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Thread: What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Mao's 2A-3T was clean this year and earned 1.40 points in GOE.
    Oh you're right. Sorry, been looking at too many PDFs....will edit.

    Still it doesn't change the fact that Mao hasn't had the 3F-3L in years. and the 2A-3T has not been super consistent. She has about a 50 percent hit rate as far as not getting a UR 2A-3T.

    In regards to the rest of your post, I think you're missing the point of the hypothetical scenario. I'm taking clean to mean no URs, no negative GOE, an assumption that every element was executed well. Mao's BV of her SP and FS along with +GOE (not as much as Yu-Na or Carolina of course) and a hike in her PCS (which would happen if she were to skate cleanly) would make it very difficult for anyone to catch her over the course of the competition.
    I understand that people are approaching the hypothetical situation differently than I do. My answer is taking a different at that the question. I believe that if you're going to talk about "going clean" I have to bring into the discussion what it would take to go clean. I do not think that skating clean for Mao, in her current state, would mean skating a high BV or FS. As I noted, Mao has higher BV than Yuna in the past, yet with a few exceptions, Yuna has always come on top.

    I think a clean program for Mao with no URs and no negative GOE would mean not including all those hard elements.

    I agree with Robeye that you cannot discuss a hypothetical situation without talking about probability.

    Let's say we have money going on this. Unless you were independently wealthy or willing to take a huge risk, you won't bet on Mao on the bases of her hitting a program that includes jump combinations that she currently has a low hit rate on. That said, yes, if the stars align and she does that high BV program, the person who bet on that hypothetical situation would be quite rich.

    I think it's a safer bet to bet on Yuna, who has a high-ish BV and solid GOE. Likewise, Carolina has a low BV but high GOE, so that's why I think she would be a safe bet for silver.

  2. #302
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    Just like last year, even without the lutz, her TES was 63+ for a 5 triples program. Her PCS would be 70+. If she got 133+ in the LP, she's locked for a medal. I don't see anyone else beating this score with even a light out skate.

    Caro at her best should beat Yuna at her best. If your rival is a lot more consistent than you are, and you need to be at your best to beat your rival at her best, it's a hard decision to risk a medal and go all the way for gold. I think she might do a safe layout next year to secure a medal.

    Fantasy land, Mao >> Caro ~= Yuna.
    Real world Sochi, Yuna >> Caro > Mao.

    I like fantasy land more.

  3. #303
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    ITA. I called it "happy piddles" scoring . The judges were so excited to see her knock her program out of the park they let the high scores fly. There was no question she was the winner and like you said, whether she won by 5 points or 25 didn't matter b/c no one can legitimately argue that she didn't deserve to win. I do think she was overscored at worlds this year in the FS (I actually think she was a tad underscored in the SP) but in the end, she was the clear winner so the numbers are irrelevant.

    Had she skated before Carolina or Mao, I don't think her score would have been that high...it'd have been high, but not that high. I mean, that was less than 2 points off of her Vancouver score! (150.06 vs 148.34). When I did my scoring my numbers for Yu-Na came up to 140.52. (Mao - 134.90, Carolina - 130.25). I feel like the judges were very generous with GOE, especially the +3s and that was the difference in my scoring versus what the judges came up with. Just to compare, Yu-Na received a total of 7 +3 GOEs in Vancouver; at worlds this year she received 33. I think that has something to do with the way the GOE are factored in now but it also has to do with the excitement of seeing her come back after so long and still be able to put on that kind of performance. They wanted to reward her for that...and on a night where the only other people who skated cleanly were not going to medal (Zijun Li and Kanako Murakami), why wouldn't they reward her?
    Even if YuNa had skated before Mao and Caro, It would not have made a big difference. In Vancouver, YuNa skated right before Mao but got 150+. This was not 6.0 and it was the final group. If you go to Youtbue, you will find a few commentators who thought it was better than her 2010 performance, and some of them even thought that it was the greatest performance ever they saw. So, I am sure some of judges thought it was really great performance and they gave points they thought it deserved.

