Bona Fide Member
Which Russian lady has most difficult programs?
And realistically, given some home turf points, can that skater podium in Sochi? I think there will be a great push to have someone the fans can adore in Russia like they did Irina. I like Liza and Adelina, but no where near as much as many others. One thread is talking like its a lock between YuNa (very likely gold again) and then Mao or Caro. This is the Russian Olympics and politics certainly matter. Even though they likely will win a Pairs silver or gold, a dance bronze and maybe get Evgeni on the bronze (would that be amazing or what) I think they really want to podium at THEE marquee event of the games.
I haven't watched their ladies that much due to dislike of many programs at almost first site, and haven't crunched numbers (or read any russian lady threads). Still how can we count out one of these girls for maybe a bronze on home turf? Who are we betting on, and who do you all see as the best hope going into this season? Russophiles, what's your best guess for these young girls?
Most difficult program (and highest score of Russian ladies in Free Skate) has Liza. Her FS at Nationals and Euro was really excellent.
But Liza was unstable in season, especially in SP.
Ladies are so unpredictable, as we've seen many times.
So no forecast or prediction - all may change in new season.
Only names of possible pretenders who may have chance to Olympics Medal.
1. Liza. Very complicated program with (potentially) very high score. She must overcome her unstability.
2. Adelina. Good presentation, high PCS. She must overcome her jumping problems.
3. Julia Lipnitskaia. At 2011/2012 season she was ultra-stable and had scores of same level as Kostner. She must restore after her injuries and problems of season 2012/2013.
These are three main pretenders.
Some other Russian ladies also may have chance, I believe.
Based on the most recent competitions and how they skated at them Julia was by far the best at jr worlds. Looking good for her getting to Sochi. It's sad how much sotnikova and tuktamisheva bombed both worlds and wtt.
Adelina at Euros beat Julia's total score by almost 30 points, and at WTT by almost 20. How is that "by far the best"?
Originally Posted by gmyers
Adelina and Liza are locks for the team. Julia is good but she is going to lose to Liza on TES and Adelina on PCS. I wish Russia had 3 spots because Julia deserves to go to Worlds/Olys but she is solidly the third best eligible Russian lady and clearly behind the top 2.
Adelina at euros is by far the most respectable she had done as a senior but worlds Adelina and wtt Adelina is nothing to write home about! Same thing for Liza too. Adelina and Liza have huge problems that means Julia could not only be on the team but beat them both on her way to Sochi! Sotnikova with her flip problems and leaving out combos because of her flip problems and Liza with her short programs of disaster over and over makes it a three way race! More than 3 way race actually! Some are bound to bring up Julia going through puberty but continued growth is also affecting sotnikova and Liza too! So because of the disaster skates by Liza and sotnikova at both worlds and wtt and julias great skate at jr worlds I put Julia first! I don't believe Liza is guaranteed to beat Julia on Tes especially if Liza is like 10th or below in a sp which is very possible! And sotnikovas pcs is not going to make up all the points lost when she flutzes, misses her flips, leaves out combos etc!
If Adelina and Liza are locks for the team its very sad because they have been bombing everything since euros and would mean there's really no talent in Russian senior ladies.
Liza has harder programs than Adelina, Eurosport guys were talking about it at Worlds, and actually throughout the season, about how Adelina's step sequence in the FS was fun and energetic but not very difficult. Also 3t-3t and 3f in the SP is not that difficult of a layout, not when Liza, Julia, and Anna all do 3lz-3t and 3f. In the FS, all the girls do 3lz-3t and 2a-3t(-2t), but Adelina and Julia repeat 3f while Liza and Anna repeat 3lz. All except Liza do 2 combos including the 3 jump combo in the 1st half of the program, but Liza does the 2a-3t and 3 jump combo both in the 2nd half. So Liza has the highest BV of all the ladies, but her spins are also not very good and sometimes only level 3.
