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Thread: State of American Ladies: 2013-14 Season

  1. #1066
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    Quote Originally Posted by ucrgirl View Post
    No doubt Ashley is the top American, but I think her international stock may have dropped a bit due to losing the FS to Adelina.
    I don't agree with this. Ashley still got the highest PCS in the competition. Furthermore, Caro loses to a ton of girls but still gets huge scores when she skates reasonably well.

  2. #1067
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    You're right. All these numbers could completely go out the window come nationals.

    That said...momentum does matter for some and Ashley did herself a huge favor by going for it during the GP.

    As for Agnes and Mirai and slow starts, I agree with you to some extent, but even for them their slow start is REALLY SLOW. I've never seen Mirai score so low...

    And Christina is definitely still part of the conversation, I think she's a contender still.

    But for me what the trends tell me is there a LOT of dark horses for No. 3, which I can't really say the same for the men, which appears to be a four-way race with perhaps one or two dark horses.
    Still like that you assembled that list, though, because it helps us see where everyone stands currently. Having said that, it usually all goes out the window come Nationals as the "peak-late" skaters begin to hit their stride and the "peak-early" skaters sort of taper off (or go downhill...).

    I'll agree about Nagasu's start being slower than usual. Still cannot count her out however.

    Perhaps after TEB, Cesario could begin to enter the wildcard picture but she is STILL a VERY LONG shot.

    ________________________________

    BTW, Wagner is doing just fine. In fact, she scored 127 and set a personal best with MISTAKES. The question for her is whether she can build on that, or whether cracks begin to appear in the foundation.

  3. #1068
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaylee View Post
    I dunno. I think Agnes, Mirai, and Christina's hopes have all plunged with the GP. Actually, I think Christina's Olympic hopes died in TEB today with that FS. It was not a good performance for so many reasons, but even with the jumps, I can't see what difference it would make. She's a nice girl and quite likable off the ice, but on the ice, she just doesn't have enough.

    Ashley solidified herself as US #1. Gracie has lost a bit of momentum since last season relative to the other US ladies, but she's still got a pretty good hold on that #2 spot.

    I think Samantha Cesario has improved her stock a bit. Everyone likes her programs and her maturity, performance abilities. She doesn't have great SS nor does she have complicated programs, but overall, she's enjoyable to watch.

    But really, with the GP almost over, the US lady that I would really like to get the third spot is Polina Edmunds. She has two terrific programs--I love her SP and I like her FS. She has a great jump arsenal, and though she's not as big a jumper as Gracie, she's consistent right now. She's attempting more and accomplishing more than Mirai/Agnes/Christina have on the GP. She has zero experience as a senior, but so what? The third US skater is not going to compete for a medal. But the Olympic experience would be immensely helpful for the next quad, when she would be a medal contender and Olympic medal hopeful.
    I just posted about Polina in another thread. I have not seen her skate yet but hear she is quite wonderful. and I agree with your reasoning as far as the experience helping her in the future goes. Why send someone who's at the last phase of her middling career rather than someone extremely promising at the dawn of hers?

    That being said, I was an ENORMOUS Mirai fan and would like nothing better than for her to return to form.

  4. #1069
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    I take GP results with a grain of salt. if all Olympic hopes were based on GP performances, Sasha wouldn't have been on the team in 2002, Alissa would have been on the team in 2006, and Mirai wouldn't have been on the team in 2010.

  5. #1070
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    Quote Originally Posted by shanm View Post
    I take GP results with a grain of salt. if all Olympic hopes were based on GP performances, Sasha wouldn't have been on the team in 2002, Alissa would have been on the team in 2006, and Mirai wouldn't have been on the team in 2010.
    As I said earlier, the number can go out the window come nationals, still the goal is just to capture trends and momentum.

  6. #1071
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    Quote Originally Posted by shanm View Post
    I take GP results with a grain of salt. if all Olympic hopes were based on GP performances, Sasha wouldn't have been on the team in 2002, Alissa would have been on the team in 2006, and Mirai wouldn't have been on the team in 2010.
    In Ashley's case though, one cannot make a compelling case to send THREE skaters ahead of her, regardless of the results at Nationals. If she bombs the SP, she will withdraw with an injury and get on the team. If she skates a good SP she will be 10+ points ahead of all but a handful of skaters and in the LP will have a 5-10 point cushion in PCS alone.

