The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics.... | Golden Skate

The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
So playing off another post from the highly-conflicted thread on the top three:

Yup. The following skaters
Kanako Murakami
Ashley Wagner
Akiko Suzuki
Gracie Gold
Adelina Sotnikova
Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (or whoever the other Russian is)
Kaetlyn Osmond
Zijun Li

could finish in any order at the Olympics.

Extreme parity.

I'd add Maé Bérénice Méité. to the list as well since she finished in 11th.


What order do you think the rest of them could finish at the Olympics? Do you think any of them could surprise and break to the podium? Do you think there is someone not on this list (either not at Worlds or didn't make the top 10) could come and ruin the party for this group of skaters and break into the top 10/top 12?
 

b-man

Final Flight
Joined
Jun 25, 2010
Mao, with a bad jumping day and a strict controller could fall to 4th or 5th, leaving room for Wagner, Suzuki, or Gold? for a bronze. Julia L. could certainly break the top 10, as could the 3rd US skater.
 

Moment

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 18, 2013
It's Maé Bérénice Méité.

I think Wagner is likely to place between 4th to 6th. The rest, I don't know.
 

backhand45

Rinkside
Joined
Jun 13, 2011
It really surprises me that so many people have basically written off Adelina Sotnikova...I'd definitely have her 4th, or even Bronze, assuming all the top skaters perform well.
 

venlac

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
I think one of russian babies wil be able to fight for᤾3rd place. Maybe sotnikova?
 

Moment

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 18, 2013
Adelina has good potential but I'm not sure if she'll skate close to her best as such a big event. If she does, yeah she's a medal contender.
 

minze

Medalist
Joined
Dec 22, 2012
Mao, with a bad jumping day and a strict controller could fall to 4th or 5th, leaving room for Wagner, Suzuki, or Gold? for a bronze. Julia L. could certainly break the top 10, as could the 3rd US skater.

Not likely. And this why. All she needs is a performance like she had at 2013 world for bronze. And I think she might be able to do slightly better than that. Of course anything can happen and a pefformance like she had at the WTT will drop her out of the podium, but even with her technical inestability last season she proved that she can keep it together for a podium finish
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Suggest that you add "ladies" to the title of this thread -- if the intention is to discuss only the one discipline.
[I "get" that it is an offshoot of the Kim/Asada/Kostner thread, but at least theoretically the time might come when that one quiets down (??? :rofl:) while this one remains active ....]

ETA:
And for sticklers about spelling, Osmond's first name is Kaetlyn. The quoted list in the OP has an I instead of the E.​

Sorry, don't mean to be such a Debbie Downer. I'll shut up now. ;)
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Suggest that you add "ladies" to the title of this thread -- if the intention is to discuss only the one discipline.
[I "get" that it is an offshoot of the Kim/Asada/Kostner thread, but at least theoretically the time might come when that one quiets down (??? :rofl:) while this one remains active ....]

ETA:
And for sticklers about spelling, Osmond's first name is Kaetlyn. The quoted list in the OP has an I instead of the E.​

Sorry, don't mean to be such a Debbie Downer. I'll shut up now. ;)

Good feedback. Makes sense, golden!

To be honest I didn't copy edit the OP when I quoted it here...so I can edit it for the correct spellings.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I would rank the bronze medal potential (assuming Mao or Caro bombs) as such:
1) Gracie
2) Ashley
3) Adelina
4) Akiko
5) Kaetlyn

I think the rest would have a hard time medaling (including Kanako, despite her high finish this year). If Miki came back I'd put her ahead of everyone except Gracie.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
It really surprises me that so many people have basically written off Adelina Sotnikova...I'd definitely have her 4th, or even Bronze, assuming all the top skaters perform well.

LOL who out of Kim, Kostner, or Asada would Sotnikova ever beat if all the top skaters perform well as you put it. There are some who think if everyone performed well that Kim would only finish 3rd.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I would rank the bronze medal potential (assuming Mao or Caro bombs) as such:
1) Gracie
2) Ashley
3) Adelina
4) Akiko
5) Kaetlyn

I think the rest would have a hard time medaling (including Kanako, despite her high finish this year). If Miki came back I'd put her ahead of everyone except Gracie.

