What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean | Page 12 | Golden Skate

What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

Moment

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 18, 2013
Still doesn't mean it was an accurate call. Her flip at Worlds SP was fine. Mistakes happen from tech callers. :p
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Hehe. The system is not ready to deal with Sport. It's more about politics. And that witch won't allow some Russian new baby to take gold. Disgusting.

But then again, it is not easy to see whose political interests are served by elevating Kim over the favorites of the movers and shakers of the ISU (Russia, Canada, USA, Japan, Cinquanta, Dore, Piseev, Gailhaguet, etc.)

About whether Mao's two programs at worlds could have made made up the huge 22 point gap between her and Yuna, I think the point is that if Mao had gone perfectly clean with her intended content (a 5F+3T instead of 3F<, etc.), then her GOEs and PCSs would also magically have jumped up into the Kim range. There's nothing like a huge triple-triple, or a completely rotated and perfectly landed triple Axel, to make judges suddenly take note of how wonderful your choreography and interpretation are. :)

But that didn't happen, which is the reason why people who like reality (ugh) better than fantasy :)rock:) are staying away from this thread. :yes:
 
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let`s talk

Match Penalty
Joined
Sep 10, 2009
But then again, it is not easy to see whose political interests are served by elevating Kim over the favorites of the movers and shakers of the ISU (Russia, Canada, USA, Japan, Cinquanta, Dore, Piseev, Gailhaguet, etc.)
In the context where my reply came from it wasn't about Kim only. It was the general rather disrespective idea that podium in Sochi, and gold especially, is reserved for those three, those who are in the title of this thread.
(a 4F+3T instead of 3F<, etc.),

But that didn't happen, which is the reason why people who like reality (ugh) better than fantasy :)rock:) are staying away from this thread. :yes:
Wait, you are saying that you need to have a quad combo to beat Yuna, who doesn't have even 3A, not saying of a quad. Jesus...
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
No need to be upset. I assure you there are enough fools among the rich. Money doesn't always come from intelligence. Sometimes it's just luck. Or in case of fs- corrupted judging that made someone a fake Queen with millions followed.

My money is on Max Aaron. In his recent on line interview with Jennifer Kirk and David Leash he mentioned that his real estate portfolio is doing quite well, thank you, and he expects to do even better as he gains experience in timing the market. :laugh:

In the context where my reply came from it wasn't about Kim only. It was the general rather disrespective idea that podium in Sochi, and gold especially, is reserved for those three, those who are in the title of this thread.
Wait, you are saying that you need to have a quad combo to beat Yuna, who doesn't have even 3A, not saying of a quad. Jesus...

Oops. I have edited my post appropriately.
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
ForeverFish said:
Now, for the FS:

3A: 10.07 (2013 4CC)
3F: 6.10 (2012 NHK)
3Lz: 6.00 (she hasn't yet landed one cleanly this season, so let's just give her the BV with 0 GOE)
3Lo+2Lo: 7.50 (2013 Worlds)
FCCoSp: 4.50 (2013 Worlds)
2A+3T: 9.54 (2013 Worlds)
3S: 5.52 (2013 Worlds)
CCoSp: 4.50 (2012 CoC)
3F+2Lo+2Lo: 10.37 (2012 GPF)
FCSp: 3.77 (2012 GPF)
StSq: 5.80 (2012 NHK)
ChSq: 3.70 (2012 GPF, 2013 4CC)
Total TES: 77.37

Actually, Mao is going for 3F-3Lo and a solo 3Lo, no 3Lo-2Lo :)
So instead of 3F = 6.1 and 3Lo-2Lo = 7.5, I'd say it's 3Lo = 6.4 (GPF2012) and 3F-3Lo< = 8.5 (4CC). So her TES is about 1.3 points higher, and her overall score is 224.09. And if Mao would get that 3-3 ratified, it would be 10.4 in BV alone, so again, about 2 points higher.
All of that without thinking about how her PCS would rise if she was clean :)
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
Thank you very much for your analysis Jiggs and ForeverFish. :) Nicely done!

I'm interested to see what Ven (or is it Venlac? Are these the same person??) has to say about the results.

Hypothetically, if Mao had skated perfectly at worlds this year, she'd have won and Yu-Na and Carolina would have been neck and neck. With Carolina's hypothetical score of 217.20 and Yu-Na's 218.31 (a difference of only 1.11 points) it's very clear that 2nd place would be a complete toss up and would come down to who the judges preferred more on that night.


