The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

pangtongfan · Jun 23, 2013

ForeverFish said:
I agree with pangtongfan here. Going into Vancouver, it seemed like Joannie had a shot at the silver medal due to Mao's incredibly risky program layout that involved three triple axels across both segments of the competition. That season, Mao had also had a mediocre GP that involved one bronze medal and one fifth-place finish, while Joannie had medalled at both of her GP events AND 2009 Worlds. They were all trying to best Yuna, of course, who won her gold medal with leagues to spare -- the gap between Yuna and every other competitor, even Mao, was already evident. However, the point here is that Mao delivered despite the odds not entirely being in her favor; Joannie wasn't gifted the silver medal by the judges simply because she's Canadian.

I would still have a hard time picturing any Russian lady on the podium, but you're right about the 7th to 5th place finish or something similar. In fact, I think that if the wrong person won ANY color medal, there would be an uproar. For what it's worth, I'm predicting right now that all of the Big 3 will have to make at least three major mistakes across the competition to drop off of the podium.

Yeah I agree. I dont see the judges gifting someone a medal due to home ice. A higher placing amongst skaters who arent that far in ability yes, but not an actual medal. For a Russian lady to win a medal in Sochi, even the bronze, they will have to legitimately outskate either Asada or Kostner.

ForeverFish · Jun 23, 2013

Mathman said:
Here is why Zijun Li is going to make the podium.

At worlds she got fourth in the LP. In the SP she made one mistake which cost her 5.9 points. Giving her that one back, instead of finishing 12th in te SP, here she goes up the ladder.

On TES, she leaps ahead of Meite, zooms past Helgasson, surpasses Gold, overtakes Sotnikova, bests Sukuki, edges Asada, Wagner, Osmond... She's in third 0.13 points behind Kim and 0.21 points behind the leader, Murakami.

On the PCSs side, without the disruptive fall her scores rise from mid-sixes to mid-sevens (as she attained in the LP). This gives her aa boost of 4 points in PCS. She beats Meite, Helgasson, Gold, Sotnikova, Suzuki, Osmond, Murakami... she's fourth in PCS behind only Asada, Wagner, and Kim.

She matched that with a fourth place (in real life) finish in the LP, with TES second behind Kim, beating Kostner and Asada in TES.

All she needs is a rule change to give a bonus for "totally delightful" and she's in like Flynn. :yes:

I respect your opinion as always, Mathman, but I disagree here -- not because Zijun is incapable of making the podium, but because the same could be said for other ladies: Sotnikova and Gold in particular.

In the SP, Sotnikova lost points on a UR'ed 3-3 and a strange spin. What if she'd been clean? Well, she delivered a clean performance at Euros and scored 67+, which would have put her ahead of everyone except Kim. In the FS, she lost out on TES; if she'd not flubbed those jumps, we can again assume her Euros score, adding two or three points to the technical component. So in PCS, she overtakes everyone but the Big 3.

In the SP, Gold was shaky throughout. She UR'ed her 3-3 and missed a spin. Her scoring potential if clean is well over 60, perhaps verging on Sotnikova territory, with TES in the mid 30's. She would have overtaken Wagner, Asada, Suzuki, and probably Osmond. That puts her in 4th. In the FS, her potential score is HUGE -- seven triples were enough of a cushion that, even with 3 elements receiving -GOE, she bested everyone but Kim, Asada, and Li in TES. Clean, the quality of her technical elements puts her ahead of everyone but Kim, and that's not counting the PCS boost that comes with an error-free skate.

OS · Jun 23, 2013

silverlake22 said:
For some odd reason I think at least one of Liza or Adelina will not make the Olympic team...they are the frontrunners going into this whole thing and that's a ton of pressure to bear, and at 16/17, one can't be certain post-puberty body changes aren't entirely behind them either, and further, we've seen both of them crumble under pressure/nerves before. I think Julia will be on the team and the second spot will go to ONE of Adelina or Liza, or even someone like Leonova, Korobeynikova, or Pogorilaya. I know a lot of people think the last 3 girls I mentioned totally suck right now, but they have the advantage of flying under the radar a bit which could play to their advantage - no one expects any of them to make the team, all the attention will be on Adelina and Liza, so in the case that the pressure gets to one or both of them, I bet one of these other girls will swoop right in and take advantage of the situation and earn a spot on the team (or at least deserve to - idk at this point if the Fed were to name Tuk and/or Sot to the Olympic team anyway even if someone like Korobeynikova or Pogorilaya beat them at Nationals...)

