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Thread: Alissa Czisny Update!

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by b-man View Post
    I am not sure I understand your first point. Flatt, who skated injured in 2011, could be said to have given away the spot, as did Czisny who skated injured in 2012. How is that the fault of contenders such as Gao, Nagasu and Zawadski who didn't make the team? Nagasu beat both world team members at 4CC in 2011, and Gao beat world team member Gold this year at 4CC. Is that what you call bombing?

    This year, 8th at world's was a 176 score, 11th a 165. I would expect Gao and Nagasu to have finished between 8th and 11th. You apparently don't believe skaters who would have likely finished 8-11th belong in a world champioship. We differ. How about 2011, when Nagasu had a 189 score at 4CC, which was the third highest international score going into World's, yet she didn't qualify with the third best score of the year and a bronze medal at an ISU championship only a month before world's. Did we see the best then? No, we did not.
    drivingmissdaisy is referring, I believe, to the necessity of skating strong at Nationals before being assigned to the world team. And I think that, had the US women had three spots instead of two this year, Zawadzki or Gao would have gone to Worlds. As it was, they did end up getting some valuable international experience at 4CC, where Christina performed very respectably. But if you can't place in the top five in your own country, as Mirai didn't this year or last year, then the federation can't be blamed for assuming that it would be risky to send you to Worlds.

    I have to disagree that either Zawadzki OR Gao would have placed 8th-11th with the field that we saw at this year's Worlds. More likely than not, both of them would have been in the bottom of the top ten after the SP, and then would have been pushed further down due to their oft-flawed LPs. Neither of the two have experienced any substantial pressure from the media or the USFSA--we still don't know how they'll fare when they find themselves Olympic contenders next season. For example: Gracie Gold, until then a mostly obscure junior skater, suddenly had the spotlight thrown on her last year. And we all saw how she responded at Skate Canada.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by b-man View Post
    I am not sure I understand your first point. Flatt, who skated injured in 2011, could be said to have given away the spot, as did Czisny who skated injured in 2012. How is that the fault of contenders such as Gao, Nagasu and Zawadski who didn't make the team? Nagasu beat both world team members at 4CC in 2011, and Gao beat world team member Gold this year at 4CC. Is that what you call bombing?

    This year, 8th at world's was a 176 score, 11th a 165. I would expect Gao and Nagasu to have finished between 8th and 11th. You apparently don't believe skaters who would have likely finished 8-11th belong in a world champioship. We differ. How about 2011, when Nagasu had a 189 score at 4CC, which was the third highest international score going into World's, yet she didn't qualify with the third best score of the year and a bronze medal at an ISU championship only a month before world's. Did we see the best then? No, we did not.
    Nagasu didn't skate well at Nationals 2011, and it is NATIONALS which is the trial for Worlds, not 4CC. Nagasu is a mercurial skater who can skate great at one event and bomb the next---that's been her pattern over the years since 2010. She skated great at the 2010 Olympics, and not so great at Worlds 2010. This season, she was 4th at CoC, nearly 18 points behind winner Asada, and 3rd at NHK, still nearly 9 points behind Asada. She went on to finish 7th at Nationals again.

    Anyway, Nagasu's SB score was beaten by all the ladies who finished top 8 at Worlds. So if Nagasu had gone to Worlds instead of Gold and achieved her SB score, she would have been 9th and the US would have only 2 ladies in Sochi.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by b-man View Post
    You apparently don't believe skaters who would have likely finished 8-11th belong in a world champioship.
    Sure I do. I just don't think someone who would finish that low is entitled to a spot, particularly when the argument is that we aren't seeing the world's best, and that the country is already sending two or three better skaters. I know that track and field and gymnastics limit the number of competitors by country who can compete in world championships, so figure skating is not unique in this regard either.

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    Maybe, drivingmissdaisy, when you become a billionaire you can endow ISU with the $ to fund such an enormous field of skaters, so that the top 5 countries at Worlds in each discipline can send 5 skaters/teams each, plus at least one from all the other countries.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe Nero View Post

    Speaking only for myself, I love skaters whose performances make me nervous and cause me to sit on the edge of my seat. I know this is not a universal trait, and I know that it explains a lot about which skaters I favor...

    But more generally, chuckm, i would like to know what criteria you use to judge the quality of a figure skater, and what the justification of those criteria are.
    My criteria certainly does not include being on tenterhooks because my favorite skater is known for falls and/or URd jumps.

