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Thread: What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

  1. #226
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Thank you very much for your analysis Jiggs and ForeverFish. Nicely done!

    I'm interested to see what Ven (or is it Venlac? Are these the same person??) has to say about the results.

    Hypothetically, if Mao had skated perfectly at worlds this year, she'd have won and Yu-Na and Carolina would have been neck and neck. With Carolina's hypothetical score of 217.20 and Yu-Na's 218.31 (a difference of only 1.11 points) it's very clear that 2nd place would be a complete toss up and would come down to who the judges preferred more on that night.


    So, again citing math as proof for this hypothetical, a perfect Carolina and perfect Mao have scoring potential equal to and better than Yu-Na. That's the hypothetical. The reality is neither Mao or Carolina are known for skating flawlessly through two programs. I will not say it's impossible for them to skate cleanly...I will say it's highly improbable.

    But in some alternate universe Mao is a 3-time world champ and Yu-Na and Carolina were 2nd and 3rd (or 3rd and 2nd) this year at worlds.

  2. #227
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Thank you very much for your analysis Jiggs and ForeverFish. Nicely done!

    I'm interested to see what Ven (or is it Venlac? Are these the same person?) has to say about the results.
    No. Not so sure about venlac, karlon, and the mysterous (which side is he really on? ) torren, though.

  3. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by jaylee View Post
    Read it again. I specifically say it's not illegal. But Japanese skaters benefit from the homefield advantage when major competitions are hosted in their country. That's not available to skaters from small federations.
    There must be something wrong with my reading comprehension then. You started off saying politics and corrupt judging have never helped Yuna....etc etc...who did they help. And your third sentence names Mao. I interpreted that as you saying politics and corrupt judging have helped Mao.

    But whatever...

  4. #229
    Yuna's Ice Rink cooper's Avatar
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    jaylee = voice of reason.

    when you start dragging, calling some fair yuna fans yunabots it means one thing, you don't have a good argument and pretending you know it all. oh well. blame yuna for winning. blame yuna why mao is re-working with her jumps. blame yuna why the russian wonderbabies had growth spurts. blame yuna why she won her 2nd world title for back to back clean performances. blame yuna for everything. hahaha. must be painful to see someone like her taking away from your favorite skater.

  5. #230
    Yuna's Ice Rink cooper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chloepoco View Post
    There must be something wrong with my reading comprehension then. You started off saying politics and corrupt judging have never helped Yuna....etc etc...who did they help. And your third sentence names Mao. I interpreted that as you saying politics and corrupt judging have helped Mao.

    But whatever...
    well.. they helped her when she won NHK.

  6. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Actually, Mao is going for 3F-3Lo and a solo 3Lo, no 3Lo-2Lo
    So instead of 3F = 6.1 and 3Lo-2Lo = 7.5, I'd say it's 3Lo = 6.4 (GPF2012) and 3F-3Lo< = 8.5 (4CC). So her TES is about 1.3 points higher, and her overall score is 224.09. And if Mao would get that 3-3 ratified, it would be 10.4 in BV alone, so again, about 2 points higher.
    All of that without thinking about how her PCS would rise if she was clean
    Yep. I think I based it off of Mao's program at 2013 Worlds, where the landing of the 3F prevented her from attempting the 3Lo.

  7. #232
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Wow.....this thread.

    So in the interest of everyone who wants to discuss the topic on hand...my opinion.

    What is really comes down to is two things, even if a skater goes completely clean (i.e. no URs or edge calls etc.)

    1.) GOE. That is one of two X factors. A big reason Yuna won by such a huge margin in 2010 (and this year's World) is because of those high GOE.

    Let's look at GOE for the competition from the skaters

    Yuna
    SP 5.16
    FS: 16.51
    TOTAL: 21.67

    Mao
    SP: 2.55
    FS: 3.66
    TOTAL: 6.21


    Carolina:
    SP: 4.08
    FS: 10.59
    TOTAL: 14.67


    2.) PCS. While there are bullet points for this, let's face it it can fluctuate greatly. Let's look at what they scored at Worlds.

    Yuna
    SP: 33.18
    FS: 73.61

    Mao
    SP: 32.40
    FS: 68.41

    Carolina:
    SP: 33.85
    FS: 70.63


    Carolina went from being slightly ahead of Yuna in the SP to being nearly three points behind Yuna in the FS. That might have to do with the fact that Yuna skated a clean program and Carolina did it.

