Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team?

CanadianSkaterGuy · May 23, 2013

gmyers said:
All you have to do is look at the protocol and see what jumps she did and were completed. I say she could have been cleaner but " a lot better" I dont think so!

She underrotated her lutz, fell out and put a hand down on her 2A-3T, and neglected to do a 3 jump combo.

Her TES score in her 2012 Cup of China FS: 57.43
Her TES score in her 2012 World Junior FS: 67.34

That's a difference of almost 10 points... and it would be a difference of 13 points if you factor in the ChSq1. Would you not say 13 points is "a lot better"?

gmyers · May 23, 2013

Mirunna said:
She could have some decent choreography, listen to the music, and maybe actually skating to the music would improve her PCS. Also, she can improve the overall quality of her jumps (GOE was very modest for her jumps at COC). Of course there are many skaters who can (and did) skate way better than Julia did at Cup of China, both from a technical point of view (Yuna ticks all the boxes for difficulty AND quality, something Julia lacks) and presentation wise (top 10 at worlds are capable to ourscore her on PCS currently).

I dont agree that from a technical pov many skaters did better than Julia at coc when you think of the sp and lp together. Certainly not during the gp! From what she attempted and completed at coc there just isn't a lot of room to go to harder jumps or more triples. She could have been cleaner in the lutz for example but just not "a lot" better and she reduced her difficulty for jr worlds. Eliminating 3/3 from her fs so she knew that she had to be cleaner for goe but for what she did a coc it was one of he hardest layouts of the season and she almost nailed and it's tue that few skaters even tried what she did there.

gmyers · May 23, 2013

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
She underrotated her lutz, fell out and put a hand down on her 2A-3T, and neglected to do a 3 jump combo.

Her TES score in her 2012 Cup of China FS: 57.43
Her TES score in her 2012 World Junior FS: 67.34

That's a difference of almost 10 points... and it would be a difference of 13 points if you factor in the ChSq1. Would you not say 13 points is "a lot better"?

Well she reduced a lot of the Difficulty so was cleaner and got more goe. Didn't really challenge herself like she was trying to during the gp. And when you don't really challenge yourself and be safe you can totally rack up the goe and get all the base value and do a lot better. Thats cop.

Moment · May 23, 2013

Julia Lipnitskaia's toe jumps and Axel could be a lot better and should be. What's the point of more and more triples or difficulty talk if your basics are so weak. The same goes with her skating skills.

fairly4 · May 23, 2013

I dont which of the Russian starlets will be on the,Olympic team.

This is my take because they have many,starlets, Adelina,Elizaveta,Julia,Elena Radinova plus Alena, possible Polina Korb and other, and only 2 spots.
They will be fighting it out among themselves all season anf at their Russian nationals and whereever else, that whomever the Russian Federation pjcks fof the Olympicz.
It will seem like a walk in ths park for them, a mjor relief is over,by making th team.
So when they do,skate ,there may not be,the pressure put on,them,and can just skate.

Why because,most people think the ladies podium as,of,now,is
1. Yuna
2&3 Mao, &Carolina Kostner
The Russian ladies on home ice is just for the experience and to show how good,they are.
The Young Russian ladies havd outside shot of a medal at best. Their timd id,more likely in2018.

We know that ice isnt slippery and all goes as planed in figure skating competitions olympic or otherwise.

Mirunna · May 23, 2013

gmyers said:
I dont agree that from a technical pov many skaters did better than Julia at coc when you think of the sp and lp together. Certainly not during the gp! From what she attempted and completed at coc there just isn't a lot of room to go to harder jumps or more triples. She could have been cleaner in the lutz for example but just not "a lot" better and she reduced her difficulty for jr worlds. Eliminating 3/3 from her fs so she knew that she had to be cleaner for goe but for what she did a coc it was one of he hardest layouts of the season and she almost nailed and it's tue that few skaters even tried what she did there.

