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Thread: What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

  1. #211
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    Hmm. It will be really interesting if we do this again with next season's layout in September.

    I don't think that clean Kostner will ever beat clean Yuna, but I am wondering what will be her layout for upcoming season. In 2012 worlds, she did almost clean program without 3lz or 3-3(she did 3F, 2A-3T.) and got 63 in TES, 65 in PCS. In 2013 worlds, she made two jumping mistakes and got 60 in TES, 70 in PCS. So she actually got 3 more pts in TES last year. Now that she raised her PCS by quite margin, will she just go for easier layout and going for clean which will give her even more PCS? (You know, Olympics bump..) I don't think she will raise her technical contents any more than this year's since it's already too risky for her.

    But with Yuna, it is different story. I think she will definitely raise the level of difficulty in her technical contents in upcoming season, ie working on spin lv 4 in SP, changing jump-layout (possibly two 3F, two 3Lz) in LP etc. Given that her current coaches are the ones who completed her jump techniques when she was young, it is even possible that she may bring back her 3Lo. (by less than 10% of chance though.) In this case, even clean Asada with current crazy layout will hardly beat her.

    Anyway I am very happy that Yuna is back! She is forcing everyone to bring their A- game!

  2. #212
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    This thread has been entertaining, I must say, in ways both good and bad . I was debating whether to participate or not; at certain points in its development, the place seemed overrun with hulking, beetle-browed mountain denizens out of a Grimm's fairy tale. Or maybe it's that when we get our dander up, and get red-faced and call each other the devil in self-righteously elevated falsetto, we all start to resemble one another, whether ubers or haters or something in between. We have met the enemy, and he is us.

    But then I thought: ahhh, the heck with it. Might as well just dive in. As anyone who's ever been a little boy knows (which I realize is a tremendously un-PC generalization that excludes at least half the audience), sometimes there's nothing that clears the air better than a good old fashioned, mindless free-for-all.

    When I was in grade school, we played a "game" that we called 'Russian Smuck', which consisted of a pack of boys chasing down and piling onto whoever had the ball, after which the ball was released so that someone else could have the honor of being the rabbit. There was nothing else to it ; I do not recall that there were any teams or that there was such a thing as a score. It was, nevertheless, tremendously popular for a while. I don't know where the name came from. My own theory is that this game, or some similarly atavistic variant, was the origin of rugby and American football.

    With those meandering prefatory remarks out of the way, what are my own thoughts on the topic at hand? My general impression is that, as is often the case, the controversy stems from a lack of precision in defining the initial conditions of the question.

    -What do we mean when we say "if she goes clean"? This question, I suggest, is not as simple as it seems. We all seem to vaguely agree that this hypothetical cleanliness ought to represent the best of which that particular skater is capable, element by element, component by component. But this begs the question: how is that skater's representative best, for the purpose of a patinageous soothsaying that has at least some veneer of rationality, to be defined and identified?

    Is it enough to simply find the best example of an element, say, a triple flip, ever done by that skater in her career, and use the characteristics and scores for that singular example as the benchmark? And then do the same for all of the elements and components in a hypothetical program and sum them all up?

    The issue, as most of us recognize, is that skater A may only have done a 3F of that quality once in her career, perhaps at a Nationals or a lower level comp, while skater B may have done it many times and on the highest stage. If probability and context are not taken into account and explicitly adjusted for, then the "answer" that results from the simple procedure above is that skater A and skater B are relatively equal "if clean". If that's the way one chooses to define the question, then the answer is, I freely grant, correct...And? What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

    Perhaps another example will make the point more clear. I personally have been known to hit golf drives more than 270 yards, stick approach shots to within a foot of the hole, and drain downhill, left-to-right 50 footers like they were on rails. On the face of it, it seems to me that I should have been one of the favorites for this year's US Open played on the somewhat short Merion course. The only caveat being that I can only do any of these things maybe one time in a thousand. And to do all of these things, and over the course of 72 holes, on a US Open set-up with millions watching, the probability is, I admit, somewhat lower than that. But those are just small details of consistency/execution, aren't they? If clean, I should be in a pairing with Justin Rose. Why aren't there any discussion board threads, I ask you, titled "What would be the leaderboard if Robeye, Tiger, Phil all go clean?"

    The corollary that should logically follow is that it makes no sense, in any practical way, to say that, unadjusted for probability/consistency, Carolina or Mao are the equal of Yuna at this time. Weighting for consistency is not an optional feature; it is a fundamental condition, in my view, for the question (and answer) to make sense at all.

