Very early top 10 predictions per discipline for Sochi

pangtongfan · May 31, 2013

Kozuka is clearly past his peak at his point, and as Japanese number 3 he wont get very high PCS either even if he skates well. So even if he makes it to Sochi top 5 would be a real long shot. As for who I would expect to place over him right now: Fernandez, Hanyu, Chan, Takahashi, Reynolds, Aaron, Plushenko, Amodio, Joubert, Ten, I would all pick to place higher right now. Enough of those will finish above him to keep him out of the top 5. Yes if he skated clean he would probably have a decent shot at top 5 depending how others skated, but his last clean competition was years ago now anyway.

Li'Kitsu · May 31, 2013

Could the 'number 3 PCS' crap stop already? Kozuka's PCS didn't drop at all - when he was clean at worlds 2011 his PCS were 82.26. At the 2012 GPF with a fall and a shaky 3A he received 82.3. Looking at the SPs, he had mistakes in both competitions but got 40.75 compared to 37.79 in 2011! And he was already 'japanese third' behind Takahashi and Hanyu there. Kozukas PCS are fine - and I'd start a riot if Reynolds or Aaron would beat or even match Kozuka in PCS.
His last clean competition was years ago - so what? Which skater actually had a clean competition this season (meaning clean SP + clean LP)? Definitly not Chan, Hanyu, Takahashi, Reynolds... and even if you want to hail Ten for his nearly clean WC this year - that was one competition. The boy just had pretty bad outings in all the other competitions he did this season (and before that...). Let him at least skate a second good event before everyone declares him part of the top men.

And again: Kozuka had a very serious injury this season, that would actually require surgery which he decided to have after Sochi. Having one bad season or fighting a really bad injury has nothing to do with being past ones prime. People just need to jump too conclusions so fast (just as it was with Takahashi after 2011...).

pangtongfan · May 31, 2013

Li'Kitsu said:
Could the 'number 3 PCS' crap stop already? Kozuka's PCS didn't drop at all - when he was clean at worlds 2011 his PCS were 82.26.

You really need to stop referencing 2011. This is not 2011 anymore. Kozuka was not perceived as far behind 2 other Japanese men in 2011, there wasnt even a clear number 1 that year but as the year went on Kozuka gradually took it if anyone was. More to the point though Kozuka also was a much better skater and most of all a much better competitor that year then he is now.

Of course Reynolds probably wont beat Kozuka in PCS (although based on the PCS Reynolds was getting by the end of this year it probably wouldnt be a huge gap) but he doesnt have to. Kozuka would have a huge mountain to match Reynolds TES on a typical day at this point considering how his own technical skills and consistency have waned, and how much content Reynolds packs in his programs with all those quads, which is far more than any man in the World at the moment apart from maybe Fernandez. Note I am far from a Reynolds fan.

Aaron likewise would come out ahead on TES, not in PCS, although his PCS are lower than Reynolds so Kozuka would have a better shot to beat him, but I am expecting Aaron to start to get solid number 1 U.S guy backing and to continue improving next year, seeing his TES and PCS further increase.

People like Chan and Hanyu dont need to do clean competitions. Kozuka at this point does and most times is not even close to producing them. There is no comparision between their current situations. The number of mistakes that right now cant cost Chan a gold medal (although I pray for the sanity of the sport that changes next season, but that is another topic) would cost Kozuka even making the Japanese Olympic team, maybe less mistakes than that.

ForeverFish · May 31, 2013

pangtongfan said:
IMO none of those skaters are capable of a top 5 finish at the Games. The only exception I guess is Murakami and Suzuki who might be in slight danger if Ando returns, and are potentially both capable of top 5.

Ando has to WIN Japanese Nationals to qualify for the Olympic team. I don't think Murakami and Suzuki will be in any danger, seeing as how 1) they've been around, competing, and improving for the past 2 years and 2) Asada is almost a lock for Japanese champion.

pangtongfan · Jun 1, 2013

ForeverFish said:
Ando has to WIN Japanese Nationals to qualify for the Olympic team. I don't think Murakami and Suzuki will be in any danger, seeing as how 1) they've been around, competing, and improving for the past 2 years and 2) Asada is almost a lock for Japanese champion.

