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Thread: What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

  1. #256
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    Quote Originally Posted by cooper View Post
    yes you are.. and others as well when they're making assumptions that yuna is arrogant etc..but when you looked at this year's worlds.. yuna was all class.. someone who brought her A game and her haters are still trying to discredit anything..
    I was replying to Jaylee's post--I suggest you read his/her original post to which I referred to.

    However, it looks like that post has been deleted

    This is actually quite funny--I love Yuna, now I'm getting attacked by other Yuna fans for questioning Jaylee's assertion that JSF is political and corrupt.

    With that, I'm outta here.

  2. #257
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Robeye brought up a good point--in that why are we assuming, for our comparison of hypothetical programs, a program by Yuna that has very high probability of being 100% clean vs. programs by Carolina and Mao with very low chances of 100% clean? In fairness, we should consider cases in which Yuna upgrades her tech content to a level that maximizes her scoring potential while being no less likely to be 100% clean than either Mao or Carolina. For instance, Yuna could include the 3Loop in her program while repeating both the Lutz and the Flip in the LP. While her chances of going clean would be slim, it certainly wouldn't be any more far-fetched than Mao doing a 100% clean 8-triple LP or Carolina doing a clean 7-triple LP at the Olympics. After all, Yuna herself has actually executed a few 7-triple programs in her past skating career. Just some further comments based on Robeye's post, which seems to have been overlooked in all the heated back-and-forth in this thread.
    I think it is because the premise is what would happen if they all went clean, presumably with their planned programs. There are already plenty of discussions and threads about who people think will win. But the probability of going clean doesn't factor into this hypothetical since they are already assumed to go clean. If we're talking maximization of scoring potential, Caro's program doesn't maximize her scoring potential either, as Caro could also put 2 lutzes, 2 flips, etc. so that would be a whole different discussion. I think that would be an interesting discussion to have, but it is a different issue from the hypothetical of clean planned programs.

  3. #258
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Temporarily closed for thread management. Watch this space for the grand opening of the new, improved (if somewhat shorter) version.

    ...OK, as you were.

    Here's the rule. Post about figure skating, not about how stupid other posters are.
    Obviously the rule has been applied selectively. Yunabots get a green card to talk about how stupid other posters are instead of talking about figure skating. It's actually a good thing because thanks to that they can be seen in their true colors, which I don't mind at all. :
    Quote Originally Posted by Melon View Post
    I'm sorry but are you seriously dumb?
    In a hypotheical situation, Mao is able to receive +2s or +3s on GOE and beat Yuna Kim. I honestly feel like Im talking to a mentally disabled person. How are you not conprehending this? Anything new? Yes, your stupidity going more than above and beyond.
    Quote Originally Posted by vera01 View Post
    And no, Yuna would not have won against clean Caro or Mao
    You know that how? Seem like you fail to give a proof of your claim, so your team switched into plain insults. Nothing new here. But it doesn't work with me. I am immune from trolling.
    That's a cheat to compare a hypothetical situation (+3 GOE to Yuna's rivals for everything) and the real one (the score that she got at Worlds). Compare the hypothetical with hypothetical, like giving Yuna +3 GOE for everything as well. And real with real. Once again, here's the protocal of the recent Worlds:http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._SP_Scores.pdf . You can see Caro's and Mao's mistakes. Now tell me how exactly they would have been able to cover the gap of 22/21 points accordingly if they hadn't make those mistakes. They wouldn't. That's the point. Yuna was shamefully overscored that made it's impossible to her rivals to reach her even if they skated clean. Disgusting judging.

  4. #259
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Robeye brought up a good point--in that why are we assuming, for our comparison of hypothetical programs, a program by Yuna that has very high probability of being 100% clean vs. programs by Carolina and Mao with very low chances of 100% clean? In fairness, we should consider cases in which Yuna upgrades her tech content to a level that maximizes her scoring potential while being no less likely to be 100% clean than either Mao or Carolina. For instance, Yuna could include the 3Loop in her program while repeating both the Lutz and the Flip in the LP. While her chances of going clean would be slim, it certainly wouldn't be any more far-fetched than Mao doing a 100% clean 8-triple LP or Carolina doing a clean 7-triple LP at the Olympics. After all, Yuna herself has actually executed a few 7-triple programs in her past skating career. Just some further comments based on Robeye's post, which seems to have been overlooked in all the heated back-and-forth in this thread.
    For two reasons:

    1) Because it's fun.
    2) Because it gives us an idea of how technically-packed either Carolina or Mao, her closest competitors, would have to build their programs in order to possibly overcome YuNa's highly predictable layout with very high scores. There are way too many variables to make an accurate prediction, of course, but it would also be interesting to see how they approach the upcoming Olympic season with all this in mind. Will they have the skeleton of the layouts ready by the beginning of the season? Or will they modify it depending on how things are going, where they are placing, etc.?

