Alissa Czisny Update!

These videos of AC's practices and the interview of her were fantastic. I am so glad she is persevering. Thanks to those who have posted them here and on youtube.

I am in agreement with some folks here that, in a sense, it "doesn't matter" who the US sends to the Olympics. That sense is, "who is likely to win a medal." But this perspective is obviously irrelevant since, as others have pointed out, none of the US skaters is all that likely to win a medal. As we all know, barring some kind of major meltdown, Yuna Kim, Mao Asada, and Carolina Kostner will win the medals (whether they deserve them or not, but isn't that what we all kind of love about figure skating?).

In this context, it seems perfectly obvious to me that Alissa Czinsy should receive and has earned US judges' favor in the forthcoming season. If she bombs, she bombs, and shouldn't be put on the team. But, if anyone *deserves* to be on the US Olympic team (besides Wagner), it's Czisny. (For the good of the future of US figure skating, Gold should probably be on the team too. Gold should still have to beat the other "newbies," like Miller and Wang.)

Really, what could be the argument for favoring anyone else? Alissa's desert claim is stronger that anyone else's, including that of Mirai, Rachael, and Caroline. There are others (Agnes, Courtney, Christina, etc.) who have greater TES potential - if judges and technical controllers were impartial, but we all know they're not. And even if they were, those skater would get such poopy PCS that it wouldn't matter.

All of this on top of the fact that Czisny is just generally more awesome than any US figure skater since Cohen, if not Kwan.

I do hope Alissa rethinks her apparent triple-triple plan for next season, for the same reasons as Blades of Passion (I think that's who first made the point). However, I believe that she and her coaches probably know better than us (Yuka and Jason are smart coaches, no doubt).

*Totally random, but I'd like to add that I consider AC that most keen figure skater fashion-wise since, well, ever. I didn't love either of the dresses she wore for the Valse Triste program, but that one was tough to costume for anyone. Nevertheless, no one has ever seen AC in a tacky sequined-illusion mesh nightmare. I think that counts for something, if not a lot.

Sorry, but Alissa is not awesome. Her SPINS are awesome, but her jumps are so iffy they provoke tension in the viewer, not awe. And she is incredibly slow compared to other top skaters. She is a great spinner, and she is very pretty, but a great skater she is not.

chuckm said:

Sorry, but Alissa is not awesome. Her SPINS are awesome, but her jumps are so iffy they provoke tension in the viewer, not awe. And she is incredibly slow compared to other top skaters. She is a great spinner, and she is very pretty, but a great skater she is not.

Click to expand...

Perhaps, but I was making a comparative claim in regards to awesomeness .

Speaking only for myself, I love skaters whose performances make me nervous and cause me to sit on the edge of my seat. I know this is not a universal trait, and I know that it explains a lot about which skaters I favor...

But more generally, chuckm, i would like to know what criteria you use to judge the quality of a figure skater, and what the justification of those criteria are.

chuckm said:

The ISU is looking to restrict the number of skaters at Worlds, not increase it. There is no way certain countries will be allowed 5 skaters while other skaters from smaller countries won't ever get to compete at Worlds again.

We've already seen how the US, Japanese and Russian skaters did at 2013 Worlds. US skaters finished 5th and 6th; Japanese skaters were 3rd, 4th and 12th; Russian skaters were 9th, 10th and 13th. I see no rationale for these countries to get two more skaters, who would likely finish lower than these placements.

You can't base ANYTHING on SB scores, because the SB score represents the BEST single performance at a GP, JPG or ISU Championship. Other performances from any of these ladies could have been way below the SB. The competition at GP and JGP events is far less stiff than at Worlds, so nerves aren't as big a problem. Both Euros and 4CC tend to have inflated scoring. The high scores at JGP and JW may be a lot lower for the junior ladies when they move up to the GP and Senior Worlds. So these SB scores are not exactly comparable. It's how the ladies do head-to-head at Worlds that shows their real competitive rank. For example, Sotnikova scored 193.99 at Euros but only 175.98 at Worlds and Tuktamysheva scored 188.85 at Euros but only 174.24 at Worlds; Kaetlyn Osmond beat Murakami and Gold at Skate Canada, but both beat her at 4CC and Worlds.

