My post is about a technical clean skate, not presentation or subjective things like "engaging with the audience." She has to focus on jumps, not do much else to nail them.
Kim will win if clean. We all know the scores she can post. She will have highest TES because she will receive highest GOE on all her elements ( even with Mao having higher BV ). And she will receive higher components like we saw at 2013 worlds
IMO Kostner will be 2nd. Even with lower BV than Mao she will receive much higher GOE than Mao bringing their TES scores about even. Then on components Kostner will have the edge. It is clear that judges like Kostner more than Mao and will be generous even if kostner has a few faults.
The first page of replies is as far as I could read. Unless I'm missing something, Kostner made 2 mistakes and Yuna won by 21 points. Even had Kostner not made those 2 mistakes, Yuna would have still won by a very, very decisive margin, and that even does not consider her underscore in the short program.
1) YuNa Kim
2) Carolina Kostner
3) Mao Asada
Explanation with disclaimer: I'm trying to be realistic, but ideal, i.e. no one's fixing an edge magically at the Olympics, and I can't really account for how much better or worse the following season's programs will be compared to this year's so these are just approximations based on how his year's programs were relatively received.
YuNa Kim - No major changes to layout, most predictable.
SP: 76.27 (TES=39.09, PCS=37.18)
- I add 2.10 for a clean 3F + 2GOE
- Plus 0.2 GOE to give 3Lz-3T same GOE she gets in LP and is likely to get in SP
- Plus 5.00 to PCS (+1.00 for each category) then factor x0.8. This takes into account expected Olympic inflation, plus the fact that this year's Worlds Ladies' SP was conservatively scored
LP: 148.34 (TES=74.73, PCS=73.61)
- Unchanged because Worlds 2013 is close to her maximum under current system
- PCS is pretty close to the maximum they might give to anyone and since they are all fairly close at their best, I'm not going to distinguish and give everyone YuNa's PCS from the FS since it was the highest. Not arguing that this is how the judges will see it, but I don't think they will vary too much on a lights-out skate between all three and I am being generous for the fun of the thought experiment
SP: 76.36 (TES=38.51, PCS=37.85) - she wins the SP in this scenario
- I upgraded her 3-3 from 3T-3T to 3F-3T with +2 GOE's across the board and some +3's for a total GOE of 1.60 (same as YuNa's 3Lz-3T)
- Added 5.00 PCS if skated clean at Olympics (+1 for each category) - then factored x0.8
LP: 146.81 (TES=73.20, PCS=73.61=YuNa's score)
- this time she hits her 3Lo and solo 3S with 10% bonus and +2 GOE each
SP: 71.27 (TES=34.87, PCS=36.40)
- this time she will hit 3A with mostly +1 GOE across, maybe a few judges giving +2 GOE (not really deserved, but she's the only top female skater doing it right now, they like to give bonus points for trying)
- successful 3F-2Lo with +2 GOE
- Upgrading spin from Level 3 to Level 4
- Plus 5.00 PCS with factor
LP: 147.22 (TES=73.61, PCS=73.61=YuNa's)
- Clean 3A with +1's across and some +2's as before
- 3F + 2GOE
- no change to the 3Lz score. She's not going to do it much better, fix the edge, etc.
- Clean 3F-2Lo-2Lo with +2 GOE
The estimate between YuNa and Carolina is so close that it can really go either way if they both happened to go squeaky-clean depending on whose style or programs the judges like better on the two nights.
Mao can close the gap if she adds -3Lo combinations to both SP and LP...very tall order, but not impossible. That would give her a boost of at least +6.6 (2x3.3) points over any -2Lo's she's currently doing...which would tip her into Gold (~225.09 total score).
Asada can only bump out Kostner if she does a lot more technically, she doesn't have the speed and power of Kim or Kostner.
Ok, so I also did a little investigation and counted the scores for LPs only. I took the best scores each lady received this year in any competition and added them up.
