What would podium in Sochi be if Kostner, Asada, and Kim all go clean

I think the thread itself was a very nice, enthusiastic, joyful speculation of "what if" - made me smile when I first saw it. It's always all posters who make up the thread, not the OP alone. That also means we still have hope to revive the original intention of this thread.

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Therefore I suggest following speculation:

I believe whomever has the highest base value with highest quality of execution will win.

For example, Caro may plan five quads and go clean, which will seal the victory. The end.
BTW, for the same reason, I've always cheered Liza for quads. ...And Mao to clean her 3A (T_T).

kwanatic said:

Nicely said FlattFan.

Yu-Na is an incredible talent and skater. The thing that makes her unbeatable is the fact that she often executes her content and skates to about 90% of her potential the majority of the time and has skated to basically 100% of her potential twice (Olys 2010, Worlds 2013). Mao and Carolina do not do that. Mao seems to top out at about 60-70% of her ability and Carolina at about 70-80% of her ability. Both are capable of much more than they put out...

If Mao skates her content to its max potential, she will win. Simple math tells us that in the fantasy world of everyone being perfect, Mao would always win based on her superior technical capabilities and her ability to max out the levels on everything else she does. She'd still probably come in 3rd in both PCS and GOE but with her +10 boost in TES it wouldn't matter.

If Carolina skates to her max potential, it would come down to hundredths of a point b/w her and Yu-Na...they are that close across the board if both skate to their potential. Assuming Carolina upped her content, she could actually beat Yu-Na in TES (her ability to do a loop gives her more options in the FS). Given that they are so close in PCS, it would be a very tight race b/w the two of them.


In the fantasy world (where everyone is perfect) Mao is the unbeatable one and Yu-Na and Carolina are the ones jockeying neck-and-neck for silver.


However, we live in reality

In reality Mao frequently under-rotates her jumps and her bigger combos are often more miss than hit. This impacts her GOE and PCS negatively and she finds herself chasing the other two.

In reality Carolina opts for easier content and often makes at least one mistake (usually a major one, like a fall) in nearly every program which hurts her TES and prevents her PCS from maxing out (though she still gets very good numbers).

And in reality, Yu-Na is the one who is capable of skating at or close to her max potential every time out and, as a result, she is usually the winner.

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So if we combined the best of Yuna, Caro and Mao would have have the perfect lady skater?

Layfan said:

So if we combined the best of Yuna, Caro and Mao would have have the perfect lady skater?

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OMG! The thought alone just BLEW MY MIND!!

Layfan said:

Everyone's analyses of the base value are very interesting. Still, I can't get past the fact that no lady has come near the kind of points that Yuna has scored when she nails her programs. Maybe she won't of course but even her LP score at worlds last year ... nobody's ever beat that score ... except her. Right? Unless I'm blanking on something.

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That is because, for various reasons, her closest rivals/competitors could not pull off two pristinely clean, back-to-back skates when YuNa also did. It's disappointing for figure skating fans, right? I'm very curious myself as to what would happen.

When you crunch the numbers, though...it's interesting that 11-jump Mao Asada, 10-jump Carolina Kostner, and 9-jump YuNa Kim between the SP+LP are very competitive with each other. If they were to all go clean (no edge calls, underrotation deductions, etc.), it really ought to be given in that order: Asada, Kostner, Kim - because I'm a big proponent of jumps as comprising a large part of the athletic aspect of competitive figure skating. So, I think this exercise does point to as-yet unresolved issues in the CoP when it comes to balancing the scoring to reflect that. 3 great-quality jumps shouldn't match 4 standard-quality jumps. The quality should be a factor only after the numbers and types are comparable.

Well, this is just how my figure-skating value system works. And this is just the bare bones of it: the other skills and basics should matter, too, but the balancing act in the scoring is a tough one.

Cherryy I really enjoyed reading your analysis, too. That is a very clever method.

Layfan said:

So if we combined the best of Yuna, Caro and Mao would have have the perfect lady skater?

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We would need a little Michelle thrown in for sheer emotional projection.

prettykeys said:

We would need a little Michelle thrown in for sheer emotional projection.

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Oh Michelle, is in my secret recipe of the perfect lady skater, no doubt. Yuna too. I'll keep the third to myself to avoid people jumping down my throat.

I suspect Yuna would still win with Mao in second and Kostner third but Other than Yuna I don't see the other girls skating clean. Mao barely won the silver over a mourning ROchette in Vancouver.

Let's look at it this way. Do you believe at this past Worlds, if all had skated clean, Yuna would have lost? I don't, even if they had all been tied after the short program. The glorious music, the speed, and command that Yuna had would not have been matched even if the other two had managed to land the jumps they missed. Caro's program was fantastic, but it did not have the sweeping, epic impact of Yuna's.

Now, the Olympics will be a different story with different programs, so who knows? I just feel in my gut that if Yuna skates a long program like she did at 2013 worlds, the others will need powerful music and better programs. They're certainly capable of it, but base value will mean little if Kim blows the roof off in Sochi.