    A great skater has these qualities:
    - Consistent jumping ability (Alissa -1)
    - Great spins and footwork (Alissa +3)
    - Speed (Alissa -2)
    - Ability to skate to different kinds of music (Alissa -1)
    - Expressiveness (Alissa +1)
    - Audience connection (Alissa 0)

    Michelle Kwan had all these attributes in the +1 to +3 range

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    drivingmissdaisy is referring, I believe, to the necessity of skating strong at Nationals before being assigned to the world team. And I think that, had the US women had three spots instead of two this year, Zawadzki or Gao would have gone to Worlds. As it was, they did end up getting some valuable international experience at 4CC, where Christina performed very respectably. But if you can't place in the top five in your own country, as Mirai didn't this year or last year, then the federation can't be blamed for assuming that it would be risky to send you to Worlds.

    I have to disagree that either Zawadzki OR Gao would have placed 8th-11th with the field that we saw at this year's Worlds. More likely than not, both of them would have been in the bottom of the top ten after the SP, and then would have been pushed further down due to their oft-flawed LPs. Neither of the two have experienced any substantial pressure from the media or the USFSA--we still don't know how they'll fare when they find themselves Olympic contenders next season. For example: Gracie Gold, until then a mostly obscure junior skater, suddenly had the spotlight thrown on her last year. And we all saw how she responded at Skate Canada.
    Thanks for clearing up drivingmissdaisy's point. Yes, surely Wagner and Gold were the top qualifiers, and were the right choices for a world's team limited to two.

    One only needed a score of 165 to equal Meite in 11th. Both Gao and Nagasu exceed that regularly in international competition. Zawadski regularly exceeds that nationally, but hardly ever internationally. All three have plenty of experience in GP's and at four continents. There is plenty of pressure at Nationals. Ask Wagner, she felt plenty of pressure at Omaha, and she said as much in her interviews, as did Gold.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Nagasu didn't skate well at Nationals 2011, and it is NATIONALS which is the trial for Worlds, not 4CC. Nagasu is a mercurial skater who can skate great at one event and bomb the next---that's been her pattern over the years since 2010. She skated great at the 2010 Olympics, and not so great at Worlds 2010. This season, she was 4th at CoC, nearly 18 points behind winner Asada, and 3rd at NHK, still nearly 9 points behind Asada. She went on to finish 7th at Nationals again.

    Anyway, Nagasu's SB score was beaten by all the ladies who finished top 8 at Worlds. So if Nagasu had gone to Worlds instead of Gold and achieved her SB score, she would have been 9th and the US would have only 2 ladies in Sochi.
    On the contrary, Nagasu skated OK at nationals in 2011, unless you consider a bronze not skating well. She won the short over eventual champ Czisny and everyone else. In the long, she had two mistakes, as did Flatt. The judges gave the nod to Flatt for the silver. I don't have the feeling Nagasu was robbed, it was close, although I preferred mirai's skating to that of Flatt on that night and overall, as do many on this board.

    I never said Nagasu should have been on the world's team this year, but, as you have calculated, she or Gao could have finished in the top ten had they they been present and had skated well.

  8. #53
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    To me, it's straightforward. If Alissa stands up on her jumps, she will medal at Nationals and make the Olympic team. Alas, I think the odds are against her accomplishing this.

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by b-man View Post
    Thanks for clearing up drivingmissdaisy's point. Yes, surely Wagner and Gold were the top qualifiers, and were the right choices for a world's team limited to two.

    One only needed a score of 165 to equal Meite in 11th. Both Gao and Nagasu exceed that regularly in international competition. Zawadski regularly exceeds that nationally, but hardly ever internationally. All three have plenty of experience in GP's and at four continents. There is plenty of pressure at Nationals. Ask Wagner, she felt plenty of pressure at Omaha, and she said as much in her interviews, as did Gold.
    That's my point about Zawadzki, though--her international PB is 166, and she achieved her to-date FS PB at 2011 Junior Worlds. It would have been a VERY tight squeeze for her to place ahead of Meite at this year's Worlds, especially when Zawadzki struggles to skate a FS without falls. And, despite her experience on the GP, she's only managed to win one medal, which suggests that international judges want to see more from her. Personally, I wouldn't call two mediocre trips to Four Continents "plenty of experience," especially since she seems to have a difficult time delivering there.