Yes, the layout was very hard and she went for everything. But Mao also TRIES the most difficult layout which doesn't mean she'll get the highest TES because she doesn't have the quality of the jumps like Yuna/Caro (I am talking about Mao's recent layouts) . Ok, Julia tried and managed to land almost everything she planned in China but my main point was that the quality was missing and she lost a lot of points in GOE. If she cleans up her technique and with the same content her TES will skyrocket in the next seasons. What she did at CoC was good but could have been better. She was visibly nervous especially in the LP and the score suffered mostly on GOE (in the TES score).

gmyers · May 23, 2013

Mirunna said:
Yes, the layout was very hard and she went for everything. But Mao also TRIES the most difficult layout which doesn't mean she'll get the highest TES because she doesn't have the quality of the jumps like Yuna/Caro (I am talking about Mao's recent layouts) . Ok, Julia tried and managed to land almost everything she planned in China but my main point was that the quality was missing and she lost a lot of points in GOE. If she cleans up her technique and with the same content her TES will skyrocket in the next seasons. What she did at CoC was good but could have been better. She was visibly nervous especially in the LP and the score suffered mostly on GOE (in the TES score).

No matter what julias mental state was in China and just in China Julia did 9 triples to maos 4 triples and the point of this was to show how even if Julia or Elena or Liza or whoever out jumps by dramatic margins a vet like kostner or Mao there chances of beating them now are almost none. Obviously the 9 triples for Julia and 4 triples for Mao info is just meaningless if all those triples are not done so amazingly and spectacularly. They can't just be landed. You have to be blown away by them and their total perfection! Better to be Mao with 4. Dont get it!

yuki · May 23, 2013

I'm going to leave these numbers here and you can draw your own conclusions (N.B.: these refer to jumps only)

COC 2012 Julia Lipnitskaya
SP: 18.7 (BV) + 0.46 (GOE) = 19.16
Jumps landed: 3Lz+3T, 3F, 2A

LP: 41.85 (BV) - 1.99 (GOE) = 39.86
Jumps landed: 3Lz<+3T, 2A+3T, 2A, 3Lo, 3Lz+2T, 3F, 3S

Total score for jumps: 61.01

COC 2012 Mao Asada
SP: 14.41 (BV) + 0.6 (GOE) = 15.01
Jumps landed: 2A, 3F<+2Lo, 3Lo

LP: 34.77 (BV) - 0.64 (GOE) = 34.13
Jumps landed: 3Lo, 2A+3T<<, 3F<, 2Lz, 3S, 3Lo+2Lo, 3F<+2Lo+2Lo<

Total score for jumps: 49.14

Julia gained an advantage of 61.01-49.14 = 11.87 points on jumps over Mao.

References: SP scores and FS scores (If you notice any mistakes, feel free to correct them!)

Mirunna · May 24, 2013

gmyers said:
Better to be Mao with 4. Dont get it!

Ur'd triple jumps get points too you know. Had Mao doubled or singled thouse Urd triples Julia would have won by some margin. Beside those 4 rotated jumps you keep talking about Mao got another 19.84 points on her other jumps (SP+LP).
Plus, as Yuki said, Julia got over 10 points in front of Mao for her superior jumps the landed then.
The russian ladies can beat a flawed Mao, Caro or Yuna. Liza posted a 130+ score at Euros for her LP. Adelina is getting close to a 70 points LP.

vera01 · May 24, 2013

Mirunna said:
Ur'd triple jumps get points too you know. Had Mao doubled or singled thouse Urd triples Julia would have won by some margin. Beside those 4 rotated jumps you keep talking about Mao got another 19.84 points on her other jumps (SP+LP).
Plus, as Yuki said, Julia got over 10 points in front of Mao for her superior jumps the landed then.
The russian ladies can beat a flawed Mao, Caro or Yuna. Liza posted a 130+ score at Euros for her LP. Adelina is getting close to a 70 points LP.

Russian ladies need to be flawless, too. Yuna at this Worlds did have flaws(for her SP) but she was, at the end, 40 points ahead of Russian ladies. So unless Russians skate a flawless program(for Adelina-two skates that are even better than her Euro skates) and Big Three skates two programs that are far from being flawless, it won't be easy for Russian ladies to beat Big Three.

venlac · May 24, 2013

vera01 said:
Yuna at this Worlds did have flaws(for her SP) but she was, at the end, 40 points ahead of Russian ladies.

