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Thread: Alissa Czisny Update!

  1. #31
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    Technically, since Alissa was 5th at 2011 Worlds, USFS could submit her as a "comeback skater" (she was out for the 2012-2013 season), which would entitle her to two GP events. Considering that Alissa wanted to be submitted for NHK 2012 after her surgery in June 2012, my guess is Alissa will want to do the GP this season. The question is her readiness for competition as early as mid-October. If she competes at SA and finishes mid-pack, that could damage her in the eyes of ISU judges, as well as USFS. She would have to medal in her second event to redeem herself with ISU and USFS.

    Alissa would not have to establish a minimum score as a returning skater, but if it turns out she doesn't do the GP, USFS could send her to a couple of B events just to get her programs in front of ISU judges.

    We will find out about the GP quite soon---on or about June 1.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Technically, since Alissa was 5th at 2011 Worlds, USFS could submit her as a "comeback skater" (she was out for the 2012-2013 season), which would entitle her to two GP events. Considering that Alissa wanted to be submitted for NHK 2012 after her surgery in June 2012, my guess is Alissa will want to do the GP this season. The question is her readiness for competition as early as mid-October. If she competes at SA and finishes mid-pack, that could damage her in the eyes of ISU judges, as well as USFS. She would have to medal in her second event to redeem herself with ISU and USFS.

    Alissa would not have to establish a minimum score as a returning skater, but if it turns out she doesn't do the GP, USFS could send her to a couple of B events just to get her programs in front of ISU judges.

    We will find out about the GP quite soon---on or about June 1.
    It all depends on who competes at SA. If Ashley and Yuna/Caro/Mao are there, the absolute best Alissa can hope for is a bronze. If you add Christina Gao or Agnes Zawadzki to the mix, they also could realistically challenge for medals, but between a clean Christina/Agnes and a semi-clean Alissa, there's no question (for me) who wins. Alissa has the rep, the elegance, and the crowd's support for being the "comeback kid." Christina/Agnes, as of now, still lack that wow-factor.

    As was mentioned earlier, Alissa at partial strength still has the chops to beat every US lady, excepting Ashley and Gracie. The Russian darlings, Zijun, or Kiira could also pose potential threats to a Czisny comeback, but on Alissa's home ice, they don't have much of a chance of knocking her off the podium.

    ETA: Actually, a clean Julia Lipnitskaia would have a decent shot at challenging Alissa, who's unlikely to be clean at her first big international comp in 18 months. The girl has nerves of steel and the confidence to boot.

    Excited for GP assignment news!

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    This. With A LOT of help, maybe 3 to 5 skaters (depending how you count) could sneak in for bronze if one of the top 3 (Most likely Mao) crashes burns and dies on the ice AND one of those 3 to 5 skaters is perfect (so unlikely I am having a hard time keeping a straight fact thinking about it). The only one of those 3-5 in my head that has a good shot of being clean is Wagner, and by good shot I mean perhaps 50-60%. And Wagner would I think need even more help than some of the others from one of the top 3 because her technical content is lacking.
    ita

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Relax. The comment someone made was that the US should have more than 3 spots, and I responded that 3 is plenty because we don't even have that many with a shot of medaling. So you're saying we should be able to send 10? Why do you think that?
    Yes, I think the US, Russia and Japan should all have more than three spots for world's, not for the Olympics which has its own rules. As I said, the US has seven in the SB top 25, Russia has six, and I think Japan has four. The competition is supposed to be the world championships, not the world participation pageant. The US occasionally even has people in the SB top 10 who don't qualify for worlds, which makes me question in some years whether we are really watching a world championships when that many top skaters don't qualify. I would like to see the country limit increased up to 5, so we could possibly see a world's with Wagner, Gold, Gao, Nagasu, Zawadski vs. Adelina, Liza, Julia, Leonova, and in another year Radionova, vs Asada, Murakami, Suzuki, Ando and Imai. World's in London this year was great, but with a few extra entries, it could have been even better.