Truthfully I dont think Ando has a prayer of making the Olympic team, but I know there are some who feel differently so I gave her a token reference.

gmyers · Jun 1, 2013

But the Japanese federation knows from ando in Turin what can happen when they pick someone who doest do well at nationals. I have no reason to believe the Japanese federation would change their minds but I do think ando could be picked and it's not even as outrageous as it's being made out to be that ando could win Japanese nationals. Like she hasn't beaten all the big threats?

pangtongfan · Jun 1, 2013

I am not interested in getting into another long drawn out conversation on Ando and Sochi. I like most people dont think Ando is any threat to make the Japanese Olympic team this year. A noted few like yourself feel otherwise, hence why I gave a token acknowledgement of the possability out of courtesy to those few individuals, despite my not believing it exists myself. That is all, i wont discuss this dragged out redundant topic any further.

Li'Kitsu · Jun 1, 2013

pangtongfan said:
You really need to stop referencing 2011. This is not 2011 anymore. Kozuka was not perceived as far behind 2 other Japanese men in 2011, there wasnt even a clear number 1 that year but as the year went on Kozuka gradually took it if anyone was. More to the point though Kozuka also was a much better skater and most of all a much better competitor that year then he is now.

When did I say Kozuka was behind the other two japanese men in 2011? I said he was behind Takahashi and Hanyu according to your logic at the GPF 2012 - where his PCS were higher (or equal although he made more mistakes) than in 2011, when he was arguably japanese 1st. So much for 'japanese 3rd'.

Kozuka would have a huge mountain to match Reynolds TES on a typical day at this point considering how his own technical skills and consistency have waned, and how much content Reynolds packs in his programs with all those quads, which is far more than any man in the World at the moment apart from maybe Fernandez. Note I am far from a Reynolds fan.

Aaron likewise would come out ahead on TES, not in PCS, although his PCS are lower than Reynolds so Kozuka would have a better shot to beat him, but I am expecting Aaron to start to get solid number 1 U.S guy backing and to continue improving next year, seeing his TES and PCS further increase.

Really? Reynolds and Aaron have huge jump BVs, but there non-jump elements already leave room for Kozuka to make up some points. And Reynolds would already lose to Kozuka in GOE on those jumps that Kozuka does well. For all the high expactations people have for Reynolds and Aaron in TES, a tough technical panel slaughters Reynolds TES and Aaron first needs to land that additional quad - did he ever land another quad than a 4S until now? And both were beaten quite handily in TES by an injured Hanyu, who nearly didn't receive any +GOE, especially not in the way that he usually does (making it obvious that he was far from his best too).
I know Reynolds pulled it off in 4CC, but with that content he has, I'm not seeing him as more likely to be clean than Kozuka is.

People like Chan and Hanyu dont need to do clean competitions.

Agreed with that. I'd say the same goes for Fernandez and maybe Takahashi - but those 4 are the top men skaters as of now, and a good chunk above everyone else (although too many mistakes take three of them out of the game). That however doesn't mean Aaron or Reynolds will beat Kozuka. I'm not saying Kozuka is a definite favorite for Top 5, but he's one of the skaters to be considered for it - if he's healty, that is.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Jun 1, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Kozuka is clearly past his peak at his point, and as Japanese number 3 he wont get very high PCS either even if he skates well. So even if he makes it to Sochi top 5 would be a real long shot. As for who I would expect to place over him right now: Fernandez, Hanyu, Chan, Takahashi, Reynolds, Aaron, Plushenko, Amodio, Joubert, Ten, I would all pick to place higher right now. Enough of those will finish above him to keep him out of the top 5. Yes if he skated clean he would probably have a decent shot at top 5 depending how others skated, but his last clean competition was years ago now anyway.

I hardly think qualifying for the GPF and winning a gold and silver on the GP qualifies as "past one's peak". If we're talking about his silver performance at Worlds, sure, that might be hard to emulate again... but he's still doing enough to win. His injuries have hampered him, and he's had bad competitions (like Japanese nationals) but I wouldn't count him out of placing in the top 5 at Sochi, if he skates clean. Of the list you have, I think the only ones he would have trouble beating with a clean skate are Chan, Fernandez, Hanyu and maybe Takahashi (who himself is up and down). I still am not entirely sure Ten is the real deal after a single podium result (even if at Worlds), if Plushenko will be healthy/clean, if Amodio/Joubert will deliver strong skates (and even if Joubert's does he won't score high anyways), and if Aaron/Reynolds will improve enough to have clean quads. Obviously the top guys fared poorly at Worlds 2013, but as a comparison, Kozuka's 258 from the GPF or 251 from Skate Canada would have earned a Worlds 2013 bronze.

chuckm · Jun 1, 2013

Reynolds has problems landing clean quads, but Aaron, not so much. Reynolds jumps are smallish and he is slow, and that combination doesn't help when it comes to fully rotating jumps. Aaron is fast and sometimes he's a bit too fast---at Worlds he doubled his second intended quad because he rushed too much. Aaron hasn't been gigged for URs the way Reynolds is.

silverlake22 · Jun 2, 2013

FlattFan said:
Err, who in USA can make top 10 at Olympics and can't medal at US National?
Who in Japan can make top 10 and can't medal at Japan Nat?
Who in Russia can make top 10 and can't place top 2 at Russia Nat?