  4. #304
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    Just like last year, even without the lutz, her TES was 63+ for a 5 triples program. Her PCS would be 70+. If she got 133+ in the LP, she's locked for a medal. I don't see anyone else beating this score with even a light out skate.

    Caro at her best should beat Yuna at her best. If your rival is a lot more consistent than you are, and you need to be at your best to beat your rival at her best, it's a hard decision to risk a medal and go all the way for gold. I think she might do a safe layout next year to secure a medal.

    Fantasy land, Mao >> Caro ~= Yuna.
    Real world Sochi, Yuna >> Caro > Mao.

    I like fantasy land more.
    Fantasy land would be a lot more interesting. Though I think to get to fantasy land, Mao has a bigger hill to climb than Carolina. Carolina's key to fantasy land is a 2A-3T with the 3F-3T in the FS and a 3F-3T in the SP (or even just a 3F instead of a 3Lo with her 3T-3T). Since she has done 3F-3T and 2A-3T in competition this is possible.

    Mao's path to fantasy land requires her getting rid of those pesky -3T URs and getting a consistent 3A.

    However, if we're going to take about fantasy land, what if Yuna put the 3L back? She would have a 7-triple program again with a 3Z-3T and her fantastic 2A-3T.

  5. #305
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    My version of fantasy land: a tie for gold! I'm serious. I could just be happy for all the winners and not feel the sting of someone not getting the gold.

    Anyone know a good, reliable genie?

  6. #306
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    I do not think that skating clean for Mao, in her current state, would mean skating a high BV or FS. As I noted, Mao has higher BV than Yuna in the past, yet with a few exceptions, Yuna has always come on top.

    Mao ends up with a higher BV than Yu-Na but it's often less than what it could be b/c she's received URs or doubles/singles a jump which reduces the BV of her program. Even though that number is often higher than Yu-Na's BV Mao also receives -GOE which docks even more points from her already reduced BV score. That's why Yu-Na can have less BV and still top Mao...she executes her lower BV and receive all of the BV points plus she gains points in GOE. So even though her BV is lower, she rarely loses points on her elements whereas Mao frequently loses points on her elements.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    I think a clean program for Mao with no URs and no negative GOE would mean not including all those hard elements.
    You're right. Executing all of those difficult elements is why Mao successfully completing that jump layout cleanly is such a tall order...so that makes sense if that's the scenario you're thinking about. I took the OP's meaning of the thread not include probability in the scenario of Mao and Carolina skating cleanly b/c (in a way) that defeats the purpose. In the scenario of a perfect program given the content Mao intended to do at worlds (which was SP: 3A, 3F-2L, 3L -- FS: 3A, 3F-3L, 3Lz(e), 2A-3T, 3L, 3S, 3F-2L-2L), mathematically, Mao comes out on top. Yu-Na and Carolina don't have the content to overcome two 3As and a 2-3 over the course of the competition. I would expect Mao to place below both of them in GOE and PCS, but Mao's BV in addition to the slight boost she'd get from GOE would make it very very difficult for either Yu-Na or Carolina to catch her.

  7. #307
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    Quote Originally Posted by cosmos View Post
    Even if YuNa had skated before Mao and Caro, It would not have made a big difference. In Vancouver, YuNa skated right before Mao but got 150+. This was not 6.0 and it was the final group. If you go to Youtbue, you will find a few commentators who thought it was better than her 2010 performance, and some of them even thought that it was the greatest performance ever they saw. So, I am sure some of judges thought it was really great performance and they gave points they thought it deserved.
    I doubt if it would have made a big difference but I do think her score would have been a little lower.

    Yu-Na was the clear favorite coming into Vancouver so when she nailed that program there was pretty much no doubt she was the winner. The only way someone would beat her was if she made a mistake...then the door would have been open and the only person with a prayer of catching her was Mao. But Yu-Na was flawless which means it didn't matter what Mao or anyone else did...no one was topping that performance.

    I guess I'll have to disagree with the commentators...it was great she hit the jumps but overall I don't think that was better than Gershwin or even Homage for that matter.

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    I'm just gutted for Caro, she doesn't have the fantasy win nor the reality win.
    Fantasy, her absolute best TES isn't strong enough.
    Reality, her consistency isn't strong enough.

