GP assigments 2013/2014

tulosai · Jun 4, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
excuse me but Skate Canada is notorious and known as the most corrupted Grand Prix, Osmond is a lock for GP medal in "home ice" even if she falls multiple times in her LP
if Kim falls twice Osmond might even have a chance to win gold over Kim Yuna, havent we already forgotten Fraudelent Chan's gold medal at Londons Worlds

A GP medal for Osmond outside Canada though is another different ball game
she tends to panic and falls multiple times as she probably knows her inflated marks wont apply at NHK or CoR

I'll eat dirt if Osmond doesn't medal at SC even with her 2 falls in LP

I'm no Osmond fan, but I don't think you are being entirely fair. I don't think she panics because she's not on Canadian ice. You may or may not recall this, but Worlds was in Canada. I was also puzzled by her SC result last year, but there is no need to talk crap about her and why she falls, and there is no point in ignoring her strengths as a skater. Like Gold she has a long way to go before she is fully there, but what's wrong with that?

Moment · Jun 4, 2013

Patrick Chan does not receive high scores depending on where he competes. He always receives the highest PCS everywhere.

chuckm · Jun 4, 2013

Osmond won gold last year with a flawed FS because (a) the competition wasn't all that strong and (b) the top competitors put in sub-par efforts. It's a far different picture this year. She is facing the reigning World and Olympic champion, skaters like Suzuki and Gold (whom she beat at SC 2012) who have beaten her at subsequent meetings last season, and the fierce and determined Lipnitskaia.

True, Osmond will have a screaming crowd behind her, but that won't help her if she falters while her competitors bring it.

AlexRus · Jun 4, 2013

chuckm said:
Sissy KRICK is GERMAN, not American!

Mea culpa! Sorry!

American is Assistant Technical Specialist Mr. David KIRBY.

I don't understand how did I make this mistake.

Sissy KRICK is, yes, Geman. Hi-level specialist, she was Technical Controller at Olympics-2010, Men.

AlexRus · Jun 4, 2013

chuckm said:
Osmond beat Gold at SC last year, but Gold beat Osmond at the next 3 meetings, and the score gap got bigger at each meeting:

4CC: Gold 166.66, Osmond 159.38
Worlds: Gold 184.25, Osmond 176.82
WTT: Gold 188.03, Osmond 164.85

Ice is slippery, and anything can happen, but I don't think Gold is going to revert to her SC 2012 form.

Yes. Gold was not so good after JrWorlds-2012, from WTT-2012 to SP of Nationals-2013.
From FS Nationals-2013 to now she is much better.
It looks that she solved her jumping unstability problem.

AlexRus · Jun 4, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
excuse me but Skate Canada is notorious and known as the most corrupted Grand Prix, Osmond is a lock for GP medal in "home ice" even if she falls multiple times in her LP

No. Fall was only one, at 3Lz (2nd jumping element).
Video is availiable at Youtube, so anybody can see how many falls were.

Jammers · Jun 4, 2013

AlexRus said:
Yes. Gold was not so good after JrWorlds-2012, from WTT-2012 to SP of Nationals-2013.
From FS Nationals-2013 to now she is much better.
It looks that she solved her jumping unstability problem.

There was never any problem with Gracie's jumping it was nerves that were her undoing. When she rushes she gets sloppy and makes mistakes but by the end of the season she was understanding how to compete against the big girls.

AlexRus · Jun 4, 2013

Moment said:
Patrick Chan does not receive high scores depending on where he competes. He always receives the highest PCS everywhere.

His highest score (ant highest score at all of any skater at ISU competition) was at Worlds-2011 at Moscow.
I remember that skating very well - it was really excellent.
Ant it was seen just afier he finished skating - before judges' scores, before skating of all 5 others in warm-up - we see the champion.

AlexRus · Jun 4, 2013

Jammers said:
There was never any problem with Gracie's jumping it was nerves that were her undoing.

Yes, problem was nerves (as at most if unstable jumps).
Her jumping techique is good enough.

ForeverFish · Jun 4, 2013

I think Gold will want to build on her last performance at SC; she will likely overtake Osmond, Korpi, and Lipnitskaia. The battle for silver and bronze, I think, will be between Gold's TES and Suzuki's PCS. Kim, of course, will win unless she forgets to show up.

tulosai · Jun 4, 2013

Maybe we could make a predictions thread like we did last year. Of course, it is a bit early since there will be WD's.

PolymerBob · Jun 4, 2013

tulosai said:
..... Of course, it is a bit early since there will be WD's.

I hope Evan makes it to Skate America. That should be really interesting. :popcorn:

tulosai · Jun 4, 2013

Ok so I am late but I am ready to talk about my thoughts beyond just OMG Mirai squeeee.

I am glad Elene G. got 2 GP's. I really love her and her skating even though I wish she could hold it together better in competition.

I agree with others that Julia L. is going to have a rougher time of it this year due to a stronger field generally and stronger fields at her events specifically. I do also wonder if puberty will have hit her. She will not be done either way- it is clear she is a fighter and if she has to fight through a few seasons of puberty she will. Her technique (other than 2a which is disasterous) is actually quite solid- some people try to claim it's not but can never say why except for that she doesn't jump high. She jumps high enough to rotate triple triples; I do not doubt she will jump high enough to keep rotating triples (though she may lose the triple triple, certainly).

Ashley is in a good position; Carolina and Yuna are in good positions (like that's hard) Mao (as others have said) is in an iffier position but still good. I am intrigued by where Radionova will fit in. I could see it going either way.

Gao is going to have it rough; Tukt is going to have it rough but might be able to pull through. Unlikely though. Sotnikova is in a better position than Tukt but will have to be clean. She could easily be 2nd at CoC with a clean skate; easily 3rd at TEB if clean. We will see.

Sad Polina K only has one spot as of now. Glad we will get to see Joshi.

I join those who think SA is being held for Alissa if she is in shape to compete.

tulosai · Jun 4, 2013

PolymerBob said:
I hope Evan makes it to Skate America. That should be really interesting.

Oh the WD's and additions are almost more fascinating and fun for me than the original lists. All the disappointment and heartache and happiness and elation...

kwanatic · Jun 4, 2013

tulosai said:
She jumps high enough to rotate triple triples; I do not doubt she will jump high enough to keep rotating triples (though she may lose the triple triple, certainly).

That's what I'm thinking. She's grown quite a bit in the last two years and it appears as though her jumps are coming through the transition well enough. I do think she's lost some speed, particularly in her 3-3. She her first triple doesn't carry much speed on the landing and she really has to muscle the 2nd jump...I don't think that will hold up much longer as she continues to grow.

venlac · Jun 4, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
excuse me but Skate Canada is notorious and known as the most corrupted Grand Prix, Osmond is a lock for GP medal in "home ice" even if she falls multiple times in her LP
if Kim falls twice Osmond might even have a chance to win gold over Kim Yuna, havent we already forgotten Fraudelent Chan's gold medal at Londons Worlds

i dont worry about it
she probably will not give chance enough - like skate with twice falls in one program or more than 5 mistakes.. - to Canada federation and osmond...

gmyers · Jun 4, 2013

kwanatic said:
That's what I'm thinking. She's grown quite a bit in the last two years and it appears as though her jumps are coming through the transition well enough. I do think she's lost some speed, particularly in her 3-3. She her first triple doesn't carry much speed on the landing and she really has to muscle the 2nd jump...I don't think that will hold up much longer as she continues to grow.

you saw her move to 2a-3t and 2a-3t-2t - in the SP she needs a 3/3 so finding a 3/3 that works for her there could help. Even if it generates auto deductions like ur or edge call

ForeverFish · Jun 4, 2013

kwanatic said:
That's what I'm thinking. She's grown quite a bit in the last two years and it appears as though her jumps are coming through the transition well enough. I do think she's lost some speed, particularly in her 3-3. She her first triple doesn't carry much speed on the landing and she really has to muscle the 2nd jump...I don't think that will hold up much longer as she continues to grow.

Julia has grown vertically, but without any significant body changes -- she's still very lean and leggy, like the junior Sotnikova. The situation may be different now that she's really getting the full attack of puberty for the first time; Tukt was in the same position a year ago, and had to rework most of her jumps as a result of a broader frame. However, Tukt's jump technique has always been solid and dependable; I can't say the same for Julia.

I don't think Julia will lose her triples, but backend triples will likely prove more difficult for her, at least until she adjusts to her new body. She'll probably find that rotating quickly won't cut it anymore. Another skater who could have similar issues is Zijun Li, who is extremely slender and may or may not be approaching weight gain and body changes.

ForeverFish · Jun 4, 2013

gmyers said:
you saw her move to 2a-3t and 2a-3t-2t - in the SP she needs a 3/3 so finding a 3/3 that works for her there could help. Even if it generates auto deductions like ur or edge call

If she *knows* she's going to receive < or "e" on her 3-3, it would be better not to attempt it in the first place; she'll get deductions anyway. She can get more points from a clean 3F-2T-2T with positive GOE than a UR'ed or wrong-edge 3F-3T (see Adelina Sotnikova for proof -- her 3Lz-3T in the WTT SP was downgraded and received -1.10 GOE). At that point, a clean 3Lz-2T would have given her more points.

ForeverFish · Jun 4, 2013

chuckm said:
Osmond won gold last year with a flawed FS because (a) the competition wasn't all that strong and (b) the top competitors put in sub-par efforts. It's a far different picture this year. She is facing the reigning World and Olympic champion, skaters like Suzuki and Gold (whom she beat at SC 2012) who have beaten her at subsequent meetings last season, and the fierce and determined Lipnitskaia.

True, Osmond will have a screaming crowd behind her, but that won't help her if she falters while her competitors bring it.

I think Osmond loses focus, especially during the FS, which translates into falls/pops. In some cases, the screaming crowd can even be a distraction that breaks her concentration with the program.

Osmond didn't beat Suzuki by a whole lot at 2012 SC; other skaters who would have been her competitors, like Murakami, Tuktamysheva, and Gold, all had various issues that prevented them from skating their best. Throw Yuna Kim and a stronger Suzuki/Gold into the mix, and everything changes. Osmond lost to Gold at 4CC, Worlds, and WTT, and to Suzuki at 4CC and WTT -- by large margins. I think she can still win a medal at 2013 SC if others falter, but so far, the ONLY international competition where she's shown better-than-average performances is 2012 SC.

GP assigments 2013/2014

tulosai

Moment

chuckm

AlexRus

AlexRus

AlexRus

Jammers

AlexRus

AlexRus

ForeverFish

tulosai

PolymerBob

tulosai

tulosai

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!

venlac

gmyers

ForeverFish

ForeverFish

ForeverFish

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