  7. #1072
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    In Ashley's case though, one cannot make a compelling case to send THREE skaters ahead of her, regardless of the results at Nationals. If she bombs the SP, she will withdraw with an injury and get on the team. If she skates a good SP she will be 10+ points ahead of all but a handful of skaters and in the LP will have a 5-10 point cushion in PCS alone.
    That isn't solely based on her GP result, but more so her track record for the past couple of seasons.

  8. #1073
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    Score tracker updated after Rostelecom Cup (Top five gets points in each category; see score breakdown below)
    Ashley: 167
    Gracie: 119
    Polina: 22
    Angela: 20
    Courtney: 18
    Samantha: 14
    Christina: 14
    Mirai: 7

    Comments
    1.) Congrats on your medal, Mirai! And with that she gets on the score board. She is definitely in dark horse status now or given her overall score, perhaps a clear contender for the No. 3 spot.
    2.) After a clean SP, Agnes disappoints again the FS. As others noted, the fact she has yet to skate a clean FS internationally should raise red flags.

    Questions
    1.) Can a junior lady (internationally) spoil the party and get a spot? I say yes. Polina and Angela are both great skaters with a consistent 3-3s in their arsenal. However, they will need to do clean program to get the high TES to edge out the veterans. I look forward to seeing how they do at the JGPF as it will give us a more updated picture of their skating.
    2.) Can Ashley keep up the momentum? Ashley hasn't been perfect in this GP series, but she is scoring well and best of all had the 3F-3T ratified in three out of four attempts. We will actually have an additional data point for her since she is going to the Grand Prix Final.
    3.) Is Gracie Gold's spot locked? It looks like it, right? However her low scores in the FS should be a concern. Her 117 is not that much higher than scores from Mirai, Samantha and Courtney. Also the fact that she is changing her SP in the middle of the season may also create some issues. Her 3Z-3T has not been as consistent as past seasons.
    4.) Who is in contention for the third spot? Outside of Ashley the GP results have been quite mixed, so it's hard to say. But i think it's safe to say that Mirai, Christina, Samantha and Courtney are major contenders with Angela and Polina as dark horses.

    *** Score breakdown below***

    Overall
    Ashley Wagner: 194.37 (TEB)
    Ashley Wagner: 193.81 (SA)
    Gracie Gold: 185.65 (SC)
    -----------
    Gracie Gold: 177.81 (NHK)
    Mirai Nagasu: 175.37 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Christina Gao: 173.69 (SC)
    Samantha Cesario: 172.70 (TEB)
    Polina Edmunds: 171.21 (JGP Mexico)*
    Courtney Hicks: 171.08 (U.S. Classic)
    Samantha Cesario: 167.98 (SA)
    Polina Edmunds: 165.77 (JGP Belarus)*
    Gracie Gold: 164.68 (U.S. Classic)
    Mirai Nagasu: 164.51 (Finlandia Trophy)
    Ashley Cain: 162.39 (Nebelhorn Trophy)
    Courtney Hicks: 162.00 (SC)
    Samantha Cesario: 157.29 (U.S. Classic)
    Angela Wang: 155.87 (JGP Czech Skate)*
    Mariah Bell: 153.17 (JGP Mexico)*
    Angela Wang: 152.36 (JGP Baltic Cup)*
    Christina Gao 152.84 (Ondrej Nepela Trophy)
    Vanessa Lam: 152.28 (Finlandia Trophy)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 151.27 (U.S. Classic)
    Kiri Baga: 150.48 (Cup of Nice)
    Barbie Long: 148.19 (JGP Slovakia)*
    Agnes Zawadzki: 147.64 (COC)
    Yasmin Siraj: 142.32 (JGP Latvia)*
    Mirai Nagasu: 141.71 (NHK Trophy)
    Rachael Flatt: 130.18 (Cup of Nice)
    Hannah Miller: 128.20 (JGP Estonia)*
    Mariah Bell: 128.11 (JGP Baltic Cup)*
    Barbie Long: 124.16 (JGP Belarus)*
    Caroline Zhang: 110.12 (SA)


