What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean | Page 16 | Golden Skate

What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Mao's 2A-3T was clean this year and earned 1.40 points in GOE.

Oh you're right. Sorry, been looking at too many PDFs....will edit.

Still it doesn't change the fact that Mao hasn't had the 3F-3L in years. and the 2A-3T has not been super consistent. She has about a 50 percent hit rate as far as not getting a UR 2A-3T.

In regards to the rest of your post, I think you're missing the point of the hypothetical scenario. I'm taking clean to mean no URs, no negative GOE, an assumption that every element was executed well. Mao's BV of her SP and FS along with +GOE (not as much as Yu-Na or Carolina of course) and a hike in her PCS (which would happen if she were to skate cleanly) would make it very difficult for anyone to catch her over the course of the competition.

I understand that people are approaching the hypothetical situation differently than I do. My answer is taking a different at that the question. I believe that if you're going to talk about "going clean" I have to bring into the discussion what it would take to go clean. I do not think that skating clean for Mao, in her current state, would mean skating a high BV or FS. As I noted, Mao has higher BV than Yuna in the past, yet with a few exceptions, Yuna has always come on top.

I think a clean program for Mao with no URs and no negative GOE would mean not including all those hard elements.

I agree with Robeye that you cannot discuss a hypothetical situation without talking about probability.

Let's say we have money going on this. Unless you were independently wealthy or willing to take a huge risk, you won't bet on Mao on the bases of her hitting a program that includes jump combinations that she currently has a low hit rate on. That said, yes, if the stars align and she does that high BV program, the person who bet on that hypothetical situation would be quite rich.

I think it's a safer bet to bet on Yuna, who has a high-ish BV and solid GOE. Likewise, Carolina has a low BV but high GOE, so that's why I think she would be a safe bet for silver.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
Just like last year, even without the lutz, her TES was 63+ for a 5 triples program. Her PCS would be 70+. If she got 133+ in the LP, she's locked for a medal. I don't see anyone else beating this score with even a light out skate.

Caro at her best should beat Yuna at her best. If your rival is a lot more consistent than you are, and you need to be at your best to beat your rival at her best, it's a hard decision to risk a medal and go all the way for gold. I think she might do a safe layout next year to secure a medal.

Fantasy land, Mao >> Caro ~= Yuna.
Real world Sochi, Yuna >> Caro > Mao.

I like fantasy land more.
 

cosmos

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 2, 2007
ITA. I called it "happy piddles" scoring :). The judges were so excited to see her knock her program out of the park they let the high scores fly. There was no question she was the winner and like you said, whether she won by 5 points or 25 didn't matter b/c no one can legitimately argue that she didn't deserve to win. I do think she was overscored at worlds this year in the FS (I actually think she was a tad underscored in the SP) but in the end, she was the clear winner so the numbers are irrelevant.

Had she skated before Carolina or Mao, I don't think her score would have been that high...it'd have been high, but not that high. I mean, that was less than 2 points off of her Vancouver score! (150.06 vs 148.34). When I did my scoring my numbers for Yu-Na came up to 140.52. (Mao - 134.90, Carolina - 130.25). I feel like the judges were very generous with GOE, especially the +3s and that was the difference in my scoring versus what the judges came up with. Just to compare, Yu-Na received a total of 7 +3 GOEs in Vancouver; at worlds this year she received 33. I think that has something to do with the way the GOE are factored in now but it also has to do with the excitement of seeing her come back after so long and still be able to put on that kind of performance. They wanted to reward her for that...and on a night where the only other people who skated cleanly were not going to medal (Zijun Li and Kanako Murakami), why wouldn't they reward her?

Even if YuNa had skated before Mao and Caro, It would not have made a big difference. In Vancouver, YuNa skated right before Mao but got 150+. This was not 6.0 and it was the final group. If you go to Youtbue, you will find a few commentators who thought it was better than her 2010 performance, and some of them even thought that it was the greatest performance ever they saw. So, I am sure some of judges thought it was really great performance and they gave points they thought it deserved.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Just like last year, even without the lutz, her TES was 63+ for a 5 triples program. Her PCS would be 70+. If she got 133+ in the LP, she's locked for a medal. I don't see anyone else beating this score with even a light out skate.

Caro at her best should beat Yuna at her best. If your rival is a lot more consistent than you are, and you need to be at your best to beat your rival at her best, it's a hard decision to risk a medal and go all the way for gold. I think she might do a safe layout next year to secure a medal.

Fantasy land, Mao >> Caro ~= Yuna.
Real world Sochi, Yuna >> Caro > Mao.