Execution wise, Anna and Julia have an edge on Liza (at least in SP) and Adelina (due to easier SP layout and frequent difficulties in FS). Adelina has the highest PCS, but the margin is maybe not that much over a good Tuk or Lip, and if Tuk is just ok, then her PCS can get to be pretty low, which means she could be overtaken in PCS by Julia, and realistically even Anna could likely match her PCS if Liza is not having a great skate and gets like 53 for PCS. Leonova could be a factor but her jumps have been MIA the past season and like Adelina, SP layout is not as difficult compared to some of the others. When she skates well, PCS are quite high, and they are still decent for now when she bombs, but idk how long that will last if she continues to bomb. Korobeynikova also has a shot but I think only if she brings back her difficult content from previous seasons...her PCS is lowish already, lower than Liza, around 50 for the FS when her skating is decent or good (Euros, COR), which is what Pogorilaya usually got in juniors, so that's a disadvantage already and then if she does 3t-3t and 3lo in SP and just one 3f and no 3lz or 3-3 in the FS, there won't really be any way for her to make up the points on others unless she's perfect and they all really bomb. If she does 3f-3t in SP and FS again though and puts 3lz in her FS (getting up to 7 triples with 2a-3t combo), and is actually successful with such jumps in competition, I think her PCS can go up and then technically she will be one of the strongest in the field and have a good chance to challenge for the Olympic team, or at least medal at Nationals. I wonder if Korobeynikova will get COR or if the Fed will give it to Gosviani (or even Agafonova or Biryukova) instead, if Polina K gets it, I think that speaks well of the Fed's willingness to back her.
At their best, Adelina and Liza are the best of the Russian ladies at this point, but I'm not sure either has the most long-term potential at this point, and I will even go as far to say that if they continue to be inconsistent during the coming fall and later seasons, I really can see the Fed paying less attention to them and backing someone else who is performing better in competition, and maybe even name such a skater to the Olympic team over one or both of these girls. Right now, Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya have very, very slim chances to make the Olympic team, but that could change come the fall. But I would say in the situation that say Lipnitskaya and Leonova are skating really well this fall and Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva aren't, then I could definitely see the team being Lipnitskaya and Leonova should the trend continue through the Nationals. Cup of China will be interesting because Sotnikova competes against Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya. What happens if she bombs and Polina and Anna both beat her there?
Pogorilaya is Shelepen 2.0, I don't think she'll make a splash in seniors
I believe the three ( Julia, Adelina, Tuk ) + maybe Leonova are the main contenders for the two spots
barring injuries again *knock on wood if they are all healthy Julia would be the main contender the second spot will be between Sotnikova *Fed favorite, Tuk * Miss Samsung or Leonova *former silver world medalist.
How do you define "most difficult"?
Jumps, including 2nd half bonuses? (and including difficulty of combinations, which is not reflected in the actual scoring?) Levels of spins and steps?
Would you also include construction of the program as a whole, in addition to the technical elements, as reflected in the Transitions component and maybe a bit under Skating Skills and Choreography?
And what about the difficulty of the presentation/interpretation challenges posed, which may or may not be reflected in the component scores? (Some judges may just focus on the success of the execution, which would likely be better with "easier" choreography.)
And then, of course, actual results will depend not only on the difficulty but also on the success of the execution.
The biggest issue is that Liza and Adelina skate like seniors. They are fast, and Liza in particular is dramatically improving the presentation of her programs. The other Russians have a more introverted presentation style, have small jumps, and skate noticeably slower. Yes, if Adelina or Liza completely bomb they can be overtaken. But internationally they both have a 10-15 point cushion over the other Russian ladies if everyone skated clean.
Shelepen might have done well in seniors if she skated senior in 11-12 when she was still with Tutberize and landing 3-3s all over the place and improving artistically...last season she wasn't terrible early in the season at those B-events, but between her injury and coaching change to Sokolovskaya and insistence on doing that 3lz-3lo combo she was never going to get full credit for, it all turned out to be a bit of a disaster. But like I said, there were a number of factors contributing to her struggles last season. Tutberize was actually doing a good job with her, I was impressed she kept her 3-3s after undergoing such a growth spurt in such a short amount of time, and the jumps were quite big and she was consistent, even the spins and ignoring the music were getting better. So had Shelepen stayed with Tutberize and not gotten injured, I definitely could have seen her making the Euros and Worlds teams this past season and likely doing better than Gosviani and Leonova did.
Originally Posted by sky_fly20
Also regarding Pogorilaya as Shelepen 2.0, while I admit there are similarities to their skating, bear in mind that Anna managed to do in one international season what Polina couldn't in THREE - medal at Junior Worlds. It's also worth noting that Anna's PB is 5 points higher than Polina's, and she earned that score in her third international competition ever while it took Polina two and a half seasons to achieve her PB score. So Pogorilaya's progression is more impressive, and the PCS are usually not so low as those that Shelepen often received, and like I pointed out earlier, Shelepen does/did have a lot of potential and was starting to come into her own before the coaching change and injury messed everything up.
