Kozuka is clearly past his peak at his point, and as Japanese number 3 he wont get very high PCS either even if he skates well. So even if he makes it to Sochi top 5 would be a real long shot. As for who I would expect to place over him right now: Fernandez, Hanyu, Chan, Takahashi, Reynolds, Aaron, Plushenko, Amodio, Joubert, Ten, I would all pick to place higher right now. Enough of those will finish above him to keep him out of the top 5. Yes if he skated clean he would probably have a decent shot at top 5 depending how others skated, but his last clean competition was years ago now anyway.