    It is certainly not the way that things are viewed in other sports, or pragmatic pursuits such as businesses. If an eager staffer for a (profitable) bookmaker had decided: "Jayzus, that Alex Rodriguez can smack that ball six ways to Sunday. If he does that in that in the playoffs [which he has never been able to do], the Yankees are gonna win 6 World Series in a row; I'm gonna give 2-to-1 odds on that", that bookmaker would no longer be profitable, and the former staffer would probably be accepting bets in his office at the bottom of the East River, with his cement-shod feet propped up on his slippery desk.

    One last example. If the Powerball amount ever gets to $1 billion, should I buy a ticket and try to persuade Bill Gates to accept it while giving me some like amount in cash, on the rationale that they are essentially equivalent, if I "go clean", as it were? While the differentials are obviously not comparable, I am clearly using it to highlight the logic, which is the same as for the initial framing of this question, or of arguments that Caro or Mao can currently be considered Yuna's equal at this time. I'm all for politically correct diplomacy and mutual good-feeling, but not at the cost of fact and reality.

    -One logically coherent way to frame the question would be the following: start with any of the skaters, and construct a hypothetical program and target scores for each element and component. In parallel, a probability of success is derived for each element/component (at the associated target score) based on the historical data. From this, a probability of success for the entire program can be calculated.

    For each of the other skaters, the question is: can a hypothetical program for them be constructed at the same probability of success, which equals or exceeds the first skater's target score (again, based on historical performance)?

    Another variant would be: pick any probability of success that you want (for example, 50%, or 70% or 80%, etc.), then construct a program for each skater that maximizes the program score which, based on the historical data, meets that probability of success.

    -Long story short: I am of the view that at any desired level of probability one chooses, there is a possible Yuna program that outscores that of Caro or Mao.

    What is the probability that Caro or Mao will go clean with some of the hypothetical programs discussed in this thread? I haven't done the calculations, but is it even 5%?

    The conceptual objection is not the 5% (although that's a pretty low level that calls into question the practical relevance of the exercise), it is that we are utilizing Caro and Mao programs with very low probabilities of success, while arbitrarily, it seems to me, limiting Yuna to a program with, relatively speaking, an extremely high probability of success.

    Why should that necessarily be so? In any competitive endeavor, whether in evolutionary biology or business or geopolitics or athletics, one's plans are not created in a vacuum, but in response to situational exigencies. The program arms race among the ladies is actually a very good example of this. The reason that Mao has evolved such a high BV program is in response to Yuna's huge advantage in GOE; Caro's program has also evolved in the past year (and may continue to evolve in the next) because of a similar impetus, that is, the need to counter Yuna's advantages.

    That they are pursuing what are, historically speaking, relatively dicey program propositions for them, in order to keep alive any hope of Olympic gold, is actually the measure of the gulf between Caro and Mao on the one hand, and Yuna on the other, at the current time. In fact, it was Caro who commented after Worlds that Yuna "is on another planet". One underestimates the intelligence of skaters if we assume that they don't have a very clear-eyed picture of what's what.

    This also goes the other way, however. Yuna chooses to do a 6-triple program for the simple and persuasive reason that, on a probability-adjusted (or equivalent-probability) basis, she can be very comfortable that she does not need to do more to win, and win going away, if she executes well. The error on the part of viewers, IMO, is in thinking that this represents the limit of her possible programs.

    If Yuna felt that she needed to, are there any hypothetical programs with a probability of success (as calculated using some reasonable method based on historical data) that matches the relatively low probability thresholds for the hypothetical Caro/Mao programs (5%, as per my generalized example above; I reiterate that I have not calculated the actual probabilities), but which materially exceed their hypothetical point totals? In my view, the answer to this is "yes". If anything, my own view is that the prospects of success for Yuna to add a 3lo to her programs, or two triple-triples in the LP, etc.(and are therefore accretive to her points total), are at least as good, if not better, than the prospects that Caro or Mao will go clean in their respective low-probability hypothetical programs.

    I feel obligated to add the following standard disclaimer to avoid misunderstanding and flaming: Probability is not certainty, particularly in sports, and particularly in the somewhat one-off type of format that is skating. The "on any given Sunday" element quite clearly exists, and thus, while a descending list of favorites can be created using techniques of quantitative analysis, all of the skaters, particularly the top trio, still have everything to play for.

    (Yes, I apologize for the length of post; members who have been around for a while will know that as hard as I try to keep myself in check, sometimes one just busts out, and will therefore forgive. )

  3. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    The great thing about this topic is we can actually have it. In the mens and pairs there is no discussion. Volosozhar & Trankov and Chan would blow away with the field with everyone skating cleanly, unless Chan takes a hit from some of the negative press around him lately. Granted Kim is much more likely/certain to win than Chan in actuality, but that is only since she is far more likely to skate clean or closer to it than her main rivals, while he is far more likely to make more mistakes than any of the other top skaters but on his norm. However in the hypothetical of an all clean competition, Kim is probably much more vurnerable than Chan this time around.

