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Thread: Which Russian lady has most difficult programs?

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanca View Post
    I would propose the groups differently.
    1. Sotnikova Tuktamysheva Lipnitskaia = most likely going to Europeans and 2 of them to Olympics.
    2. Pogorilaya Leonova Gosviani = possible spoilers if some of the above are injured/fail
    3. Korobeynikova Gerasimova Stavitskaia = not very likely
    4. Agafonova Biryukova Makarova = don't have much chance
    I don't think that many ladies actually have a shot, and Korobeynikova has better odds than Gosviani at this point I think. Realistically, only 7 girls have any chance of making Olympic team, and probably in this order:

    Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova
    Lipnitskaya

    Pogorilaya, Leonova
    Korobeynikova

    Gosviani

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    I don't think that many ladies actually have a shot, and Korobeynikova has better odds than Gosviani at this point I think. Realistically, only 7 girls have any chance of making Olympic team, and probably in this order:

    Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova
    Lipnitskaya

    Pogorilaya, Leonova
    Korobeynikova

    Gosviani
    I pretty much agree with this, although I'd have Leonova tied with Lipnitskaya simply based on the potential that Alena could find her form from two seasons ago. I feel like fans underrate Alena because they don't like her style, but she is capable of very high scores if she can skate clean. The team will come from two of those four skaters I believe, and I think the top two will have to open the door with mediocre seasons for that to happen.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I pretty much agree with this, although I'd have Leonova tied with Lipnitskaya simply based on the potential that Alena could find her form from two seasons ago. I feel like fans underrate Alena because they don't like her style, but she is capable of very high scores if she can skate clean. The team will come from two of those four skaters I believe, and I think the top two will have to open the door with mediocre seasons for that to happen.
    Yeah, you are probably right. Unless Leonova continues to underperform on the GP and her marks start getting lower, showing the judges have more or less "dumped" her if her PCS marks are suddenly considerably lower compared to before, in which case the Russian Fed will probably catch on and not inflate her PCS so high at Nationals unless she delivers, and even then, may be skeptical. However I think the fact that Leonova and Pogorilaya both got 2 GPs even though they were each only guaranteed 1 means the RU fed probably politiked for them to each get that 2nd spot, meaning they are likely backing them for now which probably means they are being considered for Olympic spots. Pogorilaya is probably being promoted more for 2018 where the Fed has released Shelepen, Makarova may be retiring, Leonova may retire after 2014, Korobeynikova and Biryukova digressed last season, and Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya were up and down last season which opens up the field a bit for someone like Pogorilaya to gain recognition and experience in the next season or two and make a name for herself should she continue to perform well in competition. Leonova I think they want to keep on the backburner for this season in case she turns things around and/or one or more of Tuk/Sot/Lip struggle this season and a solid anchor for the team is needed. If the Fed was really done with her, I bet they would have politiked for Korobeynikova to get a 2nd event or Gosviani to get a 1st, but they did not so I have to think this was tactual.

  4. #19
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    can we stop including Pogorilaya ? she will get a Shelepen pcs range in seniors
    unless the others implode realistically only 3 or maybe 4 are in a running for those 2 spots.

    Korobeynikova grew even taller and that will be even harder for her jumps now.
    Gosvianai that was a one time fluke, she is a disaster i have followed her competitive national records since 2010

  5. #20
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    seeing Tuks recent photos in VK, I will upgrade Tuk's chances as she looks like she is losing weight for the Olympics Season
    Mishin must be drilling her eating habits

    imo the one medal per day Mishin should consider as it will make Tuk's body lean in less than 3 months before the start of the season
    it will also make her jumps bigger like in 2011.

  6. #21
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    Yeah, we've all seen what one meal a day has done for Leonova's consistency. Sorry, this is NOT the right way for a teen to get healthy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    seeing Tuks recent photos in VK, I will upgrade Tuk's chances as she looks like she is losing weight for the Olympics Season
    Mishin must be drilling her eating habits

    imo the one medal per day Mishin should consider as it will make Tuk's body lean in less than 3 months before the start of the season
    it will also make her jumps bigger like in 2011.
    I'm sure everyone would like a medal per day - though I suppose the charm will start to pall after a while...

