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Thread: Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team?

  1. #106
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    I'd love to see Tuktamysheva and Sotnikova go, but Lipnitskaya is a strong contender.

  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Does Russia even have a leading lady who can consistently land clean triples? Adelina, Liza, Julia, Alena, Elena...none of them.
    Pogorilaya can. She very rarely gets URs or falls and can do 3lz-3t consistently, as well as 2a-3t-2t. 3f is a lip and her landings are not always clean (her edge jumps 3s and 3lo don't seem to be as strong or high as her other jumps, but she can still do them, fully rotated). With her success last season she could be in the mix, however like Julia a lot depends on the timing of puberty. And while Julia may stay very small, Anna's proportions are much less balanced, her legs are very long and shoulders broader, feet larger, compared to Julia so she most likely will experience a big growth spurt in the future, the question is when. If the worst of it doesn't hit until after Sochi, and at least 2 of the 3 frontrunners are still struggling, then maybe she could sneak onto the team. Even if she were to grow a lot this summer, it might not affect her jumps, or at least not right away. Shelepen was tiny in 10-11 season then over the summer grew a whole lot but was still jumping very well at the start of the season (later in the season her results began to slide, but it took a few months). Julia is in the same boat and Tuk to some extent as she seems to still be adjusting to her body changes and her body is still changing. Adelina has looked about the same for a few years now so the issue is more in her head and with her technique than anything else so it's hard to tell how she'll faire next season.

    Also big jumps don't mean one can do clean 3-3s or even necessarily indicates +GOE - Adelina is one example but also Courtney Hicks, her jumps are huge, but like Adelina 3-3s are almost always UR. Samantha Cesario also has big UR jumps, Mirai's jumps are not huge but they are pretty decent height wise but so often UR. So in that sense someone like Julia or Tuk who has smaller jumps but is able to rotate them more consistently is maybe better off, especially b/c with her technique Adelina won't be getting huge GOEs anyways (except maybe on her 3t-3t and 3lo, her best jumps, 3s is also okay).

  3. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Sorry, I meant consistently.
    Yuna Kim.

    Anna Pogorilaya landed 3Lz+3T 8 times at 4 competitions (both in SP and FS) JGP Final, SrNats, JrNats, JrWorlds.
    1 URed (at JrNats when she was in bad state after JGP Final and SrNats because of fatigue), 2 step out or bad exit, 5 clean on positive GOE. Is it consistent enough?
    While she is age eligible to ISU Senior Championships 2013/2014, she is very young - born 10 Apr 1998.
    At her age Sotnikova was consistent with 3Lz+3Lo.
    Nobody knows will Anna consistent in future or not.

    BTW, Radionova is better jumper than Pogorilaya but less consistent. The same Sakhanovich and other very young Russian female skaters.
    (Radionova is really better than Pogorilaya, of course, and it gives her wins.)

    Only Radionova and Pogorilaya of all Russian female skaters stably (almost always) skated Free Skate at Season 2012/2013 (Radionova's inconsistency is mostly at Short Program).
    Sothikova at last competitions of season URed all second triples in combos.
    Tuktamysheva and Sakhanovich may skate very good, and may not so good. Also Sotskova, Kolomiets and other "born at 2000-2001".

  4. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by LRK View Post
    Says the poster who managed to ignore not only Leonova's recent past competitions, but her entire season's performances, in post after post, merely focussing on her being (then) reigning WSM...
    I am not sure about this because when it came to euros i was saying she should go because she was eligible and gosviani was not because of isu minimums. She was beaten by a point by gosviani anyway. Then Russia went totally out if it was to get gosviani eligible but they still had the Russia cup final where Leonova beat gosviani. So the world silver was a part of it but not the only reason that you are implying.

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I agree that the competition will determine it, but I think the whole point is to make predictions based on generalities. Obviously skaters can improve for next season (or decline) and we won't know until they hit the ice. But as far as Leonova and Makarova go, it's really not looking very good for either of them. Russia's field is deep, but prone to errors internationally.
    Yeah so it is all about whose errors tend to be worse or could be most damaging and it could be sotnikova ur triples toes and flip issues and Flutz issues could prevent her from being on the team just like a catastrophic growth spurt could ruin Julia or s horrible short program could leave Liza in 10th place or lower or leonova might continue to do all her triples badly and on and on.