    Short Program
    Gracie Gold: 69.45 (Skate Canada)
    Ashley Wagner: 69.26 (Skate America)
    Ashley Wagner: 66.75 (Trophee Eric Bompard)
    ------------
    Gracie Gold 62.83 (NHK)
    Christina Gao: 62.82 (Skate Canada)
    Angela Wang: 61.41
    Agnes Zawadzki: 60.45 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Mirai Nagasu: 60.44 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Gracie Gold: 58.49 (U.S. Classic)
    Christina Gao: 58.81 (Trophee Eric Bompard)
    Angela Wang: 58.00
    Kiri Baga: 57.91
    Ashley Cain: 57.87
    Polina Edmunds: 57.78
    Agnes Zawadzki: 56.27 (U.S. Classic)
    Courtney Hicks: 54.80 (U.S. Classic)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 53.76 (Cup of China)
    Samantha Cesario: 53.51 (Skate America)
    Polina Edmunds: 52.49
    Christina Gao: 52.14 (Ondrej Nepela Trophy)
    Yasmin Siraj: 51.70
    Courtney Hicks: 50.71
    Mirai Nagasu: 51.01
    Mariah Bell: 49.91
    Samantha Cesario: 47.91 (U.S. Classic)
    Caroline Zhang: 45.76
    Barbie Long: 47.56
    Barbie Long: 45.71
    Mariah Bell: 43.84
    Rachael Flatt: 41.59
    Hannah Miller: 39.17

    Short Program TES
    Gracie Gold: 38.53 (SC)
    Ashley Wagner: 36.21 (SA)
    Angela Wang: 35.89
    -------------
    Angela Wang: 35.02
    Ashley Wagner: 34.53 (TEB)
    Christina Gao: 33.96 (SC)
    Polina Edmunds: 33.35
    Gracie Gold: 32.55 (NHK)
    Mirai Nagasu: 32.45 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 32.35 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Courtney Hicks: 31.80
    Gracie Gold: 31.37 (U.S. Classic)
    Ashley Cain: 31.30
    Kiri Baga: 31.11
    Agnes Zawadzki: 30.73 (U.S. Classic)
    Samantha Cesario: 30.52 (TEB)
    Christina Gao: 29.98 (TEB)
    Polina Edmunds: 29.12
    Yasmin Siraj: 28.90
    Agnes Zawadzki: 28.89
    Christina Gao: 27.56
    Samantha Cesario: 27.54
    Courtney Hicks: 26.67
    Mariah Bell: 26.55
    Mirai Nagasu: 25.81[/B]
    Barbie Long: 25.27
    Barbie Long: 25.05
    Mirai Nagasu: 23.61
    Samantha Cesario: 23.31
    Caroline Zhang: 21.04
    Mariah Bell: 21.01
    Rachael Flatt: 19.23
    Hannah Miller: 16.86

    Short Program PCS
    Ashley Wagner: 33.05 (SA)
    Ashley Wagner: 32.22 (SC)
    Gracie Gold: 30.92 (SC)
    -------------
    Gracie Gold: 30.28 (NHK)
    Christina Gao: 28.86 (SC)
    Christina Gao: 28.83 (TEB)
    Mirai Nagasu: 28.20 (Finlandia)
    Gracie Gold: 28.12 (U.S. Classic)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 28.09 (Rostelecom)
    Mirai Nagasu: 27.99 (Rostelecom)
    Mirai Nagasu: 27.40 (NHK)
    Kiri Baga: 26.80
    Ashley Cain: 26.57
    Agnes Zawadzki: 26.54
    Samantha Cesario: 26.03 (TEB)
    Angela Wang: 25.98
    Angela Wang: 25.52
    Samantha Cesario: 25.97 (SA)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 25.84
    Christina Gao: 25.58 (Ondrej Nepela Trophy)
    Courtney Hicks 25.00 (U.S. Classic)
    Caroline Zhang: 24.72
    Samantha Cesario: 24.60
    Polina Edmunds: 24.43
    Courtney Hicks 24.03 (Skate Canada)
    Polina Edmunds: 23.37
    Rachael Flatt: 23.36
    Mariah Bell: 23.36
    Mariah Bell: 22.83
    Yasmin Siraj: 22.80
    Hannah Miller: 22.31
    Barbie Long: 22.29
    Barbie Long: 20.66

    Free Skate
    Ashley Wagner: 127.62
    Ashley Wagner: 124.55
    Gracie Gold: 117.20
    -------------
    Courtney Hicks: 117.08 (Salt Lake Sr. B)
    Samantha Cesario 116.15 (TEB)
    Gracie Gold: 114.98 (NHK)
    Mirai Nagasu: 114.93 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Samantha Cesario: 114.47 (SA)
    Polina Edmunds: 113.43
    Polina Edmunds: 113.28
    Courtney Hicks: 111.30 (SC)
    Christina Gao: 110.87 (SC)
    Mirai Nagasu: 110.50
    Samantha Cesario: 109.38
    Gracie Gold: 106.19
    Ashley Cain: 104.52
    Mariah Bell: 103.26
    Agnes Zawadzki: 102.76 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Christina Gao: 100.70 (Nepala)
    Barbie Long: 100.63
    Vanessa Lam: 95.97
    Agnes Zawadzki: 95.00
    Angela Wang: 94.46
    Angela Wang: 94.36
    Christina Gao: 94.04 (TEB)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 93.91
    Kiri Baga: 92.57
    Yasmin Siraj: 90.62
    Hannah Miller: 89.03
    Rachael Flatt: 88.59
    Mariah Bell: 84.27
    Barbie Long: 78.45
    Caroline Zhang: 65.36


    Free Skate TES
    Polina Edmunds: 62.37
    Courtney Hicks: 62.31 (Skate Canada)
    Ashley Wagner: 61.81 (TEB)
    ------------
    Courtney Hicks: 61.48 (U.S. Classic)
    Polina Edmunds: 61.82
    Samantha Cesario 59.03 (TEB)
    Ashley Wagner: 58.54
    Mirai Nagasu: 57.95
    Samantha Cesario: 56.98
    Gracie Gold: 56.09
    Samantha Cesario: 55.79 (Skate America)
    Gracie Gold: 55.58
    Christina Gao: 53.95
    Barbie Long: 53.54
    Mirai Nagasu: 53.46
    Mariah Bell: 52.95
    Ashley Cain: 51.51
    Angela Wang: 49.25
    Christina Gao: 49.09
    Gracie Gold: 49.05
    Agnes Zawadzki: 47.16 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Angela Wang: 46.59
    Yasmin Siraj: 46.39
    Vanessa Lam: 45.73
    Rachael Flatt: 45.31
    Kiri Baga: 44.85
    Agnes Zawadzki: 43.26 (Cup of China)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 42.79 (U.S. Classic)
    Hannah Miller 41.26
    Barbie Long: 40.64
    Mariah Bell: 40.44
    Christina Gao: 39.41
    Mirai Nagasu: 38.18
    Caroline Zhang: 24.27

    Free Skate PCS
    Ashley Wagner: 66.01 (SA)
    Ashley Wagner: 65.81 (TEB)
    Gracie Gold: 62.11 (SC)
    -------------
    Gracie Gold: 60.40 (NHK)
    Samantha Cesario: 58.90 (SA)
    Gracie Gold: 58.14 (U.S. Classic)
    Samantha Cesario: 57.12 (TEB)
    Mirai Nagasu 57.04 (Finlandia)
    Mirai Nagasu: 56.98 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Christina Gao: 56.92 (SC)
    Christina Gao: 56.63 (TEB)
    Courtney Hicks: 55.60 (U.S. Classic)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 55.60 (Rostelecom Cup)
    Ashley Cain: 54.01
    Christina Gao: 53.61
    Samantha Cesario: 53.59
    Mirai Nagasu: 53.52 (NHK)
    Agnes Zawadzki: 53.21 (U.S. Classic)
    Vanessa Lam:52.24
    Agnes Zawadzki: 51.65 (Cup of China)
    Polina Edmunds: 51.61
    Polina Edmunds: 50.91
    Mariah Bell: 50.31
    Courtney Hicks: 49.99 (SC)
    Angela Wang: 48.87
    Kiri Baga: 48.72
    Angela Wang: 48.11
    Barbie Long: 48.09
    Hannah Miller 47.77
    Yasmin Siraj: 44.23
    Mariah Bell: 43.83
    Rachael Flatt: 43.28
    Caroline Zhang: 41.09
    Barbie Long: 40.81

  9. #1074
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    Hopefully a confidence booster for Mirai, finishing the Grand Prix events on a positive note. She handled herself so graciously during the computer related delay at NHK. Felt so badly for her having to handle the uncertainty at that time. Had to have been tiring having one's adrenaline running at "ready to go" for such a long period of time.

  10. #1075
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    All it does is confirm the list I had earlier. Wagner, Gold, Zawadzki and Gao the main contenders with Nagasu and Hicks potential wildcards. I figured Nagasu still had it in her to do well when she wanted to, hence why I refused to count her out.

  11. #1076
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    All it does is confirm the list I had earlier. Wagner, Gold, Zawadzki and Gao the main contenders with Nagasu and Hicks potential wildcards. I figured Nagasu still had it in her to do well when she wanted to, hence why I refused to count her out.
    I don't see Agnes as a main contender at the moment. She's been terrible this season and maybe finally the US judges won't keep propping her up.

  12. #1077
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    I figured Nagasu still had it in her to do well when she wanted to, hence why I refused to count her out.
    She's great when the pressure is off but she has not shown the ability to skate well at the high stakes Nationals.

  13. #1078
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    She's great when the pressure is off but she has not shown the ability to skate well at the high stakes Nationals.
    Yes, the 2010 Nationals and Olympics seemed to be the exceptions, IMO. Once people expected more from her, that's when she went downhill.

    However, remember that at 2014 Nationals, all eyes will be on Wagner & Gold and to a lesser extent, Gao and Zawadzki. Nagasu will have the benefit of being under the radar - whether that helps her deliver solid performances or not, however, remains to be seen. It is also possible that even two clean skates from her won't be enough for 3rd...

  14. #1079
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.D. View Post
    Yes, the 2010 Nationals and Olympics seemed to be the exceptions, IMO. Once people expected more from her, that's when she went downhill.

    However, remember that at 2014 Nationals, all eyes will be on Wagner & Gold and to a lesser extent, Gao and Zawadzki. Nagasu will have the benefit of being under the radar - whether that helps her deliver solid performances or not, however, remains to be seen. It is also possible that even two clean skates from her won't be enough for 3rd...
    You could that she did not have a much pressure in 2010 either. I think people were paying a lot more attention to Sasha Cohen's comeback and Rachael Flatt got a lot of buzz for beating (flawed) Yuna Kim at Skate America. Also Mirai had done somewhat poorly in the GP so the expectations weren't as high.

    Same goes for the Olympics. The story lines were Yuna vs. Mao and Joannie competing after the death of her mother, so Mirai was under the radar there.

    I do think she can surprise.

  15. #1080
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    You could that she did not have a much pressure in 2010 either. I think people were paying a lot more attention to Sasha Cohen's comeback and Rachael Flatt got a lot of buzz for beating (flawed) Yuna Kim at Skate America. Also Mirai had done somewhat poorly in the GP so the expectations weren't as high.

    Same goes for the Olympics. The story lines were Yuna vs. Mao and Joannie competing after the death of her mother, so Mirai was under the radar there.

    I do think she can surprise.
    Yeah but when Mirai skated as the leader in FP she was the last to skate and everything was on the line so to say there was no pressure is ridiculous. Not just for the US title but a spot on the Olympic team. Not sure if she knew how Rachael and Ashley skated but she had to know she had to skate like she never had to have a chance to make the Olympic team.

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