    As for one meal per day - yes, I'm sure weakness, dizzyness and assorted other sideaffects would be nothing but highly beneficial.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    can we stop including Pogorilaya ? she will get a Shelepen pcs range in seniors
    unless the others implode realistically only 3 or maybe 4 are in a running for those 2 spots.
    Pogorilaya on results of 2012/2013 season was 4th of age eligible for season 2013/2014 Ladies, after Adelina, Liza and Julia.
    Nobody knows how will they (and others) progress or regress.
    We will see.

    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Korobeynikova grew even taller and that will be even harder for her jumps now.
    Korobeynikova had almost clean SP (step out on 3Lo) at SrNats, was 4th in SP (after Liza, Adelina, Elena Radionova, before Pogorilaya - by higher PCS, Pogorilaya's TES was 3 points higher), and after that corrupted FS.
    Good SP, if remember that she at 2011/12 always had bad SP.

    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Gosvianai that was a one time fluke, she is a disaster i have followed her competitive national records since 2010
    Problem of Gosviani is jumping instability.
    Her only skating of season without serious mistakes was SrNats, when she made all elements on positive GOE (except 3 jumps in FS on slightly negative GOE). And was 6th, with score lower than 5th Pogorilaya on 6 points and higher than 7th Leonova on 1 point.
    All competitions before and after SrNats she had serious mistakes on jumps (3 corrrupted jumping elements at SP+FS at Euro, for example).
    If she will earn jumping stability, she has chance to be in "Russian elite". If not - not.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    can we stop including Pogorilaya ? she will get a Shelepen pcs range in seniors
    unless the others implode realistically only 3 or maybe 4 are in a running for those 2 spots.

    Korobeynikova grew even taller and that will be even harder for her jumps now.
    Gosvianai that was a one time fluke, she is a disaster i have followed her competitive national records since 2010
    We never got to see what kind of scores a healthy Shelepen would have got in seniors. She did a couple of B events way early last season then 1 GP where she was injured and bombed and that's it - we don't really know if she could have scored well if she was skating well and actually skated as a senior for more than 1/3 of one season...

    Anyways, Pogorilaya has better basics than Shelepen and skates with a lot of speed. The Eurosport guys at JW said her skating was very powerful, as well, so I'm guessing that's why her PCS marks have been on the higher end for juniors this past season despite having no experience and a somewhat gangly appearance. Her PCS was 4th highest at JW, only 2-3 PCS points below Lipnitskaya in FS, and Lipnitskaya only beat her by 5 points there even though Pogorilaya had a much messier FS (and her SP mistakes with the level 1 spin and step-sequence stumbles were almost as costly as Julia's botched combo). Also, at JGPF, her PCS were right around the other girls there (and considerably higher than Keiser, actually), she was only 3 points off the PCS of Radionova and Miller in the FS and less than 2 behind Wang.

    Pogorilaya got PCS of around 50 in the FS at JGPF and JW, quite a bit better than Shelepen at 14 actually who was getting more like 43-44 at those events. Polina only finally got to the PCS range Anna already reached in one international season in her 3rd international season, 2011-2012, where everyone thought she was basically a lock for the Europeans team and could even have a chance to medal there. She didn't make it to Euros because she had a meltdown in the SP at Nats, but she was skating very well that season otherwise and won 2 JGPs and 2nd at the JGPF.

    So clearly, Pogorilaya is better from a PCS standpoint than Shelepen anyways, and Shelepen may have done well in seniors if she was healthy and stayed with Tutberize and actually competed for a whole season. The other thing is, none of the other girls in Russia right now have great PCS anyways. Adelina and Alena if she doesn't meltdown can get like 60+ PCS sure, but Pogorilaya is already in the range of Korobeynikova and Gosviani anyways, and not that far behind Lipnitskaya and Tuktamysheva, especially when Tuk does not skate her best. So if Anna continues to jump the way she did last season, I do think she could be in the mix to play spoiler for a spot on the Olympic team, I don't think it's very likely, but it could happen, and in terms of making it to Euros (where there are 3 spots) or Worlds (where one of the girls on the Olympic team might not chose to compete), the odds increase more. If Pogorilaya does not jump well, then I agree, her PCS won't be very strong and that combined with mistakes will drop her down the standings, but if she delivers the technical content, if this past season is any indication, her PCS will be fine enough to keep her in the hunt given her strong TES.