    Likewise the womens event in Vancouver there would have been no discussion. Had I started a thread what the final results in Vancouver would have been had everyone skated totally clean it would have been something like:

    1. Kim


    ------huge gap----



    2. Asada or Rochette

    -----huge gap-----


    4. Ando or Kostner


    ----huge gap-----


    6. Flatt, Suzuki, Nagasu, etc...



    Boring, nothing to discuss, other than a few mini battles; even in the highly unlikely hypothetical of all skating cleanly, it wasnt a very interesting discussion to what would happen that year. However this time around the feeling is the top 3 are much closer in the hypothetical of all skating cleanly than they would have been in Vancouver. Not only that but the 4-11 from last years Worlds are arguably all evenly matched and would have a close battle with each other and 1 or 2 of the top 3 if any of them open the door with enough mistakes (most likely Kostner and/or Asada to do so).
    Yup. The following skaters
    Kanako Murakami
    Ashley Wagner
    Akiko Suzuki
    Gracie Gold
    Adelina Sotnikova
    Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (or whoever the other Russian is)
    Kaitlyn Osmond
    Zijun Li

    could finish in any order at the Olympics.

    Extreme parity.

  4. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    I doubt anyone can take up my challenge, and cite 25 points that Kostner or Mao can make up off their last scorecard.
    Even if Kostner does not fall at the end, and complete her elements, she still does not make up a whopping 20-25 point difference. Same for Asada.
    Again, it's possible they can win, if Yuna makes mistakes and they beat her, or they could miraculously improve so much in less than 1 year that they can post 230+.
    But as of now and ever since 2009, when Yuna skates her best she will win by a large margin, that's just how it is.
    I would like to take up your challenge. I broke down Carolina scores from Worlds and replaced her missed elements with scores from other competitions where she completed them. The result shows that *if* both Yuna and Carolina skate their programs clean, the "large margin" you are talking about is not there anymore. Let’s assume Carolina went completely clean with the layout she had at 2013 Worlds:

    In the short program, the scenario would be the following:

    3Lo: 6.40
    3T+3T: 9.50 (that’s the score she received for the same combination at Worlds 2012)
    FCSp4: 3.84
    2A: 4.63
    StSq4: 5.60
    CCoSp4: 4.07
    LSp3: 2.97
    TES: 37.01

    With a mistake in the SP, her PCS score was 33.85. In case of a clean skate, she would probably receive higher PCS, I have to assume a number here so I am just going to go for 34.20 (she received 34.60 at Challenge Cup 2013).

    TOTAL SP SCORE: 71.21

    The long program scenario would be:

    3Lz: 7.60
    2A: 4.30
    3F+3T: 10.30
    FCCoSP4: 4.14
    FCSp4: 4.06
    3Lo: 6.71 (that’s what she received at Europeans 2013)
    3T+2T: 7.04
    3S+2T+2Lo: 9.03
    CCoSP4: 4.43
    StSq4: 5.80
    ChSq1: 3.30
    3S: 5.67 (that’s what she received at Challenge Cup 2013)
    TES: 72.38

    She had two major mistakes in the FP at Worlds this year and her PCS score was 70.69. With a clean skate, I expect her PCS would go through the roof and I don’t see why she would not match Yuna’s score of 73.61.

    That would make a FP score of 145.99 and a total competition score of 217.20.

    That should make it clear: Yuna still has the edge in this scenario, but the gap is not as big as some people here make it out to be.

    Now IF Carolina upgrades her jump content in the SP and FP for next season (which I assume she would if she wants to go for Gold) and IF she delivers cleanly, she could very well match a clean Yuna. Carolina still has plenty of room to play around with her jump content especially in the FP, she currently repeats the two easiest triples (Sal and Toe) and only does one 2a.

    I know that people will now cry out and say "but this will never happen, why are we even talking about this, Carolina will never skate clean in both programs". I agree - I think it's highly unlikely that Carolina will skate clean in both competition phases, she always makes some mistakes here and there. But we are talking hypothetically here, so why not look into it and play with the numbers. And if people say that hypothetically it's impossible for anyone currently competing to come close to a clean Yuna and that she would still win by a large margin, I think I just proved to you that this would not be the case.

    Now, it would be interesting to see a break-down of Mao's program. Any volunteers to do that?