When you crunch the numbers, though...it's interesting that 11-jump Mao Asada, 10-jump Carolina Kostner, and 9-jump YuNa Kim between the SP+LP are very competitive with each other.

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I'm curious whether any of the ladies would change their jumps in the next season, or at least the jump rotations. Kim was just coming back from a long break, so I can see why she would stick with the safe routine in Worlds 13, but I wonder, this being an Olympic season and reportedly her last, whether she would stick to safe. Everyone would try to up their ante after what she laid down in the Worlds, so she would want to keep up with that.

Conversely, I wonder if Mao would go for more conservative or risk it all by planning an even more difficult 3A combination? Carolina just needs to up her consistency, but then still, she could go either way. I tend to think that Kim is the definitive outlier -- in that she has 80-90% consistency with triples whereas even the very best of the ladies tend not to be able to land triples with over 60% consistency, and that in other words, you are considered dang good if you can land various triples and 3-3 three times out of five correctly.

Hee, combining Yuna/Mao/Carolina to create a perfect skater -- that being would be fearsome indeed, and probably downright inhuman! I think some suggested that Mao gets her wonderfully delicate and intricate footwork and laybacks from her flexibility, but she isn't too good with certain types of jump consistency. Whereas Yuna's not necessarily known for her flexibility (I agree though that she's still better than most), her difficult jumps and combinations are textbook technical pretty much 90% time, which is probably unheard of. I wonder if there's some sort of correlation?

Still, I think Yuna is as good as we'll get for some time, considering everything. She's the only one from CoP who can put on a good "program" that isn't hampered by flaws, and I don't actually feel stressed out watching her. Someone I know who only watches figure skating coverage for Worlds and Olympics said that Yuna Kim is the basically only lady skater right now who doesn't give her a heart attack every time she jumps. I don't think a lot of skating fans who like to scrutinize her every move appreciate this quality of hers, but combining that with her technical content, it's quite unreal.

Interesting discussion. I had been assuming that 2014 was Yuna's to win since she has been blowing the other ladies out of the water.

I think Olympic Gold Medals come down to a combination of skating clean at the moment (AND rising above the pressure of that moment) and being the favored one. It seems that the judges often pick a skater to give bonus points and recently it feels like Yuna is getting those points (on top of the massive amount of points she EARNS.) But being the favored one can change season by season. And if all 3 ladies manage to be clean, the favored one gets the gold.

prettykeys said:

So, I think this exercise does point to as-yet unresolved issues in the CoP when it comes to balancing the scoring to reflect that. 3 great-quality jumps shouldn't match 4 standard-quality jumps. The quality should be a factor only after the numbers and types are comparable.

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I think they have it balanced pretty well. Three outstanding triple jumps with +2 GOE is exactly equal to the same three triple jumps plus an extra triple Salchow, all of average quality (0 GOE).

The effect on PCSs probably favors the three outstanding jumps. More room for choreography, plus the wow factor of those +2 jumps.

Selene said:

Mao Asada is a big judges' pet and one of the most held up skaters currently competing.

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held up in what PCS? well through Mao had the highest BV of all the ladies at Worlds, she still only received the Third highest presentation score, talk about being held down!

if you look at Mao's goe she barely got anything, not even in the non-jump elements at WC, again what does this show you
it was thanks to her having the highest BV of the whole competition that was able to medal. even through she had the highest technical score (BV) of the whole competition she still didn't receive anywhere near the highest PCS score.

so if the judges wanted to inflante Mao's score why didn't they give her any goe, why the low PCS afterall we are talking about one of the most accomplished skaters in World, her record is absolutely incredible. so what you are claiming and what really happened seems quite contractible.

For all the ones that still deny that the goe and presentation score is used as a tool to inflante and manipulate the overall score, let me remind you of the Ukrainian judge who just recently got suspended for using goe to manipulate the scores in a senior pair competition "The Alleged Offender is an ISU Judge for single and pair skating from Ukraine (see ISU Communication no. 1756). At the Cup of Nice 2012 she served, among others, on the Panel of Judges for the Senior Pairs Event and the Junior Ladies Event. In his e-mail of October 30, 2012 the Event Referee of the Senior Pairs Event informed the Complainants that Ms...., an ISU Judge who served on the same Senior Pairs Judges Panel had come to him before the Short Program and told him that she had been approached by the Alleged Offender who encouraged her to give higher Grade of Execution Marks to the couple from Ukraine. Ms. ... handed over to the referee a report of an incident which took place on October 25, 2012, at the café of the ice rink in Nice. In this report Ms. ... wrote, that on entering the ice rink café she was invited by Ms. Kruglova to join her at the table. Ms. Kruglova allegedly asked her, if when judging the Senior Pairs Competition she would give the Ukrainian couple a +1 instead of a zero, as they need as many points as possible to qualify"


unfortunately with the anonymous judging this will continue...