    So based on this results, if I were to make an educated prediction my podium with all there skaters clean would be:

    Yuna
    Carolina
    Mao

    Here's why
    1.) Yuna clearly has an edge on GOE and frequently gets high amounts of GOE. Even if Mao came in with a higher BV (which she had at the Worlds FS), Yuna easily can make up for it in GOE.
    2.) Carolina holds her own with PCS and also scores a decent amount of GOE. I think it falls a bit short of what Yuna does and combined that with less (relatively) difficult program content, I don't think she could make up the difference.
    3.) Mao's GOE is quite poor relative to the other two and she doesn't get (currently has high PCS). I think even if she was clean and executed everything perfectly her GOE would be well below Yuna and Carolinas. Now if she does the difficult BV, then maybe she has a chance of moving up. But I also want to consider under what conditions she would be clean and I really don't think it would be by executing a difficult BV.

  8. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    2.) PCS. While there are bullet points for this, let's face it it can fluctuate greatly. Let's look at what they scored at Worlds.

    Yuna
    FS: 73.61

    Mao
    FS: 68.41

    Carolina:
    FS: 70.63
    Wasn't this three skaters' PCS in FS in 2013 world championship? At that event, Only kim had clean program, and Carolina had fall and a few mistakes, Asada had several mistakes.
    So, if all go clean, carolina and Asada's PCS would be higher. and difference in PCS will be small

  9. #234
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    Wasn't this three skaters' PCS in FS in 2013 world championship? At that event, Only kim had clean program, and Carolina had fall and a few mistakes, Asada had several mistakes.
    So, if all go clean, carolina and Asada's PCS would be higher. and difference in PCS will be small
    Maybe, but I don't think it would make up for the massive GOE advantage that Yuna currently has.

  10. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    What is really comes down to is two things, even if a skater goes completely clean (i.e. no URs or edge calls etc.)

    1.) GOE. That is one of two X factors. A big reason Yuna won by such a huge margin in 2010 (and this year's World) is because of those high GOE.

    Let's look at GOE for the competition from the skaters

    Yuna
    SP 5.16
    FS: 16.51
    TOTAL: 21.67

    Mao
    SP: 2.55
    FS: 3.66
    TOTAL: 6.21


    Carolina:
    SP: 4.08
    FS: 10.59
    TOTAL: 14.67
    This is a really bad way to present it.
    You cannot look at GOE in a lump sum and declare one has better GOE than the other so and so.
    For example, Caro's GOE in the SP is 1.08 behind Yuna.
    Her 3T-3T carried a -1.7 GOE. If she got 0 GOE on her 3T-3T and Yuna got 0 GOE on her 3F, Caro's GOE would beat Yuna's GOE.

    So base on this, how can you say if both are clean, Yuna's GOE is higher?

    That's like saying when Usain Bolt is injured, half the field beat him by 20 sec. So when they are all injured free, half the field still beat him because they were 20 sec faster.

  11. #236
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    This is a really bad way to present it.
    You cannot look at GOE in a lump sum and declare one has better GOE than the other so and so.
    For example, Caro's GOE in the SP is 1.08 behind Yuna.
    Her 3T-3T carried a -1.7 GOE. If she got 0 GOE on her 3T-3T and Yuna got 0 GOE on her 3F, Caro's GOE would beat Yuna's GOE.

    So base on this, how can you say if both are clean, Yuna's GOE is higher?

    That's like saying when Usain Bolt is injured, half the field beat him by 20 sec. So when they are all injured free, half the field still beat him because they were 20 sec faster.

    My point is that Yuna currently has such a huge buffer that even if clean, I think Carolina wouldn't be able to make the difference entirely, though she would be quite close.

    As for the SP, if Yuna was clean and didn't get an edge call, she would have received postive GOE, not zero. So I still think that if both were clean in the SP, Yuna would edge her out (barely).

  12. #237
    At the rink. Again. mskater93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chloepoco View Post
    There must be something wrong with my reading comprehension then. You started off saying politics and corrupt judging have never helped Yuna....etc etc...who did they help. And your third sentence names Mao. I interpreted that as you saying politics and corrupt judging have helped Mao.

    But whatever...
    I believe Jaylee was talking about how politics helped Mao with respect to the rule changes allowing the 3A, a jump only Mao is currently performing in the SP contrary to standard ISU rule changes and also the reduction in what the absolute GOE is (+3 = +2.1 for triples except 3A)

  13. #238
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    Also reduce factor of GOE, raise up base value of 3A and 3Loop, 70% rule etc etc. not only positive to Mao, but also very opposed to kim

  14. #239
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Maybe, but I don't think it would make up for the massive GOE advantage that Yuna currently has.
    You might want to check out Jigg and ForeverFish's posts where they break down the scoring (including GOEs I believe)

    Carolina's hypothetical clean programs by Jiggs: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post746757

    Mao's hypothetical clean programs by ForeverFish: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post746810

  15. #240
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    How clean kostner is able to win clean kim?
    base value? she lost to kim. GOE? she shouldn't receive more GOE than kim. PCS? maybe she will receive 1~2 lower than kim.
    I think it can not be even tough competitive

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