    And Korobeynikova is obviously dangerous considering she was 2nd in the FS at Euros in 2012.

  10. #25
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    Yeah, we've all seen what one meal a day has done for Leonova's consistency. Sorry, this is NOT the right way for a teen to get healthy.
    Leonova wasnt really much of a jumper nor with a good technique did she ?
    eating 1 meal per day will weight in more benefits for Tuk than disadvantages, Tuk will lose alot of weight in 3 months time
    and alot of the top skaters are leaner Yuna, Mao, Carolina, Ashley even Gracie lost weight !

    she needs to keep her weight in control, I really hope Mishin is now monitoring Tuk's diet
    she doesnt have the genetic body type seeing her mother's pics that is why she needs to work harder

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Leonova wasnt really much of a jumper nor with a good technique did she ?
    eating 1 meal per day will weight in more benefits for Tuk than disadvantages, Tuk will lose alot of weight in 3 months time
    and alot of the top skaters are leaner Yuna, Mao, Carolina, Ashley even Gracie lost weight !

    she needs to keep her weight in control, I really hope Mishin is now monitoring Tuk's diet
    she doesnt have the genetic body type seeing her mother's pics that is why she needs to work harder
    Oh, jeez. At this point, I don't even know if you're trolling or not, and I'm not sure I can bring myself to care.

    As someone currently in the final stages of a weight-loss plan ( ), I can tell you from personal experience that not eating enough causes the body to retain its fat deposits out of necessity. Now, my situation isn't nearly the same as Liza's, but a human athlete can and will lose weight -- the HEALTHY way -- by eating well and burning calories in training. I'd also wager that Liza's percentage muscle mass is quite high, which should not make the process as arduous for her as it is for your average sedentary person. Self-starvation will make you skinny, not lean; scrawny, not fit. Liza need not be so hungry that she can barely move, let alone land triple jumps.

    How do you know that Gracie lost weight? As far as I was aware, her weight hasn't been publicized on any reputable website; you're inventing facts to bolster your sinking position. You have to consider that Yuna, Mao, and Carolina are tall and lean by nature, whereas skaters like Gracie and Ashley are more visibly muscular -- but there is more than one body type that works for a figure skater (Yuna vs. Ashley, Gracie vs. Zijun, Tara vs. Alena, etc).

  12. #27
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    Gracie did look a bit slimmer then in the 2011-12 season i think.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Gracie did look a bit slimmer then in the 2011-12 season i think.
    Really? I had the opposite perception -- that her legs were more muscular this season than before.

    Compare this picture (2012 JWC): http://rinksidecafe.wordpress.com/20...h-gracie-gold/

    With this picture (2013 Nationals): http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mor...re-skating.ap/

    It's my understanding that muscle weighs considerably more than adipose tissue. But she may have lost weight after all -- who knows? She's incredibly strong and healthy-looking, so it shouldn't be much of a concern.

  14. #29
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    Might be why she seemed slimmer last season she added muscle. But yes she does look healthy and when she moves you cans see the power she generates.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Gracie did look a bit slimmer then in the 2011-12 season i think.
    In the beginning of the season she looked noticeably thinner, and so did her sister Carly too, but actually Gracie seemed to be skating WORSE because of it. Then it seemed like by Nationals she had put the weight she lost back on in muscle and was skating better because of it. Gracie also may have grown an inch or two taller since the 11-12 season so that may have been why she looked thinner at the beginning of the season. Weight loss will not always help in skating. Remember that season Miki got so thin and all her jumps were UR? Or what about Mao a couple seasons back when she looked frail and was not skating very strongly at all? Alena has been a mess since she started the eating one meal per day nonsense, and Gedevanishvilli reportedly does the same thing and was looking scary thin at Worlds, reportedly falling on everything in practice, and guess what - she didn't even qualify for the FS! So Liza better not go on some crazy diet because it could do more harm than good. If she or Mishin wants her to lose weight I'm sure she can find a nutritionist who will give her a plan to do it the right way. But really at 16 her body is still adjusting into it's adult state so really she doesn't need to be losing weight anyways, she's not overweight and I think nerves are messing up her jump consistency more than anything else honestly..

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