What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean
If at the Olympics Kim, Asada, and Kostner all skate cleanly what would the order of finish between the three have been. It is interesting as before Vancouver nobody would have asked this question. All 3 skating cleanly at that event would have always been Kim >>>>>> Asada >>>>> Kostner (with probably several others above Kostner in that scenario too). Yet despite Kim's dominant win at Worlds, it seems the general feeling this time around is it would be much closer in that hypothetical scenario than Vancouver ever would have been. It is also believed it is unlikely we will even see Asada or Kostner skate cleanly to find out, so the only place this scenario might play out is in the hypothetical discussions about it anyway, but just in the unlikely event it were to occur what would the final order of finish of the podium be this time around.
Of these three it is clear Asada would receive by far the lowest PCS and GOE of the trio if all three went clean, yet her planned base value is quite a bit higher isnt it. So that would still make it close.
BTW the other skaters need no consideration in this thread as if Kim, Kostner, and Asada were to all skate cleanly, nobody else woud have a hope to medal at the Sochi Olympics even with 9 triples, so the hypothetical thread title shuts out all other skates automatically and they need no discussing in this thread, only these three (eg- please no crazy Sotnikova fans saying well what if Adelina skated cleanly too, lol).
I believe Kim would still eke out the win, and Asada would eke out 2nd place over Kostner only due to the much higher base value. I do believe at the 2013 Worlds Kostner had a better shot than she will have at the 2014 Olympis, since she has given up her status as World Champion.
I think it depends what Asada attempts. We know what Yuna and Kostner will try. I think Mao would win if everyone is clean because of her base value but Yuna can hit her programs under pressure while Mao typically doesn't come close to being clean.
Under clean I understand: no UR/falls/edge problems
When all three went clean, I think it woud turn out: 1. Mao 2. Kostner 3. Yuna, assuming they keep their current layout and don't add/cancel jumps or spins.
Mao has the highest base value of these three, and although her skating skill may not be as good as Caro's or Yuna's, her spins, footwork sequence, delicate and elegant presentation will enable her big PCS. But this require her going clean, becuase if she doesn't her PCS also won't be as generous as needed to win over Kostner or Yuna. But if she does go clean, that would be awesome, since it's an 8 triple-programm performed by a unusually graceful skater.
Caro has a loop in her repertoire, while attemping 3flip-3toe, while Yuna doesn't do the loop, but does 3lutz-3toe. They both get positive GOE for spins and footwork, therefore because of the loop, Caro's going to get the edge over Yuna.
But I reckon Mao and Caro going completly clean as very unlikely. Mao has edge problems on her lutz, as she flutzes, while Caro has never skated a long programm cleanly yet. These problems will not disappear magically, as they're very hard to change. More likely, what will happen if there are no visible errors?
This is not going to happen.
What a mind-blowing question! And though Mathman is probably right that it won't happen, we came really, really close to this in Vancouver: a first flight with no falls. So we can dream, can't we?
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
I suspect Kim would still win, and that wouldn't be a bad thing, because it would cement her as one of the greatest skaters ever, or maybe the greatest. Of course I also have a hope that Asada can pull it off, because I'd love to see her earn a gold for the extraordinary artistry and flow of her skating. But if these three ladies are at the top of their game (which would be an exhilarating experience for fans of any or all of them), I think I can safely say that I wouldn't be disappointed at any of them winning. Golly! It would be like watching three miracles at once.
Asada would dominate in BV, followed by Kim, then Kostner.
However, Kim's PCS would be through the stratosphere. Then Kostner, then Asada (by at least a few points).
So, if all three were clean (how wonderful would that be?), then I predict the podium to go Kim (by a narrow margin) > Asada > Kostner.
In 2013 WC, PCS gap between kim and carolina was total-3 points(it's same with gap between Carolina and Mao), even if carolina had falls and kim had clean programs, difference was not huge
Originally Posted by ForeverFish
I think if two go clean, judges will give kim the PCS a 1 point? more than Carolina
Yuna skated cleanly in Vancouver and received 71 points in PCS. In London, she received 73. The upward trend may continue as the Olympic season approaches.
Originally Posted by venlac
Do not forget that PC's really depend on the program being skated.
two cleans at Olympic, maybe it is the dream of every skaters... and I know it is unlikely to happen
but if I just imagine, Maybe mao asada > yuna kim > carolina kostner?
By the way, I'm really, really want to see perfect 2 cleans by Mao before she retiring and I hope she will be able to make it in Sochi
I think that will be Asada with Gold, Caro with silver and Yuna with bronze. But, I am thinking about the three being flawless and skating very clean, up to their potential.
Mao won't skate clean, sorry. I know this may sound harsh but it's true. This year's 4CCs performances are as good as she can get.
There is a hypothetical situation Carolina skating both her short and free, in terms of individual elements. She has proven she can nail elements with good technique. However, things go different if the whole skate is involved. The first half of Boléro is basically her skating through from element to element, pulling out big tricks afraid of messing up the whole thing. She does not fully take control of her whole performance in the way Yuna does.
Still, I would give the benefit of the doubt to Carolina, however slim I think her chances of skating both segments clean.
I consider that Mao skating clean is easier to happen than Caro.