Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team? | Page 8 | Golden Skate

Which 2 Russian Ladies will make the Olympic Team?

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
If comparing Sotnikova and Radionova:

Sotnikova had:
Good season 2008/09
Bad season 2009/10
Good season 2010/11
Not so good 2011/12 and 2012/13.

Radionova had only good seasons.
Her scores at JrNats:
2010 - 131.38
2011 - 158.97
2012 - 178.94
2013 - 200.19

This was Elena's first real international season, and her results were identical to Adelina's 2010/2011, except Adelina won Nationals and Elena finished 2nd. To call Elena's 138 at junior nationals a "good season" and Adelina winning 6 medals in 6 events last year a "not so good season" is an interesting comparison. :rolleye:
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
DMD: Lipinski is caucasion I believe the last time I checked (unless you are suggesting she wasn't a "woman"). :)
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
DMD: Lipinski is caucasion I believe the last time I checked (unless you are suggesting she wasn't a "woman"). :)

As were Oksana Baiul and Sarah Hughes, but both were 16 IIRC, and their bodies changed after their wins. Sarah in particular stayed eligible but never regained her SLC level.
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
DMD: Lipinski is caucasion I believe the last time I checked (unless you are suggesting she wasn't a "woman"). :)

The full quote from DMD included an age specification:

Considering that no Caucasian woman over the age of 16 has won an OGM since the 3Z became a necessary jump in 1992, it is likely that Elena's level will dip significantly once she reaches her late teens and competes against the best senior skaters.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Radionova will get low pcs in seniors comparable to Tuk's level and her jumps are tiny so not much GOE either
she's a non factor this coming GP with Yuna and Carolina competing, judges will probably snub her as she is ineligible for Sochi anyways
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
This was Elena's first real international season, and her results were identical to Adelina's 2010/2011, except Adelina won Nationals and Elena finished 2nd. To call Elena's 138 at junior nationals a "good season" and Adelina winning 6 medals in 6 events last year a "not so good season" is an interesting comparison. :rolleye:

Elena is 2 and half years younger than Adelina.
So Elena's 2010 is about Adelina's 2008 (Elena 1st at "baby Russia", Adelina 2nd).
2012 - about Adelina's 2010 (Elena 3rd at JrNats, Adelina 6th).
Yes, Adelina at 2011 was 1st at SrNats, Elena at 2013 2nd, but Elena at 2013 won Adelina.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Radionova will get low pcs in seniors comparable to Tuk's level and her jumps are tiny so not much GOE either
she's a non factor this coming GP with Yuna and Carolina competing, judges will probably snub her as she is ineligible for Sochi anyways

You say this now but Osmond, Gold, and Li were not putting up scores nearly as high as Radionova has internationally when they competed as juniors just one season before, and then at this past Worlds their PCS were in the 7s and 8s, so I think it is quite possible Radionova gets similar PCS scores this upcoming season on the GP. Li is not exactly a powerful skater with huge jumps or a mature look/presence on the ice either, and she was 4th in the FS at Worlds with quite decent PCS. Mao got like 67ish PCS in the FS at Worlds, so if Elena were to get around 60ish (quite possible, as that's around what Gold, Osmond, and Li got at Worlds), then the deficit would only be around 7 points which she could easily overcome with a few mistakes or URs from Mao if she skates clean (and she might not even need to be clean depending on how many errors Mao makes, which oftentimes it's quite a lot). Gold and Osmond have big jumps sure but not much else and they are both sort of sloppy when it comes to presentation so if they can get PCS in the 7s and 8s as first year seniors I see no reason why Radionova, who actually pays attention to her music and emotes quite well, can't do the same. She could even do better.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Radionova will get low pcs in seniors comparable to Tuk's level and her jumps are tiny so not much GOE either
she's a non factor this coming GP with Yuna and Carolina competing, judges will probably snub her as she is ineligible for Sochi anyways

a) Even when she gets low PCS she gets scores that are capable of easily medaling on the GP.
b) Her PCS will likely be higher than Junior Worlds - by how much, that's up in the air (obviously depends on her programs)
c) Her jumps aren't the hugest but they're fine... expecting a junior skater to have huge jumps isn't particularly fair, not to mention she has good speed, transitions, and fully rotates her jumps, so they generally get good GOE.
d) She has some of the highest jumping difficulty ever, and certainly higher difficulty than almost anyone in the World today (yes, including Kim... Sakhamovich is the only one with as hard a layout, and Mao).
e) Russian Junior World medalists/winners have often had a successful follow-up season on the GP, earning medals (Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaia).

