicago to train with him, and Mirai used to commute 2 hours to train with him, but didn't end up moving closer and the commute took it's toll and then she ultimately split from him. For that, and other reasons, of course. I just don't see her getting back to the level she was at with Frank.

  9. #1029
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexaD View Post
    Anything is possible. But I don't think she has a very high chance at this point.

    I was thinking how it is kind of ironic Gracie is now with Frank, moving from Chicago to train with him, and Mirai used to commute 2 hours to train with him, but didn't end up moving closer and the commute took it's toll and then she ultimately split from him. For that, and other reasons, of course. I just don't see her getting back to the level she was at with Frank.
    So true
    And so sad

  10. #1030
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexaD View Post
    Anything is possible. But I don't think she has a very high chance at this point.

    I was thinking how it is kind of ironic Gracie is now with Frank, moving from Chicago to train with him, and Mirai used to commute 2 hours to train with him, but didn't end up moving closer and the commute took it's toll and then she ultimately split from him. For that, and other reasons, of course. I just don't see her getting back to the level she was at with Frank.
    Goes to show the Gold family has the means the Nagasu family does not, that's all.

  11. #1031
    At the rink. Again. mskater93's Avatar
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    Or that Gracie is willing to do more to achieve her goals. IIRC, FrankC offered to find a family for Mirai to live with and she/her family refused.

  12. #1032
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    I always have a soft spot for Mirai. Even if the boot issues are what contributed to her bad skate at NHK, I'm happy that she didn't make the excuse after she finished.

  13. #1033
    Missing Tdizzle and SDiggity golden411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noidont View Post
    Goes to show the Gold family has the means the Nagasu family does not, that's all.
    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    Or that Gracie is willing to do more to achieve her goals. IIRC, FrankC offered to find a family for Mirai to live with and she/her family refused.
    Am reacting to these two posts without having read the entire thread, so apologies if I have missed the full context.

    I do not think it is fair at all to frame the comparison of the Nagasu/Gold/Carroll situations as Gold is "willing to do more to achieve her goals."

    Gold moved to California with her mother, twin/best friend Carly, and their dog. They all live together as a family in a home of their own. (I do not mean that they bought their residence, for I do not know whether they did. I mean that non-family members are not under the same roof.)

    Nagasu chose not to live away from her entire family. Gold lives away from her father (and even back in Illinois, the Gold women lived away from him during the week, for training purposes).

  14. #1034
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    Quote Originally Posted by shanm View Post
    I always have a soft spot for Mirai. Even if the boot issues are what contributed to her bad skate at NHK, I'm happy that she didn't make the excuse after she finished.
    Before she skated her long program she did a few beautiful triples so I'm not sure if she had boot issues she could even do those. Her problem is that she lacks confidence.

  15. #1035
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden411 View Post
    Am reacting to these two posts without having read the entire thread, so apologies if I have missed the full context.

    I do not think it is fair at all to frame the comparison of the Nagasu/Gold/Carroll situations as Gold is "willing to do more to achieve her goals."

    Gold moved to California with her mother, twin/best friend Carly, and their dog. They all live together as a family in a home of their own. (I do not mean that they bought their residence, for I do not know whether they did. I mean that non-family members are not under the same roof.)

    Nagasu chose not to live away from her entire family. Gold lives away from her father (and even back in Illinois, the Gold women lived away from him during the week, for training purposes).
    This. I also got the impression (sorry if this is too speculative, it was based on something at the time but it was well over a year ago and I can't recall) that Nagasu's parents were not willing to let her go live with another family even if/though she expressed interest in this. Some people thought at the time, (and perhaps still think) that Nagasu, then 18, was an 'adult' and should tell her mom and dad to shove it and move on down to Frank. To me, this showed a startling lack of awareness or understanding of several things, from why someone might not want to basically be cut off from their parents for any reason (especially at such a relatively young age) to how mature most 18 year olds realistically are now, to the fact that Nagasu is still financially dependent on her parents (the answer to that one was get a part time job, do ANYTHING to achieve the goal but when skating is already a full time job, that is much easier said than done).

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