I mostly agree although might switch Adelina and Akiko. Well that and I totally disagree about Ando, she is no factor at this point.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I would rank the bronze medal potential (assuming Mao or Caro bombs) as such:
1) Gracie
2) Ashley
3) Adelina
4) Akiko
5) Kaetlyn

I think the rest would have a hard time medaling (including Kanako, despite her high finish this year). If Miki came back I'd put her ahead of everyone except Gracie.

I'd have Ashley ahead of Gracie, especially if she gets a solid 3-3. Other than that, I mostly agree -- Kanako underrotates too often to have a real shot at a medal this time around, although I can see her placing in the top 5-6. IF Miki comes back (highly doubt that the JSF will want to send her ahead of Asada, Suzuki, or Murakami), she might pose a threat to Adelina or Kaetlyn, but none of the others.

In overall standings, assuming that the Big 3 are clean or close-to:

4. Ashley
5. Gracie
6. Akiko
7. Kanako
8. Adelina
9. Kaetlyn
10. Second Russian lady (likely Tuktamysheva)
11. Third American lady (likely Gao/Zawadzki)
12. Meite
 

FSGMT

Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 10, 2012
No-one is talking about Marchei? She was 8th in the World in 2012, and she has placed ahead of Meite in two of the three events where they met this season (SA and Euros), she could really break the top12 if she skates well... Another skaters who could be in the top10 fight is Gedevanishvili, remember that she's been twice 10th at Worlds and 3rd at Euros, this past season was bad for her but she could recover, in practice at euros she was still attempting 3Lz+3T... And then don't forget Viktoria Helgesson: if she somehow lands a 3F and rotates her loops with her level 4 steps and her PCS she could beat Meite, Marchei, Gedevanishvili and maybe someone like a bombing Zawadzki or Liza with a 2-falls SP. My prediction for places between 4 and 12 (assuming that Yu-Na, Mao and Caro win a medal):
4) Gold
5) Wagner
6) 1st Russian lady with home crowd advantage (Liza/Adelina)
7) Akiko
8) Kanako (a couple of UR jumps and the "e" in the lutz)
9) 2nd Russian lady
10) 3rd American lady (probably Zawadzki with a couple of falls and a couple of +3 jumps)
11) Kaetlyn
12) Marchei (my hope :biggrin: )
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Adelina is an IF skater
she can aim high but her nerves and technique just aren't there

she can NEVER skate a clean FS, she can be 3rd in SP at Olympics and bomb the FS ( a lock to bomb )
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Adelina is an IF skater
she can aim high but her nerves and technique just aren't there

she can NEVER skate a clean FS, she can be 3rd in SP at Olympics and bomb the FS ( a lock to bomb )

Define "bomb".
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
Define "bomb".

you know the Sotnikova FS right ?

bomb would mean for her no combo for her flutz, singles a flip or falls and another no combo for her flip
minimum of 3 erros for her freeskste meltdown if she makes it in Olympics Team,
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
bomb would mean for her no combo for her flutz, singles a flip or falls and another no combo for her flip
minimum of 3 erros for her freeskste meltdown if she makes it in Olympics Team,

Most skaters regularly make 3+ errors in the LP if you count URs, DGs, pops, 2-foots, and falls as errors. As far as technique, Adelina's needs to improve but skaters do improve their technique. Ashley has far fewer 2 foot landings now, Yuna has improved her flip, Carolina has improved her lutz, and all these skaters improved at an age older than Adelina is now. To say her technique is set in stone for eternity is incorrect. The important thing is that she jumps big so that means she has to make minor adjustments, as opposed to skaters who jump small like Caroline Zhang who had to complete rework her jumps after puberty.
 

Pepe Nero

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 11, 2011
If the USFSA has any sense, and Czisny skates at least to her (flawed) average at nationals, then she will make the US Olympic team, and at least make the top 12 at the Olympics. I think Reginald overestimates the potential of the Russian women (hangover of teenage phenom-excitement), Osmond, and Li.

My other prediction is that Murakami deservedly will make the podium. Odds, either Kostner or Asada will fall apart. Someone's going to "surprise" us, and I think it'll be Murakami.
 
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