None. So they don't matter.

No not true at all.

US - ladies who could make the top 10: Wagner, Gold, Gao, Zawadzki, Wang, Czisny, Nagasu, and probably more....only 3 can go.
US - men who could make the top 10: Abbott, Aaron, Lysacek, Dornbush, Farris, Rippon, Miner, Brown, Mahbanoozadeh, Johnson, and probably more...only 2 can go.

Japan - ladies who could make the top 10: Asada, Suzuki, Murakami, Ando, Miyahara if she rotates her jumps...only 3 can go.
Japan - men who could make the top 10: Hanyu, Takahashi, Kozuka, Oda, Mura, Machida if he doesn't bomb, maybe even Murakami...only 3 can go.

Russia - ladies who could make the top 10: Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaya, Sotnikova, Korobeynikova, Leonova, Pogorilaya, Gosviani, vintage Biryukova or Agafonova...only 2 can go.
Russia - men who could make the top 10: Plushenko, Kovtun, Menshov, Vornov, Gatchinski...only 1 can go.

Jammers · Jun 2, 2013

Wang has no experience internationally as a Senior skater so i can't see her getting into the top 10. Miyahara wouldn't have much chance either.

ForeverFish · Jun 2, 2013

I don't think Zawadzki or Gao can make the top ten in Sochi, since they wouldn't have had much of a chance of placing top 10 at 2013 Worlds.

Realistically, the Olympic ladies' top 10 will look something like this:

1. Kim
2. Kostner
3. Asada
4. Wagner
5. Gold
6. Suzuki
7. Murakami
8. Li
9. Sotnikova
10. Osmond

The placements aren't necessarily in the right order, but those are the most likely top 10 -- maybe subtracting Sotnikova and adding Tuktamysheva/Lipnitskaia in her stead. Kim is almost set in stone; Kostner and Asada could forfeit their projected medals if they don't deliver. All 3 Japanese ladies will make the top 10 if no one has a Suzuki-2013 Worlds disaster. Clean, the top two Americans -- Wagner and Gold -- will probably be in the upper-to-middle top 10. Tuktamysheva, Osmond, Sotnikova, and Li will be fighting for placements in the bottom of the top ten.

There isn't much room for a 3rd American lady, since none of Gao, Zawadzki, or Wang can hold up to scrutiny against the top 10 at 2013 Worlds (look at their international PB's for proof). There MIGHT be a chance for Nagasu or Czisny to sneak in there, bumping down one of Li, Sotnikova, or Osmond, but it's unlikely given their recent troubles.

ForeverFish · Jun 2, 2013

A more conservative prediction:

US ladies who can make the top ten: Wagner, Gold, Czisny, Nagasu ... Team will probably be Wagner, Gold, Zawadzki
US men who can make the top ten: Aaron, Farris, Brown, Lysacek, Miner ... Team will probably be Aaron and Abbott

Russian ladies who can make the top ten: Sotnikova, Lipnitskaia, Tuktamysheva ... Team will probably be Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva
Russian men who can make the top ten: Plushenko, Menshov, Gachinski ... Team will probably be Plushenko (if healthy); otherwise, Menshov

Japanese ladies who can make the top ten: Asada, Suzuki, Murakami, Ando ... Team will probably be Asada, Suzuki, Murakami
Japanese men who can make the top ten: Kozuka, Takahashi, Hanyu, Machida, Mura ... Team will probably be Hanyu, Takahashi, Kozuka

silverlake22 · Jun 2, 2013

You don't think Oda can make top 10? Or Dornbush? And not Gao or Zawadzki either? Nagasu and Czisny have been skating worse than those two lately...And I was just being hypothetical with those names I was throwing out, if the stars aligned right and said skaters skated to his/her potential, I could see them making the top 10.