  5. #35
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    Some more recent Alissa videos by the Skating Lesson if you're interested:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtdTYf9QHGQ
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rWE0CaCbAU

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by b-man View Post
    Yes, I think the US, Russia and Japan should all have more than three spots for world's, not for the Olympics which has its own rules. As I said, the US has seven in the SB top 25, Russia has six, and I think Japan has four. The competition is supposed to be the world championships, not the world participation pageant. The US occasionally even has people in the SB top 10 who don't qualify for worlds, which makes me question in some years whether we are really watching a world championships when that many top skaters don't qualify. I would like to see the country limit increased up to 5, so we could possibly see a world's with Wagner, Gold, Gao, Nagasu, Zawadski vs. Adelina, Liza, Julia, Leonova, and in another year Radionova, vs Asada, Murakami, Suzuki, Ando and Imai. World's in London this year was great, but with a few extra entries, it could have been even better.
    If you had more than 3 skaters from the top countries, the field of skaters would end up being 40-50 skaters. And it wouldn't be a "world" championship if you started excluding skaters from lower ranked countries (who need minimum scores to compete anyways), in favour of 5 Japanese skaters or 5 Americans. Obviously the 5th or 6th ranked ladies skater in Japan will have a higher season's best than someone from Latvia or Lithuania, but if you go by season's bests you would be severely disadvantaging lower ranked countries.

    And frankly how is it a world championships if it ends up being Team USA vs. Russia vs. Japan?

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    If you had more than 3 skaters from the top countries, the field of skaters would end up being 40-50 skaters. And it wouldn't be a "world" championship if you started excluding skaters from lower ranked countries (who need minimum scores to compete anyways), in favour of 5 Japanese skaters or 5 Americans. Obviously the 5th or 6th ranked ladies skater in Japan will have a higher season's best than someone from Latvia or Lithuania, but if you go by season's bests you would be severely disadvantaging lower ranked countries.

    And frankly how is it a world championships if it ends up being Team USA vs. Russia vs. Japan?
    This year world's had 35 in the short program, adding 3 extra for US and 2 for Russia and Japan would bring it up to 42. I said nothing about excluding skaters from the rest of the world, as I would not favor that. I don't think this would result in a USA vs Russia VS Japan competition. Kim, Kostner, Li, Osmond, Meite, Korpi, Helgesson, Marchei and others provide plenty of competition that are not in the big 3 countries. Fifteen out of 42 would not be a competition exclusive to the big three countries, and in some years the big 3 will not have 5 age eligible skaters in the SB top 25, and should not have 5 entries under those circustances. As an example, this year we had an entry at World's named Clescic, 94th on the SB list with a 117 score. Before someone puts words in my mouth, no I am not in favor of excluding Clescic. But a world's that has room for Clescic should have room for skaters such as Nagasu and Gao who are 15th and 16th on the SB list with 176 scores. Next year, Russia will be facing the same travesty the US has been facing for years, as one of Adelina, Liza, or Julia, 5th, 8th and 12th on the SB list, will sit home. That is not the kind of World's I want, I want to see the best.

  8. #38
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    The ISU is looking to restrict the number of skaters at Worlds, not increase it. There is no way certain countries will be allowed 5 skaters while other skaters from smaller countries won't ever get to compete at Worlds again.

    We've already seen how the US, Japanese and Russian skaters did at 2013 Worlds. US skaters finished 5th and 6th; Japanese skaters were 3rd, 4th and 12th; Russian skaters were 9th, 10th and 13th. I see no rationale for these countries to get two more skaters, who would likely finish lower than these placements.

    You can't base ANYTHING on SB scores, because the SB score represents the BEST single performance at a GP, JPG or ISU Championship. Other performances from any of these ladies could have been way below the SB. The competition at GP and JGP events is far less stiff than at Worlds, so nerves aren't as big a problem. Both Euros and 4CC tend to have inflated scoring. The high scores at JGP and JW may be a lot lower for the junior ladies when they move up to the GP and Senior Worlds. So these SB scores are not exactly comparable. It's how the ladies do head-to-head at Worlds that shows their real competitive rank. For example, Sotnikova scored 193.99 at Euros but only 175.98 at Worlds and Tuktamysheva scored 188.85 at Euros but only 174.24 at Worlds; Kaetlyn Osmond beat Murakami and Gold at Skate Canada, but both beat her at 4CC and Worlds.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ffionhanathomas View Post
    Some more recent Alissa videos by the Skating Lesson if you're interested:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtdTYf9QHGQ
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rWE0CaCbAU
    Thank you ffiomhanathomas. Go Alissa!