I like fantasy land more.

Fantasy land would be a lot more interesting. Though I think to get to fantasy land, Mao has a bigger hill to climb than Carolina. Carolina's key to fantasy land is a 2A-3T with the 3F-3T in the FS and a 3F-3T in the SP (or even just a 3F instead of a 3Lo with her 3T-3T). Since she has done 3F-3T and 2A-3T in competition this is possible.

Mao's path to fantasy land requires her getting rid of those pesky -3T URs and getting a consistent 3A.

However, if we're going to take about fantasy land, what if Yuna put the 3L back? She would have a 7-triple program again with a 3Z-3T and her fantastic 2A-3T.
 
Joined
Aug 16, 2009
My version of fantasy land: a tie for gold! I'm serious. I could just be happy for all the winners and not feel the sting of someone not getting the gold.

Anyone know a good, reliable genie? :)
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
I do not think that skating clean for Mao, in her current state, would mean skating a high BV or FS. As I noted, Mao has higher BV than Yuna in the past, yet with a few exceptions, Yuna has always come on top.


Mao ends up with a higher BV than Yu-Na but it's often less than what it could be b/c she's received URs or doubles/singles a jump which reduces the BV of her program. Even though that number is often higher than Yu-Na's BV Mao also receives -GOE which docks even more points from her already reduced BV score. That's why Yu-Na can have less BV and still top Mao...she executes her lower BV and receive all of the BV points plus she gains points in GOE. So even though her BV is lower, she rarely loses points on her elements whereas Mao frequently loses points on her elements.


I think a clean program for Mao with no URs and no negative GOE would mean not including all those hard elements.

You're right. Executing all of those difficult elements is why Mao successfully completing that jump layout cleanly is such a tall order...so that makes sense if that's the scenario you're thinking about. I took the OP's meaning of the thread not include probability in the scenario of Mao and Carolina skating cleanly b/c (in a way) that defeats the purpose. In the scenario of a perfect program given the content Mao intended to do at worlds (which was SP: 3A, 3F-2L, 3L -- FS: 3A, 3F-3L, 3Lz(e), 2A-3T, 3L, 3S, 3F-2L-2L), mathematically, Mao comes out on top. Yu-Na and Carolina don't have the content to overcome two 3As and a 2-3 over the course of the competition. I would expect Mao to place below both of them in GOE and PCS, but Mao's BV in addition to the slight boost she'd get from GOE would make it very very difficult for either Yu-Na or Carolina to catch her.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
Even if YuNa had skated before Mao and Caro, It would not have made a big difference. In Vancouver, YuNa skated right before Mao but got 150+. This was not 6.0 and it was the final group. If you go to Youtbue, you will find a few commentators who thought it was better than her 2010 performance, and some of them even thought that it was the greatest performance ever they saw. So, I am sure some of judges thought it was really great performance and they gave points they thought it deserved.

I doubt if it would have made a big difference but I do think her score would have been a little lower.

Yu-Na was the clear favorite coming into Vancouver so when she nailed that program there was pretty much no doubt she was the winner. The only way someone would beat her was if she made a mistake...then the door would have been open and the only person with a prayer of catching her was Mao. But Yu-Na was flawless which means it didn't matter what Mao or anyone else did...no one was topping that performance.

I guess I'll have to disagree with the commentators...it was great she hit the jumps but overall I don't think that was better than Gershwin or even Homage for that matter.
 

FlattFan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jan 4, 2010
I'm just gutted for Caro, she doesn't have the fantasy win nor the reality win.
Fantasy, her absolute best TES isn't strong enough.
Reality, her consistency isn't strong enough.

Mao and Yuna are still the two to beat in any scenarios, even though they have weaker programs. The new system doesn't reward great choreography and interpretation enough.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
I'm just gutted for Caro, she doesn't have the fantasy win nor the reality win.
Fantasy, her absolute best TES isn't strong enough.
Reality, her consistency isn't strong enough.

Mao and Yuna are still the two to beat in any scenarios, even though they have weaker programs. The new system doesn't reward great choreography and interpretation enough.

In the fantasy world where choreography and interpretation are weighted more, of the three Carolina is the winner hands down for me :).

Mao gets silver. Her programs were nice this year. Her SP allowed some of that old Mao personality to shine through but it was definitely recycled from Mirai Nagasu's 2007-2008 SP. Her FS was simple but nicely done...but again, nothing really new.