I agree Julia would be a darkhorse and think she will be a big threat to Liza and Adelina. What about Radionova? Would she age qualify for Sochi? Another super talent from Russia. Julia has much competitive fire, and if she got over her growth spurt with the right program that allows her to express her musicality and pace herself, I would not be surprised if she makes the top 8 in the finals if she makes the Olympic team.

ForeverFish · Jun 23, 2013

os168 said:
I agree Julia would be a darkhorse and think she will be a big threat to Liza and Adelina. What about Radinova? Would she age qualify for Sochi? Another super talent from Russia. Julia has much competitive fire, and if she got over her growth spurt with the right program that allows her to express her musicality and pace herself, I would not be surprised if she makes the top 8 in the finals if she makes the Olympic team.

No -- Radionova won't be age-eligible for Sochi, Worlds, or EC, as her 15th birthday is 6 months after the cutoff date of July 1, 1998.

gmyers · Jun 23, 2013

I think it's very possible that even if sotnikova and Adelina are beaten at nationals and don't qualify for euros they will be sent to euros anyway and if they recover and beat the person who Beat them at nationals at euros they will be sent to the Olympics. I think two euros spots are reserved for sotnikova and tuktamisheva but not Olympic spots. Hopefully that's not the case! Like if Liza places poorly at nationals because of a bad sp or sotnikova because of a bad lp they will find some way to get them to euros or Olympics. I know a lot of people say Julia doesn't even have a shot which is amazing but if the two worlds 2013 bombers bomb in 2014 why such goodwill for them?

Jammers · Jun 23, 2013

Mathman said:
Here is why Zijun Li is going to make the podium.

At worlds she got fourth in the LP. In the SP she made one mistake which cost her 5.9 points. Giving her that one back, instead of finishing 12th in te SP, here she goes up the ladder.

On TES, she leaps ahead of Meite, zooms past Helgasson, surpasses Gold, overtakes Sotnikova, bests Sukuki, edges Asada, Wagner, Osmond... She's in third 0.13 points behind Kim and 0.21 points behind the leader, Murakami.

On the PCSs side, without the disruptive fall her scores rise from mid-sixes to mid-sevens (as she attained in the LP). This gives her aa boost of 4 points in PCS. She beats Meite, Helgasson, Gold, Sotnikova, Suzuki, Osmond, Murakami... she's fourth in PCS behind only Asada, Wagner, and Kim.

She matched that with a fourth place (in real life) finish in the LP, with TES second behind Kim, beating Kostner and Asada in TES.

All she needs is a rule change to give a bonus for "totally delightful" and she's in like Flynn. :yes:

Li is going to surpass Gracie on TES? Li has neither the speed nor power or height that Gracie gets on her jumps and Gracie does some of the hardest jumps in the world right now.

gmyers · Jun 23, 2013

pangtongfan said:
At Worlds Osmond had bigger mistakes than Sotnikova and still beat her. Basically almost everyone who beat her had alot of mistakes, and it was not like she was disaesterous there, just her usual issues with URs and flutzing mostly. Tuktamysheva would have scored about the same as Sotnikova in the LP at Europeans even without her singled flip, and beat her when both were clean in the short at Nationals. I think in general Sotnikova is quite overrated, and the only reason I would give her a decent placement if all were clean at the Olympics (which wont happen so it is almost a silly discussion) is it being in Russia. I think in Russia a clean Sotnikova would be very close with a clean Wagner, clean Suzuki, and clean Gold if all are clean (unless Wagner gets a solid 3-3 in which case she pulls clear of that group); but outside of Russia she for sure would lose to all of those 3 and possibly Murakami, Osmond, and her own teammate in that scenario. That is even discounting her massive consistency issues.

I also agree that atleast one of Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will miss the Olympic team. I fully expect Lipnitskaia to make it. She handles pressure and skates cleanly much more regularly than Sotnikova and Tuks do. One of Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will probably take the other spot, but I wouldnt be shocked if someone else knocked them off and neither made it.

But a big problem was that Tarasova has decided to stick her head in the sand and pretend Sotnikova doesn't have huge Flip problems and decided to attach a three jump combo to one of her flips in the FS and in the worlds fs she missed her second flip - as anyone should expect she would at this point and she lost out on her three jump combo as well as all her flutzing and URing triple toes! So Even if you want to avoid flutzing as much as possible I don't understand how any coach could send a skater out knowing that if you give them two flips they are guaranteed to miss one and in sotnikova's case that means missing 2 jumps of a 3 jump combo? And that is with an insane and ridiculous 5/2 jump layout!

TontoK · Jun 23, 2013

Chances are that at least one of the ladies in this batch will make the podium, and it's possible that one of them may win gold.