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by b-man View Post
    This year world's had 35 in the short program, adding 3 extra for US and 2 for Russia and Japan would bring it up to 42. I said nothing about excluding skaters from the rest of the world, as I would not favor that. I don't think this would result in a USA vs Russia VS Japan competition. Kim, Kostner, Li, Osmond, Meite, Korpi, Helgesson, Marchei and others provide plenty of competition that are not in the big 3 countries. Fifteen out of 42 would not be a competition exclusive to the big three countries, and in some years the big 3 will not have 5 age eligible skaters in the SB top 25, and should not have 5 entries under those circustances. As an example, this year we had an entry at World's named Clescic, 94th on the SB list with a 117 score. Before someone puts words in my mouth, no I am not in favor of excluding Clescic. But a world's that has room for Clescic should have room for skaters such as Nagasu and Gao who are 15th and 16th on the SB list with 176 scores. Next year, Russia will be facing the same travesty the US has been facing for years, as one of Adelina, Liza, or Julia, 5th, 8th and 12th on the SB list, will sit home. That is not the kind of World's I want, I want to see the best.
    I can't speak for the other countries, but for the last several years the US ladies have generally bombed outside those who have made the team. Frankly, the contenders who haven't made the world team have given the spot away, aside from perhaps Christina. Yes, Mirai is probably better than the skater from Latvia, but if she finishes outside the top 5 at Nationals, what is the logic in sending her? Because she had one decent competition earlier in the season?

    As far as seeing the best, you are. The last US qualifier finished 6th (and Ashley and Gracie were miles better than anyone in the US), the last Japanese qualifier finished 12th, and the last Russian qualifier finished 13th. Where do you think a skater who stayed home would have factored in here?

  11. #41
    I got your program components right here. Pepe Nero's Avatar
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    These videos of AC's practices and the interview of her were fantastic. I am so glad she is persevering. Thanks to those who have posted them here and on youtube.

    I am in agreement with some folks here that, in a sense, it "doesn't matter" who the US sends to the Olympics. That sense is, "who is likely to win a medal." But this perspective is obviously irrelevant since, as others have pointed out, none of the US skaters is all that likely to win a medal. As we all know, barring some kind of major meltdown, Yuna Kim, Mao Asada, and Carolina Kostner will win the medals (whether they deserve them or not, but isn't that what we all kind of love about figure skating?).

    In this context, it seems perfectly obvious to me that Alissa Czinsy should receive and has earned US judges' favor in the forthcoming season. If she bombs, she bombs, and shouldn't be put on the team. But, if anyone *deserves* to be on the US Olympic team (besides Wagner), it's Czisny. (For the good of the future of US figure skating, Gold should probably be on the team too. Gold should still have to beat the other "newbies," like Miller and Wang.)

    Really, what could be the argument for favoring anyone else? Alissa's desert claim is stronger that anyone else's, including that of Mirai, Rachael, and Caroline. There are others (Agnes, Courtney, Christina, etc.) who have greater TES potential - if judges and technical controllers were impartial, but we all know they're not. And even if they were, those skater would get such poopy PCS that it wouldn't matter.

    All of this on top of the fact that Czisny is just generally more awesome than any US figure skater since Cohen, if not Kwan.

    I do hope Alissa rethinks her apparent triple-triple plan for next season, for the same reasons as Blades of Passion (I think that's who first made the point). However, I believe that she and her coaches probably know better than us (Yuka and Jason are smart coaches, no doubt).

    *Totally random, but I'd like to add that I consider AC that most keen figure skater fashion-wise since, well, ever. I didn't love either of the dresses she wore for the Valse Triste program, but that one was tough to costume for anyone. Nevertheless, no one has ever seen AC in a tacky sequined-illusion mesh nightmare. I think that counts for something, if not a lot. :P

  12. #42
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    Sorry, but Alissa is not awesome. Her SPINS are awesome, but her jumps are so iffy they provoke tension in the viewer, not awe. And she is incredibly slow compared to other top skaters. She is a great spinner, and she is very pretty, but a great skater she is not.