So, again citing math as proof for this hypothetical, a perfect Carolina and perfect Mao have scoring potential equal to and better than Yu-Na. That's the hypothetical. The reality is neither Mao or Carolina are known for skating flawlessly through two programs. I will not say it's impossible for them to skate cleanly...I will say it's highly improbable.

But in some alternate universe Mao is a 3-time world champ and Yu-Na and Carolina were 2nd and 3rd (or 3rd and 2nd) this year at worlds. :)
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Thank you very much for your analysis Jiggs and ForeverFish. :) Nicely done!

I'm interested to see what Ven (or is it Venlac? Are these the same person?) has to say about the results.

No. Not so sure about venlac, karlon, and the mysterous (which side is he really on? :laugh: ) torren, though. ;)
 

chloepoco

Medalist
Joined
Nov 1, 2009
Read it again. I specifically say it's not illegal. But Japanese skaters benefit from the homefield advantage when major competitions are hosted in their country. That's not available to skaters from small federations.

There must be something wrong with my reading comprehension then. You started off saying politics and corrupt judging have never helped Yuna....etc etc...who did they help. And your third sentence names Mao. I interpreted that as you saying politics and corrupt judging have helped Mao.

But whatever...
 

cooper

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
jaylee = voice of reason.

when you start dragging, calling some fair yuna fans Yuna fans it means one thing, you don't have a good argument and pretending you know it all. oh well. blame yuna for winning. blame yuna why mao is re-working with her jumps. blame yuna why the russian wonderbabies had growth spurts. blame yuna why she won her 2nd world title for back to back clean performances. blame yuna for everything. hahaha. must be painful to see someone like her taking away from your favorite skater.
 

cooper

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
There must be something wrong with my reading comprehension then. You started off saying politics and corrupt judging have never helped Yuna....etc etc...who did they help. And your third sentence names Mao. I interpreted that as you saying politics and corrupt judging have helped Mao.

But whatever...

well.. they helped her when she won NHK. :p
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Actually, Mao is going for 3F-3Lo and a solo 3Lo, no 3Lo-2Lo :)
So instead of 3F = 6.1 and 3Lo-2Lo = 7.5, I'd say it's 3Lo = 6.4 (GPF2012) and 3F-3Lo< = 8.5 (4CC). So her TES is about 1.3 points higher, and her overall score is 224.09. And if Mao would get that 3-3 ratified, it would be 10.4 in BV alone, so again, about 2 points higher.
All of that without thinking about how her PCS would rise if she was clean :)

Yep. I think I based it off of Mao's program at 2013 Worlds, where the landing of the 3F prevented her from attempting the 3Lo.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Wow.....this thread. :disapp:

So in the interest of everyone who wants to discuss the topic on hand...my opinion.

What is really comes down to is two things, even if a skater goes completely clean (i.e. no URs or edge calls etc.)

1.) GOE. That is one of two X factors. A big reason Yuna won by such a huge margin in 2010 (and this year's World) is because of those high GOE.

Let's look at GOE for the competition from the skaters

Yuna
SP 5.16
FS: 16.51
TOTAL: 21.67

Mao
SP: 2.55
FS: 3.66
TOTAL: 6.21


Carolina:
SP: 4.08
FS: 10.59
TOTAL: 14.67


2.) PCS. While there are bullet points for this, let's face it it can fluctuate greatly. Let's look at what they scored at Worlds.

Yuna
SP: 33.18
FS: 73.61

Mao
SP: 32.40
FS: 68.41

Carolina:
SP: 33.85
FS: 70.63


Carolina went from being slightly ahead of Yuna in the SP to being nearly three points behind Yuna in the FS. That might have to do with the fact that Yuna skated a clean program and Carolina did it.

So based on this results, if I were to make an educated prediction my podium with all there skaters clean would be:

Yuna
Carolina
Mao

Here's why
1.) Yuna clearly has an edge on GOE and frequently gets high amounts of GOE. Even if Mao came in with a higher BV (which she had at the Worlds FS), Yuna easily can make up for it in GOE.
2.) Carolina holds her own with PCS and also scores a decent amount of GOE. I think it falls a bit short of what Yuna does and combined that with less (relatively) difficult program content, I don't think she could make up the difference.
3.) Mao's GOE is quite poor relative to the other two and she doesn't get (currently has high PCS). I think even if she was clean and executed everything perfectly her GOE would be well below Yuna and Carolinas. Now if she does the difficult BV, then maybe she has a chance of moving up. But I also want to consider under what conditions she would be clean and I really don't think it would be by executing a difficult BV.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
2.) PCS. While there are bullet points for this, let's face it it can fluctuate greatly. Let's look at what they scored at Worlds.