Click to expand...

I agree that the ISU will never allow 5 skaters from the big 3 countries. The question I am posing is should they. You are happy with a skater with a SB of 117 at World's, while excluding skaters who have scored 176, one of whom finished fourth in an ISU championship. I don't think thats the way to run a "world championship." Other olympic sports don't all restrict entries to three per country at their world championships. I am sure a healthy Lipnitskaia could have finished in the top ten. Gao and Nagasu would certainly have been candidates for a top ten finish. Gao beat Gold at four continents, though I doubt she could have matched Gold's better skate at World's. You can base a lot on SB scores, it is certainly one measurement of potential. How the ladies do at world's isn't the only measurement. Suzuki and Tuk had unfortunate falls at World's which were not representative of their ability nor how they skated the rest of the season.

drivingmissdaisy said:

I can't speak for the other countries, but for the last several years the US ladies have generally bombed outside those who have made the team. Frankly, the contenders who haven't made the world team have given the spot away, aside from perhaps Christina. Yes, Mirai is probably better than the skater from Latvia, but if she finishes outside the top 5 at Nationals, what is the logic in sending her? Because she had one decent competition earlier in the season?

As far as seeing the best, you are. The last US qualifier finished 6th (and Ashley and Gracie were miles better than anyone in the US), the last Japanese qualifier finished 12th, and the last Russian qualifier finished 13th. Where do you think a skater who stayed home would have factored in here?

Click to expand...

I am not sure I understand your first point. Flatt, who skated injured in 2011, could be said to have given away the spot, as did Czisny who skated injured in 2012. How is that the fault of contenders such as Gao, Nagasu and Zawadski who didn't make the team? Nagasu beat both world team members at 4CC in 2011, and Gao beat world team member Gold this year at 4CC. Is that what you call bombing?

This year, 8th at world's was a 176 score, 11th a 165. I would expect Gao and Nagasu to have finished between 8th and 11th. You apparently don't believe skaters who would have likely finished 8-11th belong in a world champioship. We differ. How about 2011, when Nagasu had a 189 score at 4CC, which was the third highest international score going into World's, yet she didn't qualify with the third best score of the year and a bronze medal at an ISU championship only a month before world's. Did we see the best then? No, we did not.

b-man said:

I am not sure I understand your first point. Flatt, who skated injured in 2011, could be said to have given away the spot, as did Czisny who skated injured in 2012. How is that the fault of contenders such as Gao, Nagasu and Zawadski who didn't make the team? Nagasu beat both world team members at 4CC in 2011, and Gao beat world team member Gold this year at 4CC. Is that what you call bombing?

This year, 8th at world's was a 176 score, 11th a 165. I would expect Gao and Nagasu to have finished between 8th and 11th. You apparently don't believe skaters who would have likely finished 8-11th belong in a world champioship. We differ. How about 2011, when Nagasu had a 189 score at 4CC, which was the third highest international score going into World's, yet she didn't qualify with the third best score of the year and a bronze medal at an ISU championship only a month before world's. Did we see the best then? No, we did not.

Click to expand...

drivingmissdaisy is referring, I believe, to the necessity of skating strong at Nationals before being assigned to the world team. And I think that, had the US women had three spots instead of two this year, Zawadzki or Gao would have gone to Worlds. As it was, they did end up getting some valuable international experience at 4CC, where Christina performed very respectably. But if you can't place in the top five in your own country, as Mirai didn't this year or last year, then the federation can't be blamed for assuming that it would be risky to send you to Worlds.

