Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team?
Who do you think? While it seemed a given that Russia would have 3 spots for the Ladies at the Olympics, that's obviously no longer the case.
It seems to be a 3-way race for 2 spots, between Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya. But what about Gosviani, Makarova, Leonova, Korobeynikova?
I'm banking on Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya. Tuktamysheva has been outrageously inconsistent this season, while Lipnitskaya seems to have gotten past her initial struggles this season.
What does everyone else think?
Sotnikova (currently the strongest Russian lady) and Lipnitskaia/Tuktamysheva. We still don't know how Tukt will look next season--she finally seems to be getting accustomed to her new body--and Lipnitskaia is just starting her uphill battle with the puberty monster. It's quite possible that she won't be as leggy or thin in a few months, and her jumps are already notoriously borderline (especially the 2A). The fight between the latter two will most likely be a coin toss between who shows up in a better state of mind on the night of RN.
Leonova seems to have forgotten how to jump, although with her last Olympic opportunity on the line, she might be able to seize it. Gosviani and Korobeynikova are too inconsistent/inexperienced to pose a real threat at 2014 RN. Makarova, I believe, is finished with the sport and is pursuing higher education in New York. In any case, she was never a serious contender against the younger girls.
So, in conclusion, what I think each lady's chances are (each is out of 100%):
The problem with your percentages is they add up to 265%. For it to be realistically based your percentages would have to add up to 200% or less as there are only 2 spots. In any case Makarova should get a 0%, but other than that I agree with your relative order. I think Lipnitskaia is more likely to make it than Tuktamysheva right now though, and I think Leonova is still a possability, while Sotnikova is not even a total certainty albeit probably the most likely to make it. I wouldnt count out Gosviani or Korobeynikova but they would have to be lights out to get a spot. Is Polina A. still skating (I know Polina S. plans to skate for Israel now). Anna Pogorilaya has to be given an outside shot too I think.
I did say that I chanced each lady out of 100%, where 100 means that it's certain she'll get the spot... If you want to think of it in terms of probabilities, that's fine, too.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
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