  5. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    I am not sure about this because when it came to euros i was saying she should go because she was eligible and gosviani was not because of isu minimums. She was beaten by a point by gosviani anyway. Then Russia went totally out if it was to get gosviani eligible but they still had the Russia cup final where Leonova beat gosviani. So the world silver was a part of it but not the only reason that you are implying.
    I think not sending Leonova to Euros was a mistake. She could have used the extra practice in preparation for Worlds and being left home probably affected her confidence. Everyone knew Gosviani would not be competitive at this level yet, but maybe in the future she can be a champion.

  6. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    At this point sotnikova has been Russian champ three times so it may be a little past potential. If you are discussing who will be on the team in Sochi the facts of each skater need to be mentioned. Worlds 2013 at wtt are the most recent examples of how she is when she competes. You can talk about the skaters in total generalities like Liza has good technique and sotnikova has big jumps and Alena won silver medal at a worlds or that sotnikova almost won euros but the competition will decide who goes to Sochi not total generalities.
    I agree with CSG--what else can we base our predictions off of, if not generalities? The Russian ladies have had some bad competitions--heck, all skaters do. Liza's excuse is most viable, as she never really got accustomed to her post-puberty body, which skewed all of her jumps and slowed her down. From what I hear, Alena is intentionally starving herself by eating one meal a day, which is wreaking serious havoc on her jumps. Adelina's problem is a technical one; I wouldn't be surprised if her inconsistency has some root in self-doubt about not being able to rotate her jumps. And Julia, as of now, can ONLY be spoken of in generalities, since we have absolutely no idea how puberty will treat her.

    It's important to remember that, since RN is only open to Russian skaters, all of whom have their own weaknesses, their issues will be judged on a lesser-evil basis. That is, is it better to have a UR'ed triple than no triple/a triple with cringe-worthy technique? Is it better to be fast and inconsistent, or slow and cautious? What does "artistry" really mean? This is what will determine the Olympic team.

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I think not sending Leonova to Euros was a mistake. She could have used the extra practice in preparation for Worlds and being left home probably affected her confidence. Everyone knew Gosviani would not be competitive at this level yet, but maybe in the future she can be a champion.
    Could you blame the Russian fed considering Leonova's abysmal nationals? Had Leonova not gotten that world silver or medalled you can bet she would have been an afterthought. So sad if she's actually starving herself though. :(

  8. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Could you blame the Russian fed considering Leonova's abysmal nationals? Had Leonova not gotten that world silver or medalled you can bet she would have been an afterthought. So sad if she's actually starving herself though. :(
    I believe this was mentioned in the thread immediately after Worlds concerning Tuktamysheva's results. Now I can't remember who provided the information, but it was confirmed on Alena's blog.

    In this post, she says that all she ate in the leadup to Worlds were Starbucks breakfasts and green apples, which caused her to tire quickly during practices.

    http://en.alena-leonova.ru/blog/the_.../2013-03-13-47

  9. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I agree with CSG--what else can we base our predictions off of, if not generalities? The Russian ladies have had some bad competitions--heck, all skaters do. Liza's excuse is most viable, as she never really got accustomed to her post-puberty body, which skewed all of her jumps and slowed her down. From what I hear, Alena is intentionally starving herself by eating one meal a day, which is wreaking serious havoc on her jumps. Adelina's problem is a technical one; I wouldn't be surprised if her inconsistency has some root in self-doubt about not being able to rotate her jumps. And Julia, as of now, can ONLY be spoken of in generalities, since we have absolutely no idea how puberty will treat her.