Yu-Na gets bronze. Both programs were nice but they lacked originality IMO. Mao's did too but I found hers to be more entertaining. Sadly, both Kiss of Vampire and Les Mis bored me a bit...
 

bara1968

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 14, 2013
Yu-Na gets bronze. Both programs were nice but they lacked originality IMO. Mao's did too but I found hers to be more entertaining. Sadly, both Kiss of Vampire and Les Mis bored me a bit...

Hmm then this would be somehow good news for you : in her interview for upcoming iceshow, Yuna said new LP program for next season would be completely different from Les Mis. (Even though herself thought Les Mis was so good that she even wanted to keep it for Olympics.)
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Fantasy land would be a lot more interesting. Though I think to get to fantasy land, Mao has a bigger hill to climb than Carolina. Carolina's key to fantasy land is a 2A-3T with the 3F-3T in the FS and a 3F-3T in the SP (or even just a 3F instead of a 3Lo with her 3T-3T). Since she has done 3F-3T and 2A-3T in competition this is possible.

It will be interesting to see whether Carolina goes for the more difficult in the SP to try to keep up with Yuna or if her plan is to concede the gold and attempt content she is likelier to nail. We know Mao will go for the gold, but she will probably make a few errors that would allow a relatively clean Carolina to win silver.

As Carolina's coach, I'd probably plan her content around skating clean and not even trying to catch Yuna on TES. Carolina hasn't skated great at the Olympics and I think it would be hard for her to successfully attempt the content needed to match Yuna. As Mao's coach, I'd probably plan her programs around winning gold. Unlike Caro, Mao already has a silver medal and needs a gold to cement her legacy alongside Yuna as one of the greatest ever.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
Hmm then this would be somehow good news for you : in her interview for upcoming iceshow, Yuna said new LP program for next season would be completely different from Les Mis. (Even though herself thought Les Mis was so good that she even wanted to keep it for Olympics.)

That's good to know. :) Les Mis was nice but when I compare it to her other FS it just did nothing for me.

I guess I can give up hope to see Homage performed competitively again. That, IMO, had the potential to be a masterpiece program. I thought the music was wonderful and much more original than anything else she'd ever skated to and the choreography was very beautiful. It had a unique feeling that most programs lack...as a result, I was let down to see her go the oft traveled Les Mis route this year. Compared to Homage it felt like a step back.

Oh well. I hope these final two competitive programs are great. Her Bond/Gershwin combo was amazing so I'm going to keep my fingers crossed.
 

MiRé

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 12, 2012
You know that how? Seem like you fail to give a proof of your claim, so your team switched into plain insults. Nothing new here. But it doesn't work with me. I am immune from trolling.
That's a cheat to compare a hypothetical situation (+3 GOE to Yuna's rivals for everything) and the real one (the score that she got at Worlds). Compare the hypothetical with hypothetical, like giving Yuna +3 GOE for everything as well. And real with real. Once again, here's the protocal of the recent Worlds:http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2013/wc2013_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc2013/wc2013_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf . You can see Caro's and Mao's mistakes. Now tell me how exactly they would have been able to cover the gap of 22/21 points accordingly if they hadn't make those mistakes. They wouldn't. That's the point. Yuna was shamefully overscored that made it's impossible to her rivals to reach her even if they skated clean. Disgusting judging.

hahah actually.... if your read my post on #142, the points I gave her, and the GOEs were from Yuna's or Carolina's elements;). So why bother do it twice when I can add the similar scores onto Mao's elements instead? Not gonna lie, I did round up some scores, but that shouldn't add up to 3+ points. So the hypothetical score I gave Mao, 239.92-3 = 236.92. Oh Fine, I'll even subtract few GOEs from her 3A so what -3(1.5 each from SP & LP) points? 236.92-3 = 233.92.

Yuna's best flawless score in Vancouver was 228.56 and the difference from hypothetical Mao's score is 5.4.
You know what this tells you? Mao has the lead, plus, it would be greater 5.4 now because Yuna will never be able to top that score unless she changes her jump routine (actually that wouldnt even work due to so many changes... Influenced by "cough" JSF). It's sad I actually have to show this to you in math, because a person with common knowledge will able to figure out skater who executes 8 triples will beat a skater with 6 triples. :rolleye:

You know what else is sad? JSF doing all their work trying to give Yuna as little advantage as possible, but Mao still loses the World title. Yuna fans are not pathetic, you're pathetic for not realizing the fact that Mao wins if skate clean. You blame CoP? Ok blame CoP that allows that 70% rule, +3 GOE on 3A alone, removal of spiral, limit on 2A, allowing 3A as single jump in SP. Do you not realize Mao's being spoon fed right now:think: ? CoP is designed for Mao Asada. Yunaflation isn't a problem here, like I mentioned many times, blame Mao for not skating a clean program.
I can't believe with all these buffs Mao has you still don't think Mao will win if she goes clean. Now that really IS pathetic.
 

