Page 17 of 28 FirstFirst ... 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 ... LastLast
Results 241 to 255 of 417

Thread: What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

  1. #241
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    217
    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    How clean kostner is able to win clean kim?
    base value? she lost to kim. GOE? she shouldn't receive more GOE than kim. PCS? maybe she will receive 1~2 lower than kim.
    I think it can not be even tough competitive
    The answer to your question is here: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post746757

  2. #242
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The land of Agent Dale Cooper
    Posts
    9,685
    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    You might want to check out Jigg and ForeverFish's posts where they break down the scoring (including GOEs I believe)

    Carolina's hypothetical clean programs by Jiggs: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post746757

    Mao's hypothetical clean programs by ForeverFish: http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sho...l=1#post746810
    These are great analysis, thank you both.

    That said, my opinion is based on what I think would happen for them to be clean in the first place, not if they would do these hypothetical layouts clean. I agree with Robeye that you have to put some probability analysis into making an educational guess. I don't think Mao would go clean doing such a tough layout because she has yet to show she can as of late.

    I would actually put more of my money on Carolina because she has done a 3F-3T in competition as of late and doesn't UR. Her mistakes seem to be silly ones rather than ones reflecting bad technique. However, I don't think she will have enough in GOE and PCS to make up for what will be likely a clean BV from Yuna.

  3. #243
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    Detroit, Michigan
    Posts
    28,825
    Temporarily closed for thread management. Watch this space for the grand opening of the new, improved (if somewhat shorter) version.

    ...OK, as you were.

    Here's the rule. Post about figure skating, not about how stupid other posters are.
    Last edited by Mathman; 06-19-2013 at 04:09 PM.

  4. #244
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    2,781
    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    My point is that

    As for the SP, if Yuna was clean and didn't get an edge call, she would have received postive GOE, not zero. So I still think that if both were clean in the SP, Yuna would edge her out (barely).
    Your point is Yuna would have received positive GOE on the flip and caro would receive 0 goe on her 3t3t combo, so yuna would still edge her out.

    Ok, I get ur point now.

  5. #245
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The land of Agent Dale Cooper
    Posts
    9,685
    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Your point is Yuna would have received positive GOE on the flip and caro would receive 0 goe on her 3t3t combo, so yuna would still edge her out.

    Ok, I get ur point now.
    Yep, although I guess you could argue that Caro could get extra GOE as well. Still, I think Yuna would edge her out but barely.

    I think the GOE gap is (and would be in the future) greater in the FS.

  6. #246
    Custom Title prettykeys's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    1,803
    Quote Originally Posted by chloepoco View Post
    There must be something wrong with my reading comprehension then. You started off saying politics and corrupt judging have never helped Yuna....etc etc...who did they help. And your third sentence names Mao. I interpreted that as you saying politics and corrupt judging have helped Mao.

    But whatever...
    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    I believe Jaylee was talking about how politics helped Mao with respect to the rule changes allowing the 3A, a jump only Mao is currently performing in the SP contrary to standard ISU rule changes and also the reduction in what the absolute GOE is (+3 = +2.1 for triples except 3A)
    That's what I gathered from jaylee's post as well.

    The kind of assumptions people insert where their reading comprehension is lacking is certainly interesting to see...

  7. #247
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    2,781
    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Yep, although I guess you could argue that Caro could get extra GOE as well. Still, I think Yuna would edge her out but barely.

    I think the GOE gap is (and would be in the future) greater in the FS.
    So Caro got 1.6 GOE for her 3T3T whenever she landed them cleanly. How big would Yuna have to get for her flip to edge Caro out?

    Let's assume Yuna got the GOE she did for her flip in the LP
    5.16 + .2 + 1.9 = 7.06

    Caro
    4.08 + 1.7 + 1.6 = 7.38 GOE

    So no, Yuna is not going to edge Caro out of anything.

    You can do the same exercise in the LP.

    The point is this, there is no "huge buffer"
    If anything, Caro can edge out Yuna because her jumps have similar GOE and her steps always have better GOE.