What did she had flaws in SP

Didnt russian babies had many mistakes?
And I think this would be better example. Caro and Mao had more mistakes and easily won russian babies by 20 points, and also won kanako who had clean programs and higher TES, and even there was many skaters who got higher TES and had less mistakes than them.

Moment · May 24, 2013

Yuna's short program had one minor flaw, the flying camel spin. Ignore the edge call.

Also she looked a little bit tense but it matched the whole theme of the program, so it didn't bother me.

yuki · May 24, 2013

venlac said:
And I think this would be better example. Caro and Mao had more mistakes and easily won russian babies by 20 points, and also won kanako who had clean programs and higher TES, and even there was many skaters who got higher TES and had less mistakes than them.

I'm assuming you mean SP+LP combined, because in the LP Kanako's TES (60.98) was lower than both Carolina's (61.34) and Mao's (65.96). Similarly to Carolina, Kanako had low-ish base value (53.98 vs. Carolina's 50.75), but made up for it with good GOE (7.00 vs. Carolina's 10.59). Mao's high TES comes mostly from her base value (62.30); the GOE she got in the FS was only 3.66.

silverlake22 · May 24, 2013

gmyers said:
I don't agree Julia or anyone really can skate a lot better than Julia did at coc. There just isn't a lot of improvement from that level. She can do the same program cleaner but I don't see " a lot better" from those level of jumps being completed all at one competition.

No 3 jump combo, URed jump, hand down on another jump, a mistake on a spin, and lower quality jumps compared to usual does add up to quite a bit of points. Another poster already showed that, the difference from CoC to Julia at her best is about 10-13 points in TES, and then the PCS could go up as well when she's skating cleanly. Also, Mao's FS at CoC was not nearly as bad as her one from NHK and doesn't qualify as a meltdown at all, and Julia beat her in the SP as it was anyways. Obviously an Asada or Kostner at their best is way better than a clean Lipnitskaya or Radionova and would crush either, HOWEVER, I am just trying to say that it really wouldn't be that weird if Elena were to beat either or both of them on the GP next season because Mao and Caro have often made multiple costly errors in a program which are enough for their PCS margin over the jumping beans to be eaten up and then the jumping beans still have some points leftover from ridiculous content executed cleanly so they wind up winning. We saw it with Liza, with Mao in 2006, and we almost saw it with Julia when she wasn't even clean, so why not Radionova?

venlac · May 24, 2013

yuki said:
I'm assuming you mean SP+LP combined,

Yes

gmyers · May 24, 2013

silverlake22 said:
No 3 jump combo, URed jump, hand down on another jump, a mistake on a spin, and lower quality jumps compared to usual does add up to quite a bit of points. Another poster already showed that, the difference from CoC to Julia at her best is about 10-13 points in TES, and then the PCS could go up as well when she's skating cleanly. Also, Mao's FS at CoC was not nearly as bad as her one from NHK and doesn't qualify as a meltdown at all, and Julia beat her in the SP as it was anyways. Obviously an Asada or Kostner at their best is way better than a clean Lipnitskaya or Radionova and would crush either, HOWEVER, I am just trying to say that it really wouldn't be that weird if Elena were to beat either or both of them on the GP next season because Mao and Caro have often made multiple costly errors in a program which are enough for their PCS margin over the jumping beans to be eaten up and then the jumping beans still have some points leftover from ridiculous content executed cleanly so they wind up winning. We saw it with Liza, with Mao in 2006, and we almost saw it with Julia when she wasn't even clean, so why not Radionova?