Yuna
FS: 73.61

Mao
FS: 68.41

Carolina:
FS: 70.63
Wasn't this three skaters' PCS in FS in 2013 world championship? At that event, Only kim had clean program, and Carolina had fall and a few mistakes, Asada had several mistakes.
So, if all go clean, carolina and Asada's PCS would be higher. and difference in PCS will be small
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Wasn't this three skaters' PCS in FS in 2013 world championship? At that event, Only kim had clean program, and Carolina had fall and a few mistakes, Asada had several mistakes.
So, if all go clean, carolina and Asada's PCS would be higher. and difference in PCS will be small

Maybe, but I don't think it would make up for the massive GOE advantage that Yuna currently has.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
What is really comes down to is two things, even if a skater goes completely clean (i.e. no URs or edge calls etc.)

1.) GOE. That is one of two X factors. A big reason Yuna won by such a huge margin in 2010 (and this year's World) is because of those high GOE.

Let's look at GOE for the competition from the skaters

Yuna
SP 5.16
FS: 16.51
TOTAL: 21.67

Mao
SP: 2.55
FS: 3.66
TOTAL: 6.21


Carolina:
SP: 4.08
FS: 10.59
TOTAL: 14.67

This is a really bad way to present it.
You cannot look at GOE in a lump sum and declare one has better GOE than the other so and so.
For example, Caro's GOE in the SP is 1.08 behind Yuna.
Her 3T-3T carried a -1.7 GOE. If she got 0 GOE on her 3T-3T and Yuna got 0 GOE on her 3F, Caro's GOE would beat Yuna's GOE.

So base on this, how can you say if both are clean, Yuna's GOE is higher?

That's like saying when Usain Bolt is injured, half the field beat him by 20 sec. So when they are all injured free, half the field still beat him because they were 20 sec faster.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
This is a really bad way to present it.
You cannot look at GOE in a lump sum and declare one has better GOE than the other so and so.
For example, Caro's GOE in the SP is 1.08 behind Yuna.
Her 3T-3T carried a -1.7 GOE. If she got 0 GOE on her 3T-3T and Yuna got 0 GOE on her 3F, Caro's GOE would beat Yuna's GOE.

So base on this, how can you say if both are clean, Yuna's GOE is higher?

That's like saying when Usain Bolt is injured, half the field beat him by 20 sec. So when they are all injured free, half the field still beat him because they were 20 sec faster.


My point is that Yuna currently has such a huge buffer that even if clean, I think Carolina wouldn't be able to make the difference entirely, though she would be quite close.

As for the SP, if Yuna was clean and didn't get an edge call, she would have received postive GOE, not zero. So I still think that if both were clean in the SP, Yuna would edge her out (barely).
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
There must be something wrong with my reading comprehension then. You started off saying politics and corrupt judging have never helped Yuna....etc etc...who did they help. And your third sentence names Mao. I interpreted that as you saying politics and corrupt judging have helped Mao.

But whatever...
I believe Jaylee was talking about how politics helped Mao with respect to the rule changes allowing the 3A, a jump only Mao is currently performing in the SP contrary to standard ISU rule changes and also the reduction in what the absolute GOE is (+3 = +2.1 for triples except 3A)
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
Also reduce factor of GOE, raise up base value of 3A and 3Loop, 70% rule etc etc. not only positive to Mao, but also very opposed to kim
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
Maybe, but I don't think it would make up for the massive GOE advantage that Yuna currently has.

You might want to check out Jigg and ForeverFish's posts where they break down the scoring (including GOEs I believe)

Carolina's hypothetical clean programs by Jiggs: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...m-all-go-clean&p=746757&viewfull=1#post746757

Mao's hypothetical clean programs by ForeverFish: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...m-all-go-clean&p=746810&viewfull=1#post746810
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
How clean kostner is able to win clean kim?
base value? she lost to kim. GOE? she shouldn't receive more GOE than kim. PCS? maybe she will receive 1~2 lower than kim.
I think it can not be even tough competitive
 
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