1992: Kurt Browning's coronation as Olympic Champion. Uh... Petrenko, Wylie, and someone else who wasn't supposed to be there.

1994: The showdown! Browning and Boitano! Uh... Urmanov. Yeah everyone had him picked.

1998: Michelle Kwan delivers two of the most exquisite programs in history at US Nat's, and loses Olympic Gold... although in this case, the only difference is that the predicted gold and silver medalists were flipped... not a huge upset.

2002: I know everyone predicted Sarah Hughes...

A LOT can happen. Someone can have the skate of a lifetime. The favorites can fall under the pressure.

drivingmissdaisy · Jun 23, 2013

gmyers said:
I think it's very possible that even if sotnikova and Adelina are beaten at nationals and don't qualify for euros they will be sent to euros anyway and if they recover and beat the person who Beat them at nationals at euros they will be sent to the Olympics. I think two euros spots are reserved for sotnikova and tuktamisheva but not Olympic spots. Hopefully that's not the case! Like if Liza places poorly at nationals because of a bad sp or sotnikova because of a bad lp they will find some way to get them to euros or Olympics. I know a lot of people say Julia doesn't even have a shot which is amazing but if the two worlds 2013 bombers bomb in 2014 why such goodwill for them?

Well the good thing is Julia will have an opportunity to skate twice in the Grand Prix to assess how she scores against an international field. The problem is she gets no GOE whatsoever on her jumps when she competes against top senior skaters. Here are the protocols from TEB and CoC long programs:

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpfra2012/gpfra2012_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpchn2012/gpchn2012_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

She skated reasonably well at these events, had a high base value, and rotated 6 triples but still did not break 120. Liza has gotten 130 in a LP skating against Caro, and Sotnikova can score in the 120s with errors. Not being able to get almost any GOE in 7 jumping passes will make it difficult for Julia, so she has so much work to do on improving her jumps to get GOE.

ForeverFish · Jun 23, 2013

TontoK said:
Chances are that at least one of the ladies in this batch will make the podium, and it's possible that one of them may win gold.

1992: Kurt Browning's coronation as Olympic Champion. Uh... Petrenko, Wylie, and someone else who wasn't supposed to be there.

1994: The showdown! Browning and Boitano! Uh... Urmanov. Yeah everyone had him picked.

1998: Michelle Kwan delivers two of the most exquisite programs in history at US Nat's, and loses Olympic Gold... although in this case, the only difference is that the predicted gold and silver medalists were flipped... not a huge upset.

2002: I know everyone predicted Sarah Hughes...

A LOT can happen. Someone can have the skate of a lifetime. The favorites can fall under the pressure.

I guess you could add 2006 to the list -- Sasha Cohen was, if not the favorite to win, then the most likely. It was supposed to be a fight between her and Irina Slutskaya, until Shizuka Arakawa showed up and blew everyone away.

However, the situation may be different this time in that Kim, Kostner, and Asada are, beyond reasonable contention, the best in the world. I don't think Kim has ever cracked under pressure (at least, not to the extent that she fell off the podium); her cool temperament really is incredible. Asada and Kostner are more vulnerable to faltering, especially now that people are expecting them to medal. But even if one or more of the other girls had the skate of a lifetime, it's hard to imagine it being enough to overtake one of these three. It's been a long time since the sport has had such a total monopoly on the three medals. Even Sarah Hughes, the "flash in the pan" champion, had a World medal to her name before SLC, an accomplishment that none of 4th-10th at 2013 Worlds can boast.

If anyone can upset one of the Big 3, I'd put my money on Wagner or Suzuki. But we've seen this season that those two can be hot and cold without warning...

Mathman · Jun 23, 2013

Jammers said:
Li is going to surpass Gracie on TES? Li has neither the speed nor power or height that Gracie gets on her jumps and Gracie does some of the hardest jumps in the world right now.

2013 worlds LP TES:

Li 69.21
Gold 65.22

SP TES:

Li:30.76
Gold: 30.23

ForeverFish · Jun 23, 2013

Mathman said:
2013 worlds LP TES:

Li 69.21
Gold 65.22

SP TES:

Li:30.76
Gold: 30.23

I think Jammers was suggesting that Li will not surpass Gold in TES if both are clean, an assessment I agree with. A clean Gold can be beat by Yuna Kim, but that's pretty much it.

ETA: Li was simply a superstar in the FS; Gold was flawed. In the SP, Li received a downgrade and -GOE on one element, while Gold received a downgrade and -GOE on three elements (and the space wherein is only 0.50 points). It's not quite as fair a comparison, IMO, as it would be if we had access to perfect competitions from both.

