What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean | Page 3 | Golden Skate

What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

Mirunna

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 12, 2009
Normally I would say Mao, if she goes clean with her planned content. How can a skater with 3A, 3-3 in the Sp and 8 triples in the LP (including a 3A) - not to mention pretty good PCS - not win, only COP in its twisted way can explain it. No need to argue that Mao being 100% clean with this content is highly unlikely, next to impossible. But since the thread is IF they are clean, I seriously can't believe Mao is not everyone choice based on her crazy TES. Even if she gets lower GOE, remember, with no edge calls and "<" her GOE will go up too you know. Plus, her spins, steps and spirals are already giving her very good GOE. Since she's theoretically having +10 points cushion on TES she would be unbeatable since she is not 10 points lower on PCS to Mao/Caro.
Next, between Yuna and Caro, I would go with Yuna since her SP is of higher difficulty and she will probably get a PCS for being a world champion, in front of Carolina.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Mao is in an interesting predicament though. She clearly would have to do a much harder program than Kim and Kostner to even possibly win if all three go cleanly. Heck as this thread shows even with a 10+ higher potential base value and pulling off the impossible of skating that inhuman jump layout cleanly, some still dont think for certain she would beat a clean Kim and/or clean Kostner. Kostner may be unlikely to skate clean, but Kim is almost likely to. So does she consider doing an easier program (but still very difficult one) if she cant manage her inhuman jump layout next season? However if she does that she is certain to lose to a typical Kim who she cant hope to beat with similar content, and completely taking the power out of her own hands. Tough situation for her.

Such a contrast to when Kim and Kostner were away and she could get away with only 3 or 4 triples and be certain to win over the likes of Suzuki and Wagner.
 

mary01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Mao is in an interesting predicament though. She clearly would have to do a much harder program than Kim and Kostner to even possibly win if all three go cleanly. Heck as this thread shows even with a 10+ higher potential base value and pulling off the impossible of skating that inhuman jump layout cleanly, some still dont think for certain she would beat a clean Kim and/or clean Kostner. Kostner may be unlikely to skate clean, but Kim is almost likely to. So does she consider doing an easier program (but still very difficult one) if she cant manage her inhuman jump layout next season? However if she does that she is certain to lose to a typical Kim who she cant hope to beat with similar content, and completely taking the power out of her own hands. Tough situation for her.

.

Goes to show how big an advantage it is when one is favored by the judges!
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Goes to show how big an advantage it is when one is favored by the judges!

The judges pretty much have their pecking order of who they like most to least in each event. For women it is definitely Kostner and Kim, and Kostner is probably benefiting even more from her newfound popularity with the judges. That is why in dance you see Virtue & Moir and Davis & White with a 6 fall advantage on the others. They are the best but they are put in a new stratosphere. Then you see in pairs Volosozhar & Trankov now have like a 4 fall advantage on all others, including the Germans who for many years were the ones held up majorly even with huge falls and mistakes. COP is really no different than 6.0 in that sense, and in fact more extreme in that sense as there are more points involved.
 

mary01

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
The judges pretty much have their pecking order of who they like most to least in each event. For women it is definitely Kostner and Kim, and Kostner is probably benefiting even more from her newfound popularity with the judges. That is why in dance you see Virtue & Moir and Davis & White with a 6 fall advantage on the others. They are the best but they are put in a new stratosphere. Then you see in pairs Volosozhar & Trankov now have like a 4 fall advantage on all others, including the Germans who for many years were the ones held up majorly even with huge falls and mistakes. COP is really no different than 6.0 in that sense, and in fact more extreme in that sense as there are more points involved.

I agree with most of the post, but i slightly disagree on the ice dancers, atleast the top two ice dancers receive pretty much the same presentation score the same can not be said in singles, and in that regard it's not the same situation.
 

cheerio2

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
I think Asada definitely would win in this case. Skating cleanly an insane, sick and twisted 8 triple program should win over 6 triple programs by the other two. Even if the judges favored Kim and Kostner, I don't think they would be able to ignore a program with both a clean 3A and 3-3. I don't see it happening.
 

torren

Rinkside
Joined
May 29, 2013
pangtongfan;746273athlete said:
Kostner may be unlikely to skate clean, but Kim is almost likely to. So does she consider doing an easier program (but still very difficult one) if she cant manage her inhuman jump layout next season? However if she does that she is certain to lose to a typical Kim who she cant hope to beat with similar content, and completely taking the power out of her own hands. Tough situation for her.

So she is so great. Even If she do not such very difficult jump contents, she still would be top skater over almost everyone elso. But she has incredible conents only for challenge as an athlete
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
Actually, I would include Mao along with Yuna/Caro when it comes to being favored by the judges. Technical panels aren't especially strict to Mao, are they?

I think the most favored skater by both technical panels/judges is Caro. High PCS, high GOEs, etc.
I actually think Yuna and Mao are on par. Technical panels are usually more generous to Mao, while Yuna(when it comes to some of her spins) may have generous judges who give her high +GOEs.
 

philice

Spectator
Joined
Jan 8, 2013
The first page of replies is as far as I could read. Unless I'm missing something, Kostner made 2 mistakes and Yuna won by 21 points. Even had Kostner not made those 2 mistakes, Yuna would have still won by a very, very decisive margin, and that even does not consider her underscore in the short program.