    Mao and Yuna are still the two to beat in any scenarios, even though they have weaker programs. The new system doesn't reward great choreography and interpretation enough.

  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by FlattFan View Post
    I'm just gutted for Caro, she doesn't have the fantasy win nor the reality win.
    Fantasy, her absolute best TES isn't strong enough.
    Reality, her consistency isn't strong enough.

    Mao and Yuna are still the two to beat in any scenarios, even though they have weaker programs. The new system doesn't reward great choreography and interpretation enough.
    In the fantasy world where choreography and interpretation are weighted more, of the three Carolina is the winner hands down for me .

    Mao gets silver. Her programs were nice this year. Her SP allowed some of that old Mao personality to shine through but it was definitely recycled from Mirai Nagasu's 2007-2008 SP. Her FS was simple but nicely done...but again, nothing really new.

    Yu-Na gets bronze. Both programs were nice but they lacked originality IMO. Mao's did too but I found hers to be more entertaining. Sadly, both Kiss of Vampire and Les Mis bored me a bit...

  10. #310
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    Yu-Na gets bronze. Both programs were nice but they lacked originality IMO. Mao's did too but I found hers to be more entertaining. Sadly, both Kiss of Vampire and Les Mis bored me a bit...
    Hmm then this would be somehow good news for you : in her interview for upcoming iceshow, Yuna said new LP program for next season would be completely different from Les Mis. (Even though herself thought Les Mis was so good that she even wanted to keep it for Olympics.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    Fantasy land would be a lot more interesting. Though I think to get to fantasy land, Mao has a bigger hill to climb than Carolina. Carolina's key to fantasy land is a 2A-3T with the 3F-3T in the FS and a 3F-3T in the SP (or even just a 3F instead of a 3Lo with her 3T-3T). Since she has done 3F-3T and 2A-3T in competition this is possible.
    It will be interesting to see whether Carolina goes for the more difficult in the SP to try to keep up with Yuna or if her plan is to concede the gold and attempt content she is likelier to nail. We know Mao will go for the gold, but she will probably make a few errors that would allow a relatively clean Carolina to win silver.

    As Carolina's coach, I'd probably plan her content around skating clean and not even trying to catch Yuna on TES. Carolina hasn't skated great at the Olympics and I think it would be hard for her to successfully attempt the content needed to match Yuna. As Mao's coach, I'd probably plan her programs around winning gold. Unlike Caro, Mao already has a silver medal and needs a gold to cement her legacy alongside Yuna as one of the greatest ever.

  12. #312
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    Quote Originally Posted by bara1968 View Post
    Hmm then this would be somehow good news for you : in her interview for upcoming iceshow, Yuna said new LP program for next season would be completely different from Les Mis. (Even though herself thought Les Mis was so good that she even wanted to keep it for Olympics.)
    That's good to know. Les Mis was nice but when I compare it to her other FS it just did nothing for me.

    I guess I can give up hope to see Homage performed competitively again. That, IMO, had the potential to be a masterpiece program. I thought the music was wonderful and much more original than anything else she'd ever skated to and the choreography was very beautiful. It had a unique feeling that most programs lack...as a result, I was let down to see her go the oft traveled Les Mis route this year. Compared to Homage it felt like a step back.

    Oh well. I hope these final two competitive programs are great. Her Bond/Gershwin combo was amazing so I'm going to keep my fingers crossed.

  13. #313
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    Quote Originally Posted by let`s talk View Post

