No, I don't think Gao or Zawadzki can make the top ten if ALL skaters skate to their potential. If Sotnikova and/or Osmond seriously (and I mean seriously) bomb(s), I could possibly see a case being made for Gao, but also for Tuktamysheva, who has nicer jumps and a PB 12 points higher than Gao's.
Oda doesn't have much of a chance, IMO. His PB would have placed him 5th at 2013 Worlds, but the problem is that he achieved that PB 7 years ago. I know that injury led to him missing out on 2012 Worlds, but this season, he simply failed to qualify. If either Joubert or Brezina has a meltdown at the Olympics (not unlikely), Oda could place in the top ten (if he qualifies with Hanyu, Takahashi, Mura, and Kozuka alo in the mix), but I don't think it's likely given how long he's been out of the big international spotlight (Worlds and 4CC).
I don't think Ando will win Japanese Nationals, but if she is skating well, I'd wonder if the stronger team would be considered to be Asada, Suzuki, Ando rather than Asada, Suzuki, Murakami (although I'd much prefer Murakami.)
1 Yuna Kim
2 Mao Asada
3 Adelina Sotnikova
4 Carolina Kostner - I don't think they will allow her to be on the podium with falls for an Olympics and I don't believe she will be fall-less...but I hope I'm wrong.
5 Gracie Gold
6 Akiko Suzuki
7 Ashley Wagner
8 Zijun Li
9 Kanako Murakami
10 Kaetlyn Osmond
1 Javier Fernandez (It would be cool for Orser to have OGM pupils two Olympics in a row! Fernandez or Hanyu)
2 Patrick Chan
3 Yuzuru Hanyu
4 Denis Ten
5 Daisuke Takahashi
6 Kevin Reynolds
7 Max Aaron
8 Evgeni Plushenko
9 Takahiko Kozuka
10 Brian Joubert
You can get away with skating through Life is Beautiful moreso than Sleeping Beauty (especially in a country where ballet is practically a religion)-- 5th seems optimistic for Gold imo, barring everyone else' programs being extremely unpalatable.
Well, Gold WAS sixth at Worlds, and that was with multiple mistakes in both programs and poor choreography.
Originally Posted by cornell08
International judges dont like Agnes, even those rare cases when she skates decently. Her popularity is completely a U.S thing it seems. She also almost never manages to skate that well in long programs, either Nationals or Internationals, but atleast at Nationals she often does a great short and she doesnt even produce that at Internationals. So if she makes the team (a strong possability given that she was 3rd the last 2 Nationals) hard to see her top 10 at the Games.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
Not sure about Gao. I guess if she skates like Skate America she could, or even more if she further improves in her quest for that 3rd spot on the Oly Team and brings back the 3-3. BTW are either Gao or Agnes planning on continuing past this next season, and if so all the way to 2018 or just halfway?
Nagasu and Czisny are a mess in many ways now, but their international history still suggests their best (even if only 10% likely they will produce that if one makes it) is probably more likely to eke into the top 10 somehow than Zawadzki especialy, and probably Gao also. Nonetheless Agnes and Gao are more likely to make the team.
Whichever U.S lady is number 3 though it will probably take some help to make top 10. The top 11 from Worlds this year are extremely strong and unless one has a meltdown like Suzuki did at Worlds all hard to dislodge for all others, let alone 2 or more.
I would concur Oda isnt really likely to make the top 10 if he makes the team. I dont think he is likely to make the team though. Will probably be Mura or Kozuka, and both are capable of a top 10 if they make it, although Kozuka could mistake himself right out of the top 10 and Mura could be shut out of the top 1- even skating well if it is a well skated event. Machida has an outside shot to get that 3rd spot, similar to Oda at this point, but is equally unlikely to make top 10 if he makes it there.
How many of you follow ontd_skating?
Every once in awhile, I'll check in on the site but this post was just too good to keep to myself
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