People keep mentioning the flaws of Julia but she still did 9 triples to maos 4 at coc!! I know urs get partial credit but Julia got close to all credit on 9 triples to maos 4! This is why radionova has no chance as now kostner has 3/3 and flip and lutz and Mao can do only 4 triples and win. Radionova can't make one mistake the pcs won't be there. Liza in 2011 never won a free skate in a gp! Look at her victories in 2011 - no free skate victories. Her victories were all short program based before her short program ability collapsed again starting at 2011 gpf. What If radionova does 9 triples to maos 4 but commits the competition wrecking sin of a hand down!!!

venlac · May 24, 2013

silverlake22 said:
No 3 jump combo, URed jump, hand down on another jump, a mistake on a spin, and lower quality jumps compared to usual does add up to quite a bit of points. Another poster already showed that, the difference from CoC to Julia at her best is about 10-13 points in TES, and then the PCS could go up as well when she's skating cleanly. Also, Mao's FS at CoC was not nearly as bad as her one from NHK and doesn't qualify as a meltdown at all, and Julia beat her in the SP as it was anyways. Obviously an Asada or Kostner at their best is way better than a clean Lipnitskaya or Radionova and would crush either, HOWEVER, I am just trying to say that it really wouldn't be that weird if Elena were to beat either or both of them on the GP next season because Mao and Caro have often made multiple costly errors in a program which are enough for their PCS margin over the jumping beans to be eaten up and then the jumping beans still have some points leftover from ridiculous content executed cleanly so they wind up winning. We saw it with Liza, with Mao in 2006, and we almost saw it with Julia when she wasn't even clean, so why not Radionova?

this is not main subject of this post.
But Mao in 2006 and now Liza/Julia are in completely different condition as a youngster. when young Mao won veterans, Gap of PCS between youngster and veterans was not huge like now.
- when young Mao beat Irina, In 2005 GPF (that season was her first senior debut season), her SP PCS(28) was only 2 point lower than Irina(30), her FS PCS(29) was only 1 point lower than Irina(30).
And her TES was 11points ahead of Irina, In total, she got 8 point ahead of Irina and won in that event.

Now the gap is more than 10 points. So even if young won about 10 points in TES, they could not beat veterans because of PCS. In 05-06 season, it was such a thing can not happen.

yuki · May 24, 2013

gmyers said:
People keep mentioning the flaws of Julia but she still did 9 triples to maos 4 at coc!! I know urs get partial credit but Julia got close to all credit on 9 triples to maos 4!

You keep insisting on that, but with all her 5-triple advantage, across both programs Julia only got 11.87 more points on jumps than Mao did, which is less than the BV for 3 triple toes - so either Julia wasn't as good or Mao wasn't as terrible as you seem to think.

gmyers · May 24, 2013

yuki said:
You keep insisting on that, but with all her 5-triple advantage, across both programs Julia only got 11.87 more points on jumps than Mao did, which is less than the BV for 3 triple toes - so either Julia wasn't as good or Mao wasn't as terrible as you seem to think.

I know that because of the ur scoring rules Mao did get a lot of partial credits for her "triples" so it is all to illustrate how one skater can do 9 triples and another can do 4 and the person with 4 wins If they have the pcs and spin and step bv and goe. So If radionova or someone does 9 or 10 triples but has a hand down are aren't perfect and amazing it won't matter-like It didn't matter with Julia vs Mao.

CanadianSkaterGuy · May 24, 2013

Mao had many issues, but as mentioned, she did get 70% credit for her URs. Her SP wasn't "bad" points-wise... she still did a 2A, 3L, 3F<-2L, which isn't anything to shake a stick at, but can still score high with her PCS (Kostner had 3-3 fall, 3L, 2A, and was 2nd after the Worlds SP, so it's not like a top skater with an error will be severely penalized).

As mentioned, FS-wise, she got higher GOE on her elements, proportionally, compared to Julia and thus their TES gap was only like 3 points (which was easily mitigated by her PCS gap). However, Julia was less than 4 points behind Mao overall so, had she landed her 2A-3T cleanly and done the 3rd jump in that combo, mathematically she would have won (even with the UR lutz). Yes, it's true that Lipnitskaia had to do a lot more to potentially win, and Asada could afford a lot more errors before potentially losing, but it wasn't out of the realm of possibility.

Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team?

CanadianSkaterGuy

gmyers

gmyers

Moment

fairly4

Mirunna

gmyers

yuki

Mirunna

vera01

venlac

Moment

yuki

silverlake22

venlac

gmyers

venlac

yuki

gmyers

CanadianSkaterGuy

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