  13. #43
    I got your program components right here. Pepe Nero's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Sorry, but Alissa is not awesome. Her SPINS are awesome, but her jumps are so iffy they provoke tension in the viewer, not awe. And she is incredibly slow compared to other top skaters. She is a great spinner, and she is very pretty, but a great skater she is not.
    Perhaps, but I was making a comparative claim in regards to awesomeness .

    Speaking only for myself, I love skaters whose performances make me nervous and cause me to sit on the edge of my seat. I know this is not a universal trait, and I know that it explains a lot about which skaters I favor...

    But more generally, chuckm, i would like to know what criteria you use to judge the quality of a figure skater, and what the justification of those criteria are.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    The ISU is looking to restrict the number of skaters at Worlds, not increase it. There is no way certain countries will be allowed 5 skaters while other skaters from smaller countries won't ever get to compete at Worlds again.

    We've already seen how the US, Japanese and Russian skaters did at 2013 Worlds. US skaters finished 5th and 6th; Japanese skaters were 3rd, 4th and 12th; Russian skaters were 9th, 10th and 13th. I see no rationale for these countries to get two more skaters, who would likely finish lower than these placements.

    You can't base ANYTHING on SB scores, because the SB score represents the BEST single performance at a GP, JPG or ISU Championship. Other performances from any of these ladies could have been way below the SB. The competition at GP and JGP events is far less stiff than at Worlds, so nerves aren't as big a problem. Both Euros and 4CC tend to have inflated scoring. The high scores at JGP and JW may be a lot lower for the junior ladies when they move up to the GP and Senior Worlds. So these SB scores are not exactly comparable. It's how the ladies do head-to-head at Worlds that shows their real competitive rank. For example, Sotnikova scored 193.99 at Euros but only 175.98 at Worlds and Tuktamysheva scored 188.85 at Euros but only 174.24 at Worlds; Kaetlyn Osmond beat Murakami and Gold at Skate Canada, but both beat her at 4CC and Worlds.
    I agree that the ISU will never allow 5 skaters from the big 3 countries. The question I am posing is should they. You are happy with a skater with a SB of 117 at World's, while excluding skaters who have scored 176, one of whom finished fourth in an ISU championship. I don't think thats the way to run a "world championship." Other olympic sports don't all restrict entries to three per country at their world championships. I am sure a healthy Lipnitskaia could have finished in the top ten. Gao and Nagasu would certainly have been candidates for a top ten finish. Gao beat Gold at four continents, though I doubt she could have matched Gold's better skate at World's. You can base a lot on SB scores, it is certainly one measurement of potential. How the ladies do at world's isn't the only measurement. Suzuki and Tuk had unfortunate falls at World's which were not representative of their ability nor how they skated the rest of the season.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I can't speak for the other countries, but for the last several years the US ladies have generally bombed outside those who have made the team. Frankly, the contenders who haven't made the world team have given the spot away, aside from perhaps Christina. Yes, Mirai is probably better than the skater from Latvia, but if she finishes outside the top 5 at Nationals, what is the logic in sending her? Because she had one decent competition earlier in the season?

    As far as seeing the best, you are. The last US qualifier finished 6th (and Ashley and Gracie were miles better than anyone in the US), the last Japanese qualifier finished 12th, and the last Russian qualifier finished 13th. Where do you think a skater who stayed home would have factored in here?
    I am not sure I understand your first point. Flatt, who skated injured in 2011, could be said to have given away the spot, as did Czisny who skated injured in 2012. How is that the fault of contenders such as Gao, Nagasu and Zawadski who didn't make the team? Nagasu beat both world team members at 4CC in 2011, and Gao beat world team member Gold this year at 4CC. Is that what you call bombing?

    This year, 8th at world's was a 176 score, 11th a 165. I would expect Gao and Nagasu to have finished between 8th and 11th. You apparently don't believe skaters who would have likely finished 8-11th belong in a world champioship. We differ. How about 2011, when Nagasu had a 189 score at 4CC, which was the third highest international score going into World's, yet she didn't qualify with the third best score of the year and a bronze medal at an ISU championship only a month before world's. Did we see the best then? No, we did not.

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