  5. #260
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    You know that how? Seem like you fail to give a proof of your claim, so your team switched into plain insults. Nothing new here. But it doesn't work with me. I am immune from trolling.
    That's a cheat to compare a hypothetical situation (+3 GOE to Yuna's rivals for everything) and the real one (the score that she got at Worlds). Compare the hypothetical with hypothetical, like giving Yuna +3 GOE for everything as well. And real with real. Once again, here's the protocal of the recent Worlds:http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._SP_Scores.pdf . You can see Caro's and Mao's mistakes. Now tell me how exactly they would have been able to cover the gap of 22/21 points accordingly if they hadn't make those mistakes. They wouldn't. That's the point. Yuna was shamefully overscored that made it's impossible to her rivals to reach her even if they skated clean. Disgusting judging.
    Kim has not received that much GOEs except in FS at 2013 World. I can't remember when she got +3 on spin or step in the past. It was special case.

    when i think she has not received so many +3 GOE like in FS in World. I thought and guess, it was because of she underscored in SP, So when she justified her winning with perfect FS, judges had generous judgement(especially on spin and steps) on purpose. Anyway, It's just guess..

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    ^ That sums it up well (especially #1 for me). Fun and boredom cuz it's a long off season :(

  7. #262
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    Quote Originally Posted by venlac View Post
    Kim has not received that much GOEs except in FS at 2013 World. I can't remember when she got +3 on spin or step in the past. It was special case.
    The right word has been found- Yuna's score at Worlds-2013is just the special case. I wonder how much it helps the skaters and to the audience and, which is much more important, to the justice in this sport that go abused. No one cares what title you put on her win and score. The cheat took place and that's the only thing that counts.

  8. #263
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerio2 View Post
    I think it is because the premise is what would happen if they all went clean, presumably with their planned programs. There are already plenty of discussions and threads about who people think will win. But the probability of going clean doesn't factor into this hypothetical since they are already assumed to go clean. If we're talking maximization of scoring potential, Caro's program doesn't maximize her scoring potential either, as Caro could also put 2 lutzes, 2 flips, etc. so that would be a whole different discussion. I think that would be an interesting discussion to have, but it is a different issue from the hypothetical of clean planned programs.
    It still does apply, because we cannot fairly limit Yuna in this hypothetical scenario to just her standard layout while assuming Mao can be 100% clean with her 8-triple LP. We need to max them all out with programs that each of them are even remotely capable of.

    To elaborate, what I'm really saying is, if we assume away the likelihood of success, then why limit Yuna to 6 triples in the LP? Why not assume a 7-triple with the following:

    3Lz+3T
    3Lo
    3F
    2A+3T
    3Lz+2T+2L
    3S
    2A

    Unrealistic and highly unlikely, you might say? But that's exactly what we're supposedly taking out of consideration (i.e., the likelihood of success) in this discussion.

  9. #264
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Robeye brought up a good point--in that why are we assuming, for our comparison of hypothetical programs, a program by Yuna that has very high probability of being 100% clean vs. programs by Carolina and Mao with very low chances of 100% clean? In fairness, we should consider cases in which Yuna upgrades her tech content to a level that maximizes her scoring potential while being no less likely to be 100% clean than either Mao or Carolina. For instance, Yuna could include the 3Loop in her program while repeating both the Lutz and the Flip in the LP. While her chances of going clean would be slim, it certainly wouldn't be any more far-fetched than Mao doing a 100% clean 8-triple LP or Carolina doing a clean 7-triple LP at the Olympics. After all, Yuna herself has actually executed a few 7-triple programs in her past skating career. Just some further comments based on Robeye's post, which seems to have been overlooked in all the heated back-and-forth in this thread.
    Xactly, Krislite.

    If the probability of success of Mao's and Caro's hypothetical programs were, say, 5% (for the sake of example; I have not calculated the actual probabilities; that would require investments of time and effort of a different level entirely), then, logically, we need to compare them to a hypothetical Yuna program whose scoring is maximized at the same 5% probability level. Can we construct such a "stretch" Yuna program for which the score exceeds that for the hypothetical Caro/Mao programs in question? I am very comfortable that the answer is a resounding "yes", and to spare.

    Conversely, if the probability of success of Yuna's current layout is, say, 60% (again, I pulled this number out of a hat for argument sake, and have not actually derived it from historical data. Nevertheless, it is the order of magnitude of difference that is important in this argument, not decimal precision), can we construct a program for either Caro or Mao that, based on historical scores and success rates for the elements and components, would have overall probabilities of 60% (that is to say, that matches the probability of success of Yuna's current layout), and which even come close to matching or exceeding Yuna's score? (Let's say very roughly that Yuna could score 220-225 if she did every single thing in a 6-triple layout to the best of her demonstrated ability). Even without crunching all the numbers, I would be willing to wager a large sum that the answer would be a resounding "no", and to spare.

    Again, this is a straight analysis that demonstrates why Yuna is rightly considered the favorite for Sochi, but such analyses are not a cast-iron, unfailing prediction of the future. There is still a very substantial possibility that Yuna will not skate clean in the one-time, go-big-or-go-home
    atmosphere of the Olympics, as well as a still-material chance that Caro or Mao will either skate clean, or come sufficiently close to it that, in combination with Yuna mistakes, one or the other might win. I would not lay a wager on it without being offered very, very advantageous odds, but the chance exists even so.

