That said, my opinion is based on what I think would happen for them to be clean in the first place, not if they would do these hypothetical layouts clean. I agree with Robeye that you have to put some probability analysis into making an educational guess. I don't think Mao would go clean doing such a tough layout because she has yet to show she can as of late.
I would actually put more of my money on Carolina because she has done a 3F-3T in competition as of late and doesn't UR. Her mistakes seem to be silly ones rather than ones reflecting bad technique. However, I don't think she will have enough in GOE and PCS to make up for what will be likely a clean BV from Yuna.
Temporarily closed for thread management. Watch this space for the grand opening of the new, improved (if somewhat shorter) version.
...OK, as you were.
Here's the rule. Post about figure skating, not about how stupid other posters are.
Last edited by Mathman; 06-19-2013 at 04:09 PM.
Let's assume Yuna got the GOE she did for her flip in the LP
5.16 + .2 + 1.9 = 7.06
4.08 + 1.7 + 1.6 = 7.38 GOE
So no, Yuna is not going to edge Caro out of anything.
You can do the same exercise in the LP.
The point is this, there is no "huge buffer"
If anything, Caro can edge out Yuna because her jumps have similar GOE and her steps always have better GOE.
Yuna scored 7.2 not 7.06 for her 3F in the FS. So I'll use that number would have received a total GOE of 7.26 points, for a total TES of 38.89
Carolina, assuming the +1.6 (plus BV of 8.2) would have received a total GOE 7.38 for a total TES of 37.31
So in this scenario yes, Carolina would edge out Yuna in GOE, however, the with a lower BV, Yuna still would have prevailed in TES.
So adding the PCS they received the total SP scores for Yuna and Carolina are 71.93 and 71.16, respectively. Basically virtual tie, but Yuna edges out by a hair.
So original argument is wrong here, but it's clear that Yuna's higher BV helped her here.
I do think Yuna can gather up a much higher buffer in GOE in the FS though, hence my earlier assention.
That said, based on the math here, I do think Carolina could challenge Yuna, especially if she decides to bring the 3F-3T to the SP.
Carolina, without the fall, would get back -1.7 GOE on the 3x3, earn another 1.6 GOE, so she would gain an additional 3.3 points, thus, giving her the edge in GOE in the SP.
In the LP, with 7 triples, there is no chance a clean Caro would score less GOE than a clean Kim.
Kim was flawless and had about 6 points GOE advantage. Caro made 2 big errors, each cost her over 1 point in GOE, her other elements weren't exactly strong either.
I don't see a "much higher buffer" anywhere.
I see Caro's BV is higher than Yuna's BV in the LP.
If skated perfectly, their TES will be within a point. This is because Kim has harder 3x3, and 3 lutzes total. Caro only has 1 lutz, but one extra triple loop. BV should also be within a point, GOE is also very close.
They will beat each other base on PCS if both are clean. This is where I think Caro should win because her programs are just better.
Also next year the programs will be different. Maybe after going back to full time for a full season, Yuna's program will have higher base value. Maybe another skater will improve so much in the next 8 months that they become better. I don't think so but that's more realistic than to say that if one of the other ladies skates clean they would beat Yuna when she's at her best.
Robeye brought up a good point--in that why are we assuming, for our comparison of hypothetical programs, a program by Yuna that has very high probability of being 100% clean vs. programs by Carolina and Mao with very low chances of 100% clean? In fairness, we should consider cases in which Yuna upgrades her tech content to a level that maximizes her scoring potential while being no less likely to be 100% clean than either Mao or Carolina. For instance, Yuna could include the 3Loop in her program while repeating both the Lutz and the Flip in the LP. While her chances of going clean would be slim, it certainly wouldn't be any more far-fetched than Mao doing a 100% clean 8-triple LP or Carolina doing a clean 7-triple LP at the Olympics. After all, Yuna herself has actually executed a few 7-triple programs in her past skating career. Just some further comments based on Robeye's post, which seems to have been overlooked in all the heated back-and-forth in this thread.