  8. #248
    Custom Title prettykeys's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    1,803
    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    If anything, Caro can edge out Yuna because her jumps have similar GOE and her steps always have better GOE.
    And, Carolina can put 7 triple jumps into her LP.

  9. #249
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The land of Agent Dale Cooper
    Posts
    9,685
    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    So Caro got 1.6 GOE for her 3T3T whenever she landed them cleanly. How big would Yuna have to get for her flip to edge Caro out?

    Let's assume Yuna got the GOE she did for her flip in the LP
    5.16 + .2 + 1.9 = 7.06

    Caro
    4.08 + 1.7 + 1.6 = 7.38 GOE

    So no, Yuna is not going to edge Caro out of anything.

    You can do the same exercise in the LP.

    The point is this, there is no "huge buffer"
    If anything, Caro can edge out Yuna because her jumps have similar GOE and her steps always have better GOE.

    Yuna scored 7.2 not 7.06 for her 3F in the FS. So I'll use that number would have received a total GOE of 7.26 points, for a total TES of 38.89

    Carolina, assuming the +1.6 (plus BV of 8.2) would have received a total GOE 7.38 for a total TES of 37.31

    So in this scenario yes, Carolina would edge out Yuna in GOE, however, the with a lower BV, Yuna still would have prevailed in TES.

    So adding the PCS they received the total SP scores for Yuna and Carolina are 71.93 and 71.16, respectively. Basically virtual tie, but Yuna edges out by a hair.

    So original argument is wrong here, but it's clear that Yuna's higher BV helped her here.

    I do think Yuna can gather up a much higher buffer in GOE in the FS though, hence my earlier assention.

    That said, based on the math here, I do think Carolina could challenge Yuna, especially if she decides to bring the 3F-3T to the SP.

  10. #250
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Posts
    904
    Quote Originally Posted by prettykeys View Post
    That's what I gathered from jaylee's post as well.

    The kind of assumptions people insert where their reading comprehension is lacking is certainly interesting to see...
    I'm not assuming anything; furthermore, my reading comprehension is just fine, thank you.

  11. #251
    Custom Title
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    2,781
    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Yuna scored 7.2 not 7.06 for her 3F in the FS. So I'll use that number would have received a total GOE of 7.26 points, for a total TES of 38.89
    No, I'm talking about GOE only. I gave her back the -0.2 point on her flip, added 1.9 GOE that she would earn comparable to the flip she did in the LP. Her GOE in the SP would go up by another 2.1

    Carolina, without the fall, would get back -1.7 GOE on the 3x3, earn another 1.6 GOE, so she would gain an additional 3.3 points, thus, giving her the edge in GOE in the SP.

    In the LP, with 7 triples, there is no chance a clean Caro would score less GOE than a clean Kim.
    Kim was flawless and had about 6 points GOE advantage. Caro made 2 big errors, each cost her over 1 point in GOE, her other elements weren't exactly strong either.

    I don't see a "much higher buffer" anywhere.
    I see Caro's BV is higher than Yuna's BV in the LP.

    If skated perfectly, their TES will be within a point. This is because Kim has harder 3x3, and 3 lutzes total. Caro only has 1 lutz, but one extra triple loop. BV should also be within a point, GOE is also very close.
    They will beat each other base on PCS if both are clean. This is where I think Caro should win because her programs are just better.

  12. #252
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    1,212
    Quote Originally Posted by jiggs View Post
    I would like to take up your challenge. I broke down Carolina scores from Worlds and replaced her missed elements with scores from other competitions where she completed them. The result shows that *if* both Yuna and Carolina skate their programs clean, the "large margin" you are talking about is not there anymore. Let’s assume Carolina went completely clean with the layout she had at 2013 Worlds:

    In the short program, the scenario would be the following:

    3Lo: 6.40
    3T+3T: 9.50 (that’s the score she received for the same combination at Worlds 2012)
    FCSp4: 3.84
    2A: 4.63
    StSq4: 5.60
    CCoSp4: 4.07
    LSp3: 2.97
    TES: 37.01

    With a mistake in the SP, her PCS score was 33.85. In case of a clean skate, she would probably receive higher PCS, I have to assume a number here so I am just going to go for 34.20 (she received 34.60 at Challenge Cup 2013).