The only thing holding back Radionova is that even with mistakes, Kim and Kostner will likely beat hear soundly thanks to an overwhelming PCS advantage, but f) there's no telling if she'll even compete against Kim/Kostner/Mao on the GP.

I wouldn't be surprised if she pulls a Mao 2006 and wins the GPF based on her technical abilities and people get all up in arms that she can't go to the Olympics.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
^^ this. word. that is all i'm saying. she won't necessarily beat mao/kim/kostner but she COULD, and she might not even have to face any of them until the final anyways, so then it would just take beating them once (given that they all qualify for and compete at the GPF - idk, I could see Kim or Kostner skipping it potentially) to cause a ruckus. it took sotnikova until euros this year, which was judged quite generously, to top her PB FS score which she put up at her first JGP, which was 117, and stuck around for a good, long time. she's only topped that once to date. radiova has already scored 120+ on the JGP and she's younger and smaller than sotnikova was when she debuted on the gp so puberty issues, if they derail her, might not even be an issue until the following season (like they weren't for tuk when she debuted on the gp). and even with low pcs tuk in her first year on the gp won two golds and was 2nd in the fs at the gpf and was really the person everyone was talking about as the one to beat leading up to it. tuk is also slower with less ice coverage and nowhere near as good spins as radionova, even if her jumps are a little better, and she won those gp golds while making a mistake or two in her programs at each event. therefore, i think radionova can have as much if not more of an impact on the gp this season as tuk did in 11-12. i'm not saying she necessarily will but definitely she can.
 

Moment

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 18, 2013
Elena Radionova, not exactly impressed by her skating. Not when she skates all busy and leaves me confused, or her landings look wobbly without any flow. She just doesn't have the execution.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
The difference between Gold/Osmond and Radionova is that Gold and Osmond have much stronger skating skills, in addition, of course, to better jumps (and, ergo, higher TES). Gold could realistically score above or close to 70 in TES once she fixes her lip and starts consistently landing 7 clean, US Nationals-quality triples, and Osmond can beat Radionova in interpretation any day. When the GP starts, I wouldn't be surprised if Gold also has a significant advantage in PCS. In short, they have a definite leg-up on Radionova right now. To claim otherwise is delusional.

As for the suggestion that Radionova can WIN the GPF...no. That could only happen if Yuna, Carolina, and Mao all decided to drop out--and then, I'm not even sure that she could beat Wagner or Suzuki. She isn't the sensation that was 2006 Mao, who was landing triple axels all over the place and having phenomenal artistry to boot. It was considered a huge shame that Mao couldn't compete in Torino, as many did think that she was the best in the world at that point. Radionova, not so much.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Both Yuna and kostner have triple triples and Mao can do a 3a. If radionova can't outjump them by doing 3a and 3/3 or quads she has no chance at all in any way of beating any of them. Because of pcs and spins steps Julia couldn't defeat a a Mao that did three triples of two kinds!!! 3 triples vs julias 10!!! Elena pcs wouldn't be that much better than julias!!
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Both Yuna and kostner have triple triples and Mao can do a 3a. If radionova can't outjump them by doing 3a and 3/3 or quads she has no chance at all in any way of beating any of them. Because of pcs and spins steps Julia couldn't defeat a a Mao that did three triples of two kinds!!! 3 triples vs julias 10!!! Elena pcs wouldn't be that much better than julias!!

Julia did not skate very well at CoC when Mao beat her, however. She was having visible trouble with her jumps, and Mao didn't beat her by that much anyways. And Radionova's PCS will likely be higher than Lipnitskaya's who is basically tone deaf and doesn't bother to try and even pretend that she's paying attention to the music.

As for Osmond and Gold, yes, I would agree they have better skating skills, bigger jumps, and obviously a lot more power than Radionova, primarily because they are strongly built women while Radionova is a 14 year old waif. Osmond maybe has better interpretation, but she's a bit truckdriver-ish still, and Gold's "artistry" consists of looking like a dear in the headlights while having a beauty pageant smile permanently plastered on her face. Maturity is not everything. Plus what about Li, she is a better example to compare to Radionova anyways and she has done really well this season, with decent PCS.

