Adelina is an IF skater
she can aim high but her nerves and technique just aren't there
she can NEVER skate a clean FS, she can be 3rd in SP at Olympics and bomb the FS ( a lock to bomb )
Originally Posted by sky_fly20
you know the Sotnikova FS right ?
Originally Posted by LRK
bomb would mean for her no combo for her flutz, singles a flip or falls and another no combo for her flip
minimum of 3 erros for her freeskste meltdown if she makes it in Olympics Team,
Most skaters regularly make 3+ errors in the LP if you count URs, DGs, pops, 2-foots, and falls as errors. As far as technique, Adelina's needs to improve but skaters do improve their technique. Ashley has far fewer 2 foot landings now, Yuna has improved her flip, Carolina has improved her lutz, and all these skaters improved at an age older than Adelina is now. To say her technique is set in stone for eternity is incorrect. The important thing is that she jumps big so that means she has to make minor adjustments, as opposed to skaters who jump small like Caroline Zhang who had to complete rework her jumps after puberty.
Originally Posted by sky_fly20
I got your program components right here.
If the USFSA has any sense, and Czisny skates at least to her (flawed) average at nationals, then she will make the US Olympic team, and at least make the top 12 at the Olympics. I think Reginald overestimates the potential of the Russian women (hangover of teenage phenom-excitement), Osmond, and Li.
My other prediction is that Murakami deservedly will make the podium. Odds, either Kostner or Asada will fall apart. Someone's going to "surprise" us, and I think it'll be Murakami.
Judges really love korpi! Just like if she had been at 2013 euros it likely wouldn't have been 2 Russian ladies on the podium in Sochi korpi could mean no Russian lady in the top 10- if the team is tuktamisheva and sotnikova and they both skate as poorly as they did in London. The third American lady as well! The issue really is can Russia get a skater that can perform well in Sochi? Top 12 could be very hard to make for Liza or sotnikova. I hope they can find their talent again if they're the team. Julia seems to be the best. With Liza and Adelina having been frightened to death of worlds competiton their first time there and that causing massive bombing by both could they be better in Sochi? I just really wanted to bring up korpi mainly!
Surprisingly I think the top 3 are not as secure as people think. Ice is slippery afterall and anything can happen.
Zijun, Gold, Liza, Murakami can all prove to be big surprises. Although I would love a bit unpredictability which would make the sport exciting.
Mirai in 4th? lol... one can dream.
Ice was very very slippery in London with kostner falling over the place in the Sp and LP and what happened? Silver medal!! So the whole idea of ice being slippery was tested and the result was no change!
Originally Posted by os168
I think the top 3 are fairly secure. Kim is a lock for a medal since she is too consistent, and thus she cant possibly make enough mistakes to lose to any of this 4-12 pack of girls, even if they skate their best. Kostner or Asada "could" make enough mistakes for an inspired 4-12 girl, but as others have noted they tend to be protected even when they make alot of mistakes, along with being generally superior in many ways to start with.
I think if you are talking about them all skating cleanly that Kanako would be below Adelina for sure, especialy in Russia. So no higher than 8th, but she could even be as low as 9th or 10th below Kaetlyn and/or 2nd Russia lady in a hypothetical all skate cleanly (which wont happen of course). Meanwhile I think if all skated cleanly in Russia Sotnikova would place above Suzuki, and quite possibly Gold and/or Wagner, and be 4th or 5th. Wagner with a solid 3-3 in both programs and skating cleanly would easily beat even a clean Sotnikova or Gold, but if she doent have that by next year she will be more vurnerable to those others, and have a harder time trying to challenge the top 3 for a medal at all (even if they make mistakes). That is key beyond words for her to have acquired in the off season.
Originally Posted by ForeverFish
Of course who is more likely to skate cleanly or make fewer errors is another story altogether. I think Kanako is more likely to skate cleaner than most, with only UR issues.
I think Wagner will not have a PCS edge next year over Gracie and Adelina. Both of the women are young and are continuing to improve their speed and presentation, while Wagner has most likely peaked already. Wagner is a bit robotic and certainly if Adelina and Gracie have good programs and skate well next season they should get marks close to Wagner. I think Wagner's edge is that she can deliver a clean-ish six triple program more regularly than the other two.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
If Gracie skates clean in both the SP and the LP she has every chance of beating Ashley next season. Even at the WTT when Ashley skated a clean LP she barely beat Gracie who would have probably beat her in the LP and overall if she hadn't doubled that last jump. Add a couple points to her PCS if she continues to improve and Ashley has no room for error.
Contrary to popular belief, I don't think that the Olympics being held in Russia will have a significant impact on the Russian girls' placements, ESPECIALLY after what happened with Patrick Chan at 2013 Worlds. The ISU knows that another SLC-esque scandal -- the Olympics is, undoubtedly, the highest-profile event in the sport -- will be the final nail in the figure skating coffin. Case in point: Vancouver 2010. Both Mao and Yuna finished ahead of Joannie despite Joannie skating solidly on home ice with the crowd's unequivocal support.
Originally Posted by pangtongfan
I also think it's unlikely that Sotnikova can edge Suzuki, Gold, or Wagner, unless she's PERFECTLY clean while all of those three make major errors. However, I could see a case being made for a clean Sotnikova surpassing a flawed Kanako. The key phrase in all of these scenarios is "clean Sotnikova."
I think a lot of people have Sotnikova way too high in their predictions to be honest. She is really talented but the issue is she's highly unlikely to skate clean, and even if she were to skate clean, her jump difficulty is not as high as some of the other girls and her GOE won't be that good either because even though her jumps are big, on top of the flutzing her landings are usually wild and unstable which the size of her jumps likely contributes to. Her spins too, although difficult with good flexibility, are often a bit wild and swingy. Idk I just think if everyone were to skate clean, Adelina would finish behind Ashley, Akiko, Gracie, and Kanako definitely and maybe Zijun and Kaetlyn, the 3rd American lady, and her other Russian teammate, too. URs and GOE seem to cost Adelina a lot, at Worlds she skated pretty cleanly and quite well for her standards but the URs and -GOE hurt her scores and she only got 175 points. If she can learn to control her jump landings better, than maybe she can challenge for 3rd-5th place at the Olympics, but that's a big ask for a short amount of time, so I tend to think she'll settle for a place in the lower half of the top 10, provided she even makes the team.
Here's my prediction(based on skaters' consistency, how likely they're going to execute all of their planned elements, PCS they're recieving right now, etc)
To me, two reasons I find it difficult to make predictions for top 4~10 is because 1.While Akiko has highest PB score, she's been quite inconsistent this season 2.We don't know which ladies Russia would send to Sochi. However, I think Gracie, Akiko and Ashley can definitely aim for bronze, while I don't think others would be able to do so.