    It's important to remember that, since RN is only open to Russian skaters, all of whom have their own weaknesses, their issues will be judged on a lesser-evil basis. That is, is it better to have a UR'ed triple than no triple/a triple with cringe-worthy technique? Is it better to be fast and inconsistent, or slow and cautious? What does "artistry" really mean? This is what will determine the Olympic team.
    I am only taking about Russian nationals. Adelina's single flips and falls on flips or doing a flip poorly and then not doing a three jump combo attached to the flip may hurt her at Russian nationals. Maybe Russian nationals before Sochi won't call her urs or flutzing but i think they have. Then you have lizas bad short programs could hurt her even at Russian nationals. In worlds 2013 tuktamisheva finished behind leonova in the short program. All the issues I am talking about with jumps could effect them at Russian nationals as these are severe problems that are present at almost every competition they are in. If Liza doesn't two elements in the sp or does no combo or falls twice that will hurt her at Russian nationals. If sotnikova singles all her flips same thing. If julia has had catastrophic growth it goes on. But then you could have Leonova or gosvisni or whoever. Lots seem to be thinking that no matter what mistakes they make there is no one who can beat Adelina or Liza which is weird. I know Russian nationals is only open to Russian skaters and Kim yuna and Gracie gold wont be there Liza and Adelina can still be beaten because of their weaknesses.

  10. #115
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    Alena wasn't only eating breakfast she was eating only Starbucks breakfasts and apples. Have you seen Starbucks breakfastses? Not exactly skimpy!! Her jumps also were improved at worlds and the best of the season her worst jumping was in the second gp.

  11. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I believe this was mentioned in the thread immediately after Worlds concerning Tuktamysheva's results. Now I can't remember who provided the information, but it was confirmed on Alena's blog.

    In this post, she says that all she ate in the leadup to Worlds were Starbucks breakfasts and green apples, which caused her to tire quickly during practices.

    http://en.alena-leonova.ru/blog/the_.../2013-03-13-47
    Again:

    And, what do you think about Korobeneykova? She's been really inconsistent this season, but I would LOVE to see her at least in the Euros team! If somene bombs and Polina fonds the way to put together two decent programs, she could be a good alternative

  12. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Yuna Kim.

    Anna Pogorilaya landed 3Lz+3T 8 times at 4 competitions (both in SP and FS) JGP Final, SrNats, JrNats, JrWorlds.
    1 URed (at JrNats when she was in bad state after JGP Final and SrNats because of fatigue), 2 step out or bad exit, 5 clean on positive GOE. Is it consistent enough?
    While she is age eligible to ISU Senior Championships 2013/2014, she is very young - born 10 Apr 1998.
    At her age Sotnikova was consistent with 3Lz+3Lo.
    Nobody knows will Anna consistent in future or not.

    BTW, Radionova is better jumper than Pogorilaya but less consistent. The same Sakhanovich and other very young Russian female skaters.
    (Radionova is really better than Pogorilaya, of course, and it gives her wins.)

    Only Radionova and Pogorilaya of all Russian female skaters stably (almost always) skated Free Skate at Season 2012/2013 (Radionova's inconsistency is mostly at Short Program).
    Sothikova at last competitions of season URed all second triples in combos.
    Tuktamysheva and Sakhanovich may skate very good, and may not so good. Also Sotskova, Kolomiets and other "born at 2000-2001".
    The girls born in 2000 and 2001 are way to young to know what will happen in the future. Even Radionova, she is so small and all legs, for now she is great but what if she grows tall like Korobeynikova and becomes similarly inconsistent. Julia and Anna are quite small themselves and still are question marks in regards to the whole puberty situation, but look at them next to Radionova. http://www.jwcmilano2013.com/images/...n/ladies14.jpg . Anna does not even appear to be standing up fully straight and is several inches taller than Elena, and both she and Julia, who are really thin, are still much broader than Elena, who is probably about the same size as Mirai when she won the US title. We'll see if she keeps her jumps so good when she gets to be the size Julia and Anna are now, let alone when she finishes growing. At least Julia and Anna are over the first hurdle of their growth, if they are lucky, the future changes might not be that drastic. But Elena will undoubtedly go through a number of significant changes in the future and the same goes for all the 12 and 13 year olds you mention. They are not eligible for Sochi anyways.