TheCzar

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 30, 2013
I guess I'll have to disagree with the commentators...it was great she hit the jumps but overall I don't think that was better than Gershwin or even Homage for that matter.

I agree. Somehow, I thought she took a mechanical approach at WC which was fair enough since she had a job to do. I felt more emotion behind her Arirang program (probably because its an ode to South Korea), which is why I'm hoping she would bring it back at her FS to do it justice. Even when she got the medal, somehow, I read her like she knew exactly what she had done and winning the gold was simply the result of her skate. I also *don't hate me!* never liked her Gershwin program. My favourite LP of hers would have to be Scheherazade and Homage.
 

SkateSkates

Medalist
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I agree. Somehow, I thought she took a mechanical approach at WC which was fair enough since she had a job to do. I felt more emotion behind her Arirang program (probably because its an ode to South Korea), which is why I'm hoping she would bring it back at her FS to do it justice. Even when she got the medal, somehow, I read her like she knew exactly what she had done and winning the gold was simply the result of her skate. I also *don't hate me!* never liked her Gershwin program. My favourite LP of hers would have to be Scheherazade and Homage.

I have just been standing by and reading what others have posted in this thread, but this is where I'll chime in - in agreement. I re-watched Yuna's 2008 performances from Skate America and I was completely blown away. That year she told 1 million steps forward in her presentation (in my opinion), and not only caught up with, but surpassed Mao and her other competitors (Mao up to the 2008 season, in my opinion, left a better artistic impression on me). Her Scheherazade program had so many nuances and unexpected flourishes throughout the Les Mis really didn't have. Also, there is no comparison between her dynamic Danse Macabre and last season's Vampire program (...which actually reminded me of her 2008 sp). Just like in the 2007/08 season, I feel her programs did not show off her strengths and did not inspire me to re-watch her performances, even though she skated a clean program. Anyway, I digress. My point is, it really depends on the programs these girls have for next season, because PCS is the deciding factor between these 3. It is my belief that while Mao has a stronger base value, because of her consistently lower GOEs, Yuna and Carolina should be able to catch up with their consistently higher GOEs.

Either way, I really am looking forward to next season and hope each of these 3 lovely ladies will be able to skate to their potential so we can put an end to all this arguing and find out for ourselves what would happen!
 

Moment

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 18, 2013
Lacking originality, yes, Carolina's Boléro borrowed directly from Maurice Béjart and Mao's safey boring Swan Lake.
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
To me, it is interesting that all the commentators, not to mention other skaters, coaches, etc., rave about Kim's performance like it was the most astonishing free skate in the history of skating -- or at least since the CoP began.

Why? Because she skated welll -- a forgotten concept for the last decade. She didn't fall down. She didn't stumble, she skated fast, she showed good flowing edges. Kim did what she said she was going to do. If she said she was going to do a triple Lutz, she did a triple Lutz, not a 2-and-a-half flutz. No wonder she got scores off the chart.

Little choreographic embellishments? Emotional connection to the music? Skaters can worry about that after they take care of business. Kim took care of business. When an athlete knows why she is out there and takes care of business, that's a beautiful thing. I have re-watched that performance 100 times. :love:
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
To me, it is interesting that all the commentators, not to mention other skaters, coaches, etc., rave about Kim's performance like it was the most astonishing free skate in the history of skating -- or at least since the CoP began.

Why? Because she skated welll -- a forgotten concept for the last decade. She didn't fall down. She didn't stumble, she skated fast, she showed good flowing edges. Kim did what she said she was going to do. If she said she was going to do a triple Lutz, she did a triple Lutz, not a 2-and-a-half flutz. No wonder she got scores off the chart.

Little choreographic embellishments? Emotional connection to the music? Skaters can worry about that after they take care of business. Kim took care of business. When an athlete knows why she is out there and takes care of business, that's a beautiful thing. I have re-watched that performance 100 times. :love:

I like that performance too actually. It's not my favorite program (I agree with many, Yuna's best choreographic work was in the 2009 (Dance Macabre/Scheherazade) and 2010 (Bond/Gershwin)), but the performance for Les Mis was much more from the heart that I think people give her credit for.

I think Yuna came with the idea she wasn't doing this for herself. As she noted in her post-skate interview, she did this for the young skaters. She did this so two of those young skaters could join her in Sochi.