OS · Jun 23, 2013

ForeverFish said:
I think Jammers was suggesting that Li will not surpass Gracie in TES if both are clean, an assessment I agree with.

Except Li was undermarked in PCS all season and she faces the difference of coming from a weak federation as a newbie on the scene. Her newbie score was very much like how Hanyu was perceived in his first season without half of the hype he has been given (some by me :biggrin:

). If she go consistent next season, her PCS should climb as she was undoubtly the new break through star of 2013. Plus China... the new Japan for Asia market (esp after Mao/Kanako/Suzuki all retire after Sochi) might buy her some brownie points and good will from ISU. If Asia need a new star after the Japanese, Korean are gone... they should look towards China!

TontoK · Jun 23, 2013

Thanks, ForeverFish. You're right about Arakawa; I don't know how I forgot that.

In guessing who might upend the Top 3, my money is on Gold.

If she skates clean technically, she is capable of electrifying TES. In addition, working with Zueva certainly won't do her PCS any harm. I'm very interested in seeing a new look from her once the season gets underway. I just don't think Wagner has enough technical to get the job done, although she's capable. Of your two choices, I think Suzuki is the most likely.

ForeverFish · Jun 23, 2013

os168 said:
Except Li is undermarked in PCS all season and she faces the difference of coming from a weak federation as a newbie on the scene. Her newbie score very much like how Hanyu was perceived in his first season. If she go consistent next season, her PCS should climb as she was undoubtly the new break through star of 2013. Plus China... the new Japan for Asia market (esp after Mao/Kanako/Suzuki all retire after Sochi) might buy her some brownie points and good will from ISU. If Asia need a new star after the Japanese, Korean are gone... they should look towards China!

We were purely considering TES, though.

Anyway, I don't find anything particularly unjust about Li's PCS. She isn't as fast across the ice as most of the other ladies (the Big 3, Wagner, Murakami, Gold, Suzuki, and Sotnikova), and her skating skills are just above average. I could see a case being made for her receiving higher scores in P/E and IN, but even then, I'd have a hard time putting her any closer to the Big 3, or even to Suzuki, Wagner, and Murakami.

gmyers · Jun 23, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
Well the good thing is Julia will have an opportunity to skate twice in the Grand Prix to assess how she scores against an international field. The problem is she gets no GOE whatsoever on her jumps when she competes against top senior skaters. Here are the protocols from TEB and CoC long programs:

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpfra2012/gpfra2012_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpchn2012/gpchn2012_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

She skated reasonably well at these events, had a high base value, and rotated 6 triples but still did not break 120. Liza has gotten 130 in a LP skating against Caro, and Sotnikova can score in the 120s with errors. Not being able to get almost any GOE in 7 jumping passes will make it difficult for Julia, so she has so much work to do on improving her jumps to get GOE.

I don't believe that Julia would make the team based on GOE from jumps just totally benefit from the frequent collapses of both Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva. So if all three of them went to Euros and Liza did so badly in the SP she didn't make the free skate or placed below 10th then I would think she goes to Sochi! If Sotnikova misses 2 out of 3 flips which she has done and flutzes and urs and falls then Julia can beat her too. No one is talking about what Sotnikova is doing to fix her flips or what her programs will look like and if she decides two flutzes is better than maybe 2 flips in a FS. When Liza and Adelina and Julia all compete together Julia could easily wind up winning or getting the highest score because of Adelina and Liza's tremendous and continuing problems which really are worse than any Julia problem that one could think of.

Jammers · Jun 23, 2013

No one knows how Julia will skate this year. She's at that age when Adelina and Tuk started to really struggle.

Serious Business · Jun 23, 2013

Doesn't matter. Two battle-hardened Russian women will make it out of the war, and at least one of them will contend for the podium.

gmyers · Jun 23, 2013

Jammers said:
No one knows how Julia will skate this year. She's at that age when Adelina and Tuk started to really struggle.

No one really knows how Liza or Adelina will skate either! Lol all that is there to predict are their last performances of last season and Julia was the best. If Julia struggles Liza and Adelina could struggle worse for whatever reason on top of their already existing problems.

gmyers · Jun 23, 2013

Serious Business said:
Doesn't matter. Two battle-hardened Russian women will make it out of the war, and at least one of them will contend for the podium.

It would be good if age eligible skaters provide the good competition and not ineligible ones! Because being beaten by radionova wouldn't mean anything! She's not eligible!

The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

pangtongfan

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ForeverFish

OS

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Jammers

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TontoK

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drivingmissdaisy

ForeverFish

Mathman

ForeverFish

OS

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Serious Business

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