    My point is that the question as originally framed has very little relevance, meaning, or usefulness. If we allow stretch programs where the prospects of clean execution are extremely low to be compared to Yuna's relatively high probability current layout, without taking due account of probabilities, then why limit it to just Mao and Caro?

    The question could be easily re-cast, without violating the spirit or the logic of the original in any way, to ask: What would the podium be if Kostner, Asada, Kim, Wagner, Suzuki, Gold, Osmond, Murakami, Sotnikova, Li, Tukt, etc. etc. etc. etc. (insert any other senior skaters here) all skated clean?

    One could just as well as argue that, on a good day, doing all that she is capable of, one could construct programs for Sotnikova that win Gold, or that we will have a headline of Gold2.

    If you object to those scenarios on the premise that these outcomes are relatively improbable based on track record, my reply would be: what possible concern can there be that such scenarios only have a 2% probability of success, when you have admitted as legitimate the scenarios for Mao and Caro with a 5% probability? The difference between the hypothetical Caro/Mao programs and the fantasy programs for the rest of the young pack (say, 5% vs. 2%), I argue, is far, far smaller than the difference between Caro/Mao and Yuna's current layout (say, 5% vs. 60%) as far as probabilities go.

    In other words, the answer becomes reduced to, if not an outright reductio ad absurdum ("Marchei will win if she goes clean with the skate of her life!!!! She's done beautiful triple-triples in practice and don't you deny it!!!!"), then to the level of self-evident truism. "Anyone can win! It ain't over 'til it's over! That's why they actually hold the competition!"

    All of the latter cannot be denied, but did we really need an extended thread about it?

  10. #265
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    The right word has been found- Yuna's score at Worlds-2013is just the special case. I wonder how much it helps the skaters and to the audience and, which is much more important, to the justice in this sport that go abused. No one cares what title you put on her win and score. The cheat took place and that's the only thing that counts.
    Sorry, dearie. No matter what judging system you apply, Yuna won Worlds 2013 fair and square. Nobody will remember the score you find so repulsive, since it was completely immaterial to the results, which were obvious to the audience and the competing skaters. On the contrary, the only thing people will remember is that she walked away with an indisputable victory.

  11. #266
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    The right word has been found- Yuna's score at Worlds-2013is just the special case. I wonder how much it helps the skaters and to the audience and, which is much more important, to the justice in this sport that go abused. No one cares what title you put on her win and score. The cheat took place and that's the only thing that counts.
    Ok. Then, Now you knew that it was special case? It is so good thing. Then, how about wait the GPS, and judgement? believe me. Judges will not give her score like in FS in 2013 World. Then, would you fine?

  12. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Sorry, dearie. No matter what judging system you apply, Yuna won Worlds 2013 fair and square. Nobody will remember the score you find so repulsive, since it was completely immaterial to the results, which were obvious to the audience and the competing skaters. On the contrary, the only thing people will remember is that she walked away with an indisputable victory.
    We all know how solid and indisputable Yuna's victory was -- for goodness' sake, the crowd was cheering so loudly that you couldn't even hear the last 10-15 seconds of the music. let's talk is just deriving pleasure from making ridiculous statements to get a reaction, assuming that ALL Yuna fans must be Yunabots. That's why I haven't bothered replying to him/her.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    We all know how solid and indisputable Yuna's victory was -- for goodness' sake, the crowd was cheering so loudly that you couldn't even hear the last 10-15 seconds of the music. let's talk is just deriving pleasure from making ridiculous statements to get a reaction, assuming that ALL Yuna fans must be Yunabots. That's why I haven't bothered replying to him/her.
    You and me both. let's talk checks off all of the bullet points for trolling. Frankly, I am surprised that (s)he has been allowed to get away with it for so long.

  14. #269
    Tripping on the Podium alfoalfo's Avatar
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    This thread was giving me a hernia ugh.. Why do people hate a skater? Doesn't make sense to me, when you don't even know the person in real life. Or even dislike a skater for doing what they'e trained their entire life to do? What just because they get great marks for showcasing their skills and talents when t matters?

    Anyway, what is everyone's definition of clean? Is it being perfect or just not not falling or missing any elements?

    I think if all three are technically perfect, Mao has the upper hand cos she's got the much higher BV, but artistically I personally think Yuna and Caro have the edge as they both have the 'it' factor when it comes to interpretation. Just IMO.

    So if all 3 are clean, it just depends on the panel of judges as well as the skating order. In the end, who gets on the higher podium will be out of the skaters' control.

  15. #270
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post
    The right word has been found- Yuna's score at Worlds-2013is just the special case. I wonder how much it helps the skaters and to the audience and, which is much more important, to the justice in this sport that go abused. No one cares what title you put on her win and score. The cheat took place and that's the only thing that counts.
    Care to provide proof of this so-called cheat?
    Is that all you've got
    You must stock up on tinfoil
    Gee, I guess All that Skate money, pachinko parlor money, Lotte and Maruhan money, have been secretly divested somewhere under the mattresses of the JSF and also into the judges pockets. Well there, gee goshdarnit, you have your proof of a cheat right there. UN-NON-INDISPUTABLE!!!

    You're so sad...

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