What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

Layfan said:

oh, for sure. But I did think that getting GOE on the most difficult jumps (3lutz combo for instance) would give you a bigger advantage than bit GOEs on steps and spiral and even spins. This is hardly an area where I'm an expert, but I'm surprised to hear that it's being assumed that Asada would have the highest GOE. I know she tries the difficult jumps - I love her for it (though I love her more for her exquisite style) _ but I didn't think she really had big jumps and I though she had edge/rotation problems.

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I think that we should not see the elements isolated. We have to see base value and the potential to get high GOE.

Now, Mao has the highest base value, Carolina comes second and Yuna comes third.

But, Yuna can get more goe than both.

One thing that Yuna fans have been trying to make happen is that she repeat the flip, instead of the salchow. This would make her have two 3Lz and two 3F. But, the difference between the flip and the salchow is 1,1 point.

Moment said:

Mao won't skate clean, sorry. I know this may sound harsh but it's true. This year's 4CCs performances are as good as she can get.

There is a hypothetical situation Carolina skating both her short and free, in terms of individual elements. She has proven she can nail elements with good technique. However, things go different if the whole skate is involved. The first half of Boléro is basically her skating through from element to element, pulling out big tricks afraid of messing up the whole thing. She does not fully take control of her whole performance in the way Yuna does.

Still, I would give the benefit of the doubt to Carolina, however slim I think her chances of skating both segments clean.

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I think possibility that can have two clean programs would be yuna>mao>caro
Because I don't remember Caro has perfect clean LP...

mateusp1 said:

I think that we should not see the elements isolated. We have to see base value and the potential to get high GOE.

Now, Mao has the highest base value, Carolina comes second and Yuna comes third.

But, Yuna can get more goe than both.

One thing that Yuna fans have been trying to make happen is that she repeat the flip, instead of the salchow. This would make her have two 3Lz and two 3F. But, the difference between the flip and the salchow is 1,1 point.

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No. In terms of base value, Mao is the highest, Yuna is second, Carolina is third

In 2013 WC, mao asada's planned base value was 73, yuna's was 61, carolina's was 58

This thing about making a huge big combo can help. But, not in all cases.


For example, I saw somewhere that some people wanted Agnes to try a 3Lz+3T in the SP. For the solo jump, it would have to be the salchow, since Agnes "lips" and she does not have the loop. 3Lz+3T and 3S would give 0,1 more of base value than 3T+3T and 3Lz. Also, Agnes can get more GOE for her 3T+3T and 3Lz than for her 3S. In her case, changing the SP layout would not help.

The same goes for Caro. Some people were trying to make her perform a solo Flip in the SP. The difference for flip and the loop is 0,2. Also, the solo flip would require steps before and Carolina's flip is telegraphed. So, this also would not work. A change that, in my point of view, would work for Caro is change the 3T+3T for a 3F+3T, considering that the difference between both is 1,2 point(this can mean a lot in the SP), Caro's flip is one of her best jumps and she also does not make transitions before her SP's combo.

venlac said:

In terms of base value, Mao is the highest, Yuna is second, Carolina is third

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Yuna:

3Lz+3T - 10,1
3F - 5,3
FCCoSp4 - 3,5
3S - 4,2
StSq4 - 3,9
3Lz x - 6,6
2A+2T+2Lo x - 7,04
3S+2T x - 6,05
LSp3 - 2,4
ChSq1 - 2,0
2A x - 3,63
CCoSp4 - 3,5

Total Base Value = 58,22

Carolina:

3Lz - 6,0
2A - 3,3
3F+3T - 9,4
FCCoSp4 - 3,5
FCSp4 - 3,2
3Lo x - 5,61
3T+2T x - 5,94
3S+2T+2Lo x - 8,03
CCoSp4 - 3,5
StSq4 - 3,9
ChSq1 - 2,0
3S x - 4,62

Total Base Value: 59,0

As you can see, Carolina's BV is higher than Yuna's.

venlac said:

In terms of base value, Mao is the highest, Yuna is second, Carolina is third

In 2013 WC, mao asada's planned base value was 73, yuna's was 61, carolina's was 58

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You can also see here that Yuna executed everything she planned and her base value was 58,22. And Carolina was 59.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2013/wc2013_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

You have to consider their respective short programs.

mateusp1 said:

Yuna:

3Lz+3T - 10,1
3F - 5,3
FCCoSp4 - 3,5
3S - 4,2
StSq4 - 3,9
3Lz x - 6,6
2A+2T+2Lo x - 7,04
3S+2T x - 6,05
LSp3 - 2,4
ChSq1 - 2,0
2A x - 3,63
CCoSp4 - 3,5

Total Base Value = 58,22

Carolina:

3Lz - 6,0
2A - 3,3
3F+3T - 9,4
FCCoSp4 - 3,5
FCSp4 - 3,2
3Lo x - 5,61
3T+2T x - 5,94
3S+2T+2Lo x - 8,03
CCoSp4 - 3,5
StSq4 - 3,9
ChSq1 - 2,0
3S x - 4,62

Total Base Value: 59,0

As you can see, Carolina's BV is higher than Yuna's.