  5. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ven View Post
    I doubt anyone can take up my challenge, and cite 25 points that Kostner or Mao can make up off their last scorecard.
    Actually, in addition to Jiggs' post #215, your challenge was met by Prettykeys (post 37), Cherryy (post 39), Flattfan (post #88), me (post #139), and Melon (post #142).

    Again, no one has claimed that these potentially top scoring performances is likely, just possible on paper.

  6. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moment View Post
    No matter how tense she looked throughout her entire program, her flip at the SP was perfect and should have received +2 to +3 GOE all across the judging panel.

    Fake edge calls or lack thereof happen all the time from very "incompetent" callers, it is no surprise for me. Daisuke Takahashi never ever receives deductions for his slight flutz, for instance.
    Let's not get into this debate again. I just rewatched Yuna's SP; the camera angle wasn't the best for studying the flip, but from what I can gather, it looks like she was leaning just the slightest bit on the outside edge -- another millisecond of preparation and she would have been clean.

    What are the other "many" examples of "fake edge calls or lack thereof"? If it was really due to a series of incompetent tech callers, you'd think someone would have raised the issue by now.

  7. #217
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    Also, from a technical panel aspect, you need agreement of 2 out of 3 minimum for an edge call otherwise the skater gets the benefit of the doubt. Period. Someone on the tech panel (TC, TS, OR ATS) saw something questionable and called for a review. On review in HD slow motion, it was deemed to NOT be off an inside edge. Mistakes happen, sometimes by the skater, even the one named Yuna Kim! As I said in my post about Carolina, Yuna has an occasional 3F (e) meaning it HAS been called and more than just one time. This is a fact.

    Oh, and Dai HAS been called for his slight 3Lz (e) from time to time.

  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Let's not get into this debate again. I just rewatched Yuna's SP; the camera angle wasn't the best for studying the flip, but from what I can gather, it looks like she was leaning just the slightest bit on the outside edge -- another millisecond of preparation and she would have been clean.

    What are the other "many" examples of "fake edge calls or lack thereof"? If it was really due to a series of incompetent judges, you'd think someone would have raised the issue by now.
    I've seen it from another angle, right from the front. There was nothing wrong with it. Anyway you shouldn't expect me to stop while you keep insisting it was incorrect.

    And I can list other examples if you want me to:
    Jason Brown, 2013 JWC (flutz not called)
    Kaetlyn Osmond, 2012 SC (incorrectly called lip)
    Mirai Nagasu, 2012 NHK (flutz not called)
    Adelina Sotnikova, 2012 SA (flutz not called)
    Ross Miner, 2012 NHK (incorrectly called lip)
    Yuzuru Hanyu, 2012 NHK (lip not called)

    Good enough?

  9. #219
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    I will gladly do a breakdown of Mao's program, though it probably won't be of the quality of yours, jiggs. I'm very interested to see how this turns out.

    In the SP:

    3A: 10.07 (2013 4CC)
    3F+2Lo: 8.00 (2013 4CC)
    LSp: 3.41 (2012 Cup of China)
    FCSp: 3.77 (2012 CoC)
    3Lo: 6.51 (2013 4CC)
    CCoSp: 4.29 (2012 NHK)
    StSq: 5.80 (2013 WTT)
    Total TES: 41.85

    Mao received 33.86 in PCS at 4CC for what was arguably her best performance of the season. So, her total SP score is 75.71.

    Now, for the FS:

    3A: 10.07 (2013 4CC)
    3F: 6.10 (2012 NHK)
    3Lz: 6.00 (she hasn't yet landed one cleanly this season, so let's just give her the BV with 0 GOE)
    3Lo+2Lo: 7.50 (2013 Worlds)
    FCCoSp: 4.50 (2013 Worlds)
    2A+3T: 9.54 (2013 Worlds)
    3S: 5.52 (2013 Worlds)
    CCoSp: 4.50 (2012 CoC)
    3F+2Lo+2Lo: 10.37 (2012 GPF)
    FCSp: 3.77 (2012 GPF)
    StSq: 5.80 (2012 NHK)
    ChSq: 3.70 (2012 GPF, 2013 4CC)
    Total TES: 77.37

    Let's use her PCS from Worlds, 68.71, and give her one more point because we're assuming she goes clean. Her total score for the FS is 147.08.

    Overall, Mao scores 222.79 with her program layout from Worlds. This hinges on the probability that she skates absolutely clean in BOTH segments of the competition, I know. But we're talking about what COULD happen, not what WILL happen.

  10. #220
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moment View Post
    I've seen it from another angle, right from the front. There was nothing wrong with it. Anyway you shouldn't expect me to stop while you keep insisting it was incorrect.

