I'm well aware that jaylee is a Yuna fan; I'm not sure how that's relevant.
ETA: Thank you, bara1968. I never saw the posts, but misunderstandings are quite common when communicating through text. Whatever the context of these posts was, mskater93 was making a case FOR Yuna, not AGAINST her.
Anyway, sorry for any confusion.
I'm a fan of Yu-Na, Carolina, Mao, Akiko, Ashley, Kanako, Adelina, Zijun, Christina, Kaetlyn, Elizaveta and about a dozen other skaters. The only skater anyone could call me a "bot" for is Michelle Kwan, though Michelle predates talk of "bots"; ubers is the preferred moniker. But even in my uberness I'm not so blind that I can't see where Michelle was lacking. Some people get so wrapped up in their fanaticism that they can't accept any kind opinion (or sometimes even facts) which contradict their views. I try to avoid those kind of people...
I enjoy skating a lot more now than I did when Michelle was competing b/c I get to cheer for everyone. That's the beauty in being a fan of the sport in general rather than clinging to just one skater. I'm not emotionally invested in any of these ladies so win or lose, I'm generally happy b/c someone I like ends up winning. I do disagree with results or criticize skaters from time to time but I don't bash skaters. I try to make all of my criticisms constructive and voice my opinions without insisting others agree with me (cause that's annoying...).
Going back to the discussion: The question is "What would podium in Sochi if Kostner/Asada and Kim go clean?"
One way to look at it, as many have, is to look at what would happen if they were clean on their planned content; a perfectly reasonable way to go at it.
But for me the question is under what conditions would they would "go clean." So for me, you have to look in what it would take for those three skaters to skate clean programs. Asada has a potentially high BV but she has yet to skate a high BV program clean, with the exception of 4CC and even then she got a few URs in the FS on those key elements (3A, 3F-3L and 2A-3T).
Here's Mao's BV at the last few WCs in the FS:
2007: 65.48 (3A, 3F-3L, 2A-3T<)
2008: 56.40 (Waxel(zero points), 3F-3T, 3F-3L<)
2009: 57.25 (3A-2T, 3A<)
2010: 59.30 (3A. 3A<-2T)
2011: 51.20 (3A<<, 2A-3T<<)
2012: 39.88 (1A, 2A-2T)
2013: 62.30 (3A (major error); no 3-3; 2A-3T)
For the record here's Carolina's BV during the same period
2007: 47.53 (lots of pops)
2008: 64.28 (but lots of -GOE; She did attempt 3F-3T-2T and 2A-3T)
2009: 35.16 (not a single clean triple).
2010: 55.27 (3F-3T)
2011: 51.62 (2A-3T)
2012: 53.04 (2A-3T)
2013: 50.75 (3F-3T; fall and downgrade on 3S)
2007: 52.61 (3F-3T; 2A-3T, low BV due to zayaking)
2008: 58.51 (3F-3T, 2A-3T)
2009: 52.89 (3F-3T, zero points for a spin)
2010: 57.05 (3Z-3T, 2A-3T, fall on 3S, waxel)
2011: 51.70 (3Z-3T; two pops)
2013: 58.22 (3Z-3T)
In general, Mao has had a higher BV than Yuna, but because she has lower +GOE, she has always lost to Yuna ultimately.
Carolina has managed to get on the podium in the last three WC with much lower BV than her competitors. At 2012 Worlds, where she won, Akiko (55.21), Ashley (57.70), Alena (56.57) Kexin Zhang (55.40), Yretha (55.63) all had higher BV. Of course Carolina got the highest PCS scores, but she got a tremendous amount of +GOE to get the highest TES for the competition.
Carolina is most likely go clean, for the most part, on her current content. Even if she didn't upgrade her current content, I think it would be enough to beat Mao. Carolina, to her credit, has developed a smart strategy that involved her skating clean and grabbing that +GOE.
But I think Carolina needs a higher BV if she wants to beat Yuna, and I'm not sure if she would necessarily be clean with harder content, though if she simply did a 3F-3T in the SP, (which she has done in competition; so totally possible) she could give Yuna a run for her money.
Mao, has had an inconsistent 2A-3T (no UR) at the World stage (though as kwaniac, pointed out was clean this year). The last time she did a 3F-3L clean was 2007 and a 3F-3T was in 2008. So that's why I don't think (based on current analysis) that she could do a high BV program clean. I'd love for her to prove me wrong though.
So that's why I'd stick to my podium of Yu-Na, Carolina and Mao.
But hey it's early, things could change, right?
In regards to the rest of your post, I think you're missing the point of the hypothetical scenario. I'm taking clean to mean no URs, no negative GOE, an assumption that every element was executed well. Mao's BV of her SP and FS along with +GOE (not as much as Yu-Na or Carolina of course) and a hike in her PCS (which would happen if she were to skate cleanly) would make it very difficult for anyone to catch her over the course of the competition.