I seriously think Gold or Wagner may steal a medal. Americans tend to for whatever rise to the olympic occasion. THey are in a huge country and trained to have confidence. Look at Evan in 2010. I think Davis and Wnite will win and Mao, Carolina one of them will implode. I really think Carolina has been extremely lucky in skating and should be thrilled with her accomlishments. It would be nice to see an American or Russian lady steal a medal.

let`s talk said:

in terms of inflation yuna is chan in a skirt. She just stays on her feet, that's why her wins are usually not questioned. But it doesn't dismiss the whole point of inflation. Moreover, judging by the score she got at worlds, even if asada and kostner would have skated clean, they would have still lost to her, just with twice smaller difference in score. All this kills the competition and sport itself when skaters know in advance that fight and risk is meaningless. That's why any inflation, either on a bigger scale (chan) or a smaller one (yuna) is always evil. :disapp:

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ita.

I have never understood the huge point spread, esp in Vancouver. I have to say at that point I found Joannie sophisticated, elegant, beautiful, as well as a good athlete. To watch her now as a pro, she is stunning. Mao has this ethereal quality, but with all the dings for urs people forget. I think you can put money on a very calm, all business Yuna going clean or close to it and winning. Also Chan, though if he falls twice I think it will really turn off so many new fans (potential fans). I really hope the judging is fair. It seems to me there will be mayhem if a Russian is not on the podium. No one is a lock except YuNa. I said it before Worlds based on her Nationals. And still I get dinged if I notice her faults (in my eyes.) She can't lose unless she falls apart. And when has she ever fallen apart???

skateluvr said:

No one is a lock except YuNa. I said it before Worlds based on her Nationals. And still I get dinged if I notice her faults (in my eyes.) She can't lose unless she falls apart. And when has she ever fallen apart???

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I think we are counting our chickens before they hatch if we think that anything is automatic in figure skating. Here is Kim's record since the Olympics.

2010 Worlds. She finished 7th in the short program behind Mirai, Asada, Lepisto, Kostner, Makarova, and Flatt. In the LP she got 0 points for a 0-Axel.

2011 Worlds. Messed up her triple Lutz in the short program. Lost to Miki Ando in the short and overall.

2012 NRW Trophy. Fell on 3S+2T attempt.

2013 Korean Nationals. Fell on stroking in the short program.

So our feeling that it is impossible for Kim ever to make a mistake is based, really, on two competitions in four years, 2010 Olympics and 2013 Worlds.

Mathman said:

2011 Worlds. Messed up her triple Lutz in the short program. Lost to Miki Ando in the short and overall.

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She did not lose to Miki in the SP. She beat a clean Ando with several mistakes and that was one of the worst judging panel ever.

^ Sorry, I should have said Kim popped her flip in the LP and finished second to Ando in that segment and overall.

FlattFan said:

If all three skated cleanly

TES
Mao > Caro > Yuna

PCS
Caro > Yuna > Mao

Since this is a fantasy scenario, let's suspend our disbelief and go for broke

SP
Mao will go for
3F-2Lo, 3A, 3Lo, level 4 on all spins, level 4 on footwork. She will emerge the winner after the SP. If anyone thinks she can't beat the other two in the SP with her layout, you need to pick up a calculator and go back to first grade.
Caro will go for
3F-3T, 3Lo, 2A, level 4 on 2 spins, level 3 on the layback, level 4 on footwork.
Yuna will go for
3Lz-3T, 3F, 2A, level 4 on 2 spins, level 3 on layback, level 4 on footwork.
Both Caro and Yuna aren't going to get level 4 on layback. I can only suspend my disbelief so much.
Caro will have the highest PCS here, but her BV on jumps is about 1 point lower than Yuna. GOE should match or exceed Yuna. Her 2A has the highest GOE, her step seq has the highest GOE.
I think Yuna will be third after the SP, but maybe only .1 or .2 behind Caro. Both will be about 3-4 points behind Mao.

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Kostner hasn't attempted a 3F/3T in the SP at the last three Worlds, but you think that she'll bring it to the Olympics? Highly unlikely. About as unlikely as Kostner getting a level 4 on a layback. Mao and Yu-na's SP layouts make sense based on what they attempted at Worlds and throughout this quad, but not Kostner's.

Kostner's layout will likely be 3T/3T, 3Lo, 2A. So the gap between Kostner and Kim's jump layouts will be 2 points, not just 1.

Mathman said:

I think we are counting our chickens before they hatch if we think that anything is automatic in figure skating. Here is Kim's record since the Olympics.

2010 Worlds. She finished 7th in the short program behind Mirai, Asada, Lepisto, Kostner, Makarova, and Flatt. In the LP she got 0 points for a 0-Axel.

2011 Worlds. Messed up her triple Lutz in the short program. Lost to Miki Ando in the short and overall.

2012 NRW Trophy. Fell on 3S+2T attempt.

2013 Korean Nationals. Fell on stroking in the short program.

So our feeling that it is impossible for Kim ever to make a mistake is based, really, on two competitions in four years, 2010 Olympics and 2013 Worlds.

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It is not to try nitpick, I know it was because of korean national's ice condition(i don't find proper word)
After a while the program is started, she suddenly fell on unexpected part; not on any elements. She has never do like this stupid mistake in any competitions