I have to disagree that either Zawadzki OR Gao would have placed 8th-11th with the field that we saw at this year's Worlds. More likely than not, both of them would have been in the bottom of the top ten after the SP, and then would have been pushed further down due to their oft-flawed LPs. Neither of the two have experienced any substantial pressure from the media or the USFSA--we still don't know how they'll fare when they find themselves Olympic contenders next season. For example: Gracie Gold, until then a mostly obscure junior skater, suddenly had the spotlight thrown on her last year. And we all saw how she responded at Skate Canada.

b-man said:

I am not sure I understand your first point. Flatt, who skated injured in 2011, could be said to have given away the spot, as did Czisny who skated injured in 2012. How is that the fault of contenders such as Gao, Nagasu and Zawadski who didn't make the team? Nagasu beat both world team members at 4CC in 2011, and Gao beat world team member Gold this year at 4CC. Is that what you call bombing?

This year, 8th at world's was a 176 score, 11th a 165. I would expect Gao and Nagasu to have finished between 8th and 11th. You apparently don't believe skaters who would have likely finished 8-11th belong in a world champioship. We differ. How about 2011, when Nagasu had a 189 score at 4CC, which was the third highest international score going into World's, yet she didn't qualify with the third best score of the year and a bronze medal at an ISU championship only a month before world's. Did we see the best then? No, we did not.

Click to expand...

Nagasu didn't skate well at Nationals 2011, and it is NATIONALS which is the trial for Worlds, not 4CC. Nagasu is a mercurial skater who can skate great at one event and bomb the next---that's been her pattern over the years since 2010. She skated great at the 2010 Olympics, and not so great at Worlds 2010. This season, she was 4th at CoC, nearly 18 points behind winner Asada, and 3rd at NHK, still nearly 9 points behind Asada. She went on to finish 7th at Nationals again.

Anyway, Nagasu's SB score was beaten by all the ladies who finished top 8 at Worlds. So if Nagasu had gone to Worlds instead of Gold and achieved her SB score, she would have been 9th and the US would have only 2 ladies in Sochi.

b-man said:

You apparently don't believe skaters who would have likely finished 8-11th belong in a world champioship.

Click to expand...

Sure I do. I just don't think someone who would finish that low is entitled to a spot, particularly when the argument is that we aren't seeing the world's best, and that the country is already sending two or three better skaters. I know that track and field and gymnastics limit the number of competitors by country who can compete in world championships, so figure skating is not unique in this regard either.

Maybe, drivingmissdaisy, when you become a billionaire you can endow ISU with the $ to fund such an enormous field of skaters, so that the top 5 countries at Worlds in each discipline can send 5 skaters/teams each, plus at least one from all the other countries.

Pepe Nero said:

Speaking only for myself, I love skaters whose performances make me nervous and cause me to sit on the edge of my seat. I know this is not a universal trait, and I know that it explains a lot about which skaters I favor...

But more generally, chuckm, i would like to know what criteria you use to judge the quality of a figure skater, and what the justification of those criteria are.

Click to expand...

My criteria certainly does not include being on tenterhooks because my favorite skater is known for falls and/or URd jumps.

A great skater has these qualities:
- Consistent jumping ability (Alissa -1)
- Great spins and footwork (Alissa +3)
- Speed (Alissa -2)
- Ability to skate to different kinds of music (Alissa -1)
- Expressiveness (Alissa +1)
- Audience connection (Alissa 0)

Michelle Kwan had all these attributes in the +1 to +3 range

ForeverFish said:

drivingmissdaisy is referring, I believe, to the necessity of skating strong at Nationals before being assigned to the world team. And I think that, had the US women had three spots instead of two this year, Zawadzki or Gao would have gone to Worlds. As it was, they did end up getting some valuable international experience at 4CC, where Christina performed very respectably. But if you can't place in the top five in your own country, as Mirai didn't this year or last year, then the federation can't be blamed for assuming that it would be risky to send you to Worlds.

I have to disagree that either Zawadzki OR Gao would have placed 8th-11th with the field that we saw at this year's Worlds. More likely than not, both of them would have been in the bottom of the top ten after the SP, and then would have been pushed further down due to their oft-flawed LPs. Neither of the two have experienced any substantial pressure from the media or the USFSA--we still don't know how they'll fare when they find themselves Olympic contenders next season. For example: Gracie Gold, until then a mostly obscure junior skater, suddenly had the spotlight thrown on her last year. And we all saw how she responded at Skate Canada.