    I guess the point I'm trying to make is, Liza is already dealing with puberty body changes and Adelina has had issues with her technique and competitive consistency for awhile now, these are established issues that are unlikely to be totally resolved in time for Sochi. But if Julia and/or Anna are lucky in that they either don't experience significant further changes in their bodies OR that such changes do not take place until after the Olympics, then I think they could very well make the Olympic team and do quite well. Maybe the team could even be the two of them and the situation could be similar to Lipinski in Nagano.

    Timing can make a big difference. Like Mirai in Vancouver for example. The event was timed in that it was long enough after her first growth spurt/body change/injury that she had time to recover her jumps, but took place before she finished filling out and once again struggled with the URs. She also happened to go through a steady improvement in regards to her jumps in a rapid manner just before the Olympics. At CoC her jumps were a mess and all URed, at Skate Canada the triples were all rotated and it was just the doubles and presentation that needed work, by Nationals the presentation was much better and a few URs showed up but they were less noticeable and were not enough to prevent her from making the team. Then at the Olympics the jumps were all there and rotated. Good timing. I didn't think Mirai was going to make the Olympic team that season let alone go and place fourth, but then she did, so I sort of feel the same way with the Russian ladies. There are so many good girls in contention that it might just come down to a matter of "peaking at the right time" both in terms of one's season but also career and development.

  13. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Yuna Kim.

    Anna Pogorilaya landed 3Lz+3T 8 times at 4 competitions (both in SP and FS) JGP Final, SrNats, JrNats, JrWorlds.
    1 URed (at JrNats when she was in bad state after JGP Final and SrNats because of fatigue), 2 step out or bad exit, 5 clean on positive GOE. Is it consistent enough?
    While she is age eligible to ISU Senior Championships 2013/2014, she is very young - born 10 Apr 1998.
    At her age Sotnikova was consistent with 3Lz+3Lo.
    Nobody knows will Anna consistent in future or not.

    [...]
    The original claim referred to senior ladies who could land the 3Lz+3T consistently. There are many young junior jumping beans who can pull off more difficult combos than Yuna. How many of them can still do so with consistency after they go through puberty?

  14. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    The original claim referred to senior ladies who could land the 3Lz+3T consistently. There are many young junior jumping beans who can pull off more difficult combos than Yuna. How many of them can still do so with consistency after they go through puberty?
    Pogorilaya will be senior age eligible.

    Also, the question shouldn't be how many senior Russian girls can land 3Lz+3T consistently. It should be How many senior ladies (from all over the world) can land 3Lz+3T consistently. As far as I know, only one -Yuna Kim. Because it seems that people here are expecting the Russian seniors to do it consistently (10 landed out of 10 attempted), but the fact it that appart of Yu-Na there won't be anyone else who can do it with such consistency. So why do you expect it from the Russians and if their success rate is not 100%, they get labelled as headcase and 'having serious technical issues'.

  15. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanca View Post
    Pogorilaya will be senior age eligible.
    She was just named to the junior national team, however, so at least for the fall, I would assume this mean she competes on JGP again. I guess the Fed wants to give Leonova one last chance to redeem herself before she gets dumped and probably wants to see how Gosviani fares on the GP. It is interesting though that Radinova is on the main national team and is not age eligible for the Olympics or ISU championships. I mean, certainly she is worthy of the GP after dominating all last season, but she could very well knock out one of the other Russian girls who IS eligible for the Olympics by competing on the GP versus JGP. We could potentially see a situation similar to Asada in 2006. Pogorilaya could still be in the mix for Euros, Olympics, or Worlds, however, so long as she qualifies for senior Nationals. She is only just 15 so her staying on JGP is sensible, I'm just surprised about Radionova in some ways just with the Olympics so close and her not being eligible. If she kicks everyone's butts on the GP this fall it will create a bit of a sour situation in regards to the Olympic team (ie. the best skater in the Nation, maybe World, is not allowed to compete at the Olympics, yet is allowed to compete against all the competitors who will be there during the fall).

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