That is exactly the point!
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
Yes. Mao always receive the lowest goe(1~2) on jumps. It proves that Mao is the least favorite of judges.

Well, that's because Caro and Yuna have better jumps. Shouldn't +GOE for 3A with a double-footed landing be considered generous?
 

let`s talk

Match Penalty
Joined
Sep 10, 2009
In terms of inflation Yuna is Chan in a skirt. She just stays on her feet, that's why her wins are usually not questioned. But it doesn't dismiss the whole point of inflation. Moreover, judging by the score she got at Worlds, even if Asada and Kostner would have skated clean, they would have still lost to her, just with twice smaller difference in score. All this kills the competition and sport itself when skaters know in advance that fight and risk is meaningless. That's why ANY inflation, either on a bigger scale (Chan) or a smaller one (Yuna) is always Evil. :disapp:
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
The first page of replies is as far as I could read. Unless I'm missing something, Kostner made 2 mistakes and Yuna won by 21 points. Even had Kostner not made those 2 mistakes, Yuna would have still won by a very, very decisive margin, and that even does not consider her underscore in the short program.

When I remind 2008 Worlds, When kim has simillar competition with her competitors, judges were harsh to her.

Therefore, if three all go clean, show all good performance, I guess she would not Gold.
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
In terms of inflation Yuna is Chan in a skirt. She just stays on her feet, that's why her wins are usually not questioned. But it doesn't dismiss the whole point of inflation. Moreover, judging by the score she got at Worlds, even if Asada and Kostner would have skated clean, they would have still lost to her, just with twice smaller difference in score. All this kills the competition and sport itself when skaters know in advance that fight and risk is meaningless. That's why ANY inflation, either on a bigger scale (Chan) or a smaller one (Yuna) is always Evil. :disapp:

Who knows what would've happened if it was exactly the opposite? Mao is a reigning Olympic Champion and is most consistent skater, too. And she skated two clean programs(8 triples FS) after about two years of break from ice. Her scoring would've been similar to what we see today in ice dance. Yes-3s for GOE and 10s for PCS, and at least 230+ for a total score. After all, judges have absolutely no reason to prefer clean Yuna over a clean Mao. :rolleye:

As I've already said before, technical panels are very strict to Yuna. They're quite generous to Mao. If Mao has a slightly URed jump, they would not give an UR call to those jumps. If Yuna did-well, technical panels would've given her an UR call righ away. When Yuna makes mistakes, judges penalize her quite harshly. It isn't like Mao's scores were never inflated.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
In terms of inflation Yuna is Chan in a skirt. She just stays on her feet, that's why her wins are usually not questioned. But it doesn't dismiss the whole point of inflation. Moreover, judging by the score she got at Worlds, even if Asada and Kostner would have skated clean, they would have still lost to her, just with twice smaller difference in score. All this kills the competition and sport itself when skaters know in advance that fight and risk is meaningless. That's why ANY inflation, either on a bigger scale (Chan) or a smaller one (Yuna) is always Evil. :disapp:

I said before in another thread, if she is the favorite of the judges, it is so strange that kim has been not judge scandal, unfair winning.
In top three, maybe kostner suffered the most of judge scandal.(I thought it was because of european judges) Asada has one scandal in NHK. (I thought it was because of she is the favorite of Japan federation) kim has not, at least once.

also, it is strange, too. Why, when she has similar mistakes with her competitiors in big event, she was always defeated by very small margin(just 1~2)?
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Who knows what would've happened if it was exactly the opposite? Mao is a reigning Olympic Champion and is most consistent skater, too. And she skated two clean programs(8 triples FS) after about two years of break from ice. Her scoring would've been similar to what we see today in ice dance. Yes-3s for GOE and 10s for PCS, and at least 230+ for a total score. After all, judges have absolutely no reason to prefer clean Yuna over a clean Mao. :rolleye:

As I've already said before, technical panels are very strict to Yuna. They're quite generous to Mao. If Mao has a slightly URed jump, they would not give an UR call to those jumps. If Yuna did-well, technical panels would've given her an UR call righ away. When Yuna makes mistakes, judges penalize her quite harshly. It isn't like Mao's scores were never inflated.

I think you meant to type Yuna. Or maybe that Mao is a reigning World Champion? That DOES carry a lot of weight on the international stage (see Carolina this year); I agree with most of what you said, but I think that Mao is also penalized to a correct degree for flawed jumps.
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
I think you meant to type Yuna. Or maybe that Mao is a reigning World Champion? That DOES carry a lot of weight on the international stage (see Carolina this year); I agree with most of what you said, but I think that Mao is also penalized to a correct degree for flawed jumps.

If Mao had been in same situation as Yuna-reigning Olympic Champion, consistent, and has skated two clean programs after two years of break.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
If Mao had been in same situation as Yuna-reigning Olympic Champion, consistent, and has skated two clean programs after two years of break.

Oops, I read that too fast. I think she would have been scored accordingly and deservingly.
 
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