Still it doesn't change the fact that Mao hasn't had the 3F-3L in years. and the 2A-3T has not been super consistent. She has about a 50 percent hit rate as far as not getting a UR 2A-3T.
I understand that people are approaching the hypothetical situation differently than I do. My answer is taking a different at that the question. I believe that if you're going to talk about "going clean" I have to bring into the discussion what it would take to go clean. I do not think that skating clean for Mao, in her current state, would mean skating a high BV or FS. As I noted, Mao has higher BV than Yuna in the past, yet with a few exceptions, Yuna has always come on top.In regards to the rest of your post, I think you're missing the point of the hypothetical scenario. I'm taking clean to mean no URs, no negative GOE, an assumption that every element was executed well. Mao's BV of her SP and FS along with +GOE (not as much as Yu-Na or Carolina of course) and a hike in her PCS (which would happen if she were to skate cleanly) would make it very difficult for anyone to catch her over the course of the competition.
I think a clean program for Mao with no URs and no negative GOE would mean not including all those hard elements.
I agree with Robeye that you cannot discuss a hypothetical situation without talking about probability.
Let's say we have money going on this. Unless you were independently wealthy or willing to take a huge risk, you won't bet on Mao on the bases of her hitting a program that includes jump combinations that she currently has a low hit rate on. That said, yes, if the stars align and she does that high BV program, the person who bet on that hypothetical situation would be quite rich.
I think it's a safer bet to bet on Yuna, who has a high-ish BV and solid GOE. Likewise, Carolina has a low BV but high GOE, so that's why I think she would be a safe bet for silver.