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why you didn't included SP's base value?

Moment said:

You have to consider their respective short programs.

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The SP and LP base value together will be more than 61 and 58.

venlac said:

I considered only jumps base value...

by the way, why you didn't included SP's base value?

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I thought you are talking about the LP base value.

Ans you also said the Yuna's base value for her LP was 61 and Carolina's was 58. And the numbers you said were not correct. Yuna's BV for the LP was 58,22 and Carolina's was 59.

mateusp1 said:

The SP and LP base value together will be more than 61 and 58.

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SP
Kim: 32.03 (scored 31.63 because she got a level 3 for a flying camel)
Kostner: 29.93

FS
Kim: 58.22
Kostner: 59.0

Who has a higher BV combined?

mateusp1 said:

I thought you are talking about the LP base value.

Ans you also said the Yuna's base value for her LP was 61 and Carolina's was 58. And the numbers you said were not correct. Yuna's BV for the LP was 58,22 and Carolina's was 59.

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I didn't considered spins and steps bv, I said SP+FS total Jumps' base value

Moment said:

The first half of Boléro is basically her skating through from element to element, pulling out big tricks afraid of messing up the whole thing. She does not fully take control of her whole performance in the way Yuna does.

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I disagree. Despite the mistakes, I felt she full engaged the viewers from start to finish in both of her programs, more so than any other skater at that competition.

My post is about a technical clean skate, not presentation or subjective things like "engaging with the audience." She has to focus on jumps, not do much else to nail them.

Kim will win if clean. We all know the scores she can post. She will have highest TES because she will receive highest GOE on all her elements ( even with Mao having higher BV ). And she will receive higher components like we saw at 2013 worlds

IMO Kostner will be 2nd. Even with lower BV than Mao she will receive much higher GOE than Mao bringing their TES scores about even. Then on components Kostner will have the edge. It is clear that judges like Kostner more than Mao and will be generous even if kostner has a few faults.

The first page of replies is as far as I could read. Unless I'm missing something, Kostner made 2 mistakes and Yuna won by 21 points. Even had Kostner not made those 2 mistakes, Yuna would have still won by a very, very decisive margin, and that even does not consider her underscore in the short program.

1) YuNa Kim
2) Carolina Kostner
3) Mao Asada


Explanation with disclaimer: I'm trying to be realistic, but ideal, i.e. no one's fixing an edge magically at the Olympics, and I can't really account for how much better or worse the following season's programs will be compared to this year's so these are just approximations based on how his year's programs were relatively received.


YuNa Kim - No major changes to layout, most predictable.
SP: 76.27 (TES=39.09, PCS=37.18)
- I add 2.10 for a clean 3F + 2GOE
- Plus 0.2 GOE to give 3Lz-3T same GOE she gets in LP and is likely to get in SP
- Plus 5.00 to PCS (+1.00 for each category) then factor x0.8. This takes into account expected Olympic inflation, plus the fact that this year's Worlds Ladies' SP was conservatively scored
LP: 148.34 (TES=74.73, PCS=73.61)
- Unchanged because Worlds 2013 is close to her maximum under current system
- PCS is pretty close to the maximum they might give to anyone and since they are all fairly close at their best, I'm not going to distinguish and give everyone YuNa's PCS from the FS since it was the highest. Not arguing that this is how the judges will see it, but I don't think they will vary too much on a lights-out skate between all three and I am being generous for the fun of the thought experiment
Total: 224.61


Carolina Kostner
SP: 76.36 (TES=38.51, PCS=37.85) - she wins the SP in this scenario
- I upgraded her 3-3 from 3T-3T to 3F-3T with +2 GOE's across the board and some +3's for a total GOE of 1.60 (same as YuNa's 3Lz-3T)
- Added 5.00 PCS if skated clean at Olympics (+1 for each category) - then factored x0.8
LP: 146.81 (TES=73.20, PCS=73.61=YuNa's score)
- this time she hits her 3Lo and solo 3S with 10% bonus and +2 GOE each
Total: 223.17