ForeverFish · Jun 2, 2013

No, I don't think Gao or Zawadzki can make the top ten if ALL skaters skate to their potential. If Sotnikova and/or Osmond seriously (and I mean seriously) bomb(s), I could possibly see a case being made for Gao, but also for Tuktamysheva, who has nicer jumps and a PB 12 points higher than Gao's.

Oda doesn't have much of a chance, IMO. His PB would have placed him 5th at 2013 Worlds, but the problem is that he achieved that PB 7 years ago. I know that injury led to him missing out on 2012 Worlds, but this season, he simply failed to qualify. If either Joubert or Brezina has a meltdown at the Olympics (not unlikely), Oda could place in the top ten (if he qualifies with Hanyu, Takahashi, Mura, and Kozuka alo in the mix), but I don't think it's likely given how long he's been out of the big international spotlight (Worlds and 4CC).

prettykeys · Jun 2, 2013

I don't think Ando will win Japanese Nationals, but if she is skating well, I'd wonder if the stronger team would be considered to be Asada, Suzuki, Ando rather than Asada, Suzuki, Murakami (although I'd much prefer Murakami.)

Ladies
1 Yuna Kim
2 Mao Asada
3 Adelina Sotnikova
4 Carolina Kostner - I don't think they will allow her to be on the podium with falls for an Olympics and I don't believe she will be fall-less...but I hope I'm wrong.
5 Gracie Gold
6 Akiko Suzuki
7 Ashley Wagner
8 Zijun Li
9 Kanako Murakami
10 Kaetlyn Osmond

Men
1 Javier Fernandez (It would be cool for Orser to have OGM pupils two Olympics in a row! Fernandez or Hanyu)
2 Patrick Chan
3 Yuzuru Hanyu
4 Denis Ten
5 Daisuke Takahashi
6 Kevin Reynolds
7 Max Aaron
8 Evgeni Plushenko
9 Takahiko Kozuka
10 Brian Joubert

cornell08 · Jun 2, 2013

You can get away with skating through Life is Beautiful moreso than Sleeping Beauty (especially in a country where ballet is practically a religion)-- 5th seems optimistic for Gold imo, barring everyone else' programs being extremely unpalatable.

ForeverFish · Jun 2, 2013

cornell08 said:
You can get away with skating through Life is Beautiful moreso than Sleeping Beauty (especially in a country where ballet is practically a religion)-- 5th seems optimistic for Gold imo, barring everyone else' programs being extremely unpalatable.

Well, Gold WAS sixth at Worlds, and that was with multiple mistakes in both programs and poor choreography.

pangtongfan · Jun 3, 2013

silverlake22 said:
You don't think Oda can make top 10? Or Dornbush? And not Gao or Zawadzki either? Nagasu and Czisny have been skating worse than those two lately...And I was just being hypothetical with those names I was throwing out, if the stars aligned right and said skaters skated to his/her potential, I could see them making the top 10.

International judges dont like Agnes, even those rare cases when she skates decently. Her popularity is completely a U.S thing it seems. She also almost never manages to skate that well in long programs, either Nationals or Internationals, but atleast at Nationals she often does a great short and she doesnt even produce that at Internationals. So if she makes the team (a strong possability given that she was 3rd the last 2 Nationals) hard to see her top 10 at the Games.

Not sure about Gao. I guess if she skates like Skate America she could, or even more if she further improves in her quest for that 3rd spot on the Oly Team and brings back the 3-3. BTW are either Gao or Agnes planning on continuing past this next season, and if so all the way to 2018 or just halfway?

Nagasu and Czisny are a mess in many ways now, but their international history still suggests their best (even if only 10% likely they will produce that if one makes it) is probably more likely to eke into the top 10 somehow than Zawadzki especialy, and probably Gao also. Nonetheless Agnes and Gao are more likely to make the team.

Whichever U.S lady is number 3 though it will probably take some help to make top 10. The top 11 from Worlds this year are extremely strong and unless one has a meltdown like Suzuki did at Worlds all hard to dislodge for all others, let alone 2 or more.

I would concur Oda isnt really likely to make the top 10 if he makes the team. I dont think he is likely to make the team though. Will probably be Mura or Kozuka, and both are capable of a top 10 if they make it, although Kozuka could mistake himself right out of the top 10 and Mura could be shut out of the top 1- even skating well if it is a well skated event. Machida has an outside shot to get that 3rd spot, similar to Oda at this point, but is equally unlikely to make top 10 if he makes it there.

Very early top 10 predictions per discipline for Sochi

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