The technical score for Carolina is:
3Lz – 7.6 (Worlds free)
2A – 4.3 (worlds free)
3F-3T – 10.3 (worlds free)
FCCoSp4 – 4.5 (Europeans free)
FCSp4 – 4.06 (Both worlds and Europeans free)
3L x – 6.71 (Europeans free)
3T-2T x – 7.04 (both worlds and Europeans free)
3S-2T-2L x – 9.03 (worlds free)
CCoSp4 – 4.43 (worlds free)
StSq4 – 5.9 (Europeans free)
ChSq1 – 3.4 (Europeans free)
3S x – 5.62 (2012 ! worlds free)
Note: the only jump I took from the previous season is a 3S as I believe she can actually land that jump and she will probably change her program layout so that it will come a bit earlier. The technical score is 72.69.
As for Mao we have
3A – 10.07 (4cc sp)
3F-3L< - 8.50 (4cc FS)
3Lz – 5.50 (2012 GPF FS)
3L – 6.50 (4cc FS)
FCCoSp4 – 4.50 (Worlds FS)
2A-3T x – 9.54 (worlds FS)
3S x – 5.52 (Worlds FS)
CCoSp4 – 4.43 (NHK FS)
3F-2L-2L x – 9.99 (4cc FS)
FCoSp4 – 3.77 (GPF FS)
StSq4 – 5.90 (4cc SP)
ChSq – 3.70 (GPF FS)
The technical score is 77.92. Note: I included the 3F-3L with an underrotation on a 3L. If we consider them skating clean, Mao could score about 3 points higher for this combination.
For Yuna it's quite obvious - her technical best is around 74.73.
Important thing to notice is that Yuna definitely got a clean-free-skate boost, so I would expect both Mao and Caro's score to rise up a bit if they're clean.
PCS is a different story. Prettykeys suggested calculating same exact score for all three ladies, the score being 73.61. It's a highly reasonable suggestion, as I also think if clean, the PCS will not vary much - all three are breathtaking. Though I think Caro will come a tiny bit ahead and Mao a little worse than Yuna in PCS.
Final standing in the free skate:
1. Mao 150,53 (77.92+72.61) Could be 3 points more with a rotated 3F-3L.
2. Yuna 148.34 (74.73+73.61)
3. Caro 147.3 (72.69+74.61)
I didn't do the SP scores yet, but it would highly depend on Mao's layout. If she goes for a program with 4 triples clean she will probably come far ahead of both Yuna and Caro but if she doesn't she would be definitely under Yuna, probably even Caro.
Summing up, in an ideal scenario when all 3 go clean, I imagine it's 1. Mao 2. Yuna 3. Caro. Now the only thing left is to calculate the probability of each going clean .
I imagine the SP scores to be higher than that. Mao scored around 74 at 4CC this year and with lower PCS. I don't think if everyone is clean, the scores will be lower than those given in Vancouver.
Normally I would say Mao, if she goes clean with her planned content. How can a skater with 3A, 3-3 in the Sp and 8 triples in the LP (including a 3A) - not to mention pretty good PCS - not win, only COP in its twisted way can explain it. No need to argue that Mao being 100% clean with this content is highly unlikely, next to impossible. But since the thread is IF they are clean, I seriously can't believe Mao is not everyone choice based on her crazy TES. Even if she gets lower GOE, remember, with no edge calls and "<" her GOE will go up too you know. Plus, her spins, steps and spirals are already giving her very good GOE. Since she's theoretically having +10 points cushion on TES she would be unbeatable since she is not 10 points lower on PCS to Mao/Caro.
Next, between Yuna and Caro, I would go with Yuna since her SP is of higher difficulty and she will probably get a PCS for being a world champion, in front of Carolina.
Mao is in an interesting predicament though. She clearly would have to do a much harder program than Kim and Kostner to even possibly win if all three go cleanly. Heck as this thread shows even with a 10+ higher potential base value and pulling off the impossible of skating that inhuman jump layout cleanly, some still dont think for certain she would beat a clean Kim and/or clean Kostner. Kostner may be unlikely to skate clean, but Kim is almost likely to. So does she consider doing an easier program (but still very difficult one) if she cant manage her inhuman jump layout next season? However if she does that she is certain to lose to a typical Kim who she cant hope to beat with similar content, and completely taking the power out of her own hands. Tough situation for her.
Such a contrast to when Kim and Kostner were away and she could get away with only 3 or 4 triples and be certain to win over the likes of Suzuki and Wagner.