Mao Asada
SP: 71.27 (TES=34.87, PCS=36.40)
- this time she will hit 3A with mostly +1 GOE across, maybe a few judges giving +2 GOE (not really deserved, but she's the only top female skater doing it right now, they like to give bonus points for trying)
- successful 3F-2Lo with +2 GOE
- Upgrading spin from Level 3 to Level 4
- Plus 5.00 PCS with factor
LP: 147.22 (TES=73.61, PCS=73.61=YuNa's)
- Clean 3A with +1's across and some +2's as before
- 3F + 2GOE
- no change to the 3Lz score. She's not going to do it much better, fix the edge, etc.
- Clean 3F-2Lo-2Lo with +2 GOE
Total: 218.49


The estimate between YuNa and Carolina is so close that it can really go either way if they both happened to go squeaky-clean depending on whose style or programs the judges like better on the two nights.

Mao can close the gap if she adds -3Lo combinations to both SP and LP...very tall order, but not impossible. That would give her a boost of at least +6.6 (2x3.3) points over any -2Lo's she's currently doing...which would tip her into Gold (~225.09 total score).

1.) Kim
2.) Kostner
3.) Asada

Asada can only bump out Kostner if she does a lot more technically, she doesn't have the speed and power of Kim or Kostner.

Ok, so I also did a little investigation and counted the scores for LPs only. I took the best scores each lady received this year in any competition and added them up.
The technical score for Carolina is:
3Lz – 7.6 (Worlds free)
2A – 4.3 (worlds free)
3F-3T – 10.3 (worlds free)
FCCoSp4 – 4.5 (Europeans free)
FCSp4 – 4.06 (Both worlds and Europeans free)
3L x – 6.71 (Europeans free)
3T-2T x – 7.04 (both worlds and Europeans free)
3S-2T-2L x – 9.03 (worlds free)
CCoSp4 – 4.43 (worlds free)
StSq4 – 5.9 (Europeans free)
ChSq1 – 3.4 (Europeans free)
3S x – 5.62 (2012 ! worlds free)
Note: the only jump I took from the previous season is a 3S as I believe she can actually land that jump and she will probably change her program layout so that it will come a bit earlier. The technical score is 72.69.

As for Mao we have
3A – 10.07 (4cc sp)
3F-3L< - 8.50 (4cc FS)
3Lz – 5.50 (2012 GPF FS)
3L – 6.50 (4cc FS)
FCCoSp4 – 4.50 (Worlds FS)
2A-3T x – 9.54 (worlds FS)
3S x – 5.52 (Worlds FS)
CCoSp4 – 4.43 (NHK FS)
3F-2L-2L x – 9.99 (4cc FS)
FCoSp4 – 3.77 (GPF FS)
StSq4 – 5.90 (4cc SP)
ChSq – 3.70 (GPF FS)
The technical score is 77.92. Note: I included the 3F-3L with an underrotation on a 3L. If we consider them skating clean, Mao could score about 3 points higher for this combination.

For Yuna it's quite obvious - her technical best is around 74.73.

Important thing to notice is that Yuna definitely got a clean-free-skate boost, so I would expect both Mao and Caro's score to rise up a bit if they're clean.
PCS is a different story. Prettykeys suggested calculating same exact score for all three ladies, the score being 73.61. It's a highly reasonable suggestion, as I also think if clean, the PCS will not vary much - all three are breathtaking. Though I think Caro will come a tiny bit ahead and Mao a little worse than Yuna in PCS.

Final standing in the free skate:
1. Mao 150,53 (77.92+72.61) Could be 3 points more with a rotated 3F-3L.
2. Yuna 148.34 (74.73+73.61)
3. Caro 147.3 (72.69+74.61)

I didn't do the SP scores yet, but it would highly depend on Mao's layout. If she goes for a program with 4 triples clean she will probably come far ahead of both Yuna and Caro but if she doesn't she would be definitely under Yuna, probably even Caro.

Summing up, in an ideal scenario when all 3 go clean, I imagine it's 1. Mao 2. Yuna 3. Caro. Now the only thing left is to calculate the probability of each going clean .

I imagine the SP scores to be higher than that. Mao scored around 74 at 4CC this year and with lower PCS. I don't think if everyone is clean, the scores will be lower than those given in Vancouver.