That said, my opinion is based on what I think would happen for them to be clean in the first place, not if they would do these hypothetical layouts clean. I agree with Robeye that you have to put some probability analysis into making an educational guess. I don't think Mao would go clean doing such a tough layout because she has yet to show she can as of late.
I would actually put more of my money on Carolina because she has done a 3F-3T in competition as of late and doesn't UR. Her mistakes seem to be silly ones rather than ones reflecting bad technique. However, I don't think she will have enough in GOE and PCS to make up for what will be likely a clean BV from Yuna.
Temporarily closed for thread management. Watch this space for the grand opening of the new, improved (if somewhat shorter) version.
...OK, as you were.
Here's the rule. Post about figure skating, not about how stupid other posters are.
Last edited by Mathman; 06-19-2013 at 04:09 PM.
Let's assume Yuna got the GOE she did for her flip in the LP
5.16 + .2 + 1.9 = 7.06
4.08 + 1.7 + 1.6 = 7.38 GOE
So no, Yuna is not going to edge Caro out of anything.
You can do the same exercise in the LP.
The point is this, there is no "huge buffer"
If anything, Caro can edge out Yuna because her jumps have similar GOE and her steps always have better GOE.
Yuna scored 7.2 not 7.06 for her 3F in the FS. So I'll use that number would have received a total GOE of 7.26 points, for a total TES of 38.89
Carolina, assuming the +1.6 (plus BV of 8.2) would have received a total GOE 7.38 for a total TES of 37.31
So in this scenario yes, Carolina would edge out Yuna in GOE, however, the with a lower BV, Yuna still would have prevailed in TES.
So adding the PCS they received the total SP scores for Yuna and Carolina are 71.93 and 71.16, respectively. Basically virtual tie, but Yuna edges out by a hair.
So original argument is wrong here, but it's clear that Yuna's higher BV helped her here.
I do think Yuna can gather up a much higher buffer in GOE in the FS though, hence my earlier assention.
That said, based on the math here, I do think Carolina could challenge Yuna, especially if she decides to bring the 3F-3T to the SP.