Click to expand...

Thanks for clearing up drivingmissdaisy's point. Yes, surely Wagner and Gold were the top qualifiers, and were the right choices for a world's team limited to two.

One only needed a score of 165 to equal Meite in 11th. Both Gao and Nagasu exceed that regularly in international competition. Zawadski regularly exceeds that nationally, but hardly ever internationally. All three have plenty of experience in GP's and at four continents. There is plenty of pressure at Nationals. Ask Wagner, she felt plenty of pressure at Omaha, and she said as much in her interviews, as did Gold.

chuckm said:

Nagasu didn't skate well at Nationals 2011, and it is NATIONALS which is the trial for Worlds, not 4CC. Nagasu is a mercurial skater who can skate great at one event and bomb the next---that's been her pattern over the years since 2010. She skated great at the 2010 Olympics, and not so great at Worlds 2010. This season, she was 4th at CoC, nearly 18 points behind winner Asada, and 3rd at NHK, still nearly 9 points behind Asada. She went on to finish 7th at Nationals again.

Anyway, Nagasu's SB score was beaten by all the ladies who finished top 8 at Worlds. So if Nagasu had gone to Worlds instead of Gold and achieved her SB score, she would have been 9th and the US would have only 2 ladies in Sochi.

Click to expand...

On the contrary, Nagasu skated OK at nationals in 2011, unless you consider a bronze not skating well. She won the short over eventual champ Czisny and everyone else. In the long, she had two mistakes, as did Flatt. The judges gave the nod to Flatt for the silver. I don't have the feeling Nagasu was robbed, it was close, although I preferred mirai's skating to that of Flatt on that night and overall, as do many on this board.

I never said Nagasu should have been on the world's team this year, but, as you have calculated, she or Gao could have finished in the top ten had they they been present and had skated well.

To me, it's straightforward. If Alissa stands up on her jumps, she will medal at Nationals and make the Olympic team. Alas, I think the odds are against her accomplishing this.

b-man said:

Thanks for clearing up drivingmissdaisy's point. Yes, surely Wagner and Gold were the top qualifiers, and were the right choices for a world's team limited to two.

One only needed a score of 165 to equal Meite in 11th. Both Gao and Nagasu exceed that regularly in international competition. Zawadski regularly exceeds that nationally, but hardly ever internationally. All three have plenty of experience in GP's and at four continents. There is plenty of pressure at Nationals. Ask Wagner, she felt plenty of pressure at Omaha, and she said as much in her interviews, as did Gold.

Click to expand...

That's my point about Zawadzki, though--her international PB is 166, and she achieved her to-date FS PB at 2011 Junior Worlds. It would have been a VERY tight squeeze for her to place ahead of Meite at this year's Worlds, especially when Zawadzki struggles to skate a FS without falls. And, despite her experience on the GP, she's only managed to win one medal, which suggests that international judges want to see more from her. Personally, I wouldn't call two mediocre trips to Four Continents "plenty of experience," especially since she seems to have a difficult time delivering there.

Gao's PB would have placed her ninth at Worlds, just behind Osmond (who fell twice in the FS). It's worrying if a mostly-clean Gao, as she was when she achieved that score at 4CC, can't place ahead of a seriously flawed debut senior. It could be argued, reasonably, that Gao has the chops to have placed ahead of the Russian girls. But if you compare Gao's best performance to date (2013 4CC) to one of Sotnikova's worst (2012 CoR), you'll see that the PCS separating the two is much too small for comfort--a little more than two points. Gao would have needed to come close to her PB just to beat Tuktamysheva, who completely tanked in the SP and only landed in the top ten when Suzuki faltered--and we still don't know how Gao would perform under the pressure that's been placed on Wagner and Gold. A decent Gao's best bet at Worlds, I think, would have been landing in the nine-point margin separating tenth from eleventh.

As for Nagasu, on a good day, she can out-skate anyone but Wagner. Unfortunately, with the UR issues she's been having, the international technical callers no longer seem to feel that way. If she can't land more than two or three ratified triple jumps in the FS, then nothing short of a miracle will put her in the top ten.

Mathman said:

Click to expand...

((Math)), don't cry. I am right here on your side, all cheering for Alissa. :yes: Goooo Alissa!!! :yay:

Mathman said:

To me, it's straightforward. If Alissa stands up on her jumps, she will medal at Nationals and make the Olympic team. Alas, I think the odds are against her accomplishing this.

Click to expand...

This is exactly how I feel. However, she has pulled out strong performances seemingly out of nowhere in the past so it could happen.

Mathman said:

To me, it's straightforward. If Alissa stands up on her jumps, she will medal at Nationals and make the Olympic team. Alas, I think the odds are against her accomplishing this.

Click to expand...

Agreed depending on the jumps - doubles stood up won't do it. If she skates cleanly she will be on the team no matter what with three spots. Her spins and flow and grance will earn her the spot - the odds of Gold, Wagner and Nagasu all skating clean are very slim - mind you better than Alissa probably skating clean lol.

ForeverFish said:

That's my point about Zawadzki, though--her international PB is 166, and she achieved her to-date FS PB at 2011 Junior Worlds. It would have been a VERY tight squeeze for her to place ahead of Meite at this year's Worlds, especially when Zawadzki struggles to skate a FS without falls. And, despite her experience on the GP, she's only managed to win one medal, which suggests that international judges want to see more from her. Personally, I wouldn't call two mediocre trips to Four Continents "plenty of experience," especially since she seems to have a difficult time delivering there.

Gao's PB would have placed her ninth at Worlds, just behind Osmond (who fell twice in the FS). It's worrying if a mostly-clean Gao, as she was when she achieved that score at 4CC, can't place ahead of a seriously flawed debut senior. It could be argued, reasonably, that Gao has the chops to have placed ahead of the Russian girls. But if you compare Gao's best performance to date (2013 4CC) to one of Sotnikova's worst (2012 CoR), you'll see that the PCS separating the two is much too small for comfort--a little more than two points. Gao would have needed to come close to her PB just to beat Tuktamysheva, who completely tanked in the SP and only landed in the top ten when Suzuki faltered--and we still don't know how Gao would perform under the pressure that's been placed on Wagner and Gold. A decent Gao's best bet at Worlds, I think, would have been landing in the nine-point margin separating tenth from eleventh.

As for Nagasu, on a good day, she can out-skate anyone but Wagner. Unfortunately, with the UR issues she's been having, the international technical callers no longer seem to feel that way. If she can't land more than two or three ratified triple jumps in the FS, then nothing short of a miracle will put her in the top ten.

Click to expand...

Generally agree with you assessment of Agnes and Gao. Mirai, at NHK with internatinal judges, still placed 3rd with a 176 score despite 3 UR's in the FS. That score would still have placed her in the top 10 in London World's.

Pepe Nero said:

Speaking only for myself, I love skaters whose performances make me nervous and cause me to sit on the edge of my seat. I know this is not a universal trait, and I know that it explains a lot about which skaters I favor...

Click to expand...

That's true, ha! I'd rather watch a skater whose skating has the potential to move me even if my knuckles are turning white in the process than a skater who might hit everything but will be forgettable. It's just one of those sports - who cares if a skater wins a gold medal if the performance is blah?

Then again, I know some people are just never moved by Alissa because her style is too soft for them. Fair enough. I'm not one of them. Good luck Alissa!

b-man said:

Generally agree with you assessment of Agnes and Gao. Mirai, at NHK with internatinal judges, still placed 3rd with a 176 score despite 3 UR's in the FS. That score would still have placed her in the top 10 in London World's.

Click to expand...

Mirai gave a similar performance at CoC (1 UR in the SP, 3 in the FS) and ended up in fourth with 163.46, behind Mao, Kiira, and little Julia L. That's too much of a discrepancy for the US federation's comfort, as that score at Worlds would have put her behind Suzuki, in 13th. Meaning no disrespect of any sort, but I think Mirai had an easier time at NHK due to her popularity with the audience.