    TOTAL SP SCORE: 71.21

    The long program scenario would be:

    3Lz: 7.60
    2A: 4.30
    3F+3T: 10.30
    FCCoSP4: 4.14
    FCSp4: 4.06
    3Lo: 6.71 (that’s what she received at Europeans 2013)
    3T+2T: 7.04
    3S+2T+2Lo: 9.03
    CCoSP4: 4.43
    StSq4: 5.80
    ChSq1: 3.30
    3S: 5.67 (that’s what she received at Challenge Cup 2013)
    TES: 72.38

    She had two major mistakes in the FP at Worlds this year and her PCS score was 70.69. With a clean skate, I expect her PCS would go through the roof and I don’t see why she would not match Yuna’s score of 73.61.

    That would make a FP score of 145.99 and a total competition score of 217.20.

    That should make it clear: Yuna still has the edge in this scenario, but the gap is not as big as some people here make it out to be.

    Now IF Carolina upgrades her jump content in the SP and FP for next season (which I assume she would if she wants to go for Gold) and IF she delivers cleanly, she could very well match a clean Yuna. Carolina still has plenty of room to play around with her jump content especially in the FP, she currently repeats the two easiest triples (Sal and Toe) and only does one 2a.

    I know that people will now cry out and say "but this will never happen, why are we even talking about this, Carolina will never skate clean in both programs". I agree - I think it's highly unlikely that Carolina will skate clean in both competition phases, she always makes some mistakes here and there. But we are talking hypothetically here, so why not look into it and play with the numbers. And if people say that hypothetically it's impossible for anyone currently competing to come close to a clean Yuna and that she would still win by a large margin, I think I just proved to you that this would not be the case.

    Now, it would be interesting to see a break-down of Mao's program. Any volunteers to do that?
    You made up 12 points in the FS and 4 points in the SP. The PCS scores are subjective and Yuna would have also received higher PCS in the SP so we can basically cancel those out.

    By my count Yuna still wins by 8 or 9 points if the two skate clean.

  13. #253
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    1,212
    Also next year the programs will be different. Maybe after going back to full time for a full season, Yuna's program will have higher base value. Maybe another skater will improve so much in the next 8 months that they become better. I don't think so but that's more realistic than to say that if one of the other ladies skates clean they would beat Yuna when she's at her best.

  14. #254
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Yunaverse
    Posts
    1,552
    Robeye brought up a good point--in that why are we assuming, for our comparison of hypothetical programs, a program by Yuna that has very high probability of being 100% clean vs. programs by Carolina and Mao with very low chances of 100% clean? In fairness, we should consider cases in which Yuna upgrades her tech content to a level that maximizes her scoring potential while being no less likely to be 100% clean than either Mao or Carolina. For instance, Yuna could include the 3Loop in her program while repeating both the Lutz and the Flip in the LP. While her chances of going clean would be slim, it certainly wouldn't be any more far-fetched than Mao doing a 100% clean 8-triple LP or Carolina doing a clean 7-triple LP at the Olympics. After all, Yuna herself has actually executed a few 7-triple programs in her past skating career. Just some further comments based on Robeye's post, which seems to have been overlooked in all the heated back-and-forth in this thread.

  15. #255
    Yuna's Ice Rink cooper's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    1,309
    Quote Originally Posted by chloepoco View Post
    I'm not assuming anything; furthermore, my reading comprehension is just fine, thank you.
    yes you are.. and others as well when they're making assumptions that yuna is arrogant etc..but when you looked at this year's worlds.. yuna was all class.. someone who brought her A game and her haters are still trying to discredit anything..

Page 17 of 28 FirstFirst ... 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •