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Thread: Very early top 10 predictions per discipline for Sochi

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    They didn't seem type of inconsistent skater to me.
    And in 2012-2013 season, Not only them, Even there were many skaters who had better consistency than chan
    I'm curious as to who you think are the "many" skaters who had better consistency than Chan in the 2012-2013 season?

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I think the GPF this season was well-earned, especially considering a tough field, but Takahashi's quad has been rather inconsistent (when he's off, he usually gets nailed for < and <<). You can tell from his jumping technique that he's not entering his jumps with the same spring and snap, which results in under-rotations, particularly on his quad. I'd say 2008-2010 were his prime years, but now his technique is waning a bit. He'll still pull in good results, but when he's off, he's usually off the podium. Artistically though he's certainly at his peak and hopefully continues to be.
    If you're going by jumps, it's strange that you say 2008-2010 are Takahashi's "prime years," given the fact that:

    a) Takahashi did not compete at all during the 2008-2009 season because of injury
    b) Takahashi literally did not successfully land a single ratified quad jump during the entire 2009-2010 season

    Takahashi's always been an up-and-down skater. Your description of him now ("he'll still pull in good results, but when he's off, he's usually off the podium") has basically applied to him for most of his career, including before his injury. I think Li'Kitsu is correct--Takahashi never really had a discernible peak per se. In terms of jumping, maybe you can call his 2008 4CC performance a peak, but he ended up skating poorly and finished off the podium at 2008 Worlds right after. Similar to how he skated very well at this year's Nationals, but ended up skating poorly at 4CC and Worlds.

  3. #48
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    Since I got almost all my Vancouver predictions horrendously wrong in 2009, it'll be amusing to see how bad my predictions are again:

    MEN:
    1) Hanyu
    2) Chan
    3) Fernandez
    4) Takahashi
    5) Amodio

    LADIES:
    1) Kim
    2) Kostner
    3) Asada
    4) Wagner
    5) Gold

    PAIRS:
    1) Volosozhar/Trankov
    2) Savchenko/Szolkowy
    3) Duhamel/Radford
    4) Pang/Tong
    5) Kavaguti/Smirnov

    ICE DANCE:
    1) Davis/White
    2) Virtue/Moir
    3) Bobrova/Soloviev (if P/B aren't 100% healthy next season)
    4) Pechalat/Bourzat (bronze if 100% healthy next season)
    5) Weaver/Poje

  4. #49
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    Ladies:

    Kim
    Kostner
    Asada


    Men:

    Chan
    Fernandez ( or he could pull of an upset to win gold )
    Hanyu

    Pairs:

    Volosozhar/Trankov
    Savchenko/Szolkowy
    Duhamel/Radford


    Dance:

    Davis/White
    Virtue/Moir
    Pechalat/Bourzat

  5. #50
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    Pairs:
    Volosozhar/Trankov or Savchenko/Szolkowy
    Duhamel/Radford


    Ladies:
    Kim
    Asada
    Kostner

    Men:
    Chan
    Hanyu
    Fernandez

    Dance:
    Virtue/Moir
    Davis/White
    Pechalat/Bourzat

  6. #51
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    It's too hard to predict when you don't know who will be on the teams yet...

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    It's too hard to predict when you don't know who will be on the teams yet...
    True, but people who arent pretty much certain to make their own Olympic team are definitely not going to be top 5 at the Games if they do make it.

  8. #53
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    predictions

    1. Hanyu (most capable of the extreme artistically and technically, if he can keep himself healthy . . . needs a more appropriate FS
    choreography than this year though to address his sentimentality and his stamina issues)
    2. Ten (I don't think he is a fluke)
    3. Fernandez (consistency, consistency, consistency)
    4. Chan (seems to be on a trajectory of mentally unraveling with no one putting him back together, but if someone does,
    he could be unbeatable . . . don't see that happening, you can't tell someone who thinks he is perfect that he is not)
    5. Reynolds (sentimental favorite . . . oh, I would cry with joy if he made the podium . . . needs more speed and height though ... hoping he gets it)
    6. Takahashi (he just has to skate from one side of the boards to the other and he is awesome, I don't care if he wins.
    just show up and he is worth a standing ovation, but I would be surprised if he got podium)
    7. Aaron (he has beautiful energy, love to watch him, but his skating has to lose that "bull in the china shop" feel to it)
    8. Brezina (maybe he can have a "Ten" moment, but his choice of choreography is consistently just not right for his skating)
    9. Amodio (he would do better without Morosov being his Svengali, but that will never happen);
    10. Joubert (hope he does something artistic . . . great to watch)

  9. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    True, but people who arent pretty much certain to make their own Olympic team are definitely not going to be top 5 at the Games if they do make it.
    Except for the countries with stacked fields like Japan, USA, and Russia...

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    Except for the countries with stacked fields like Japan, USA, and Russia...
    Err, who in USA can make top 10 at Olympics and can't medal at US National?
    Who in Japan can make top 10 and can't medal at Japan Nat?
    Who in Russia can make top 10 and can't place top 2 at Russia Nat?

    None. So they don't matter.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Err, who in USA can make top 10 at Olympics and can't medal at US National?
    Who in Japan can make top 10 and can't medal at Japan Nat?
    Who in Russia can make top 10 and can't place top 2 at Russia Nat?

    None. So they don't matter.
    I disagree. In current form Eliza, Julia, and Adelina are all capable of making top 10 (though they might not depending how they skate on a given day they are capable of it) and one of them isn't going to place top 2 at Russian Nats. USA I agree with you- our only viable possibilities for top 10 at this time are Ashley and Gracie and they will be top 2.

  12. #57
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    There are some skaters who are in jeapordy to miss their respective Olympics teams who could come top 10 at the Games if they were to make it, but might not make it, and my thread was top 10 so I see the point.

    However there is nobody who is not a virtual lock for their own Olympic team who has a realistic chance at top 5 IMO.

    The best skaters who are fighting for spots on their teams and not a lock would be:

    U.S- Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao, Lysacek (if he even returns), Abbott, Miner, Hubbel & Donahue, Shibutanis
    Japan- Ando (if she returns), Oda, Kozuka, Mura, Machida
    Russia- Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, several other Russian ladies

    IMO none of those skaters are capable of a top 5 finish at the Games. The only exception I guess is Murakami and Suzuki who might be in slight danger if Ando returns, and are potentially both capable of top 5.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post

    However there is nobody who is not a virtual lock for their own Olympic team who has a realistic chance at top 5 IMO.

    The best skaters who are fighting for spots on their teams and not a lock would be:

    U.S- Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao, Lysacek (if he even returns), Abbott, Miner, Hubbel & Donahue, Shibutanis
    Japan- Ando (if she returns), Oda, Kozuka, Mura, Machida
    Russia- Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, several other Russian ladies

    IMO none of those skaters are capable of a top 5 finish at the Games. The only exception I guess is Murakami and Suzuki who might be in slight danger if Ando returns, and are potentially both capable of top 5.
    I think Sotnikova is capable of a top 5 finish were she able to skate cleanly. If she is able to skate cleanly is perhaps a different question, but something akin to her Euros performances might get her there especially if she had a little help.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    There are some skaters who are in jeapordy to miss their respective Olympics teams who could come top 10 at the Games if they were to make it, but might not make it, and my thread was top 10 so I see the point.

    However there is nobody who is not a virtual lock for their own Olympic team who has a realistic chance at top 5 IMO.

    The best skaters who are fighting for spots on their teams and not a lock would be:

    U.S- Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao, Lysacek (if he even returns), Abbott, Miner, Hubbel & Donahue, Shibutanis
    Japan- Ando (if she returns), Oda, Kozuka, Mura, Machida
    Russia- Lipnitskaia, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, several other Russian ladies

    IMO none of those skaters are capable of a top 5 finish at the Games. The only exception I guess is Murakami and Suzuki who might be in slight danger if Ando returns, and are potentially both capable of top 5.
    I would say Kozuka and Sotnikova are capable of a top 5 with clean skates... maybe Mura, Oda, Lipnitskaia and Tuktamysheva if they max out their technical content.

  15. #60
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Why would Kozuka not be able to make the top 5? I can't count 5 skaters out there who are better skaters than him. (Actually, if one wants to add Plush, it's probably exactly 5. But I'm still not sure Plush will be able to skate at the Olympics...).
    If I'm not mistaken, his TES from 2011 worlds LP (~98) is still the highest ever given under IJS - with one quad no less. You can argue about how realistic it is for him to skate well, but a clean Kozuka will very, very likely make the Top 5. His 2011-12 season may not have been very good, but he came back to make the GPF in 2012 and just missed worlds because of his injury. Hopefully the injury won't affect his olympic season too much, that's the only reason I actually think he's not a lock for the team (as much as I love Mura).

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