    Gao's PB would have placed her ninth at Worlds, just behind Osmond (who fell twice in the FS). It's worrying if a mostly-clean Gao, as she was when she achieved that score at 4CC, can't place ahead of a seriously flawed debut senior. It could be argued, reasonably, that Gao has the chops to have placed ahead of the Russian girls. But if you compare Gao's best performance to date (2013 4CC) to one of Sotnikova's worst (2012 CoR), you'll see that the PCS separating the two is much too small for comfort--a little more than two points. Gao would have needed to come close to her PB just to beat Tuktamysheva, who completely tanked in the SP and only landed in the top ten when Suzuki faltered--and we still don't know how Gao would perform under the pressure that's been placed on Wagner and Gold. A decent Gao's best bet at Worlds, I think, would have been landing in the nine-point margin separating tenth from eleventh.

    As for Nagasu, on a good day, she can out-skate anyone but Wagner. Unfortunately, with the UR issues she's been having, the international technical callers no longer seem to feel that way. If she can't land more than two or three ratified triple jumps in the FS, then nothing short of a miracle will put her in the top ten.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    ((Math)), don't cry. I am right here on your side, all cheering for Alissa. Goooo Alissa!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    To me, it's straightforward. If Alissa stands up on her jumps, she will medal at Nationals and make the Olympic team. Alas, I think the odds are against her accomplishing this.
    This is exactly how I feel. However, she has pulled out strong performances seemingly out of nowhere in the past so it could happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    To me, it's straightforward. If Alissa stands up on her jumps, she will medal at Nationals and make the Olympic team. Alas, I think the odds are against her accomplishing this.
    Agreed depending on the jumps - doubles stood up won't do it. If she skates cleanly she will be on the team no matter what with three spots. Her spins and flow and grance will earn her the spot - the odds of Gold, Wagner and Nagasu all skating clean are very slim - mind you better than Alissa probably skating clean lol.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    That's my point about Zawadzki, though--her international PB is 166, and she achieved her to-date FS PB at 2011 Junior Worlds. It would have been a VERY tight squeeze for her to place ahead of Meite at this year's Worlds, especially when Zawadzki struggles to skate a FS without falls. And, despite her experience on the GP, she's only managed to win one medal, which suggests that international judges want to see more from her. Personally, I wouldn't call two mediocre trips to Four Continents "plenty of experience," especially since she seems to have a difficult time delivering there.

    Gao's PB would have placed her ninth at Worlds, just behind Osmond (who fell twice in the FS). It's worrying if a mostly-clean Gao, as she was when she achieved that score at 4CC, can't place ahead of a seriously flawed debut senior. It could be argued, reasonably, that Gao has the chops to have placed ahead of the Russian girls. But if you compare Gao's best performance to date (2013 4CC) to one of Sotnikova's worst (2012 CoR), you'll see that the PCS separating the two is much too small for comfort--a little more than two points. Gao would have needed to come close to her PB just to beat Tuktamysheva, who completely tanked in the SP and only landed in the top ten when Suzuki faltered--and we still don't know how Gao would perform under the pressure that's been placed on Wagner and Gold. A decent Gao's best bet at Worlds, I think, would have been landing in the nine-point margin separating tenth from eleventh.

    As for Nagasu, on a good day, she can out-skate anyone but Wagner. Unfortunately, with the UR issues she's been having, the international technical callers no longer seem to feel that way. If she can't land more than two or three ratified triple jumps in the FS, then nothing short of a miracle will put her in the top ten.
    Generally agree with you assessment of Agnes and Gao. Mirai, at NHK with internatinal judges, still placed 3rd with a 176 score despite 3 UR's in the FS. That score would still have placed her in the top 10 in London World's.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe Nero View Post
    Speaking only for myself, I love skaters whose performances make me nervous and cause me to sit on the edge of my seat. I know this is not a universal trait, and I know that it explains a lot about which skaters I favor...
    That's true, ha! I'd rather watch a skater whose skating has the potential to move me even if my knuckles are turning white in the process than a skater who might hit everything but will be forgettable. It's just one of those sports - who cares if a skater wins a gold medal if the performance is blah?

    Then again, I know some people are just never moved by Alissa because her style is too soft for them. Fair enough. I'm not one of them. Good luck Alissa!

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    Quote Originally Posted by b-man View Post
    Generally agree with you assessment of Agnes and Gao. Mirai, at NHK with internatinal judges, still placed 3rd with a 176 score despite 3 UR's in the FS. That score would still have placed her in the top 10 in London World's.
    Mirai gave a similar performance at CoC (1 UR in the SP, 3 in the FS) and ended up in fourth with 163.46, behind Mao, Kiira, and little Julia L. That's too much of a discrepancy for the US federation's comfort, as that score at Worlds would have put her behind Suzuki, in 13th. Meaning no disrespect of any sort, but I think Mirai had an easier time at NHK due to her popularity with the audience.

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