Shelepen actually had a lot going for her - big jumps and difficult combinations, good flexibility, some of her spins were very strong (most notably the layback/biellman), fair speed and basics, and a beautiful body line with her long-limbed and lean physique. She had all the tools to be better than someone like Liza or Adelina, it was just going to take longer for her to get there and then the coaching change and injury made it look like she was no longer going to ever get there. I honestly think Polina's weaknesses were easier to address than those of Liza (little flexibility especially in the back, short/sturdy build, poor ice coverage) and Adelina (wild jump technique, trouble controlling her power, nervous disposition that seems to work against her in competition), and I feel the same way about Julia, Anna, and Polina K. which is why I think the three of them could have a shot to make the Sochi team and could very well have more success long-term than either Liza or Adelina.
And do you really think Polina Korobeynikova has no chances to make the team? I feel like her technique is a lot better than Adelina and she is more elegant and expressive than Liza...if she can put the hard content back in I think she arguably becomes the best lady in Russia.
I haven't really read that tuktamisheva skates like a senior before! Her pcs is not really good because of her poor ice coverage where she pretty much stays is the middle of the ice the whole time she skates. Lizas biggest asset is/was her ability to do 3/3 and lutz and flip all with very good technique. At worlds and wtt a lot of her best assets were not on display and she had two disasters! Because li did so much better than she did!
Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy
It will very much depend on results of test skate at late August.
Originally Posted by silverlake22
Biryukova is not in Team Russia now, so almost impossible that she will be at test skate.
Polina K., Gosviani and Agafonova are possible pretenders to COR. Gosviani is at main Senior part of Team Russia, Polina K. and Agafonova are in Reserve part, it means than Fed is more interested in Gosviani. But test skate will mean very much.
And there are Gerasimova and Stavtiskaia, who may also pretend to COR.
There are 9 best Ladies in Russia who are eligible for Senior Championships at 2013/2014.
On their results of season 2012/2013 they make 4 groups of two and one "group" of one.
Biryukova to return to "elite" must skate well at Russian Cup Events, qualify to Nationals and skate well at Nationals, I believe. No other chance for her.
I think Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova and Lipnitskaya are the 3 main contenders for Sochi, so I did some maths on the technical values (not taking GOE into account) and this is how the SP, FS and COMBINED (SP & FS) are ranked, 1st being most difficult. Sorry if I've made any mistakes!
1st - Julia = 31.4
2nd - Elizaveta = 31.03
3rd - Adelina = 30.1
1st - Elizaveta = 61.01
2nd - Julia = 57.61
3rd - Adelina = 55.65
COMBINED (SP & FS):
1st - Elizaveta = 92.04
2nd - Julia = 89.01
3rd - Adelina = 85.75
So, in terms of this season's technical content, technically Elizaveta overall has the 'most difficult' programs.
However, Julia's, Elizaveta's and Adelina's technical content is likely to change this season, and moreover the technical score depends on the difficulty of transitions (for GOE, etc) which is hard to work out..
Moreover, there are dark horses for the Russian Olympic spots, so it's difficult to judge how this season is going to pan out for the Russian ladies!
I would propose the groups differently.
Originally Posted by AlexRus
1. Sotnikova Tuktamysheva Lipnitskaia = most likely going to Europeans and 2 of them to Olympics.
2. Pogorilaya Leonova Gosviani = possible spoilers if some of the above are injured/fail
3. Korobeynikova Gerasimova Stavitskaia = not very likely
4. Agafonova Biryukova Makarova = don't have much chance
I agree with what you are saying about Biryukova, but Gosviani proved last season that anything is possible. (who would have thought at the beginning of the last season that Gosviani would be sent to Europeans instead of Leonova, Makarova or Korobeinikova? Gosviani was not part of the Team Russia either. If Biryukova qualifies into nationals (even as a substitute) and then manages to be third eligible from seniors, she may be sent to Europeans.
It does not make real difference. All will be changed in new season, and nobody knows how.
Originally Posted by hanca
About Makarova - she solved to miss 2013/2014 season, so she is not a pretender.
It was not only Gosviani's success.
Originally Posted by hanca
Makarova did not restore. Leonova, Biryukova and all three Polinas (Agafonova, Korobeynikova, Shelepen) degraded. If not so - Gosviani would not have chance to Euro.
Biryukova - yes, if she will be 3rd of age eligible at Nats, she most probably will have Euro. But it is almost impossible.