Sure it wasn't the pressure of the Olympic gold, but it was the pressure of honoring her country. In Korea, pride and dignity are very important to its people. And I think the pride Yuna felt in getting those two extra spots was very much on her mind. She did her best not just for hersel but for others.

And I think the people in the audience could sense that. And I could sense it too...
 

Krislite

Medalist
Joined
Sep 22, 2010
No, sweetheart. That is where you are entirely wrong. PChan in his career too had wins that were not questioned, while his abnormal score rose a red flag almost immediately after Vancouver, if not earlier. Then it got escalated, judges kept giving him astronomic score, even with multiple falls, because they couldn't afford to admit that before that they had been doing something wrong, so, they just kept overscoring him. All this ended up with boo-ing in Nice and then the second his fake win in a row in Ontarian London. I noticed how no one from Yuna fandom failed to answer my question. I repeat- no one. Obviously because they have nothing constructive to say. Take the real score of Yuna at Worlds-2013, look at the real protocols with real mistakes that Mao and Caro did. And now tell me, if the hadn't made those mistakes and got their stuff fully ratified, how would they possible reach the Yuna's inflated score? They wouldn't. Simple math. That's the point. Overscoring is always evil. It's unfair to other skaters and it kills the competition. This sport has been damaged enough by CoP. If Yuna and her fandom don't care, I find it perfectly understandable. Why should they care. [...]

Are you ignoring all the given examples? There have been several posts in the previous pages showing how Mao and Carolina can match or exceed Yuna's scores from Worlds 2013. What in the world do you mean that Yuna is so over scored that nothing her rivals could do would beat her? That's absurd. The gap is huge only because they made so many costly mistakes. Your comparison of Yuna's wins vs. Patrick's just takes the cake, dear. No two skaters' victories could be so different in this day and age. Yuna's wins command respect, while Patrick's gets showered with contempt. In any case, since you're so obviously trolling us and disregarding facts, I'm done with this.
 

let`s talk

Match Penalty
Joined
Sep 10, 2009
whether she won by 5 points or 25 didn't matter
:laugh: That's why fs can't attrack new fans. If even fans say that 20 points difference doesn't matter, why anyone outside of fs should take this sport seriously. Tell me please, why do we have Code of Points with all the criteria written if points in fact don't matter. They gave her inflated score for "comeback" you are saying? Where is such criteria in ISU books? For someone who has been around fs for sometime I expected more serious approach to judiging system with all the issues on the table. And more repectful to skaters. They basically sent Caro, Mao and others the message: no matter how clean you skate, you won't be able to reach the score we will give to clean Yuna. :mad:
Now I am curious. let's talk, WHY do you think that Asada cannot score higher than 148+ no matter what?
Where did I say that? I didn't. It's your interpretation or better say your twist of someone else's words in the way you find comfortable for you. How very typical from yunafandom. I have been talking about the real score of Yuna at Worlds and the real mistakes that Caro and Mao did there. And about the fact that they wouldn't be able to reach Yuna's inflated score even if they hadn't made those mistakes, based on simple math. The only 'reply' that your buddies could produce is to go to the hypothetical score from a fanatsy land and not to talk about the score at Worlds-2013 at all. Cheat again.
she attacked jaylee for no other reason..
If you were telling the truth, then that Master's posts would be still on the borad. But they got deleted by Mathman. Lying is always bad. :p
hahah actually.... if your read my post on #142, the points I gave her, and the GOEs were from Yuna's or Carolina's elements;). So why bother do it twice when I can add the similar scores onto Mao's elements instead? Not gonna lie, I did round up some scores, but that shouldn't add up to 3+ points. So the hypothetical score I gave Mao, 239.92-3 = 236.92. Oh Fine, I'll even subtract few GOEs from her 3A so what -3(1.5 each from SP & LP) points? 236.92-3 = 233.92.
Of course I did read your post #142. That's why I didn't take it seriously. You were not just cheating with GOE, you also "rounded up" PCS as well. Basically you went to a fantasy land of a hypothetical skating because you couldn't deal with the real skating and the score Yuna got at Worlds 2013. Once again- take the real score from the real event that Yuna got, take the real mistakes that Caro and Mao did and now tell me how would thay have possible reached the Yuna's inflated score if they hadn't made those mistakes. Can you read protocols and see their mistakes? Obviously not. In FS Caro- one fall, << on 3S, single her Loop; Mao- edge call, two <, -GOE on 3A. Do you need their SP as well? No fantasy land with hypothetical skating if you please this time. Only the real answer. I you can.
Are you ignoring all the given examples?
I do. Invalid ones. Due to the reason I explained above^. Maybe you can give me the valid one? :popcorn:
 
Top