It may have been a long time ago, but Kostner did finish 12th at Worlds and 16th at the Olympics, and Mao was OTP at Worlds for a number of years until finally getting back on it this season, and failed to make the GPF the fall before the last Olympics, when she was focusing a lot on the 3a. These two are not as shatterproof as some seem to think, very talented of course, but throughout their entire careers they have consistently made a considerable number of mistakes in competition.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
Julia did not skate very well at CoC when Mao beat her, however. She was having visible trouble with her jumps, and Mao didn't beat her by that much anyways. And Radionova's PCS will likely be higher than Lipnitskaya's who is basically tone deaf and doesn't bother to try and even pretend that she's paying attention to the music.

Julia cleaned her all jump element except edge call on 3F in SP, 3lz "<"- 3t in FS
And her program's base value was very high. i thought she did skate well.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Julia cleaned her all jump element except edge call on 3F in SP, 3lz "<"- 3t in FS
And her program's base value was very high. i thought she did skate well.

Not nearly as well as she was skating the season before though, especially not compared to the clean skate she had at JW. This season Julia's jumps looked a lot more awkward and laboured compared to before even though she was still landing most of them, this was most likely because she was battling injuries and grew and upped her content, but during the GP most people agreed that Julia was not skating like her usual self.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
As for Osmond and Gold, yes, I would agree they have better skating skills, bigger jumps, and obviously a lot more power than Radionova, primarily because they are strongly built women while Radionova is a 14 year old waif. Osmond maybe has better interpretation, but she's a bit truckdriver-ish still, and Gold's "artistry" consists of looking like a dear in the headlights while having a beauty pageant smile permanently plastered on her face. Maturity is not everything. Plus what about Li, she is a better example to compare to Radionova anyways and she has done really well this season, with decent PCS.

Please tell me where "artistry" in your opinion of what you wrote about Gold is judged. :rolleye:

Wagner, Murakami, Suzuki, Osmond, Sotnikova, and Gold blow Radionova out of the water in SS (which is the leading (telling) score for most judges' PCS). She doesn't have the power these ladies do because she's only 14 and pretty much this group is considered the "second tier" of the top 10 right now. Li was a couple points behind in PCS at Worlds to this group in the LP where she was darn-near as close to perfect as she gets and that is because of a distinct lack of power.

Gold didn't get the same Junior international scores because she had exactly TWO events and didn't get put in front of the Junior International judges enough to get the significant jump between events that Radionova did. Same for Osmond, who also really seemed to blossom in her first year in Seniors more so than her previous season as a Junior.

I don't know why there's a huge discussion about Radionova in this thread anyway, she's not eligible for Sochi.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Julia cleaned her all jump element except edge call on 3F in SP, 3lz "<"- 3t in FS
And her program's base value was very high. i thought she did skate well.

You are right she did skate well. The point was anyway that Julia could rotate like 10 triples to maos 3 over sp and lp and still lose due to pcs and spin steps goe. Many judges disagreed about Julia being tone deaf and she did not get Zeroes or even below 5 in The relevant pcs categories for music.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Both Yuna and kostner have triple triples and Mao can do a 3a. If radionova can't outjump them by doing 3a and 3/3 or quads she has no chance at all in any way of beating any of them. Because of pcs and spins steps Julia couldn't defeat a a Mao that did three triples of two kinds!!! 3 triples vs julias 10!!! Elena pcs wouldn't be that much better than julias!!

The reliability of Kostner's 3-3 and Mao's 3A is adequate at best. Not to mention they are very prone to errors. That's not to say they'll be the same for next season, but I don't think that a program full of errors should beat a 7 triple performance by Radionova/Lipnitskaia, even with the putative PCS advantage. Lipnitskaia was ahead of Mao in the CoC SP, even with such a PCS advantage (due to harder content and Mao making an error), so it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could overtake Mao/Kostner. Lipnitskaia also had three major errors which cost her the victory over Mao - a UR 3Z, a mistake on the 2A-3T, a level 1 spin, and no 3 jump combo. Mao, on the whole, also received better GOE (BV 50.27 -> 54.53 with GOE) than Julia (BV 55.05 -> 57.43 with GOE), and a 7-point PCS advantage over Julia.

Kim is a different beast though with her consistency, and I can't picture Lipnitskaia/Radionova ever beating her (but it's not really fair to ask that of them either, when Kim is the class of the field).
 
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