    And I can list other examples if you want me to:
    Jason Brown, 2013 JWC (flutz not called)
    Kaetlyn Osmond, 2012 SC (incorrectly called lip)
    Mirai Nagasu, 2012 NHK (flutz not called)
    Adelina Sotnikova, 2012 SA (flutz not called)
    Ross Miner, 2012 NHK (incorrectly called lip)
    Yuzuru Hanyu, 2012 NHK (lip not called)

    Good enough?
    Did you not read what mskater93 just wrote?

    Anyway, from what I saw, it was incorrect. Barely. And this is the last I will say about the topic, because as evidenced by the thread, I would also like to discuss Carolina and Mao.

  11. #221
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    Still doesn't mean it was an accurate call. Her flip at Worlds SP was fine. Mistakes happen from tech callers.

  12. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    Hehe. The system is not ready to deal with Sport. It's more about politics. And that witch won't allow some Russian new baby to take gold. Disgusting.
    But then again, it is not easy to see whose political interests are served by elevating Kim over the favorites of the movers and shakers of the ISU (Russia, Canada, USA, Japan, Cinquanta, Dore, Piseev, Gailhaguet, etc.)

    About whether Mao's two programs at worlds could have made made up the huge 22 point gap between her and Yuna, I think the point is that if Mao had gone perfectly clean with her intended content (a 5F+3T instead of 3F<, etc.), then her GOEs and PCSs would also magically have jumped up into the Kim range. There's nothing like a huge triple-triple, or a completely rotated and perfectly landed triple Axel, to make judges suddenly take note of how wonderful your choreography and interpretation are.

    But that didn't happen, which is the reason why people who like reality (ugh) better than fantasy () are staying away from this thread.
    Last edited by Mathman; 06-19-2013 at 09:55 AM.

  13. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    But then again, it is not easy to see whose political interests are served by elevating Kim over the favorites of the movers and shakers of the ISU (Russia, Canada, USA, Japan, Cinquanta, Dore, Piseev, Gailhaguet, etc.)
    In the context where my reply came from it wasn't about Kim only. It was the general rather disrespective idea that podium in Sochi, and gold especially, is reserved for those three, those who are in the title of this thread.
    (a 4F+3T instead of 3F<, etc.),

    But that didn't happen, which is the reason why people who like reality (ugh) better than fantasy () are staying away from this thread.
    Wait, you are saying that you need to have a quad combo to beat Yuna, who doesn't have even 3A, not saying of a quad. Jesus...

  14. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    No need to be upset. I assure you there are enough fools among the rich. Money doesn't always come from intelligence. Sometimes it's just luck. Or in case of fs- corrupted judging that made someone a fake Queen with millions followed.
    My money is on Max Aaron. In his recent on line interview with Jennifer Kirk and David Leash he mentioned that his real estate portfolio is doing quite well, thank you, and he expects to do even better as he gains experience in timing the market.

    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    In the context where my reply came from it wasn't about Kim only. It was the general rather disrespective idea that podium in Sochi, and gold especially, is reserved for those three, those who are in the title of this thread.
    Wait, you are saying that you need to have a quad combo to beat Yuna, who doesn't have even 3A, not saying of a quad. Jesus...
    Oops. I have edited my post appropriately.

  15. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish
    Now, for the FS:

    3A: 10.07 (2013 4CC)
    3F: 6.10 (2012 NHK)
    3Lz: 6.00 (she hasn't yet landed one cleanly this season, so let's just give her the BV with 0 GOE)
    3Lo+2Lo: 7.50 (2013 Worlds)
    FCCoSp: 4.50 (2013 Worlds)
    2A+3T: 9.54 (2013 Worlds)
    3S: 5.52 (2013 Worlds)
    CCoSp: 4.50 (2012 CoC)
    3F+2Lo+2Lo: 10.37 (2012 GPF)
    FCSp: 3.77 (2012 GPF)
    StSq: 5.80 (2012 NHK)
    ChSq: 3.70 (2012 GPF, 2013 4CC)
    Total TES: 77.37
    Actually, Mao is going for 3F-3Lo and a solo 3Lo, no 3Lo-2Lo
    So instead of 3F = 6.1 and 3Lo-2Lo = 7.5, I'd say it's 3Lo = 6.4 (GPF2012) and 3F-3Lo< = 8.5 (4CC). So her TES is about 1.3 points higher, and her overall score is 224.09. And if Mao would get that 3-3 ratified, it would be 10.4 in BV alone, so again, about 2 points higher.
    All of that without thinking about how her PCS would rise if she was clean

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