    You know that how? Seem like you fail to give a proof of your claim, so your team switched into plain insults. Nothing new here. But it doesn't work with me. I am immune from trolling.
    That's a cheat to compare a hypothetical situation (+3 GOE to Yuna's rivals for everything) and the real one (the score that she got at Worlds). Compare the hypothetical with hypothetical, like giving Yuna +3 GOE for everything as well. And real with real. Once again, here's the protocal of the recent Worlds:http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._FS_Scores.pdf http://www.isuresults.com/results/wc..._SP_Scores.pdf . You can see Caro's and Mao's mistakes. Now tell me how exactly they would have been able to cover the gap of 22/21 points accordingly if they hadn't make those mistakes. They wouldn't. That's the point. Yuna was shamefully overscored that made it's impossible to her rivals to reach her even if they skated clean. Disgusting judging.
    hahah actually.... if your read my post on #142, the points I gave her, and the GOEs were from Yuna's or Carolina's elements. So why bother do it twice when I can add the similar scores onto Mao's elements instead? Not gonna lie, I did round up some scores, but that shouldn't add up to 3+ points. So the hypothetical score I gave Mao, 239.92-3 = 236.92. Oh Fine, I'll even subtract few GOEs from her 3A so what -3(1.5 each from SP & LP) points? 236.92-3 = 233.92.

    Yuna's best flawless score in Vancouver was 228.56 and the difference from hypothetical Mao's score is 5.4.
    You know what this tells you? Mao has the lead, plus, it would be greater 5.4 now because Yuna will never be able to top that score unless she changes her jump routine (actually that wouldnt even work due to so many changes... Influenced by "cough" JSF). It's sad I actually have to show this to you in math, because a person with common knowledge will able to figure out skater who executes 8 triples will beat a skater with 6 triples.

    You know what else is sad? JSF doing all their work trying to give Yuna as little advantage as possible, but Mao still loses the World title. Yunabots are not pathetic, you're pathetic for not realizing the fact that Mao wins if skate clean. You blame CoP? Ok blame CoP that allows that 70% rule, +3 GOE on 3A alone, removal of spiral, limit on 2A, allowing 3A as single jump in SP. Do you not realize Mao's being spoon fed right now ? CoP is designed for Mao Asada. Yunaflation isn't a problem here, like I mentioned many times, blame Mao for not skating a clean program.
    I can't believe with all these buffs Mao has you still don't think Mao will win if she goes clean. Now that really IS pathetic.

  14. #314
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    Quote Originally Posted by kwanatic View Post
    I guess I'll have to disagree with the commentators...it was great she hit the jumps but overall I don't think that was better than Gershwin or even Homage for that matter.
    I agree. Somehow, I thought she took a mechanical approach at WC which was fair enough since she had a job to do. I felt more emotion behind her Arirang program (probably because its an ode to South Korea), which is why I'm hoping she would bring it back at her FS to do it justice. Even when she got the medal, somehow, I read her like she knew exactly what she had done and winning the gold was simply the result of her skate. I also *don't hate me!* never liked her Gershwin program. My favourite LP of hers would have to be Scheherazade and Homage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCzar View Post
    I agree. Somehow, I thought she took a mechanical approach at WC which was fair enough since she had a job to do. I felt more emotion behind her Arirang program (probably because its an ode to South Korea), which is why I'm hoping she would bring it back at her FS to do it justice. Even when she got the medal, somehow, I read her like she knew exactly what she had done and winning the gold was simply the result of her skate. I also *don't hate me!* never liked her Gershwin program. My favourite LP of hers would have to be Scheherazade and Homage.
    I have just been standing by and reading what others have posted in this thread, but this is where I'll chime in - in agreement. I re-watched Yuna's 2008 performances from Skate America and I was completely blown away. That year she told 1 million steps forward in her presentation (in my opinion), and not only caught up with, but surpassed Mao and her other competitors (Mao up to the 2008 season, in my opinion, left a better artistic impression on me). Her Scheherazade program had so many nuances and unexpected flourishes throughout the Les Mis really didn't have. Also, there is no comparison between her dynamic Danse Macabre and last season's Vampire program (...which actually reminded me of her 2008 sp). Just like in the 2007/08 season, I feel her programs did not show off her strengths and did not inspire me to re-watch her performances, even though she skated a clean program. Anyway, I digress. My point is, it really depends on the programs these girls have for next season, because PCS is the deciding factor between these 3. It is my belief that while Mao has a stronger base value, because of her consistently lower GOEs, Yuna and Carolina should be able to catch up with their consistently higher GOEs.

    Either way, I really am looking forward to next season and hope each of these 3 lovely ladies will be able to skate to their potential so we can put an end to all this arguing and find out for ourselves what would happen!

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